World
Encircling Taiwan was a smokescreen for China's real goal of convincing US not to intervene, expert says
KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN – Contrary to what much of the world’s media has reported, China’s 13-hour simulated blockade of Taiwan that began on Monday, Oct. 14, using a record-breaking number of planes, an aircraft carrier, and both Navy and Coast Guard vessels, was not quite so simple as China “punishing” Taiwan’s new president William Lai for comments he’s made since taking office in May of this year.
“China planned the exercises in advance and would have carried them out regardless of what Lai said,” nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global China Hub Elizabeth Freund Larus told Fox News Digital. “The military exercises are intended to wear down Taiwan’s military hardware and personnel. The purposes of the exercises are to threaten Taiwan’s security to the point that the Taiwan people lose confidence in their government and to change the status quo of a Taiwan separate from China.”
All those reasons would be enough to justify the military maneuvers if one views them from Beijing’s tactical standpoint, but senior research fellow with the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies, Dr. Chang Ching, who also served in the Navy for several decades, told Fox News Digital that people are missing the big picture. Chang pointed to publicly available military logs from Japan that tracked both Russian and Chinese ships over several days before the 13-hour exercise.
TAIWANESE PEOPLE READY TO FIGHT AS CHINA RAMPS UP AGGRESSION, AMBASSADOR SAYS
A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan, on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024. (Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images)
A joint staff press release from Japan’s Ministry of Defense on Monday, Oct. 14, stated, “On October 11, 2024 (Friday), around 5 PM, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force confirmed the presence of six vessels [four Chinese and two Russian] in the waters approximately 400 km (approx 248 miles) northeast of Okinotorishima Island (Tokyo).” These were just some of the ships identified, and Japanese press releases noted that they had been tracking both Chinese and Russian naval actions since late September.
The location of these ships at those times, Chang asserted, means they cannot have been plausibly connected to the short Taiwan blockade. “The real target is the United States,” he told Fox News Digital. “They were using a very old Chinese strategy called ‘encircling the point/striking the reinforcement;’ in other words, practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan. If China can convince the U.S. that intervening in any actions it chooses to take in the Taiwan Strait is not worth the risk, then Beijing wins.”
Other local experts had similar takes on the situation. Taiwan’s Central News Agency quoted assistant professor at Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies Lin Ying-yu, who argued that the timing of the military drills was an attempt by China to probe the United States’ ability to respond to simultaneous crises on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait.
People look at the view from an observation point in Nangan Township, in the Matsu Islands on Oct. 15, 2024, a day after China conducted the “Joint Sword” military drills around Taiwan. (Daniel Ceng/AFP via Getty Images)
CHINA SEEKS TO ‘WEAR DOWN TAIWAN’S RELIANCE’ WITH COVERT ECONOMIC AND CYBER OPERATIONS, US WARGAMERS SAY
The Chinese Navy, depending on what matrix is used to measure it, is either in second place after the U.S., has overtaken the U.S., or is basically even. Regardless of rankings, the Chinese have a formidable navy that is often dismissed as inexperienced. Analysts such as Chang, however, who’s spent his adult life studying military strategy and threats, say those who underestimate China’s navy do so at their peril.
China’s fleets boasts many smaller and more modern ships. According to the Center for Strategic & International Studies, about 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, while only about 25% of the U.S. Navy’s were.
A screen grab captured from a video shows the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command launching large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in China on May 24, 2024. (Feng Hao/PLA/China Military/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Unlike in the past, for Joint Sword 2024B there was no 24-hour prior notification, no specific latitude or longitude parameters were announced, and to add a final touch of menace, no date or time was given for when the exercise was scheduled to end.
Despite this, the general mood on the streets of Taiwan during the encirclement was calm, with almost no one telling the media they felt scared or threatened. Some say such nonchalance is worrying as it implies that the Taiwanese people are beginning to accept that their government and military are powerless to stop China’s incursions that inch closer each time – Joint Sword 2024B, for example, pushed to within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan.
China’s large and well-armed Coast Guard also took part in Joint Sword 2024B. Many Chinese Coast Guard ships are essentially warships, and the fleet includes several 10,000-ton vessels equipped with 76mm guns, and capable of top speeds of 25 knots (28.7 MPH).
