World
EU-Ukraine trade reset: What comes after tariff-free access expires?
Since 2022, trade between the EU and Ukraine has been governed by a temporary framework known as Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs). Introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the ATMs eliminated all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU.
This offered a critical lifeline access to European markets for Ukrainian producers, especially for agricultural commodities such as grains, maize, eggs, and poultry, sustaining the country’s wartime economy.
However, the ATM scheme is due to expire on Thursday, and it cannot be renewed, having already been extended once.
Despite efforts since late 2024, the European Commission has failed to secure a permanent or improved replacement, leaving both Ukrainian exporters and EU policymakers scrambling.
This delay has frustrated several EU member states, many of whom had expected the Commission to secure a sustainable agreement with Ukraine ahead of the expiration deadline.
The political timing didn’t help: the Commission faced considerable pressure to avoid inflaming domestic tensions, particularly in Poland, where farmers have protested against the influx of Ukrainian imports.
With Poland’s presidential elections now behind, Brussels hopes negotiations for a longer-term trade framework can finally move forward.
Tariffs are reinstated
What happens when the tariff-free scheme expires? The most immediate consequence is the reintroduction of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods.
In practical terms, this resets trade conditions between Ukraine and the EU to the situation before Russia’s 2022 invasion, with tariff lines and quotas from the pre-ATM era reinstated.
According to Ukrainian officials, this could cost the country over €3 billion annually in lost export revenue.
Because the year is nearly half over, quota limits will be applied on a seven-twelfths basis for the remainder of 2025, proportionally reflecting the reduced time window.
The impact will be significant. In 2024, nearly 60% of Ukraine’s total exports went to the EU, up from just over 39% in 2021, before the ATMs came into force.
The free access to EU markets has been a pillar of Ukraine’s economic resilience during wartime, helping to stabilise currency flows and sustain public funding.
This will have consequences for Ukraine’s war effort too
The loss of preferential market access is not merely an economic inconvenience: it could have direct consequences for Ukraine’s ability to fund its war effort.
Vitalii Koval, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian policy and food, highlighted during a recent visit to Brussels that agriculture represents a much larger share of Ukraine’s economy than it does in the EU.
One in five Ukrainians works in the agricultural sector, and its performance directly influences national revenues.
Ukrainian MP Yevheniia Kravchuk warned that failure to secure even a partial solution could result in a 1% drop in GDP, further straining the country’s wartime finances.
“Ukrainian companies have shifted their markets toward the EU. If exports decrease, tax revenues drop, those same taxes that fund our military,” she told Euronews.
The reintroduction of tariffs is also expected to suppress producer prices, increase market uncertainty and discourage private investment, hampering both recovery and reconstruction efforts in the longer term.
A stopgap while a new deal is negotiated
To avoid a sudden rupture in trade flows, the European Commission has prepared transitional measures to apply after the expiration of the ATMs. These were quietly approved two weeks ago by EU ambassadors as a precautionary step, though full details have yet to be published.
A European Commission spokesperson described the transitional measures as a “bridge” to allow time for a more comprehensive review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which is the long-term trade agreement underpinning relations before the ATMs.
Crucially, the Commission has stated that future trade will be based on the DCFTA, not an extension of the emergency ATMs.
This marks a clear shift, disappointing Ukrainian hopes of maintaining the same level of market access they enjoyed under the tariff-free regime.
Negotiations toward a revised DCFTA began formally with a meeting in Brussels on Monday afternoon. While details remain scarce, a Commission spokesperson said more clarity is expected “in the coming days”.
Earlier that day, EU ambassadors met to reaffirm the importance of establishing long-term, predictable trade relations with Ukraine, while also ensuring protections for European farmers, a politically sensitive group in several member states.
“It is an extremely important decision to be taken,” said MP Kravchuk. “When I hear that, since the full-scale invasion, the EU has spent more on Russian gas and oil than on aid to Ukraine—and now we are talking about cutting economic access meaning that Ukraine’s economy in the times of war will be shrinking—then it’s a questionable position, rather than a partnership one.”
World
A look at some of the contenders to be Iran’s supreme leader after the killing of Khamenei
Iran’s leaders are scrambling to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years before he was killed in the surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment.
It’s only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen. Potential candidates range from hard-liners committed to confrontation with the West to reformists who seek diplomatic engagement.
The supreme leader has the final say on all major decisions, including war, peace and the country’s disputed nuclear program.
In the meantime, a provisional governing council composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, hard-line judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and senior Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi is guiding the country through its biggest crisis in decades. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that a new supreme leader would be chosen early this week.
The supreme leader is appointed by an 88-member panel called the Assembly of Experts, who by law are supposed to quickly name a successor. The panel consists of Shiite clerics who are popularly elected after their candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council, Iran’s constitutional watchdog.
Khamenei had major influence over both clerical bodies, making it unlikely the next leader will mark a radical departure.
Here are the top contenders.
Mojtaba Khamenei
The son of Khamenei, a mid-level Shiite cleric, is widely considered a potential successor. He has strong ties to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard but has never held office. His selection could prove awkward, as the Islamic Republic has long criticized hereditary rule and cast itself as a more just alternative.
Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi
Arafi is a member of the provisional government council. The senior Shiite cleric was handpicked by Khamenei to be a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, and three years later he was elected to the Assembly of Experts. He leads a network of seminaries.
