World
Data used for Gaza famine claims changing as expert cautions 'no one seems to be trying to explain why'
Dire warnings from the United Nations, the U.S. EU and aid organizations of mass starvation and famine among civilians in northern Gaza seem to be overstated, according to some experts.
“Leaders said that thousands of children were going to die, and it didn’t materialize, and no one seems to be trying to explain why,” David Adesnik, senior fellow and director of research for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital. Adesnik has been tracking recent increases in food availability in northern Gaza that have gone without comment from researchers and the media.
The first warning of famine came on March 18 in a report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC), which stated famine was “projected and imminent” in northern Gaza and the Gazan governorates. Without “an immediate political decision for a ceasefire together with a significant and immediate increase in humanitarian and commercial access to the entire population of Gaza,” the FRC stated that there would be a markedly increased “impact on mortality and the lives of Palestinians.”
A day following the report, Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the report, noting during a press conference in the Philippines that “according to the most respected measure of these things, 100% of the population in Gaza is at severe levels of acute food insecurity. That’s the first time an entire population has been so classified.”
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Palestinians shop for food and clothes at a bazaar in Jabalia, northern Gaza, on Jan. 15, 2024. (Mahmoud Shalha/Anadolu via Getty Images)
By May 31, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), reported that it was “possible, if not likely, that all three IPC thresholds for Famine…were met or surpassed in northern Gaza in April.”
On June 4, the FRC released a different prognosis, contradicting the FEWS NET’s results and stating they were not “plausible.” Among the reasons cited for disagreement was their finding that “while FEWS NET estimated the caloric availability in the area as covering only 59%- 63% of the needs…in April, the review done by the FRC estimates that this range would be 75% to 109% if commercial and/or privately contracted food deliveries were included,” and “157% if a higher estimate was used.”
Fox News Digital reached out to both the IPC and FEWS NET about the differences between their most recent reports. The IPC said that FRC analysts were unable to respond as they were at work on a forthcoming report, due for release on June 25, about conditions throughout Gaza.
A Palestinian woman works in a makeshift kitchen in the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip on June 20, 2024. (OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images)
FEWS NET pointed out that where FRC suggested there was not enough evidence to determine barriers to accessing aid, FEWS NET “observed significant challenges in both physical and financial access.”
“Analysis of acute food insecurity does not (and should not) only consider available supply, but access to and utilization of available food,” FEWS NET explained.
FEWS NET also stated that “when combining FEWS NET’s estimate of kilocalories available from food assistance with FEWS NET’s estimate of kilocalories available from subsidized bread from [World Food Programme (WFP)]-supported bakeries and [Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories]-facilitated commercial/private sector food commodities, the differences between FEWS NET and the FRC’s estimates are not significant. FEWS NET estimates that these three sources combined offer a total supply of nearly 150% of caloric needs in the month of April.”
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Eggs are shown at a street market in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on June 21, 2024. (Majdi Fathi/TPS-IL)
Adesnik, however, pointed out that FEWS NET’s original assessment did not include calories obtained through World Food Program (WFP) bread or commercial and private sector foods, noting that the FRC found that “FEWS NET simply ignored 940 tons of sugar, flour, salt and yeast that the World Food Program delivered to north Gaza bakeries. The tone of the FRC review is always respectful, yet it exposes the extent to which FEWS NET made indefensible assumptions that all serve to underestimate Israel’s efforts to help more food reach the people of northern Gaza.”
While Adesnik said that without question “hunger persists in northern Gaza and there is a deep need for humanitarian assistance,” he also said that the “stark differences” between FEWS NET and FRC’s assessments “underscore the subjectivity inherent in famine assessments, along with the potential for politicization.”
As an example, Adesnik noted that a lack of humanitarian aid reaching Gazans was “an integral part of the charges” that the International Criminal Court leveled against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant on May 20 when they issued arrest warrants for the men. The ICC believes Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for war crimes and crimes against humanity.” Among the allegations the men face is that they “plan[ned] to use starvation as a method of war.”