In a move Elizabeth Freund Larus described as “rather macabre,” and Chang called “a cynical reflection of their ‘abusive relationship’ mindset,” an image was released on the official China Coast Guard Weibo account (China’s version of X), depicting a drill route around Taiwan in the shape of a heart. The image featured Chinese characters that translate roughly to “Hello my sweetheart! Our patrol is our way of loving you.”
TAIWAN REACTS TO TRUMP’S THEY ‘SHOULD PAY US FOR DEFENSE’ COMMENTS
China’s President Xi Jinping reviews Italian Carabinieri during a welcoming ceremony upon his arrival in Rome on March 23, 2019. (Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images)
In a recent poll, some 70% of Taiwanese said they expected some type of U.S. help in the event of a Chinese attack, but the U.S. reaction to Joint Sword 2024B was seen by some as being tepid and confusing.
“The United States is seriously concerned by the People’s Liberation Army joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement. “The PRC response with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation.”
A China Coast Guard boat passes near the Matsu Islands of Taiwan on Monday, Oct. 14. (Taiwan Coast Guard/AP)
FOR CHINA’S MILITARY PLANNERS, TAIWAN IS NOT AN EASY ISLAND TO INVADE
The State Department Asia Pacific Media Hub issued a statement via X on Oct. 15 that read in part, “We have closely monitored the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exercise, JOINT SWORD 2024B, around Taiwan. This military pressure operation is irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing.”
Some in Taiwan are asking why the State Department chose to use the word “disproportionate,” as Taiwan has done nothing that would warrant even a “proportionate” response. With just weeks to go before the American presidential election, all official comments coming out of D.C. are likely to be carefully vetted, which makes the State Department’s comments all the more puzzling.
A member of the Taiwan Coast Guard monitors a China Coast Guard boat as it passes near the coast of the Matsu Islands, governed by Taiwan, on Monday, Oct. 14. (Taiwan Coast Guard/AP)
Considering that almost anything Taiwan does is seen by Beijing as some sort of “pro-independence provocation,” there are calls in Taiwan for the democracies of the world, led by the United States, to come together and prepare concrete reactions to China’s continual attempts to change the status quo, militarize the Taiwan Strait, and deprive the people of Taiwan of their hard-won democracy.
Assistant Director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, Kitsch Liao, told Fox New Digital that it’s “imperative for Taiwan to provide an update to its National Security Strategy, last updated in 2007, to act as a North star, and to galvanize collective efforts toward peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
World
Exclusive: Article Five not on the table despite Iran missile incident, NATO's Rutte says
World
Iran continues firing missiles, drones at neighboring states, with multiple interceptions reported
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Iran launched a new wave of attacks on Thursday, with explosions reported in the region and Tehran threatening that the U.S. would “bitterly regret” sinking an Iranian warship.
Iran’s strikes on Thursday targeted Israel, American bases and countries in the region. Israel announced multiple incoming missile attacks as air raid sirens blared in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense on Thursday said Iran used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in an attack on Nakhchivan International Airport and other civilian infrastructure. The ministry said the details of the attack and the capabilities of the UAVs were being investigated.
“The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan strongly condemns the attacks carried out by the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran against civilian infrastructure on the territory of Azerbaijan in the absence of any military necessity. The Islamic Republic of Iran bears the entire responsibility for the incident,” the ministry’s statement read.
Explosions seen and heard in Azerbaijan as Iran launches retaliatory attacks across the Middle East. (East2West)
Iran has not acknowledged targeting Azerbaijan, despite the country’s ministry of defense pointing the finger at Tehran.
Qatar evacuated residents near the U.S. Embassy in Doha on Thursday, with its Ministry of Defense confirming that the country was “subjected to a missile attack” and that its air defense systems were able to intercept it. The ministry urged the public to remain calm and avoid unofficial information.
Abu Dhabi announced that its authorities were responding to an incident involving falling debris in ICAD 2, which is part of the Industrial City of Abu Dhabi. Six people, identified by Abu Dhabi as Pakistani and Nepali nationals, suffered minor to moderate injuries.
