World
French right in commanding position as 'fed up' voters prepare to send Macron message in elections
FRANCE – When the French go to the polls this Sunday, the result will likely reflect an unprecedented move to the right in what could lead to the most conservative parliament since the country was liberated in WWII, experts say.
The reasons come down to unhappiness with immigration, a weak economy, a cost-of-living crisis and dissatisfaction with the current centrist government, especially among younger voters.
“Right now, France is seeing its biggest shift to the right,” Matthew Tyrmand, adviser to conservative political candidates and parties across Europe told Fox News Digital. “This is democracy at work—the people are mad as hell and not going to take it anymore.”
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Tyrmand continued, “The people of France are fed up with their cloistered Parisian leadership living high on the EU hog while their cities burn, youth unemployment remains high, crime continues to rise, racially motivated attacks and violence on native French persists.”
It’s the same factors that led the right-leaning National Rally to win 31.4% of the votes, the largest share of any French party in the European Union elections earlier this month. That National Rally, which was founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1972, has reinvented itself over the past few years under the leadership of Le Pen’s daughter Marine, and now aided by the 28-year-old president of the party, Jordan Bardella.
Unfettered immigration, which totaled more than 320,000 last year plus undocumented migrants, has many French voters worried. “It’s more to do with instability and violence than about immigrants taking away jobs from the French,” says Leo Barincou, a Paris-based senior economist for Oxford Economics. “You have crimes that made headlines that were immigrant-related; That’s what’s pushing the rejection of immigration.” Some of those events included terrorist attacks, murders and assaults. Another factor swaying voters against more immigration is the cost imposed on taxpayers for social benefits,” he told Fox News Digital.
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The threat of violence may be one of the factors driving younger voters to demand deportation of some immigrants. There’s been enough passion around this topic to prompt some musicians to make a song distributed on social media sites that’s become popular among Gen-Z, people aged 11-26. Lyrics include “I won’t leave, Yes, you will leave. And sooner than you think.”
The economy under Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party hasn’t done well either. The cost-of-living crisis following the invasion of Ukraine sent inflation to 6.3% in February last year and subsequently fell to 2.1% recently. Youth unemployment remains at double-digit levels. Plus, the level of home building has trended lower over the last decade, making it more expensive for young people to rent. “If you have a cost-of-living crisis, whoever is in charge will bear the cost of that,” says Konstantinos Venetis, director of global macro at TS Lombard in London. “Inevitably, when you get complaints from voters, then whoever is waiting to come into power will have an advantage.”
However, Venetis notes that France’s economy is certainly no worse than other major European Union countries, such as Germany and Italy, and maybe even better than those. “This year is supposedly the year that the economy is going to bottom out,” he says, meaning that economic growth looks set to improve. He says that’s likely to be powered by more government spending, perhaps even at an EU level.
Still, many younger voters and those who live in rural areas voted heavily for National Rally in the EU election earlier this month, and there would seem to be little reason to expect a different result this time. “There were very few places where the far right wasn’t first,” Barincou said. The places that weren’t right-leaning included Paris, which fits with a long-standing narrative that people who work in professional jobs in large urban cities tend to take a progressive political stance, he says.
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The likely passionate youth vote for National Rally may partly be driven by the youthful Bardella, who not only communicates his thoughts on TikTok but is also barely older than many in the Gen-Z cohort. “I am not too surprised he’s popular with younger voters,” says Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York told Fox News Digital. “I remember young people being excited about former president Barack Obama being one of the youngest U.S. presidents.”
A National Rally-led parliament, if it were to happen, would likely not lead to France leaving the EU or the single-currency Eurozone, Elias Haddad, a senior markets strategist at banking company Brown Brothers Harriman told Fox News Digital. “If the right wing come to power, the dynamics between France and EU will be a bit more complicated but not a threat to the monetary union,” he says.
Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen looks like she’s planning for a win, suggesting that Bardella, as Prime Minister, should be involved with decisions on military defense. While nominally the French president is the head of the armed forces, the constitution states, “The prime minister is responsible for national defense.”
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The French parliamentary system requires up to two rounds of voting. If one party doesn’t get an overall majority in the first vote, then the top two parties will battle it out in a second poll. The latter would occur on July 7 if required. As of Friday, polls suggested that National Rally could get 37% of the vote.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
World
Sotomayor's dissent: A president should not be a 'king above the law'
WASHINGTON (AP) — In an unsparing dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor said the Supreme Court allowed a president to become a “king above the law” in its ruling that limited the scope of criminal charges against former President Donald Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol and efforts to overturn the election.
She called the decision, which likely ended the prospect of a trial for Trump before the November election, “utterly indefensible.”
“The court effectively creates a law-free zone around the president, upsetting the status quo that has existed since the founding,” she wrote, in a dissent joined by the other two liberal justices, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
Sotomayor read her dissent aloud in the courtroom, with a weighty delivery that underscored her criticism of the majority. She strongly pronounced each word, pausing at certain moments and gritting her teeth at others.
“Ironic isn’t it? The man in charge of enforcing laws can now just break them,” Sotomayor said.
Chief Justice John Roberts accused the liberal justices of fearmongering in the 6-3 majority opinion. It found that presidents aren’t above the law but must be entitled to presumptive immunity for official acts so the looming threat of a potential criminal prosecution doesn’t keep them from forcefully exercising the office’s far-reaching powers or create a cycle of prosecutions aimed at political enemies.
