World
How a crowded GOP field could help Trump in 2024 campaign
NEW YORK (AP) — As he considers one other White Home run, polls present former President Donald Trump is the most well-liked determine within the Republican Occasion. However it wasn’t all the time that approach.
Competing at one level towards a dozen rivals for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, Trump received solely a few third of the vote in key early states. He even misplaced the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the nomination course of.
However he was in a position to prevail nonetheless as a result of these within the social gathering who opposed his model of divisive politics had been by no means in a position to coalesce round a single rival to confront him. And with Trump mulling one other White Home bid as quickly as this summer time, the identical dynamic might repeat.
With a rising listing of candidates gearing up for their very own presidential runs, even a Trump diminished by two impeachments and mounting authorized vulnerabilities might maintain a commanding place in a fractured, multi-candidate GOP main.
“I concern it might find yourself the identical approach as 2016, which mainly was everybody thought everybody else ought to get out,” mentioned Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, who suggested former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s marketing campaign that yr. “I feel each main candidate realized that she or he would have a greater shot towards Trump one-on-one. However after all every particular person thought she or he ought to be the one to get that shot and no person obtained out of the way in which. … After which it was too late.”
The nervousness is mounting as a rising listing of potential rivals take more and more brazen steps, delivering high-profile speeches, working advertisements, courting donors and making repeat visits to early voting states.
That group now consists of upward of a dozen could-be-candidates, together with Trump’s former Vice President, Mike Pence, his former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and Sens. Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Rick Scot, and Tim Scott, all of whom might run on the previous president’s insurance policies. Within the anti-Trump lane, figures like Rep. Liz Cheney and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan are elevating their profiles.
In the meantime, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is more and more seen as Trump’s inheritor obvious, even by the previous president’s most loyal supporters, and seen by Trump allies as his most formidable potential challenger.
Whereas some, like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have mentioned they won’t problem Trump if he does go ahead with a run, others, like Christie, appear to be gunning for the battle, even when they appear to be longshot contenders.
“I’m positively giving it severe thought. I’m not gonna make any determination most likely till the tip of the yr,” Christie mentioned in a latest interview.
The previous governor and 2016 candidate has urged the social gathering to maneuver on from Trump and his ongoing obsession with the 2020 election.
“For me, it’s in regards to the social gathering needing to go in in a brand new path from a character perspective, and to proceed to have somebody who can deliver sturdy management, powerful management, that the nation wants, however doesn’t have the entire different drama that goes together with it,” he mentioned. “I’m listening to the identical issues from donors that I’m listening to from voters — that they’re very involved that we are able to’t put ourselves ready to have 2024 be about something however the good of the nation.”
Pompeo, who has had a busy journey schedule and plans to return to Iowa this summer time, mentioned in a latest interview that he has been spending time studying and listening to former President Ronald Reagan’s speeches as he prepares for a doable run.
“We’re on the point of keep within the battle,” he mentioned in an interview final month as he courted evangelical Christians at a gathering in Nashville, Tennessee.
He mentioned he and his spouse would sit down after the midterm elections and “suppose our approach via it, pray our approach via it, and resolve the place’s finest to serve. It could possibly be presenting ourselves for elected workplace once more. We might select a distinct path. However we’re not gonna stroll away from these items that I’ve been engaged on for 30 years now. They matter an excessive amount of.”
Within the meantime, he sketched out a doable lane in a lot the identical mildew as Trump.
“He was a disruptor that was most important in 2016, there’s little question about that,” Pompeo mentioned. And now the duty is to take these set of understandings, these set of rules, and defend them and construct upon them. And it’s gonna take lots of work to try this, leaders of actual fortitude and character to try this.”
The more and more open speak comes as Trump faces a cascade of escalating authorized troubles.
The congressional committee investigating the lethal Jan. 6 rebel has revealed more and more damaging details about Trump’s ultimate weeks in workplace, whereas the Division of Justice has launched its personal sprawling probe. In Georgia, the prosecutor investigating Trump’s doubtlessly unlawful meddling within the state’s 2020 election final week ramped up her efforts by subpoenaing members of Trump’s inside circle. And in New York, Trump, his namesake son and his daughter Ivanka have agreed to reply questions beneath oath starting subsequent week within the New York lawyer common’s civil investigation into his enterprise practices.
Mick Mulvaney, a former South Carolina congressman who served as Trump’s appearing White Home chief of employees, mentioned the strikes urged potential candidates “would possibly see a gap the place none existed two months in the past.”
“Trump fatigue is likely to be an actual factor,” he mentioned, with voters asking themselves whether or not, in the event that they vote for an additional candidate, they “can get the identical insurance policies with out all the luggage.”
On the identical time, Trump has seen a few of his endorsed main candidates falter. Those that have received, together with Ohio GOP Senate nominee JD Vance and Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Oz, have accomplished so with about 30% of the vote, which means that two-thirds of social gathering voters went towards Trump’s picks.