Hassan Rouhani
Rouhani, a relative moderate, was president of Iran from 2013 to 2021 and reached the landmark nuclear agreement with the Obama administration that U.S. President Donald Trump scrapped during his first term. Rouhani served on the Assembly of Experts until 2024, when he said he was disqualified from running for reelection. Rouhani criticized it as an infringement on Iranians’ political participation.
Hassan Khomeini
Khomeini is the most prominent grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He is also seen as a relative moderate, but has never held government office. He currently works at his grandfather’s mausoleum in Tehran.
Ayatollah Mohammed Mehdi Mirbagheri
Mirbagheri is a senior cleric popular with hard-liners who serves on the Assembly of Experts.
He was close to the late Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a fellow hard-liner who wrote that Iran should not deprive itself of the right to produce “special weapons,” a veiled reference to nuclear arms.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Mirbagheri denounced the closure of schools as a “conspiracy.”
He is currently the head of the Islamic Cultural Center in Qom, the main center for Islamic teaching in Iran.
World
US cleared to use British bases for limited strikes on Iranian missile capabilities
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The U.S. has been cleared to use British bases for limited strikes on Iran’s missile capabilities after Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed off on the plan, and while U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey stated on Sunday Britain had “stepped up alongside the Americans.”
“The only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles,” Starmer confirmed in a recorded statement to the nation.
“The U.S. has requested permission to use British bases for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” he said. “We have taken the decision to accept this request.”
The decision came amid escalation across the Middle East in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed off on a plan to use British bases for limited strikes on Iranian missile capabilities. (Kin Cheung / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
On Feb. 28, in the wake of Operation Epic Fury, Starmer confirmed British planes “are in the sky today” across the Middle East “as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests and our allies.”
Healey went on to disclose Sunday that two Iranian missiles were fired in the direction of Cyprus, where Britain maintains key sovereign base areas.
The Royal Air Force confirmed that Typhoon jets operating from Qatar as part of the joint U.K.-Qatar Typhoon Squadron successfully intercepted an Iranian drone heading toward Qatar.
About 300 British personnel are stationed at a naval facility in Bahrain, where Iranian missiles and drones struck nearby areas.
“We’re taking down the drones that are menacing either our bases, our people or our allies,” Healey told “Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips” on Sky. “We’ve stepped up alongside the Americans. We’ve stepped up our defensive forces in the Middle East. We’re flying those sorties.”
ISRAEL’S LARGEST EVER MILITARY FLYOVER HAMMERS IRANIAN MILITARY TARGETS
British Defense Secretary John Healey stressed that the U.K. had “no part” in the American-Israeli strikes on Iran. (Peter Nicholls/Pool via Reuters)
Healey also made sure to stress that the U.K. had “no part” in the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and insisted all British actions were defensive. “All our actions are about defending U.K. interests and defending U.K. allies,” he said.
When asked if the U.K. would join the U.S. in offensive action, Healey said, “I’m not going to speculate,” according to Sky News.
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Downing Street also confirmed Feb. 28 that Starmer and President Donald Trump had spoken by phone about the “situation in the Middle East,” the BBC reported.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Downing Street for comment.
World
Pakistan calls troops, orders 3-day curfew as 24 killed in pro-Iran rallies
Army deployed and some areas in northern Gilgit-Baltistan region put under curfew after deadly violence over Khamenei’s killing.
Published On 2 Mar 2026
Pakistan has called in the military and imposed a three-day curfew in some areas following deadly protests over the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint United States-Israeli attack on Saturday.
At least 24 people were killed and dozens injured in clashes between protesters and security forces across the country on Sunday, prompting authorities to tighten security around the US embassy and consulates.
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The curfew was imposed before dawn Monday in the districts of Gilgit, Skurdu, and Shigar in the northern Gilgit-Baltistan region, where at least 12 protesters and one security officer were killed and dozens of others wounded during confrontations, according to an official statement.
Of those, seven were killed in Gilgit, a rescue official said, while six others died in Skardu, a doctor told AFP news agency on Monday.
Thousands of demonstrators on Sunday attacked the offices of the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP), which monitors the ceasefire along the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, and the UN Development Programme in Skardu city.
Protesters also burned a police station and damaged a school and the offices of a local charity in Gilgit, according to officials.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric on Monday said protesters became violent near the UNMOGIP Field Station, which was vandalised.
“The safety and security of UN personnel and premises throughout the region remain our top priority, and we continue to closely monitor the situation,” Dujarric said.
Shabir Mir, a Gilgit-Baltistan government spokesman, said the situation was under control and that the curfew would remain in place until Wednesday. Police chief Akbar Nasir Khan urged residents to stay indoors, citing “deteriorating law and order conditions”.
In the southern port city of Karachi, the country’s commercial hub, 10 people were killed and more than 60 injured during a protest outside the US consulate.
Two additional protesters were killed in the capital, Islamabad, while heading towards the US embassy.
Pakistani authorities have beefed up security at US diplomatic missions across the country, including around the US consulate building in Peshawar, to avoid any further violence.
The US embassy and its consulates in Karachi and Lahore cancelled visa appointments and American Citizen Services on Monday, citing security concerns.
The federal government warned that the situation could further deteriorate amid large-scale demonstrations condemning Khamenei’s killing on Saturday.
Tehran has responded with a series of drone and missile attacks targeting Israel and US assets in several Gulf countries.
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