While the opinion allows for the possibility of prosecutions for unofficial acts, Sotomayor said it “deprives these prosecutions of any teeth” by excluding any evidence that related to official acts where the president is immune.
“This majority’s project will have disastrous consequences for the presidency and for our democracy,” she said. She ended by saying, “With fear for our democracy, I dissent.”
Trump, for his part, has denied doing anything wrong and has said this prosecution and three others are politically motivated to try to keep him from returning to the White House.
The other justices looked on in silence and largely remained still as Sotomayor spoke, with Justice Samuel Alito shuffling through papers and appearing to study them.
Sotomayor pointed to historical evidence, from the founding fathers to Watergate, that presidents could potentially face prosecution. She took a jab at the conservative majority that has made the nation’s history a guiding principle on issues like guns and abortion. “Interesting, history matters, right?”
Then she looked at the courtroom audience and concluded, “Except here.”
The majority feared that the threat of potential prosecution could constrain a president or create a “cycle of factional strife,” that the founders intended to avoid.
Sotomayor, on the other handed, pointed out that presidents have access to extensive legal advice about their actions and that criminal cases typically face high bars in court to proceed.
“It is a far greater danger if the president feels empowered to violate federal criminal law, buoyed by the knowledge of future immunity,” she said. “I am deeply troubled by the idea … that our nation loses something valuable when the president is forced to operate within the confines of federal criminal law.”
___
Associated Press writer Stephen Groves contributed to this story.
World
Ukraine thwarts plot to overthrow government in failed coup attempt
Ukrainian security officials on Monday said a plot to overthrow the federal government in Kyiv had been thwarted as Russia ramps up attacks on the capital city.
Four Ukrainian civilians were detained over the weekend on suspicion of planning an alleged coup by seizing Parliament and announcing their intent to replace military and civilian leadership, said the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) following an investigation that began in May.
Ukrainian officials have offered few details regarding the plot but said the “activists” were working under the guise of forming a peaceful rally in Kyiv on Sunday.
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Despite dissident messages exchanged on social media, the majority of the participants of the event were allegedly unaware of the group’s intent to “force” the public to “choose a temporary government,” claimed Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office in a Telegram post.
It is unclear if the group had any connections with Russian officials, though the SBU noted the scheme “would have played in Russia’s hands.”
U.S. and European intelligence officials have accused Moscow of ramping up its covert campaigns against Kyiv and its international allies in a move to undermine support for Ukraine, reports said earlier this year.
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Russia has seen recent gains in Ukraine and security officials said Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking a new approach when it comes to striking Kyiv.
“The aggressor is testing new tactics – he is looking for the right time, methods and means,” the Kyiv City Military Administration said in a post to Telegram.
The administration pointed to the lack of ballistic and cruise missiles used in the latest strike on the city Sunday, but reminded citizens not to ignore air raid sirens that have plagued the city for more than two years.
“No air alarm can be ignored,” the administration said in its post. “Rockets are shot down, but the molecules do not disintegrate, and the debris poses a threat to human life.”
World
Ex-Pakistan PM Imran Khan arbitrarily detained, says UN working group
Geneva-based UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention says ‘appropriate remedy’ would be to release Khan ‘immediately’.
A United Nations human rights working group says former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has been arbitrarily imprisoned in violation of international law.
In an opinion issued on Monday, the Geneva-based UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention said the “appropriate remedy would be to release Mr. Khan immediately and accord him an enforceable right to compensation and other reparations, in accordance with international law”.
“[The] working group concludes that his detention had no legal basis and appears to have been intended to disqualify him from running for political office. Thus, from the outset, that prosecution was not grounded in law and was reportedly instrumentalised for a political purpose,” the UN group said, according to a report published on Pakistan’s Dawn news website.
Since his removal as prime minister in April 2022, Khan, 71, has been entangled in more than 200 legal cases and imprisoned since August last year. He calls the cases politically motivated and orchestrated by his political enemies to keep him from power.
Last week, an Islamabad court rejected a plea to suspend the jail terms of Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi, whose marriage was ruled illegal under Islamic law.
In April this year, a Pakistani high court suspended Khan and his wife’s 14-year prison sentences in a corruption case. Khan also had another 10-year sentence for treason overturned this month.
But he remains in Adiala jail, south of the capital Islamabad, over the illegal marriage conviction.
Rana Sanaullah, an adviser to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, last week said “the government will try to keep him locked up for as long as possible”, according to the AFP news agency.
Analysts say Pakistan’s powerful military, which has ruled directly for decades and wields immense power, is likely behind the slew of cases.
Khan was ousted by a parliamentary no-confidence vote after falling out with the top generals who had once backed him.
He then waged an unprecedented campaign against them and accused top army officers of conspiring in an assassination attempt in which he was shot during a political rally in November 2022. The military rejected the allegation.
Khan’s brief arrest in May 2023 sparked nationwide unrest, which in turn prompted a sweeping crackdown against his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and its senior leaders.
PTI candidates were forced to stand as independents in the February general elections, although candidates loyal to PTI still secured more seats than any other party.
However, they were kept from power by a broad coalition of parties considered loyal to the military.
On Friday, Pakistan’s lower house of parliament denounced a United States’ congressional resolution that called for an independent investigation into allegations that Pakistan’s elections this year were rigged.
Though Pakistan’s government expressed anger over the US resolution, Khan’s party hailed it, saying its victory in the election was converted into a defeat by the country’s election commission.
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