World
China’s Risky Power Play in the South China Sea
China’s coast guard ships have swarmed and collided with Philippine boats. They have doused Philippine vessels with powerful water cannons. Chinese crew members have slashed inflatable crafts, blared sirens and flashed high-powered lasers at Filipino troops.
As China pushes to dominate the South China Sea, it is increasingly willing to use force to drive out the Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States. In recent months, China’s tactics have damaged Philippine boats and injured personnel, and raised fears of a superpower showdown in the strategic waterway.
A New Flashpoint
For months, the latest target of China’s power play was a Philippine coast guard ship, the Teresa Magbanua. The video above was taken by the crew of that ship, as a Chinese coast guard vessel collided into it late last month.
The episode was one of four confrontations between the two countries’ vessels, in just two weeks. The encounters were not only becoming more frequent, but they were also taking place in a new location — Sabina Shoal, a resource-rich atoll close to the Philippine mainland.
The two countries had in earlier months been facing off near another atoll in the disputed Spratly Islands, the Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese ships regularly harass Philippine boats trying to resupply sailors stationed on a beached warship. Now, their feud has expanded.
Note: Incident locations are approximated from locations broadcasted by the Philippine and Chinese coast guard vessels. Other tools include lasers, knives, axes, and rocks.
These are the places where China has confronted the Philippines since 2023.
The Philippines wants to control Sabina Shoal, an unoccupied atoll inside its exclusive economic zone. Sabina Shoal, which lies just 86 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan and over 600 miles from China, is near an area rich in oil deposits, and on routes Manila considers crucial for trade and security.
“A hostile China would be able to strangle our maritime trade with the rest of Asia and most of the world from Sabina Shoal,” said Jay Batongbacal, a maritime security expert at the University of the Philippines. Sabina Shoal would make “a good staging ground for vessels that will interfere with Philippine maritime activities,” he said.
Manila anchored the Teresa Magbanua, one of its largest coast guard ships, at the Sabina Shoal in April to try to stop China from what the Philippines sees as efforts to try to build an island there.
The Philippine Coast Guard has pointed to piles of crushed and dead corals apparently dumped on the shoal as signs of Chinese land reclamation under way. China has denied the accusation. But the building and fortifying of artificial islands is a key part of how China has asserted its claims over contested waters hundreds of miles from its coast.
China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, says its tactics are needed to defend its sovereignty. Beijing has rejected a ruling by an international tribunal in 2016 that China’s sweeping claim to the waters had no legal basis.
China accused the Philippines of trying to permanently occupy Sabina Shoal by parking the coast guard vessel on it, just as it had grounded the warship at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing even sent tugboats to Sabina Shoal, which some read as a threat to tow the Philippine ship away.
China has not resorted to guns. Rather, it is using what military theorists call gray zone tactics, aggressive moves that fall short of inciting all-out war. That includes imposing blockades, blasting water cannons and sailing dangerously close.
But the moves can still cause damage: The recent collision between Chinese and Philippine boats, for instance, left a three-foot hole on the Teresa Magbanua, as well as another Philippine vessel.
Philippine Coast Guard via Associated Press
Damage on the Teresa Magbanua
“If the Philippines insists on occupying more shoals, China will have no choice but to use all available measures,” said Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based research group. “There is no limit.”
On Sunday, after months of pressure from China, the Philippines said that the Teresa Magbanua had returned to port in Palawan. The Philippine statement sought to cast the move as following the accomplishment of the boat’s mission.
But it nodded to the challenges of remaining in the face of a Chinese blockade that prevented the ship from being resupplied, saying the crew had been “surviving on diminished daily provisions” and that some needed medical care.
The Philippines said the vessel had suffered structural damage from being rammed by the Chinese coast guard, but indicated that the boat would return after undergoing repairs.
Tensions on the Rise
President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has taken on a more muscular approach against China than his predecessor did. He has beefed up the country’s alliance with the United States and invited journalists to join resupply missions at sea to highlight China’s actions.