A plume of smoke rises over buildings in Doha, Qatar, on March 5, 2026. (Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images)
FORMER TOPGUN PILOT DECLARES IRAN MILITARY ‘OVER WITH’ AMID US AIR SUPERIORITY, BUT WARNS OF ANOTHER DANGER
Iran has carried out retaliatory strikes since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, with the latest wave coming one day after the U.S. sunk an Iranian warship, killing at least 87 Iranian sailors. Sri Lankan navy spokesman Cmdr. Buddhika Sampath said 32 people were rescued from the wreck and were admitted to a hospital.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth defended the move during a news briefing at the Pentagon.
“An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo — Quiet Death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II. Like in that war, back when we were still the War Department, we are fighting to win,” Hegseth said.
Missile interceptions are seen in the sky on March 5, 2026, in Central Israel. (Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
ISRAEL’S MILITARY RELEASES VIDEO SHOWING OBLITERATION OF IRAN’S MISSILE LAUNCHERS, DEFENSE SYSTEMS
Iranian leaders condemned the attack, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accusing the U.S. Navy of committing “an atrocity at sea.” Meanwhile, Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi Amoli appeared on state television and called for the shedding of Israeli and “Trump’s blood.”
“Fight the oppressive America, his blood is on my shoulders,” he said in a rare call for violence from an ayatollah, one of the highest ranks within the clergy of Shiite Islam.
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The U.S. and Israel launched the war on Saturday with strikes targeting Iran’s leadership, including the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed. Iran’s missile arsenal and nuclear facilities were also hit.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
World
Which Kurdish groups is the US rallying to fight Iran?
Iran has launched operations targeting Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish groups in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in neighbouring Iraq as the regional war ignited by the United States and Israel entered its sixth day, with more than 1,000 people killed across the country.
State television, Press TV, reported early on Thursday that Tehran was striking “anti-Iran separatist forces”, referring to Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish groups believed to be based in mountainous, hard-to-reach areas near the Iran-Iraq border.
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Iranian missiles hit Sulaimaniyah city in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, according to local reports.
“We targeted the headquarters of Kurdish groups opposed to the revolution in Iraqi Kurdistan with three missiles,” Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported on Thursday, quoting a military statement. The Iranian military said earlier on Tuesday it used “30 drones” on Kurdish positions.
The attack comes just days after multiple publications reported that US President Donald Trump was in active talks with Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish groups, and that Washington hopes to use them to spur a popular uprising.
Various Iranian Kurdish groups, which share close ties with Iraqi Kurds, have long opposed Tehran from their bases in northern Iraq and along the Iraq-Iran border. These groups reportedly have thousands of fighters between them.
Here’s what we know so far:
Why are Kurdish groups cooperating with the US?
US officials said the aim is to stretch Iranian forces and take out the remains of the military-dominated Iranian government, according to reporting by CNN.
There is also speculation that the groups could be supported to take control of northern Iran to create a ground buffer for Israeli forces, possibly streaming in from Iraq.
US-Israeli bombings have heavily targeted areas along the Iraq-Iran border since the start of the war on Saturday, possibly to degrade Iranian defences and allow Kurdish opposition groups to cross fully into Iran, according to a briefing by US-based think tank, the Soufan Center.
The US has not ruled out sending ground forces, although analysts told Al Jazeera Iran’s rugged territory would make that very difficult.
If the US does support these groups against Tehran, it would mean that Washington is treating them like armed “players on a board,” Winthrop Rodgers, associate fellow at the UK think tank, Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
Which Kurdish groups are there?
Neither the US nor Kurdish groups had confirmed any agreements by Thursday.
However, it is known that Trump has spoken to the leaders of two Kurdish groups in Iraq: Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and Bafel Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), according to US publication, Axios. Talabani confirmed the call on Wednesday.
Trump also spoke to Mustafa Hijri, head of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), on Tuesday, CNN reported, quoting a Kurdish official.
Meanwhile, Iranian Kurdish rebel groups, which have thousands of fighters along the Iraq-Iran border, formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK) alliance one week before the war broke out.
The group issued statements at the start of the conflict, signalling imminent intervention and urging Iranian military members to defect. According to Israel’s I24News, thousands of its fighters were in Iran by Wednesday.
Here are the different groups:
Kurdistan Democratic Party: The ruling party in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The party controls the capital city of Erbil as well as Duhok. It has historical ties with Iranian Kurdish groups.