U.N. World Food Programme Executive Director Cindy McCain (United Nations via Reuters Connect/File)
Adesnik said that “regardless of whether the situation in Gaza improved because the famine declaration was premature or because Israel facilitated dramatically more shipments of food in March and April, this just shows how laughable the ICC’s charges are.”
Fox News Digital reached out to the ICC to ask whether they would change their assessment that Israeli officials intentionally starved Gazans based on FRC findings about food availability in April, prior to charges being filed. The ICC responded by directing Fox News Digital to its statement announcing war crimes charges against Israeli and Hamas leaders.
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IDF forces are seen operating in Rafah in the Gaza Strip. (IDF Spokesman’s Office)
Other institutions likewise seem reticent to acknowledge that the dire threats said to be “imminent” in March have not come to pass.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the WFP’s Hunger Hotspots outlook on food insecurity from June to October notes that “in Palestine, over 1 million people – half of the population of the Gaza Strip – is expected to face death and starvation (IPC Phase 5) by mid-July.”
In response to Fox News Digital’s questions about whether the FAO planned to amend its report based on the FRC’s latest information on food availability in Gaza, the FAO news team stated that the organization would wait until the FRC released its updated report to revise its assessment.
Humanitarian aid trucks from the U.N. and World Health Organization wait to enter the central Gaza Strip on Apr 25, 2024. (Majdi Fathi/TPS)
A State Department spokesperson responded to Fox News’ requests for comment about the disparities between FEWS NET and FRC reporting by expressing concern about the “more than 2 million people and the most rapid onset of the levels of food insecurity that we’ve ever seen.” Noting that neither FRC nor FEWS NET confirmed that a famine was ongoing, the spokesperson said that “Gaza remains in a dire food security crisis with unacceptable rates of child malnutrition and elevated levels of associated sickness and deaths. And the whole point of measurements and early warning is to spur action now and not wait until it’s too late, and we’ve definitively reached a specific threshold.”
The increased aid entering Gaza has been affected in recent weeks by cigarette smuggling that “now threatens United Nations aid convoys.” Attacks on convoys thought to hold coveted cigarettes have led the U.N. to stop picking up aid, according to Israel’s TPS news agency.
Citing the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the TPS reported that 285 aid trucks were transferred to the Gaza Strip from the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings. Of these, “only 88 aid trucks were collected by U.N. aid agencies and the private sector.” According to COGAT, “over 1,000 trucks” and “hundreds of aid pallets” await collection and distribution.
“The U.N. needs to scale up,” COGAT posted online on June 20, sharing an aerial video of unclaimed aid in the JLOTS collection and distribution compound.
People buy food at a market in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on June 21, 2024. (Majdi Fathi/TPS-IL)
The WFP’s country director for the Palestinians, Matthew Hollingworth, recently stated in an interview with CNN that “in terms of our operations, we have been able to bring more food into the north over the past few weeks, which has improved access to basic food commodities for people there, but we need to diversify the assistance given. It’s not enough to have basic food commodities. There needs to be basic health care, there needs to be water and sanitation, otherwise, we won’t turn the curve on famine.”
The WFP spokesperson did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment about whether Hollingworth believed famine to be impending in Gaza.
As various entities continue to indicate that Israel’s efforts to aid the civilian population have fallen short, FRC’s assessment is in line with a study by academics and public health officials in Israel who found that aid entering the Gaza Strip could provide for the population of 2.4 million and meet its nutritional needs.
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The Israeli military’s latest wave of airstrikes in Iran dealt a serious blow to the country’s brutal internal security apparatus, opening the door for a potential uprising.
During the strikes, Israel “dropped dozens of munitions on the Basij and internal security command centers that are subject to the Iranian terror regime,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement on Wednesday. “The targeted command centers were used by the Iranian regime to maintain control throughout Iran and maintain the regime’s situational assessments.”
Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. has hit nearly 2,000 targets as it carries out a sweeping military campaign aimed at dismantling the regime’s security apparatus and neutralizing threats. Adm. Brad Cooper of U.S. Central Command confirmed the number of targets hit in a video message.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia, Iran’s volunteer paramilitary force, were behind the violent crackdown on protesters in January. The bloody crackdown saw regime actors firing on crowds and conducting mass arrests of Iranian protesters. Some had seen the protests as a sign that regime change in Iran was getting nearer, though it did not occur.
Smoke rises from central Tehran following reported U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s capital, on March 3, 2026. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Israeli and U.S. officials have hinted at the possibility of regime change in Iran as both countries take aim at Tehran’s military and security sites.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video message announcing the launch of Operation Epic Fury, which Israel calls Operation Rising Lion, that it was time for Iranians “to rid themselves of the yoke of tyranny.” Similarly, President Donald Trump said in a message to the Iranian people on Feb. 28 that “the hour of your freedom is at hand.”
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations,” Trump said.
Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 3, 2026, after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, 2026. (Negar/Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
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“America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass,” the president added.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, told The Wall Street Journal that the path to regime change through foreign airstrikes and popular uprising on the ground has “a bet that rests on no clear historical model.” Vaez also warned that the idea “ignores the resilience of entrenched authoritarian systems like the Islamic Republic.”
The IDF said on Monday that Israel had hit headquarters, bases and regional command centers that belonged to the regime’s internal security apparatus.
“These bodies were responsible for, among other things, suppressing protests against the regime through violent measures and civilian arrests,” the IDF said.
A group of men inspects the ruins of a police station struck amid the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
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It is unclear who will lead Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the operation. Since then, Israel and the U.S. have made it clear that regime leaders chosen to replace him would be targets. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Wednesday that anyone chosen to replace Khamenei would be considered “a target for elimination” if they continued to threaten Israel, the U.S. and regional allies.
The killing of key leaders might not be enough to cause an uprising, as the regime has a monopoly on weapons in most of Iran, the WSJ reported, adding that Basij militants are still patrolling the streets.
Fox News Digital’s Morgan Phillips and Efrat Lachter contributed to this report.
Related Article
Global energy markets remain in a state of high alert after several Gulf states suspended oil and gas production following escalating tensions in the region.
Since Saturday’s attacks by the United States and Israel, Tehran has targeted various sites in Israel and across several Gulf countries.
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Initially, these Iranian attacks focused primarily on US military assets, but Gulf states have reported that Iran has since broadened its scope to target civilian infrastructure, including hotels, airports and energy facilities. Iranian officials have publicly denied targeting Gulf energy facilities, however.
The Middle East remains the world’s dominant source of hydrocarbon reserves and a major driver of crude oil and natural gas output.
How much oil and gas does the Middle East have?
Nearly half of the world’s oil reserves and exports come from the Middle East, which contains five of the seven largest oil reserves in the world.
Once refined, crude oil is used to make various products, including petrol, diesel, jet fuel and a wide range of household items such as cleaning products, plastics and even lotions.
After Venezuela, which has 303 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia holds the world’s second-largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at 267 billion barrels.
The Middle East’s largest oil reserves:
- Saudi Arabia: 267 billion barrels
- Iran: 209 billion barrels
- Iraq: 145 billion barrels
- UAE: 113 billion barrels
- Kuwait: 102 billion barrels
Saudi Arabia is also the world’s top oil exporter with an estimated $187bn of crude in 2024, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
The Middle East’s top oil exporters:
- Saudi Arabia: $187bn
- UAE: $114bn
- Iraq: $98bn
- Iran: $47bn – largely sold at a discount due to US sanctions
- Kuwait: 29bn
Other Middle Eastern countries with sizeable oil exports include: Oman ($28.9bn), Kuwait ($28.8bn) and Qatar ($21bn).