China has called the United States “the biggest troublemaker stirring up unrest in the South China Sea.” Mr. Hu, the expert in Beijing, said that China has been compelled to use heavier-handed tactics because diplomacy with the Marcos administration has failed.
With both sides digging in, they are tangling with each other more often and more aggressively.
Confrontations between China and the Philippines
In one confrontation in June, China’s coast guard used axes, tear gas and knives to harass Philippine troops on a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese sailors punctured Philippine military boats and seized their equipment, including guns.
Eight Filipino soldiers were hurt, including one who lost a finger. The Philippine military called it the “most aggressive” Chinese action in recent history.
Source: Armed Forces of the Philippines via Facebook
That episode on June 17 made clear that tensions needed to be dialed down. The two sides briefly came to a “provisional agreement” on the Second Thomas Shoal, and the Philippines was able to conduct a resupply mission at the end of July. But officials from both countries have disputed the details of the agreement, raising questions about how long it will last.
“China’s overarching strategy is to dominate the South China Sea. We should not expect the de-escalation to last,” said Rommel Ong, a professor at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila and a retired rear admiral in the Philippine Navy. “Unless they attain that objective, their coercive actions will wax and wane depending on the situation.”
Since October, the Chinese coast guard has used water cannons against Philippine ships more regularly than it likely ever has in the long-running dispute. Collisions have also become more common.
Sources: Armed Forces of the Philippines; Philippine Coast Guard; China Coast Guard; Reuters; Storyful
In recent confrontations, China has routinely used water cannons.
Whenever the Philippines has attempted to sail to disputed atolls, ships from the Chinese coast guard, maritime militia, and navy have rapidly confronted them.
Some of the Chinese ships shadow the Philippine boats. Others cut across their paths. The ships swarm around the Philippine vessels to form a tight blockade.
Note: Tracks show positions over the prior six hours. Location data not available for all vessels on scene. Times shown in Manila local time.
This is how Chinese ships set up a blockade.
China, which boasts the world’s largest navy in terms of the number of vessels, has been deploying more boats to these disputed waters over the past year than it did previously. The Philippines sends on average a few ships on its resupply missions, which has mostly remained unchanged.
Mr. Hu, the Chinese expert, said that China’s show of strength in numbers is meant to deter the Philippines without resorting to lethal force. “If China sends only a small number of boats to stop the Philippines, they might have to use guns,” he said.
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (C.S.I.S.)
Note: Data shows vessels counted during resupply attempts to Second Thomas Shoal.
China has sent more ships to harass Philippine resupply missions.
From Aug. 27 to Sept. 2, a weeklong period, the Philippine military tracked 203 Chinese ships in contested areas in the South China Sea — the highest number recorded this year.
Tensions have risen at a time when the militaries of China and the United States have had limited contact. On Tuesday, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command held a rare video conference with Gen. Wu Yanan, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command, which oversees the South China Sea. The United States said such calls help “reduce the risk of misperception or miscalculation.”
During the call, Adm. Samuel Paparo urged China to “reconsider its use of dangerous, coercive, and potentially escalatory tactics” in the South China Sea. China, in its own statement about the call, said only that the two sides had an in-depth exchange of views.
On Thursday, though, Lieutenant General He Lei, a former vice president of the People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Sciences, struck a more hawkish note.
“If the United States insists on being a plotter that pushes others to stand on the front line to confront China, or if it has no other choice but to challenge us by itself,” he told reporters at a security forum in Beijing, “the Chinese people and the People’s Liberation Army will never waver.”
Chinese flagged boats anchored at Sabina shoal.
Jes Aznar for The New York Times
World
Maduro arrives in US after stunning capture in operation that Trump says will let US ‘run’ Venezuela
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro arrived in the United States to face criminal charges after being captured in an audacious nighttime military operation that President Donald Trump said would set the U.S. up to “run” the South American country and tap its vast oil reserves to sell to other nations.
