World
Fate of Ukrainian lands held by Russia still seems unclear
TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — In response to Russian state TV, the way forward for the Ukrainian areas captured by Moscow’s forces is all however determined: Referendums on changing into a part of Russia will quickly happen there, and the joyful residents who had been deserted by Kyiv will be capable of prosper in peace.
In actuality, the Kremlin seems to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine’s southern areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the japanese provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, regardless that officers it put in there have already got introduced plans for a vote to affix Russia.
Because the warfare in Ukraine nears its six-month mark, Moscow faces a number of issues within the territory it occupies -– from pulverized civilian infrastructure that wants pressing rebuilding as colder climate looms, to guerrilla resistance and more and more debilitating assaults by Kyiv’s navy forces which have been gearing up for a counteroffensive within the south.
Analysts say that what might have been a transparent victory for the Kremlin is changing into one thing of a muddle.
“It’s clear that the scenario gained’t stabilize for a very long time,” even when referendums finally are held, says Nikolai Petrov, a senior analysis fellow in Chatham Home’s Russia and Eurasia Program. “There would be the guerrilla motion, there will probably be underground resistance, there will probably be terrorist acts, there will probably be shelling. … Proper now, the impression is that even the Kremlin doesn’t actually consider that by holding these referendums, it could draw a thick line below it.”
Moscow’s plans to include captured territories had been clear from the outset of the Feb. 24 invasion. A number of weeks in, separatist leaders of the self-proclaimed “individuals’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the Kremlin acknowledged as unbiased states, voiced plans to carry votes on changing into a part of Russia. Whereas forces backed by Moscow management virtually all of Luhansk, some estimates say Russia and the separatists management about 60% of the Donetsk area.
Comparable bulletins adopted from Kremlin-backed administrations of the southern Kherson area, which is nearly fully occupied by Russians, and within the Zaporizhzhia area, massive swaths of that are below Moscow’s management.
Whereas the Kremlin coyly says it’s as much as the residents to determine whether or not they formally need to stay in Russia or Ukraine, lower-level officers talked about doable dates for the balloting.
Senior lawmaker Leonid Slutksy as soon as talked about July, though it didn’t happen. Vladimir Rogov, a Moscow-installed official within the Zaporizhzhia area, recommended the primary half of September. Kirill Stremousov, a Kremlin-backed official in Kherson, talked about scheduling it earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
As summer time wanes, there’s nonetheless no date for the referendums. Professional-Russian officers in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia say the votes will happen after Moscow takes full management of the remainder of the Donetsk area, however the Kremlin’s positive aspects there have been minimal not too long ago. Nonetheless, campaigns selling the votes are reportedly nicely underway.
Russian TV reveals cities with billboards proclaiming, “Along with Russia.” Stremousov reviews from Kherson virtually each day on social media about his journeys across the area, the place he meets individuals adamant about becoming a member of Russia. Within the Russian-controlled a part of Zaporizhzhia, the Moscow-installed administration already has ordered an election fee to organize for a referendum.
Balloting apart, there are different indicators that Russia is planning on staying.
The ruble has been launched alongside the Ukrainian hryvnia and has been used to pay out pensions and different advantages. Russian passports had been provided to residents in a fast-track citizenship process. Faculties had been reported to have switched to a Russian curriculum, beginning in September.
Russian license plates got to automotive homeowners by visitors police, with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia assigned Russian area numbers 184 and 185. The Russian Inside Ministry, which oversees the visitors police, didn’t responded to an Related Press request for remark to make clear how that was authorized, on condition that each areas are nonetheless a part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian officers and activists, in the meantime, paint an image that contrasts sharply with the Russian TV portrayal of a brilliant future for the occupied territories below Moscow’s beneficiant care.
Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai instructed AP that 90% of the inhabitants within the province’s massive cities has left. Devastation and squalor “reigns” within the cities and cities seized by Russia, he mentioned, and there are only some villages not below Moscow’s management after weeks of exhausting battles.
Residents use “water from puddles” and construct “a bonfire within the yard to prepare dinner meals on, proper subsequent to rubbish, Haidai mentioned.
“Our folks that handle to return residence to gather their belongings don’t acknowledge cities and villages that used to blossom,” he added.
The scenario isn’t as dire within the southern metropolis of Kherson, which sits simply north of the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, in keeping with pro-Ukrainian activist Konstantin Ryzhenko. Kherson was captured with out a lot destruction early within the warfare, so most of its infrastructure is unbroken.
