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Nevada third for federal oil potential in new study, but industry growth still unlikely

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Nevada third for federal oil potential in new study, but industry growth still unlikely


The federal government raised its estimate this week for how much oil and gas could be extracted from public lands in Nevada, placing the state third for oil potential.

Nevada holds 1.4 billion barrels of “undiscovered” oil beneath its public lands – only falling behind Alaska and New Mexico – and 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas, according to the newly compiled figures released by the U.S. Geological Survey last week.

“We think there’s resource potential there, and it just so happens there’s a lot of federal land,” said Chris Schenk, the lead author of the report.

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The estimates are of “technically recoverable oil and gas resources” — many of which may not be economically viable to extract — that could be retrieved with current technologies. It’s the first time the agency has tallied the amount of oil and gas under national parks, wilderness areas and other public lands nationwide since 1998, according to Nevada Current.

Technology has improved significantly since then, increasing the estimated resources that could potentially be extracted from public lands, according to the report.

The analysis was prepared in response to a directive by the Trump administration to “unleash” domestic energy supplies. In February, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum directed his agencies to identify energy and critical minerals on public lands.

“American Energy Dominance is more important than ever, and this report underscores the critical role science plays in informing our energy future,” Burgum said in a press release announcing the study.

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The report also comes as Republicans in Congress try to push a proposal that would allow the federal government to sell off several million acres of public land in Nevada, Utah and other Western states.

Nationally, the analysis estimated 29.4 billion barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas lie below all federal lands – enough oil to meet the county’s needs for four years and a dozen years in the case of natural gas.

The last federal analysis of undiscovered oil and gas resources on public lands in 1998, estimated about 7.8 billion barrels of oil and 201 trillion cubic feet of gas. 

Schenk, the lead author of the report, said the analysis uses decades of federal data to estimate the potential for oil and gas where it hasn’t been discovered yet, but there’s still room for “uncertainty.”

“Whenever you’re exploring for resources, whether it’s minerals or oil and gas, there’s uncertainty before you drill,” Schenk said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty, because it’s undiscovered.”

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That uncertainty is reflected in the lack of oil and gas leasing in Nevada, despite available data pointing to potential sources in the state.

Nevada lease sales have long drawn little interest from industry. It’s not uncommon for large swaths of nominated land to never get a bid.

For example, the Bureau of Land Management offered five oil and gas parcels in Nevada totaling 6,800 acres this week. None of the parcels received a single bid. Those same parcels also failed to attract any industry interest in 2023 and 2024.

“We recognize that interest in Nevada is lower than other states in the West where development is more economical, such as New Mexico and Wyoming. The scale of this auction, for instance, was small relative to others,” said Aaron Johnson, the vice president of public and legislative affairs for the Western Energy Alliance trade group.

When land does get leased for oil and gas development, it underperforms in auction. From 2015 to 2024, the average bid per acre in Nevada was just $4.10—compared to $4,900 per acre in New Mexico.

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Still, the Trump administration has pushed to lease more of Nevada’s public lands including 264,000 acres of public land in Elko County’s Ruby Mountains, a popular hunting and outdoor recreation site in Nevada. 

Drilling opponents remain skeptical that there’s much oil and gas in Nevada or that extracting it would make economic sense any time soon. They think the development push is rooted in speculation. 

“We’ve been leasing these low potential lands since the 1950s,” said Russell Kuhlman, the executive director of the Nevada Wildlife Federation. “We have yet to find anything that would get the oil and gas industry excited.”

Kuhlman said speculative oil and gas leasing in Nevada removes land that would be better suited for the recreation economy, wildlife conservation, or renewable energy development in the state.

Over 90 percent of public lands managed by the Interior Department in Nevada are available to be leased for oil and gas drilling. Once leased, public lands are locked up from being managed for multiple uses such as outdoor recreation and conservation for the life of the lease, which could be 10, 20 or even 30 years.

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“That’s really where the issue is, once land is identified as an oil and gas lease, it’s essentially put in that folder and forgotten about by the Bureau of Land Management,” Kuhlman said.



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River Festival, Brewfest, chalk art festival: 46 events this week

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River Festival, Brewfest, chalk art festival: 46 events this week


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Festival season is back in full force in northwestern Nevada.

The Reno River Festival is downtown this weekend, and so are the Biggest Little Skate Jam and the Legion Sports Fest. Carson City has a rib festival and a beer festival, Fallon is hosting a chalk art festival, and Truckee’s pride festival kicks off this Friday.