“I don’t suppose anyone underestimates Trump. There’s a motive he’s probably the most sought-after endorsement in each single Republican main,” mentioned GOP strategist Alex Conant. “That mentioned, I feel there’s a recognition that lots of Republican voters wish to the longer term and prepared for what’s subsequent.”
To what extent stays an open query. Throughout a visit to Iowa this week, Arkansas Sen. Cotton declined to weigh in on Trump’s standing. However he mentioned he hoped to be “an efficient nationwide chief, not just for my social gathering however for the American folks in my position within the Senate and some other future position I’d serve.”
Nonetheless, he argued, candidates ought to embrace Trump’s legacy.
“I do know that Donald Trump could be very common amongst our voters who recognize the successes he delivered for 4 years in a really hostile surroundings. They don’t need Republicans who’re working towards that legacy, as a result of they view that legacy as an excellent success,” he mentioned Thursday in Cambridge, Iowa.
In the meantime, Trump continues to maneuver ahead along with his personal occasions.
On Friday night time, he campaigned in Las Vegas alongside Adam Laxalt, his decide for Nevada Senate. And on Saturday night time, he’ll maintain a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, to marketing campaign with Republican Kelly Tshibaka, whom he has endorsed in her race towards U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, and others, together with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who’s now working for Congress.
Conant mentioned it made sense for candidates to proceed testing the waters for now.
“Numerous potential candidates are realizing that 2024 could also be their final finest likelihood, no matter what Trump does,” he mentioned. “There’s a really weak Democrat within the White Home, Republicans appear more likely to win, and if it’s not Trump, they’re mainly sidelined for the subsequent 10 years.”
Nonetheless, Conant, who served as communications director to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential bid, famous the similarities.
“It appears prefer it’s more and more clear there’s going to be lots of people working for president. And whereas I feel there’s an urge for food for one thing completely different, the choice to Trump must coalesce round one candidate,” he mentioned. “That by no means occurred in 2016. And it may not occur in 2024.”
__ Related Press writers Steve Peoples in New York and Tom Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed to this report.
World
Israel keeping its ‘eyes open’ for Iranian attacks during Trump transition period, ambassador says
Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is keeping its “eyes open” for any potential aggression from Iran during the Trump transition period, adding it would be a “mistake” for the Islamic Republic to carry out an attack.
The comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed earlier this week that Iran would retaliate against Israel for the strategic airstrikes it carried out against Tehran on Oct. 26. Araghchi was quoted in Iranian media saying “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.”
“I would advise him not to challenge us. We have already shown our capabilities. We have proved that they are vulnerable. We can actually target any location in Iran. They know that,” Danon told Fox News Digital.
“So I would advise them not to make that mistake. If they think that now, because of the transition period, they can take advantage of it, they are wrong,” he added. “We are keeping our eyes open and we are ready for all scenarios.”
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Danon says he believes one of the most important challenges for the incoming Trump administration will be the way the U.S. deals with Iran.
“Regarding the new administration, I think the most important challenge will be the way you challenge Iran, the aggression, the threat of the Iranian regime. I believe that the U.S. will have to go back to a leading position on this issue,” he told Fox News Digital.
“We are fighting the same enemies, the enemies of the United States of America. When you look at the Iranians, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, all those bad actors that are coming against Israel… that is the enemy of the United States. So I think every American should support us and understand what we are doing now,” Danon also said.
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Danon spoke as the U.S. vetoed a draft resolution against Israel at the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday.
The resolution, which was overseen by Algeria, sought an “immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire” to be imposed on Israel. The resolution did not guarantee the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas within Gaza.
“It was a shameful resolution because… it didn’t have the linkage between the cease-fire and the call [for] the release of the hostages. And I want to thank the United States for taking a strong position and vetoing this resolution,” Danon said. “I think it sent a very clear message that the U.S. stands with its strongest ally with Israel. And, you know, it was shameful, too, to hear the voices of so many ambassadors speaking about a cease-fire but abandoning the 101 hostages. We will not forget them. We will never abandon them. We will continue to fight until we bring all of them back home.”
Fox News’ Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report.
World
Fact-check: What do we know about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
Moscow has lowered the bar for using nuclear weapons and fired a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead into Ukraine, heightening tensions with the West.
Russia’s nuclear arsenal is under fresh scrutiny after an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying an atomic warhead was fired into Ukrainian territory.
President Vladimir Putin says the unprecedented attack using the so-called “Oreshnik” missile is a direct response to Ukraine’s use of US and UK-made missiles to strike targets deep in Russian territory.
He has also warned that the military facilities of Western countries allowing Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russia could become targets.
The escalation comes days after the Russian President approved small but significant changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine, which would allow a nuclear response to a conventional, non-nuclear attack on Russian territory.