However provides of important items have been uneven, and costs for meals and drugs introduced in from Russia have spiked, Ryzhenko instructed AP, including that each are of “disgustingly low high quality.”
Early within the warfare, hundreds of Kherson residents repeatedly protested the occupation, however mass repressions compelled many both to flee town or to cover their views.
“Demonstrations have been inconceivable since Might. If you happen to publicly categorical something pro-Ukrainian, an opinion on no matter topic, you’re assured to be taken into detention, tortured and overwhelmed there,” Ryzhenko mentioned.
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov, whose metropolis within the Zaporizhzhia area additionally was occupied early within the warfare, echoed Ryzhenko’s sentiment.
Mass arrests and purges of activists and opinion-makers with pro-Kyiv views started in Might, mentioned Fedorov, who frolicked in Russian captivity for refusing to cooperate. Greater than 500 individuals in Melitopol stay in captivity, he instructed AP.
Regardless of that intimidation, he estimated that solely about 10% of those that stay within the metropolis would vote to affix Russia if a referendum takes place.
“The concept of a referendum has discredited itself,” Fedorov mentioned.
Kherson activist Ryzhenko believes a referendum could be rigged as a result of “they’re already speaking about voting on-line, voting at residence. … So, you perceive, the legitimacy of this voting will probably be nil.”
Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin mentioned that as a result of so many individuals have left the occupied areas, “there will probably be nothing near a correct polling of the inhabitants about their preferences.”
However Ukrainian authorities nonetheless have to treat such votes as a critical concern, mentioned Vadim Karasev, head of the Kyiv-based Institute of International Methods suppose tank.
“After the referendums happen, Russia will contemplate the southern lands as a part of its personal territory and look at Ukrainian assaults as assaults on Russia,” Karasev mentioned in an interview.
He mentioned the Kremlin may also be utilizing the specter of referendums to stress Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to comply with negotiations on Moscow’s situations or else threat “shedding the south” and a big a part of its very important entry to the ocean.
Zelenskyy has mentioned that if Moscow goes forward with the votes, there will probably be no talks of any variety.
Within the meantime, Ukrainian forces proceed sporadic strikes in opposition to the Russian navy within the Kherson area. On Thursday, Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported killing 29 “occupiers” close to the city of Bilohirka, northeast of Kherson, in addition to destroying artillery, armored autos and a navy provide depot.
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Comply with the AP’s protection of the warfare at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
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World
Biden announces cease-fire plan between Israel and Hezbollah ending 14 months of fighting
Israel has agreed to a cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah terrorists that would end nearly 14 months of fighting, President Biden announced Tuesday.
Biden, speaking from the White House Rose Garden, said that Israel and Lebanon agreed to the deal. Israel retains the right to self-defense should Hezbollah break the pact, Biden said.
“Let’s be clear. Israel did not launch this war. The Lebanese people did not seek that war either. Nor did the United States,” Biden said. “Security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield. And that’s why I directed my team to work with the governments of Israel and Lebanon, to forge a cease-fire, to bring a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to a close.”
“This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” Biden added. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed. Well, I emphasize, will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”
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In a prepared joint statement with Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, both leaders said the cease-fire would restore calm and allow residents of both countries to return to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line, the demarcation line between Israel and Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Biden and “thanked him for the US involvement in achieving the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and for the understanding that Israel maintains freedom of action in enforcing it,” his office said.
Netanyahu’s security Cabinet convened earlier Tuesday, when ministers had been deliberating for more than three hours over the proposed deal. The political-security cabinet approved the United States’ proposal for a ceasefire arrangement in Lebanon, with 10 ministers in favor and one opposed, Netanyahu’s office said.
At a press conference while deliberations were ongoing, Netanyahu laid out three reasons in support of the deal: to focus on the Iranian threat; provide an opportunity to refresh the Israeli forces; and separate Hamas from the northern front.
The conflict in Lebanon began when Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, initiated strikes into Israel’s north after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Since the back-and-forth began, Israel has killed many of Hezbollah’s leaders, in addition to degrading its infrastructure in Lebanon.
By ending the conflict with Hezbollah, Netanyahu said Hamas would stand alone in the Gaza Strip, clearing the way for Israeli forces to recover the remaining Oct. 7 hostages.
Earlier, Netanyahu said he would present the agreement to the Cabinet for a vote later Tuesday.
“How long it will be will depends on what will happen in Lebanon,” Netanyahu said. “If Hezbollah doesn’t follow the agreement, we’ll attack.”