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And then there’s the jam-packed show schedule, with a Broadway tour visit by “Shucked” and appearances by Alabama Shakes, Colt Ford, Yellowcard, Brian Kilmeade and Kyle Gass Company.

In all, there are a whopping 46 unique events this week in the region. Here’s a look at the events, concerts and weather for the week of May 25-31, 2026.

Memorial Day events in Northern Nevada

Northern Nevada Veterans Memorial Day Ceremony, May 25: The Nevada Department of Veterans Services and the Nevada Veterans Coalition will hold a ceremony at 11 a.m. at the Northern Nevada Veterans Memorial Cemetery, 14 Veterans Way in Fernley. Volunteers are being sought to place flags at 8:30 a.m. on May 23. For details, visit veterans.nv.gov.

South Lake Tahoe American Legion Memorial Day Ceremony, May 25: American Legion Post 795 will conduct a Memorial Day observance from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Monday. It’s also seeking volunteers for flag placement on Friday and flag removal on Tuesday. It’s at 2748 Young St. in South Lake Tahoe, California. For details, visit visitlaketahoe.com.

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Memorial Day | Remember and Honor, May 25: Scout Troop 266 hosts this observance from 5 to 6 p.m. at Trails End Cemetery, 520 Fairway Drive in Tahoe City, California. For details, visit tahoeeventscalendar.com.

Reno-Tahoe events, May 25-31

Rockin’ Ribfest, May 25: Start your summer with a plateful of ribs, and check out the arts and crafts vendors, live music, beer garden and more. It’s happening from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. at Casino Fandango, 3800 S. Carson St. in Carson City. For details, visit casinofandango.com.

“Last Lists of My Mad Mother,” May 25: Dot’s the primary caregiver for Ma, who’s battling Alzheimer’s, while Sis chimes in from afar. This theatrical work wraps up Monday at 6:30 p.m. at Restless Artists Theatre, 295 20th St. in Sparks. For details and tickets, visit rattheatre.com.

Reno Aces vs. Sacramento River Cats, May 26-31: Reno’s Minor League Baseball team hosts the top affiliate of the San Francisco Giants in a six-game set. Highlights include Princess Night and postgame fireworks on Friday, Harry Potter Night on Saturday and $1.50 hot dogs on Sunday. Games are at Greater Nevada Field, 250 Evans Ave. For details and tickets, visit renoaces.com.

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Cirque Alice, May 26-31: The spring/summer variety show for the Eldorado combines acrobatics, dance and music for a retelling of “Alice in Wonderland.” Performances start at 7 p.m. Tuesdays through Thursdays, 8:30 p.m. Fridays and Saturdays, and 5 p.m. Saturdays and Sundays at the Showroom, Eldorado Resort Casino, 345 N. Virginia St. Tickets are $25-$75. Details at caesars.com/silver-legacy-reno.

“Shucked,” May 26-31: The Tony Award-winning musical comedy about a farming community grappling with a crop failure will pay a six-day, eight-performance visit to the Pioneer Center for the Performing Arts, 100 S. Virginia St. For details, visit pioneercenter.com.

P.U.N.K. Poetry Slam, May 26: Good Luck Macbeth hosts this monthly poetry slam event, presented by Poetry Under No King. It starts at 7 p.m. at 124 W. Taylor St. For details and tickets, visit renolittletheater.org.

“The Lark,” May 27-31: This dramatization of the life of Joan of Arc wraps up this week at Brüka Theatre with five performances — 7:30 p.m. Wednesday through Saturday, and 2 p.m. Sunday. It’s at 99 N. Virginia St. For details and tickets, visit bruka.org.

Truckee Pride Week, May 29-June 7: A week-plus of events begins Friday night, with this weekend’s events including fashion making, a hike through Shirley Canyon and a 5K fun run. For the full schedule and details, visit truckeepride.org.

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Reno River Festival, May 29-31: Both local and national artists of varied genres are part of this festival every year. Headliners include two national alternative rock bands: The Calling on Friday and Everclear on Saturday. It takes place at 1 p.m. Friday and 10 a.m. Saturday and Sunday at Idlewild Park, 2055 Idlewild Drive. Passes range from $20 for all three days to $200 for a VIP three-day pass. Details at renoriverfestival.com.

“Sweat,” May 29-31: It’s the debut weekend for this Pulitzer Prize-winning play about friends and co-workers facing factory layoffs and picket lines. It’s happening at Reno Little Theater, 147 E. Pueblo St. For details and tickets, visit renolittletheater.org.