However, the KRG is not eager to be seen as supporting attacks on Iran, even as Iranian drones have hit US assets in Erbil. On Wednesday, Kurdistan region President Nechirvan Barzani spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and told him his region “will not be part of conflicts” targeting Tehran.
In 2023, the two countries signed a security deal that saw Iraq promise to disarm and relocate Iranian opposition groups on its territory, although it appears many groups are still based there, reflecting the limited influence the government wields over them.
Iraqi Kurds, who have close ties with both the US and Iran, are in a “difficult position”, said Rodgers.
“They are under tremendous pressure from a wide range of forces, including (pro-Iran) Iraqi militias. They will try to stay out of the conflict as much as they can, but that will likely prove impossible,” he said.
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): The PUK is the official opposition in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and also nationally relevant as Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid is a member. In a statement on Sunday, Rashid urged dialogue and an end to the war. Iraq declared three days of mourning following the killing of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on Saturday.
Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK): Formed on February 22, 2026, the group includes six Iranian Kurdish opposition groups seeking an independent state.
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) – Based in the Kurdistan region, the group has about 1,200 members and is proscribed as a “terror” group by Iran.
Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) – Also based in Kurdistan, it has an estimated 1,000 members.
Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) – A close ally of the Turkish opposition armed group, Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), PJAK is proscribed as a “terror” group by Ankara. PJAK’s armed wing, the Eastern Kurdistan Units (YRK), is believed to have between 1,000 and 3,000 members, many of them women. It is based in the rugged Qandil Mountains near the Iran-Iraq border and in the semiautonomous Kurdistan region. It has launched numerous attacks on Iranian forces in the past decade. A recent Iranian strike reportedly killed one fighter.
Organisation of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat) – It has an unknown number of fighters.
Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan – Based in Iraq’s KRG, it has an unknown number of fighters.
Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KPIK) – Also headquartered in the Kurdistan region, it has an estimated 1,000 fighters in 2017.
What is the history of US involvement with Kurdish resistance groups in the Middle East?
Kurds are an ethnic minority spread across the Middle East with a shared language and culture. They do not have a state of their own and have historically been marginalised across countries – mainly Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkiye.
For decades, several armed Kurdish groups have sought self-governance in Turkiye, Syria and Iran.
In Iraq, Kurdish nationalist groups gained some success during the 1991 Gulf War by working with the US, which helped establish the self-governing Kurdistan region of Iraq. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also trained and armed its army, known as the Peshmerga, after the US invaded Iraq in 2003. In 2005, the semiautonomous region was officially recognised in Iraq’s constitution.
Since 2017, Washington has also armed and trained the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia that Turkiye lists as a “terror” group because of its links with the proscribed PKK. The group, which successfully resisted ISIL (ISIS), now forms the main component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It controlled Raqqa and other ISIL strongholds.
However, when it began military clashes with Syrian forces under the President Ahmed al-Sharaa-led government last August, Washington turned away from the group and backed Damascus instead. In January this year, the SDF signed an agreement with the Syrian government to integrate into the government forces. In return, the Syrian government recognised Kurdish rights.
In Turkiye, meanwhile, the PKK, whose presence in northern Iraq has long been a source of tension with Ankara, declared a ceasefire in March 2025, after a call from its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to disarm.
How does Kurdish resistance in Iran compare with others?
Iranian Kurds opposed the Iranian government even before the formation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Rodgers said, and Tehran’s current weakness provides an opportunity for them to advance their political aims in the country.
However, the new coalition of multiple diverse groups is unprecedented, the analyst added, and their internal dynamics will be a key decisive factor in what role Kurdish groups will play in this war.
“Support from the US is helpful, especially in terms of targeting security forces’ infrastructure with air strikes, but they will likely be cautious about relying too much on Washington, especially from an administration as capricious and disorganised as Trump’s,” Rodgers said, noting how Washington abandoned the Kurds in Syria.
Unlike the split Iranian movements, Iraqi Kurds have long united to form a devolved government enshrined in the Iraqi constitution, built an advanced economy, and secured substantive relations with a wide range of foreign countries. That’s something Kurdish groups will also be hoping to establish in a democratic Iran, he said.
“I think it is unlikely that the Trump administration has made any commitments to the Iranian Kurds about supporting their political goals,” Rodgers said, adding that the US’s plan “does not look fully thought through at all”.
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