Under the proposed terms of an initial two-month cease-fire, Hezbollah would have been required to move its forces north of the Litani River – a significant focal point which in some places is 20 miles from the Israeli border – and Israeli forces must withdraw from southern Lebanon as well. The Lebanese armed forces are to deploy to the border region within 60 days, and a five-country committee chaired by the U.S., and including France, would monitor compliance of the terms of the deal, Reuters reported.
Rocket alarms began sounding Tuesday evening across Israel around the time the deal was accepted.
“Israel: We accept your request for a ceasefire. Hezbollah: We raise you a barrage of missiles,” Eylon Levy, a former spokesman for Israel, wrote on X.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, backed Israel in a statement, but criticized former President Barack Obama and the Biden administration over its handling of the conflict.
“I am deeply disturbed both by reports that Obama-Biden officials exerted enormous pressure on our Israeli allies to accept this ceasefire and by how those officials are characterizing Israel’s obligations,” Cruz said. “This pressure and these statements are further efforts to undermine Israel and constrain the incoming Trump administration.”
ISRAEL ‘MOVING FORWARD’ ON POSSIBLE HEZBOLLAH CEASE-FIRE, OFFICIAL SAYS
Among the remaining issues was Israel’s demand to reserve the right to take military action should Hezbollah violate its obligations under the emerging deal.
“Obama-Biden officials pressured our Israeli allies into accepting the ceasefire by withholding weapons they needed to defend themselves and counter Hezbollah, and by threatening to facilitate a further, broader, binding international arms embargo through the United Nations,” he added. “Obama-Biden officials are already trying to use Israel’s acceptance of this ceasefire to ensure that Hezbollah and other Iranian terrorist groups remain intact across Lebanon, and to limit Israel’s future freedom of action and self-defense.”
Republicans have criticized the Biden administration for constraining Israel while fighting off attacks from terrorist neighbors.
In addition to the cease-fire, a peacekeeping mission by observers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon will also continue, according to the Israeli news agency Tazpit Press Service (TPS-IL).
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said earlier Tuesday that its ground troops have reached parts of Lebanon’s Litani River – considered a longtime Hezbollah stronghold.
In a statement, the IDF said its troops had reached the Wadi Slouqi area in southern Lebanon and “raided Hezbollah strongholds, uncovering and confiscating hundreds of weapons, dismantling dozens of underground facilities, and neutralizing numerous rocket launchers that were prepared for imminent use.”
The IDF said the clashes with Hezbollah took place on the eastern end of the Litani, just a few miles from the border. It is one of the deepest places Israeli forces have reached in a nearly two-month ground operation.
The Israeli military said troops “conducted intelligence-based raids based on terrorist infrastructure concealed in the complex terrain.”
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“The soldiers raided several terrorist targets, engaged in close-quarters combat with terrorists, located and destroyed dozens of launchers, thousands of rockets and missiles, and weapons storage facilities hidden in the mountainside,” the IDF said.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., praised the deal, saying it would allow Israelis displaced in the north to return to their homes and ensure Israel’s security against Hezbollah.
“As this agreement shows, when terrorists are beaten back both militarily and through dogged diplomacy, the likelihood of peace increases. Hezbollah said they would never give up as long as there was fighting in Gaza, but today’s ceasefire agreement should show Hamas they are as isolated as ever,” Schumer said in a statement. “Now, Hamas must release all the remaining hostages and come to a negotiated ceasefire. Carrying on their failed strategy will lead only to further suffering and SENSELESS bloodshed in Gaza. Hamas must recognize that there’s no future without a strong and secure state of Israel.”
“The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement also provides an enforcement mechanism to help ensure Hezbollah remains weakened and allows displaced Lebanese and Israeli civilians to return to their homes,” he added. “I applaud the Biden administration for this agreement and for continuing to work to negotiate a ceasefire and the return of all the hostages in Gaza.”
Hezbollah began attacking Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, a day after Hamas terrorists killed more than 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages from southern Israel into Gaza, setting off more than a year of fighting. That escalated in September with massive Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon, and an Israeli ground incursion into the country’s south. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israeli military bases, cities and towns, including some 250 projectiles on Sunday.
More than 68,000 Israelis have been displaced from their homes along the Lebanese border, TPS-IL reports.
An Israeli strike on Tuesday leveled a residential building in the central Beirut district of Basta — the second time in recent days warplanes have hit the crowded area near the city’s downtown.