Reno-Tahoe Odyssey, May 29-30: Running teams will tackle a 178-mile loop from downtown Reno, through Truckee, around the west shore of Lake Tahoe, through Carson City and Virginia City during this round-the-clock footrace. For details, visit renotahoeodyssey.com.

Fallon Chalk Festival, May 29-30: Fallon’s inaugural chalk festival is set for this weekend, with activities including a Sunday color run, face painting, poetry and literary activities — and, of course, chalk art along Maine Street. For details and locations, visit fallonchalkfest.com.

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Pink Floyd Laser Spectacular, May 29: The cult classic laser and light show featuring the music of Pink Floyd is making a one-night-only appearance inside the South Shore Room at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe, 15 Highway 50 in Stateline. Tickets start at $44. For details, visit caesars.com/harrahs-tahoe.

Legion Sports Fest, May 30: Fitness enthusiasts, check out this 10-sport, 2,500-athlete event with hundreds of fitness and nutrition vendors at the Reno Events Center, 400 University Way. For schedule, tickets and details, visit centerpodium.com/events/legion-sports-fest/.

Biggest Little Skate Jam, May 30: Wu Tang member GZA headlines this rap-centered event that also features a pop-up skate park on the premises. Other performers include Ramirez, The Pharcyde, Souls of Mischief and AK. It all begins at 12 noon at Club Underground, 555 E. 4th St. Tickets are $80-$165. Details at clubundergroundreno.com.

Capital City Brewfest, May 30: This annual event features live music, with specific artists to be announced. It takes place starting at 2 p.m. at McFadden Plaza, 223 W. 3rd St., Carson City. Tickets are $35-$45. Details at capitalcitybrewfest.com.

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Magique, May 30: This show blends magic, comedy and dance.This week’s show is 8 p.m. Saturday. Performances are at the Celebrity Showroom, Nugget Casino Resort, 1100 Nugget Ave., Sparks. Tickets are $60-$140. For details, call 775-356-3300 or visit nuggetcasinoresort.com.

Reno-Tahoe concerts and shows, May 25-31

Giyera, Self Ordained, Brusher and Malice, May 25: A quartet of Nevada-based straight edge bands will perform Monday night at The Holland Project, 140 Vesta St. Tickets are $12. For details, visit hollandreno.org.

Accessory and Facing, May 26: A pair of touring acts that combine noise-rock and shoegaze, they play at 7 p.m. at Holland Project, 140 Vesta St. Tickets are $12-$15. Details: 775-742-1858 or hollandreno.org.

Left On Read, May 26: Another band that features shoegaze as an influence, except that Left on Read also has a post-hardcore feel to some of its tunes. This Portland, Oregon band plays at 7:30 p.m. at Pizzava, 670 E. Prater Way, Sparks. There is a $10 door charge. Details at instagram.com/pizzava.showspace.

Lucy Darling, May 26: Darling is actually comedian/magician and musician Carisa Hendrix from Canada. As Darling, they perform a tribute to Vegas/Hollywood entertainers from bygone years, a characterization that became very popular on TikTok. Darling performs at 8 p.m. at the Grand Theater, Grand Sierra Resort and Casino, 2500 E. 2nd St. Tickets are $50-$95. For details, call 775-789-1115 or visit grandsierraresort.com.

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Telehealth, May 27: Signed to their hometown’s SubPop label, this Seattle group prominently features synths and definitely has a lot in common with UK post-punk and German art rock from the mid-to-late ‘70s. They play at 7 p.m. at Holland Project, 140 Vesta St. Tickets are $12-$15. Details: 775-742-1858 or hollandreno.org.

Billy Batts and the Made Men and Bazooka Sharks, May 27: An excellent tour to stop in Reno, as the Made Men (from Atlanta) and Bazooka Sharks (from Oregon) both play traditional punk and hardcore. With local openers Hired Fun, the show starts at 7 p.m. at The Empire, 620 Ryland. There is a $10 door charge. Details at instagram.com/620ryland.

Alabama Shakes, May 27: Reforming after a six-year hiatus, this great band mixes Southern rock with indie/garage influences, powered by the stunning voice and deft guitar playing of Brittany Howard. They will play at 8 p.m. at the Grand Theater, Grand Sierra Resort and Casino, 2500 E. 2nd St. Tickets are $75-$125. For details, call 775-789-1115 or visit grandsierraresort.com.