While Western officials, including US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, have dismissed the notion that Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons is imminent, experts warn that recent developments could increase the possibility of nuclear weapons use.
Here’s what we know about Russia’s inventory of atomic weapons.
How big is Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
Russia holds more nuclear warheads than any other nation at an estimated 5,580, which amounts to 47% of global stockpiles, according to data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
But only an estimated 1,710 of those weapons are deployed, a fraction more than the 1,670 deployed by the US.
Both nations have the necessary nuclear might to destroy each other several times over, and considerably more atomic warheads than the world’s seven other nuclear nations: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom.
Of Moscow’s deployed weapons, an estimated 870 are on land-based ballistic missiles, 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and potentially 200 at heavy bomber bases.
According to FAS, there are no signs Russia is significantly scaling up its nuclear arsenal, but the federation does warn of a potential surge in the future as the country replaces single-warhead missiles with those capable of carrying multiple warheads.
Russia is also steadily modernising its nuclear arsenal.
What could trigger a Russian nuclear response?
Moscow’s previous 2020 doctrine stated that its nuclear weapons could be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction “when the very existence of the state is put under threat.”
Now, the conditions under which a nuclear response could be launched have changed in three crucial ways:
- Russia will consider using nuclear weapons in the case of a strike on its territory using conventional weapons, such as cruise missiles, drones and tactical aircraft.
- It could launch a nuclear attack in response to an aggression by a non-nuclear state acting “with the participation or support of a nuclear state”, as is the case for Ukraine.
- Moscow will also apply the same conditions to an attack on Belarus’ territory, in agreement with President Lukashenko.
Is there a rising nuclear threat?
The size of the world’s nuclear stockpiles has rapidly decreased amid the post-Cold War détente. The Soviet Union had some 40,000 warheads, and the US around 30,000, when stockpiles peaked during the 1960s and 70s.
But FAS warns that while the overall number is still in decline, operational warheads are on the rise once again. More countries are also upgrading their missiles to deploy multiple warheads.
“In nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces,” Hans M. Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said in June this year.
Is the West reacting?
When Putin approved the updated nuclear protocol last week, many Western leaders dismissed it as sabre rattling.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Germany and its partners would “not be intimidated” and accused Putin of “playing with our fear.”
But since Russia used a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in an attack on Dnipro, European leaders have raised the alarm.
“The last few dozen hours have shown that the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday.
According to Dutch media reports, NATO’s secretary-general Mark Rutte is in Florida to urgently meet President-elect Donald Trump, potentially to discuss the recent escalation.
NATO and Ukraine will hold an extraordinary meeting in Brussels next Tuesday to discuss the situation and the possible allied reaction, according to Euronews sources.
World
Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Rental homes will remain an attractive option next year to would-be homebuyers sidelined by high mortgage rates and rising home prices, analysts say.
American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes are two big real estate investment trusts poised to benefit from the trend, say analysts at Mizuho Securities USA and Raymond James & Associates.
Their outlooks boil down to a simple thesis: Many Americans will continue to have a difficult time finding a single-family home that they can afford to buy, which will make renting a house an attractive alternative.
It starts with mortgage rates. While the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September, it’s been mostly rising since then, echoing moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The yield, which has hovered around 4.4% this week, surged after the presidential election, reflecting expectations among investors that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies may widen the federal deficit and crank up inflation.
Analysts at Raymond James and Associates say they see mortgage rates remaining “higher for longer,” given the outcome of the election. Last week, they reiterated their “Outperform” ratings on American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes, noting “we are increasingly confident in the longer-term outlook for single-family rental fundamentals and the industry’s growth prospects.”
They also believe the two companies will continue to benefit from “outsized demographic demand for suburban homes,” and the monthly payment gap between renting and owning a home, which they estimate can be as much as 30% less to rent.
Analysts at Mizuho also expect that homeownership affordability hurdles will maintain “a supportive backdrop” and stoke demand for rental houses, helping American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes to maintain their tenant retention rates.
The companies are averaging higher new and renewal tenant lease rates when compared to several of the largest U.S. apartment owners, including AvalonBay, Equity Residential and Camden Property Trust, according to Mizuho. It has an “Outperform” rating on American Homes 4 Rent and a “Neutral” rating on Invitation Homes.
Shares in Invitation Homes are down 1.2% so far this year, while American Homes 4 Rent is up 4.4%. That’s well below the S&P 500’s 24% gain in the same period.
While individual homeowners and mom-and-pop investors still account for the vast majority of single-family rental homes, homebuilders have stepped up construction of new houses planned for rental communities.
In the third quarter, builders broke ground on about 24,000 single-family homes slated to become rentals. That’s up from 17,000 a year earlier. In the second quarter, single-family rental starts climbed to 25,000, the highest quarterly total going back to at least 1990, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data by the National Association of Home Builders.
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