The Israeli military also issued warnings for 20 more buildings in Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled suburbs to evacuate before they too were struck — a move carried out in the final moments before any cease-fire took hold.
Speaking on the sidelines of a Group of Seven meeting in Italy, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Tuesday there were “no excuses” for Israel to refuse a cease-fire with Hezbollah, warning that without it, “Lebanon will fall apart.”
The Times of Israel reported that Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with the U.N. Special Envoy for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert on Tuesday, when he said Jerusalem would have “Zero tolerance” for any violation of the truce, warning that “If you don’t do it, we will … and with great force.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
World
Why does the vote to approve the new Commission matter?
The new Commission is set to be approved by the European Parliament with a large majority, but how this majority is shaped will be worth watching.
A positive outcome is all but guaranteed when the European Parliament votes on whether to approve President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen’s new team of commissioners in its entirety, but there are good reasons to monitor Wednesday’s vote in the Strasbourg closely.
Parliament will vote to approve the incoming Commission, having previously endorsed all 26 commissioners through a backroom deal among centrist groups: the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe.
The new Commission requires an absolute majority of votes cast to be approved and take office in December. While this outcome seems likely, who votes for and against it remains somewhat uncertain. This is significant because it could shape and influence the parliamentary majority for the entire legislative term.
A twist in the pro-EU majority?
In July, Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected with 401 votes. At that time, the vote was conducted by secret ballot, though groups had publicly declared their intentions. Beyond the three centrist groups, the Greens/EFA group also supported von der Leyen. The Left group and all right-wing political forces voted against or abstained, with a few exceptions among the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
The result suggested a majority in the European Parliament resembling that of the previous legislature: centrist pro-EU groups, with close cooperation from the Greens.
However, the situation now could be very different. Firstly, the new Commission lineup includes Raffaele Fitto, a vice president from the right-wing Brothers of Italy party.
While von der Leyen has emphasized collaboration with “pro-EU”, “pro-Ukraine”, and “pro-rule of law” political forces, the chair of her EPP group in Parliament, Manfred Weber, has hinted at a broader coalition. He envisaged a “broad centre in the European Parliament, from the Greens to ECR.”
“My majority, if I may say so, is becoming real. And that makes me happy because we need broader stability in the European Parliament,” Weber said during a press conference in Strasbourg on Tuesday.
Such a majority could shift EU policy significantly rightward on issues such as migration and the environment. However, it also remains to be seen how von der Leyen’s grand centrist alliance holds in the voting tomorrow.
Defections and Divisions
Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (PP) has announced it will not support the Commission due to the inclusion of Spanish Vice President Teresa Ribera, a member of its rival centre-left PSOE (S&D) party, in the lineup, according to the Spanish press agency EFE. The PP has not clarified whether its MEPs will vote against or abstain.
Within the Socialists, several MEPs are also dissatisfied with the new Commission’s composition. Dutch and Belgian members plan to vote against it, while other delegations may abstain, according to sources from the group. French Socialists have already declared their opposition. “We do not accept a far-right executive vice president such as Raffaele Fitto. I will vote against his inclusion in this Commission,” MEP Claire Fita told Euronews.
The deepest divisions, however, are among the Greens/EFA group on the left and the Conservatives on the right.
The Greens claim to be part of a “four-group majority” in the European Parliament and are ready to “work constructively” while opposing the far right. However, the group itself is split, as revealed during a meeting on Monday evening. Only a slim majority, led by German MEPs, supports the Commission, while French, Austrian, and Italian members plan to vote against it, according to multiple sources.
On the right, some members of the ECR group are eager to join the new majority, while others remain firmly opposed.
The Brothers of Italy, the largest delegation in the group, will vote in favour, as the new Commission includes one of its members as vice president. Other ECR delegations are expected to follow suit, according to group sources.
However, Polish and French members will oppose the Commission, including prominent French MEP Marion Maréchal, niece of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who has criticised the designated commissioners. “Beyond the lack of competence of [French commissioner] Stéphane Séjourné, we face a commissioner for energy transition known for her anti-nuclear stance, a commissioner for demography who views immigration as a solution to declining birthrates, and a commissioner for equality who champions a pro-LGBTIQ+ agenda,” she told Euronews.
As the vote will be cast openly, the new commissioners will see which MEPs they can rely on. Two thresholds will be critical for their success: the 401 votes von der Leyen secured in July and the 461 that approved the previous Commission in November 2019.
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