Sang Matiz, May 28-30: Afro-Brazilian and Peruvian music gets fused with modern jazz, funk and pop with this group from San Francisco. They play at 7 p.m. the first night and 8 p.m. subsequent nights at Terrace Lounge, Peppermill Resort Casino, 2707 S. Virginia St. Details at peppermillreno.com.

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Barry Neal and Debbie Praver, May 28-29: These two comedians talk about relationships as part of their dual stand-up show “Love and Laughter.” It takes place at 7 p.m. each night at the Celebrity Showroom, Nugget Casino Resort, 1100 Nugget Ave., Sparks. Tickets are $40-$55 each night. For details, call 775-356-3300 or visit nuggetcasinoresort.com.

Yellowcard, May 28: It’s a night of alternative and punk, or punk-adjacent, music as this violin-featuring group tours with New Found Glory and Plain White T’s. They will all make a stop in Lake Tahoe for this one, 7 p.m. at Tahoe Blue Event Center, 75 US Highway 50, Stateline. Tickets are $45-$115. Details at tahoeblueeventcenter.com.

Lily Grace, May 28: This country artist from Australia performs at 8 p.m. at Pure Country Canteen, 1537 S. Virginia St. Tickets are $20-$30. Details at facebook.com/purecountrycanteen.

Little Foot and Yes Ma’am, May 28: A pair of traveling alternative-folk acts returns to Reno for this show at 8 p.m. at 40 Mile Saloon, 1495 S. Virginia St. Details at 40milesaloon.com.

Marshal Pioneer Pepper, May 29-30: A singer-guitarist from Arizona, Pepper puts on a “Wild West” style dinner show, including traditional folk and country, as well as dance troupes. It takes place at 7:30 p.m. each night at Nashville Social Club, 1105 S. Carson St., Carson City. Tickets are $45-$80 each night. Details at thenashvilleclub.com.

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Deceits, May 29: This excellent band from Los Angeles merges modern punk with the classic ’80s goth/post-punk style from the UK. They play at 7 p.m. at Holland Project, 140 Vesta St. Tickets are $20-$25. Details: 775-742-1858 or hollandreno.org.

Colt Ford, May 29: The popular DIY country-rap musician returns to Reno for this one at 8 p.m. at Club Underground, 555 E. 4th St. Tickets are $45-$50. Details at clubundergroundreno.com.

Planet Perreo, May 29: This Latin/dance show features music from DJ/artists such as Ricky G and Disco Lazer. It starts at 8 p.m. at The Alpine, 324 E. 4th St. Tickets are $25-$35. Details at thealpine-reno.com.

Friends of P, May 30: This event organized by local musicians Nick and Mikie Ramirez (and named for their daughter, Pauline), is a benefit for Reno special needs charities for children. The lineup includes local indie/punk groups Rotary Club, The Juvinals, Nosebone (formerly known as the Shames) and the Glitter Bats. It all begins at 5 p.m. at Shim’s Surplus, 125 W. 3rd St. There is a $10 suggested donation. Details at shimssurplus.com.

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Defier, May 30: A hardcore punk/metal band from the Pacific Northwest, Defier plays at 7 p.m. at The Empire, 620 Ryland St. There is a $10 door charge. Details at instagram.com/620ryland.

Brian Kilmeade, May 30: One of the hosts of the “Fox and Friends” TV show, Kilmeade blends political commentary with comedy for his live shows. He’ll perform at 7 p.m. at Hawkins Amphitheater, Bartley Ranch Regional Park, 6000 Bartley Ranch Road. Tickets are $60-$165. Details at facebook.com/30silverpresents.

Kyle Gass Company, May 30: The former Tenacious D guitarist performs his own music that also blends comedy with rock and acoustic music. Gass and his band play at 8 p.m. at Cypress, 761 S. Virginia St. Tickets are $20-$30. Details at cypressreno.com.

Jeff Rosenstock, May 30: One of the best artists straddling the lines of melodic punk and indie rock, Rosenstock’s shows are always a fun time and loaded with excellent songs. He’s back in Reno for this Holland-Project-sponsored show: 8 p.m. at The Alpine, 324 E. 4th St. Tickets are $15-$20. Details at jmaxproductions.net.

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NGHTMRE, May 30: DJ/producer Tyler Marenyi goes by this vowel-negating nom de plume. His music blends bass music with house influences. NGHTMRE performs at 8 p.m. at Cargo, Whitney Peak Hotel, 255 N. Virginia St. Tickets are $40-$50. For details, call 775-398-5400 or visit cargoreno.com.

