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How many Russians have died in Ukraine? Data shows what Moscow hides

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How many Russians have died in Ukraine? Data shows what Moscow hides

BRUSSELS (AP) — Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead.

Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.

To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal.

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FILE - President Joe Biden, left, walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of a working session on Ukraine during the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, on May 21, 2023. Russia's war on Ukraine will top the agenda when U.S. President Joe Biden and his NATO counterparts meet in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

NATO leaders are set to make a new defense spending pledge at their summit this week as support for Ukraine eats into their military budgets.

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Myanmar’s prolonged civil strife, tensions in the disputed South China Sea and concern over arms buildups in the region are expected to dominate the agenda when Southeast Asia’s top diplomats gather for talks this week in Indonesia.

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Rescuers in central China are looking for seven people missing in a landslide triggered by torrential rains while employers across much of China have been ordered to limit outdoor work due to scorching temperatures as the country struggles with heat, flooding and drought.

Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each is at pains to amplify the other side’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers. Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media, activists and independent journalists say. Documenting the dead has become an act of defiance, and those who do so face harassment and potential criminal charges.

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Despite such challenges, Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service, working with a network of volunteers, have used social media postings and photographs of cemeteries across Russia to build a database of confirmed war deaths. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 dead Russian soldiers.

“These are only soldiers who we know by name, and their deaths in each case are verified by multiple sources,” said Dmitry Treshchanin, an editor at Mediazona who helped oversee the investigation. “The estimate we did with Meduza allows us to see the ‘hidden’ deaths, deaths the Russian government is so obsessively and unsuccessfully trying to hide.”

To come up with a more comprehensive tally, journalists from Mediazona and Meduza obtained records of inheritance cases filed with the Russian authorities. Their data from the National Probate Registry contained information about more than 11 million people who died between 2014 and May 2023.

According to their analysis, 25,000 more inheritance cases were opened in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49 than expected. By May 27, 2023, the number of excess cases had shot up to 47,000.

That surge is roughly in line with a May assessment by the White House that more than 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December, though lower than U.S. and U.K. intelligence assessments of overall Russian deaths.

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In February, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. A leaked assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency put the number of Russians killed in action in the first year of the war at 35,000 to 43,000.

“Their figures might be accurate, or they might not be,” Treshchanin, the Mediazona editor, said in an email. “Even if they have sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense, its own data could be incomplete. It’s extremely difficult to pull together all of the casualties from the army, Rosgvardia, Akhmat battalion, various private military companies, of which Wagner is the largest, but not the only one. Casualties among inmates, first recruited by Wagner and now by the MoD, are also a very hazy subject, with a lot of potential for manipulation. Statistics could actually give better results.”

Independently, Dmitry Kobak, a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University who has published work on excess COVID-19 deaths in Russia, obtained mortality data broken down by age and sex for 2022 from Rosstat, Russia’s official statistics agency.

He found that 24,000 more men under age 50 died in 2022 than expected, a figure that aligns with the analysis of inheritance data.

The COVID-19 pandemic made it harder to figure out how many men would have died in Russia since February 2022 if there hadn’t been a war. Both analyses corrected for the lingering effects of COVID on mortality by indexing male death rates against female deaths.

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Sergei Scherbov, a scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, cautioned that “differences in the number of deaths between males and females can vary significantly due to randomness alone.”

“I am not saying that there couldn’t be an excess number of male deaths, but rather that statistically speaking, this difference in deaths could be a mere outcome of chance,” he said.

Russians who are missing but not officially recognized as dead, as well as citizens of Ukraine fighting in units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, are not included in these counts.

Kobak acknowledged that some uncertainties remain, especially for deaths of older men. Moreover, it’s hard to know how many missing Russian soldiers are actually dead. But he said neither factor is likely to have a huge impact.

“That uncertainty is in the thousands,” he said. “The results are plausible overall.”

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Meduza is an independent Russian media outlet that has been operating in exile for eight years, with headquarters in Riga, Latvia. In April 2021, Russian authorities designated Meduza a “foreign agent,” making it harder to generate advertising income, and in January 2023, the Kremlin banned Meduza as an illegal “undesirable organization.”

Moscow has also labeled independent outlet Mediazona as a “foreign agent” and blocked its website after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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France election: political leaders react to upset result

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France election: political leaders react to upset result
Following are reactions to the upset results of France’s parliamentary election on Sunday. The country was on course for a hung parliament with the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coming first, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists and the far-right National Rally (RN), according to pollsters’ projections based on early results from a sample of polling stations.
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French elections: Riots erupt after left-wing coalition projected to win plurality of seats

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French elections: Riots erupt after left-wing coalition projected to win plurality of seats

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Crowds of protesters and celebrators flooded the streets of Paris as French election results began pouring in on Sunday.