In addition to crude oil, the Middle East is a global powerhouse for natural gas, accounting for nearly 18 percent of global production and approximately 40 percent of the world’s proven reserves.
Natural gas is primarily used for electricity generation, industrial heating, and in chemicals and fertilisers.
The heart of Middle Eastern gas is a single, massive underwater reservoir called the South Pars/North Dome field. It is the largest gasfield in the world, and it is shared directly between Qatar and Iran.
Gas is transported either through pipelines or by tankers. When using pipelines, the gas is pressurised and moved through steel networks. When pipelines are not feasible, such as across oceans, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is used.
To create LNG, the gas is cooled to approximately -162C (-260F), shrinking its volume and allowing it to be safely loaded onto specialised tanker ships for global transport.
To transport oil and gas, tankers from various Gulf states must navigate the narrow waterway known as the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas passes through this strait, primarily heading to major markets in Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea and India, as well as to Europe.
Which energy facilities have been attacked?
Here are the facilities which have recorded damage as of Wednesday:
Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura oil refinery
On Monday, one of the world’s largest oil refining complexes, the Ras Tanura oil refinery owned by Saudi Aramco, was forced to halt operations after debris from intercepted Iranian drones caused a small fire.
Saudi Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and revenue of $480bn. Headquartered in Dhahran, in eastern Saudi Arabia, Aramco controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd).
On Wednesday, Saudi defence officials reported a second drone attempt on the facility but this was successfully intercepted with no damage or disruption to operations reported.
Qatar – Ras Laffan Industrial City LNG facilities
On Monday, Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported that Iranian drones had targeted an energy facility in Ras Laffan belonging to QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG producer.
While no casualties were reported, QatarEnergy suspended the production of LNG and other products at the impacted sites.
QatarEnergy’s 81 million metric tonnes of LNG exports are mostly bound for Asian markets, including China, Japan, India, South Korea, Pakistan and other countries in the region. The halt in production hiked global gas prices to a three-year high this week.
Qatar – Mesaieed Industrial City
Qatar’s Defence Ministry said the country was attacked by a second drone launched from Iran on Monday, targeting a water tank belonging to a power plant in Mesaieed, without reporting any casualties.
On Tuesday, QatarEnergy also stopped production of some downstream products like urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium and others.
UAE – Fujairah and Mussafah oil terminals
On Monday, a fire broke out at Mussafah Fuel Terminal in southwest Abu Dhabi after it was struck by a drone.
On Tuesday, falling debris from a drone interception caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Terminal along the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates. No injuries were reported.
Oman – ports of Duqm and Salalah
On Tuesday, multiple Iranian drones struck fuel tanks and a tanker at the port of Duqm, with at least one direct hit on a fuel storage tank, causing an explosion.
On the same day, a drone strike was recorded at the Port of Salalah, which handles fuel and industrial minerals.
Athe Nova – oil tanker
On Monday, the Athe Nova, a Honduran-flagged tanker positioned off the coast of Khor Fakkan, UAE, was struck by Iranian drones as it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, setting it ablaze. Despite the fire, the vessel managed to exit the chokepoint into the Gulf of Oman, and no casualties were reported.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the strike, identifying the Athe Nova as an “ally of the United States”.
On the same day as the attack, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, warning that any ship attempting to pass would be “set ablaze”.
Since then, several other tankers have been hit.
Other regional energy disruptions
Although not directly targeted, the following energy sites suspended operations in response to Iranian retaliatory attacks:
Israeli offshore gasfields – Major gas production fields such as Leviathan and Tamar were shut down as a precaution following regional drone and missile launches linked to Iran.
Oil fields in semiautonomous Iraqi Kurdistan – Producers including DNO, Gulf Keystone and Dana Gas halted output as a safety measure amid the escalation.
Rumaila oilfield – Operations at Iraq’s largest oilfield – operated by BP – in southern Iraq were halted on Tuesday as a security precaution due to its proximity to the escalation zone.
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