Tristan Selzler, May 31-June 3: Reno is home to this contemporary jazz musician. He performs at 6 p.m. each night at Terrace Lounge, Peppermill Resort Casino, 2707 S. Virginia St. Details at peppermillreno.com.

Shredding Cheddars, May 31: The monthly “Neutral Ground” showcase of new bands sponsored by Reno Punk Rock Flea Market continues with this headliner, who describe themselves as “Washoe County’s only elementary school rock band.” They play with a School of Rock student punk band and local rockabilly band P.S.T. It all begins at 12 noon at West Street Market, 148 West St. Details at rprfm.org.

Allah-Las, May 31: This excellent ’60s garage-psych throwback band from L.A. has been around since 2008, releasing strong albums that merge a lot of bygone pop-rock styles into a singular sound of their own. They play at 7 p.m. at The Hangar, 2401 Lake Tahoe Blvd., South Lake Tahoe, California. Tickets are $50-$60. Details at thehangarlaketahoe.com.

CD Ghost, May 31: Dream pop meets dance/electronic music with this Los Angeles duo. They perform at 7 p.m. at Holland Project, 140 Vesta St. Tickets are $15. Details: 775-742-1858 or hollandreno.org.

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Reno-Tahoe weather, May 25-31

Monday, Memorial Day: Sunny; highs 81-86 in the valleys and 66-76 at higher elevations. Clear and breezy overnight, then partly cloudy; lows 42-52 in the valleys and 35-45 at higher elevations.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy; highs 67-72 in the valleys and 56-66 at higher elevations. Clear and breezy overnight; lows 40-45 in the valleys and 30-40 at higher elevations.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers; highs 64-69 in the valleys and 55-65 at higher elevations. Partly cloudy with a continuing chance of showers overnight; lows 38-48 in the valleys and 32-42 at higher elevations.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers, especially in the Sierra; highs 70-75 in the valleys and 60-70 at higher elevations. Clearing overnight; lows 38-48 in the valleys and 29-39 at higher elevations.

Friday: Mostly sunny; highs 68-78 in the valleys and 60-70 at higher elevations. Mostly clear overnight; lows 41-51 in the valleys and 32-42 at higher elevations.

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Saturday: Mostly sunny; highs 72-82 in the valleys and 63-73 at higher elevations. Clear overnight; lows 41-51 in the valleys and 32-42 at higher elevations.

Sunday: Mostly sunny; highs 75-85 in the valleys and 65-75 at higher elevations. Mostly clear overnight; lows 44-54 in the valleys and 35-45 at higher elevations.

Northern Nevada roads, May 25-31

Reno-Tahoe Odyssey, May 29-30: Watch for runners on roads throughout northwestern Nevada and around Lake Tahoe this Friday and Saturday during the annual 33-hour footrace.

U.S. 50 between Spooner Summit and the state line: The Nevada Department of Transportation is conducting repaving work, which will continue through October. Expect single-lane closures and speed restrictions.

I-80 west of Reno: Expect lane shifts, reduced speeds and overnight lane closures through spring 2028 as NDOT works to replace seven aging bridges along the corridor between Mae Anne Avenue and Boomtown.

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Kietzke Lane near Gentry Way: Watch for lane and sidewalk closures on Kietzke between Linden Street and Moana Lane through June while NDOT conducts initial construction for future pedestrian safety improvements.

Mark Earnest contributed to this report.

Brett McGinness is the engagement editor for the Reno Gazette Journal. He’s also the writer of The Reno Memo — a free newsletter about news in the Biggest Little City.

Subscribe to the newsletter right here. Consider supporting the Reno Gazette Journal, too.





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Northern Nevada landscapes and backyards: More spring gardening tidbits – Carson Now

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Northern Nevada landscapes and backyards: More spring gardening tidbits – Carson Now


I confess I broke the cardinal rule of planting. I admit I fell for it. The weather was so beautiful, I not only bought marigolds and one tomato plant, along with some perennials, I planted them before Washoe Valley’s safe planting date for non-hardy veggies and plants of June 1.

Worry not, my fellow gardeners, I was immediately punished. Not one but two freezes came two days after planting.

JoAnne Skelly

The perennials are all fine. Amazingly enough, the marigolds made it. However, the tomato is a goner. I know better, but I got caught up in the excitement of warm weather and planting possibilities. 

My friend Kate asked me about pruning some overgrown roses now. She wanted to prune them back almost to the ground. I advised her that radical pruning is rarely the best option. A better plan is to remove a third of the excess growth, any crossing branches, any unsafe one that might poke you in the eye, and any dead growth.