Maduro landed Saturday evening at a small airport in New York following the middle-of-the-night operation that extracted him and his wife, Cilia Flores, from their home in a military base in the capital city of Caracas — an act that Maduro’s government called “imperialist.” The couple faces U.S. charges of participating in a narco-terrorism conspiracy.
The dramatic action capped an intensive Trump administration pressure campaign on Venezuela’s autocratic leader and months of secret planning, resulting in the most assertive American action to achieve regime change since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Legal experts raised questions about the lawfulness of the operation, which was done without congressional approval. Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, meanwhile, demanded that the United States free Maduro and called him the country’s rightful leader as her nation’s high court named her interim president.
Some Venezuelan civilians and members of the military were killed, said Rodríguez, who didn’t give a number. Trump said some U.S. forces were injured, but none were killed.
Speaking to reporters hours after Maduro’s capture, Trump revealed his plans to exploit the leadership void to “fix” the country’s oil infrastructure and sell “large amounts” of oil to other countries.
Trump says US will ‘run the country’
The Trump administration promoted the ouster as a step toward reducing the flow of dangerous drugs into the U.S. The president touted what he saw as other potential benefits, including a leadership stake in the country and greater control of oil.
Trump claimed the U.S. government would help lead the country and was already doing so, though there were no immediate visible signs of that. Venezuelan state TV aired pro-Maduro propaganda and broadcast live images of supporters taking to the streets in Caracas in protest.
“We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,” Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago news conference. He boasted that this “extremely successful operation should serve as warning to anyone who would threaten American sovereignty or endanger American lives.”
Maduro and other Venezuelan officials were indicted in 2020 on narco-terrorism conspiracy charges, and the Justice Department released a new indictment Saturday of Maduro and his wife that painted his administration as a “corrupt, illegitimate government” fueled by a drug-trafficking operation that flooded the U.S with cocaine. The U.S. government does not recognize Maduro as the country’s leader.
The Trump administration spent months building up American forces in the region and carrying out attacks on boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean for allegedly ferrying drugs. Last week, the CIA was behind a drone strike at a docking area believed to have been used by Venezuelan drug cartels — the first known direct operation on Venezuelan soil since the U.S. campaign began in September.
Early morning attack
Taking place 36 years to the day after the 1990 surrender and seizure of Panama leader Manuel Antonio Noriega following a U.S. invasion, the Venezuela operation unfolded under the cover of darkness early Saturday. Trump said the U.S. turned off “almost all of the lights” in Caracas while forces moved in to extract Maduro and his wife.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said U.S. forces had rehearsed their maneuvers for months, learning everything about Maduro — where he was and what he ate, as well as details of his pets and his clothes.
“We think, we develop, we train, we rehearse, we debrief, we rehearse again and again,” Caine said. “Not to get it right, but to ensure we cannot get it wrong.”
Multiple explosions rang out that morning, and low-flying aircraft swept through Caracas. Maduro’s government accused the United States of hitting civilian and military installations, calling it an “imperialist attack” and urging citizens to take to the streets. The explosions — at least seven blasts — sent people rushing into the streets, while others took to social media to report what they saw and heard.
Under Venezuelan law, Rodríguez would take over from Maduro. Rodríguez, however, stressed during a Saturday appearance on state television that she did not plan to assume power, before Venezuela’s high court ordered that she become interim president.
“There is only one president in Venezuela,” Rodriguez said, “and his name is Nicolás Maduro Moros.”
Some streets in Caracas fill up
Venezuela’s ruling party has held power since 1999, when Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, took office, promising to uplift poor people and later to implement a self-described socialist revolution.
Maduro took over when Chávez died in 2013. His 2018 reelection was widely considered a sham because the main opposition parties were banned from participating. During the 2024 election, electoral authorities loyal to the ruling party declared him the winner hours after polls closed, but the opposition gathered overwhelming evidence that he lost by a more than 2-to-1 margin.
In a demonstration of how polarizing Maduro is, people variously took to the streets to protest his capture, while others celebrated it. At a protest in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, Mayor Carmen Meléndez joined a crowd demanding Maduro’s return.