On Sunday, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his intent to resign after a far-left political coalition was poised to win a plurality of French parliamentary seats. The coalition had unexpectedly assembled before the snap elections began.

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Tens of thousands of left-wing demonstrators gathered in Paris’s Place de la République on Sunday night to celebrate the news. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is projected to take second place.

The results were a huge upset for conservatives in France, who had hoped that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally would take power. 

FRENCH PM TO RESIGN AS LEFTISTS NAB PLURALITY OF PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IN SNAP ELECTION

Riots broke out in Paris as election results began rolling in. (Reuters)

Social media footage shows massive bonfires in Parisian streets as authorities confronted demonstrators while wearing riot gear. 

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Tear gas was released as rowdy protesters were arrested. Protesters were also recorded throwing Molotov cocktails in the streets and setting off smoke bombs.

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French police near fire

Demonstrators started bonfires and threw Molotov cocktails in apparent support of France’s left-wing coalition. (Reuters)

The left-wing coalition, which is called the Popular Front, is made up of France’s Socialist Party, the French Communist Party, a green political party called the Ecologists and France Unbowed.

The bloc has pledged to institute a number of measures if elected, including scrapping Macron’s pension reform and working towards establishing “a right to retire” at 60 years old.

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French police reacting to fire

French police wore riot gear while handling the protests. (Reuters)

The coalition also pledges to increase wages for public sector employees, establish a wealth tax and raise France’s minimum wage.

Reuters and Fox News Digital’s Greg Wehner contributed to this report.

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Israeli army used Hannibal Directive during October 7 Hamas attack: Report

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Israeli army used Hannibal Directive during October 7 Hamas attack: Report

The Israeli army ordered the Hannibal Directive – a controversial Israeli military policy aimed at preventing the capture of Israeli soldiers by enemy forces at any cost – on October 7 last year, an investigation by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz has revealed.

In a report on Sunday, the newspaper, based on testimonies of Israeli soldiers and senior army officers, said that during Hamas’s unprecedented attack last October, the Israeli army started making decisions with limited and unverified information, and issued an order that “not a single vehicle can return to Gaza”.

“At this point, the [Israeli army] was not aware of the extent of kidnapping along the Gaza border, but it did know that many people were involved. Thus, it was entirely clear what that message meant, and what the fate of some of the kidnapped people would be,” the report said.

On October 7, Hamas captured dozens of Israelis, many of whom are still in captivity or have been killed in Israeli air strikes on Gaza, according to the Palestinian armed group. But many of those captured were civilians and not soldiers, to whom the Hannibal Directive does not apply.

The death toll in Israel from the Hamas-led attacks is estimated to be 1,139, while nearly 250 others were taken as captives, Israeli authorities say. Meanwhile, more than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7, according to an Al Jazeera tally based on official statistics.

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While Haaertz said it was not aware how many soldiers and civilians were hit due to the Hannibal military procedure, it added that “the cumulative data indicates that many of the kidnapped people were at risk, exposed to Israeli gunfire, even if they were not the target”.

The report said the Hannibal protocol “was employed at three army facilities infiltrated by Hamas” and “this did not prevent the kidnapping of seven of them [soldiers] or the killing of 15 other spotters, as well as 38 other soldiers”.

What is the Hannibal Directive?

The Hannibal Directive, also known as the Hannibal Procedure or Hannibal Protocol, is an Israeli military policy that stipulates the use of maximum force in the event of a soldier being kidnapped, Yehuda Shaul, a former Israeli army soldier, had told Al Jazeera in November of last year.

“You will open fire without constraints, in order to prevent the abduction,” he said, adding that the use of force is carried out even at the risk of killing a captive soldier.

In addition to firing at the abductors, soldiers can fire at junctions, roads, highways and other pathways opponents may take a kidnapped soldier through, Shaul added.

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Israel last invoked the Hannibal Directive in 2014 during its war on Gaza that year, according to leaked military audio recordings, though the Israeli army denied it had used the doctrine.

Dozens of Palestinians were killed in the Israeli bombardment that followed, sparking accusations of war crimes against the Israeli army.

The directive is believed to have been revoked in 2016, though it is unclear what led to its annulment. A report by Israel’s state comptroller also recommended the army abolish the directive because of the criticism it received as well as because of its various interpretations by those in the army, Haaretz said.

According to Haaretz’s investigation, a senior Israeli army source also confirmed the Hannibal procedure was “employed on October 7”. The source said post-war investigations would reveal who gave the order.

Meanwhile, an Israeli army spokesperson told the newspaper that the army “has begun conducting internal investigations of what transpired on October 7 and the preceding period”.

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“The aim of these investigations is to learn and to draw lessons which could be used in continuing the battle. When these investigations are concluded, the results will be presented to the public with transparency,” the spokesperson said, according to the Israeli newspaper.

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