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Since roses are prone to many diseases, always disinfect pruning tools between cuts. I use rubbing alcohol, because it doesn’t rust tools. I just put it in a spray bottle and carry it with me bush to bush. Some people use bleach, which does cause rust. Sharp tools are best for pruning roses. Follow up on each cut by sealing it with white or wood glue. This will prevent borers from getting in the stem and killing it down to the crown. “A little dab will do ya!”

During my unwise plant shopping spree, I discovered that fertilizer is now extraordinarily expensive. I was shocked. I guess the Iran war and oil crisis is hitting home in more ways than just gas for cars or diesel for trucks. Yikes!

I am enjoying the multitudes of birds that live on or near our property. There is a robin nesting in a viburnum under our bedroom window. I watch her surreptitiously and I’m hoping there will be babies soon.

The Western bluebirds are prolific, skimming through the air grabbing all the bugs stirred up from our weed-whacking and mowing. They and the robins take enthusiastic and entertaining baths in the bird bath every day. I have a number of hyperactive, black-chinned hummingbirds at our two feeders. Who knew how assertive hummers could be, guarding their territory? I also didn’t realize that house finches would drink regularly at the hummingbird feeders. 

I love spring!

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— JoAnne Skelly is an Associate Professor and Extension Educator, Emerita, University of Nevada Cooperative Extension. She can be reached at skellyj@unr.edu.



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The early voting blog, Primary 2026 – The Nevada Independent

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The early voting blog, Primary 2026 – The Nevada Independent


Welcome to the early voting blog!

This biennial tradition to track Nevada ballot patterns begins today as voters flock to the polls — well, perhaps not flock in very large numbers because it is a primary in a midterm with not a lot to excite regular folks. (If you have any questions or corrections, criticisms or kudos, feel free to email me at [email protected]. I’m here for you.)

I will try to update this blog at least once daily, and perhaps more as events warrant. A cautionary note: This is not like a general election where I can tell with some accuracy what the partisan turnout patterns mean, sometimes even being able to declare races over before Election Day because so many Nevadans cast votes early, either in person or by mail. That will not be the case in a primary, where the most significant data point I will be watching is total turnout. The lower it is, the more likely strange stuff will happen and the base-worthy contenders will have a better chance.

For context, statewide primary turnout in 2024 was 19 percent while in 2022 it was 26 percent. Turnout also is dependent on whether there are high-profile races at the top of the ballot, and there really aren’t any, especially because there is no Senate race this cycle in Nevada.

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In the governor’s race, the Democratic primary between Attorney General Aaron Ford and she-who-will-not-be-named-by-Ford (Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill, for the record) has not attracted much attention at all because Ford has not spent any money and Hill doesn’t have much. Gov. Joe Lombardo and his allies have done their best to boost Ford’s name ID with all the noise about the AG’s global peregrinations.

It is hard to believe that the feisty and expensive Democratic AG primary will drive up turnout statewide that much from what it has traditionally been, although some local races may have a slight impact. One thing to watch is turnout in Washoe County, which could be higher than usual because of the 2nd Congressional District primary and the Reno’s mayoral race. If it is really high, could that give Hill a chance for an upset? Probably not, but worth keeping an eye on it.

With the assistance of my new best friend, whose name is Claude, I have assembled historical turnout patterns and some projections for this year. You can see from this chart just how low Clark’s turnout is compared to other counties, with Washoe a little higher and the rurals significantly above both urban counties (“M” is midterm, “Pres” is presidential year).

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I have used these past totals to help project what 2026 will show, and my best guess (subject to change as votes are cast) is that between 150,000 and 180,000 ballots will be cast on each partisan side. (I am not that interested in nonpartisan turnout except to see just how low it is, despite the explosion in indie registration.) I think the Republican turnout will be slightly higher than Dems. But if not, I wouldn’t extrapolate too much to the general election, which is a completely different animal. (That won’t stop partisans from boasting about their sides’ turnout and victory margins, but it’s best to either ignore or mock those releases.)

Some other facts to remember:

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— Sixty-three percent of the Republican voters are in Clark while 78 percent of Democratic voters are in the South.

— Mail turnout was 65 percent of the primary total in 2024, up from 57 percent in 2022. You can use this secretary of state link to track mail turnout, which shows 27,000 ballots already have been returned, or about 1 percent of active voters.

— The first and last days of early voting are usually the highest. We will know something from today’s turnout what the trend is likely to be.

That’s all for now. What interests you? What am I missing? Just ping me at [email protected].



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