“Maduro, hold on, the people are rising up!” the crowd chanted. “We are here, Nicolás Maduro. If you can hear us, we are here!”
In other parts of the city, the streets were empty hours after the attack.
“How do I feel? Scared, like everyone,” said Caracas resident Noris Prada, who sat on an empty avenue looking at his phone. “Venezuelans woke up scared. Many families couldn’t sleep.”
In Doral, Florida, home to the largest Venezuelan community in the United States, people wrapped themselves in Venezuelan flags, ate fried snacks and cheered as music played. At one point, the crowd chanted “Liberty! Liberty! Liberty!”
Questions of legality
linger
Whether the United States violated any laws, international or otherwise, was still a question early Sunday. “There are a number of international legal concepts which the United States might have broken by capturing Maduro,” said Ilan Katz, an international law analyst.
In New York, the U.N. Security Council, acting on an emergency request from Colombia, planned to hold a meeting on U.S. operations in Venezuela on Monday morning. That was according to a council diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a meeting not yet made public.
Lawmakers from both American political parties have raised reservations and flat-out objections to the U.S. attacks on boats suspected of drug smuggling. Congress has not approved an authorization for the use of military force for such operations in the region.
Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said he had seen no evidence that would justify Trump striking Venezuela without approval from Congress and demanded an immediate briefing by the administration on “its plan to ensure stability in the region and its legal justification for this decision.”
___
Toropin and Tucker reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Jorge Rueda in Caracas, Venezuela; Lisa Mascaro, Michelle L. Price, Seung Min Kim and Alanna Durkin Richer in Washington; Farnoush Amiri in New York; and Larry Neumeister in South Amboy, New Jersey, contributed to this report.
World
Maduro capture echoes Noriega takedown that used rock music as psychological warfare against dictator
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The U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Saturday is reviving memories of the dramatic 1989 takedown of Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega, which coincidentally took place 36 years ago to the day of Maduro’s Jan. 3 capture.
Under former President George H.W. Bush, U.S. forces launched a surprise invasion of Panama in the early hours of Dec. 20, 1989, accusing Noriega of conspiring with drug traffickers to funnel cocaine into America.
He had also faced allegations of manipulating the country’s 1989 presidential election.
MADURO MET CHINESE ENVOY HOURS BEFORE US CAPTURE FROM CARACAS AS BEIJING SLAMS OPERATION
“The goal was to restore the democratically elected government of Guillermo Endara and arrest Noriega on drug trafficking charges,” the U.S. Army’s website states. “At the time, Operation Just Cause was the largest and most complex combat operation since the Vietnam War.”
Similarly to Saturday’s operation involving Maduro, the Panama invasion proceeded without explicit authorization from Congress, according to Axios.
Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega at a ceremony commemorating the death of the national hero, Omar Torrijos, in Panama City. (Bill Gentile/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images)
Noriega’s capture, however, unfolded over several weeks as he evaded arrest by taking refuge inside the Vatican’s embassy in Panama City.
U.S. troops used psychological warfare to force Noriega out of hiding.
In a tactic known as Operation Nifty Package, military vehicles with loudspeakers blasted non-stop rock music with a playlist that included songs by The Clash, Van Halen and U2, BBC News reported.
Noriega surrendered to U.S. forces Jan. 3, 1990, 36 years to the day before the U.S. capture of Maduro, and was flown to America to stand trial, Axios reported.
MADURO-BACKED TDA GANG’S EXPANSION INTO US CITIES EMERGES AS KEY FOCUS OF SWEEPING DOJ INDICTMENT
Former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega is pictured in this Jan. 4, 1990, file photo. (Reuters/HO JDP)
The operation resulted in the deaths of 23 U.S. service members and left 320 others wounded. The Pentagon estimated that roughly 200 Panamanian civilians and 314 Panamanian military personnel were killed, according to The Associated Press.
In 1992, Noriega was convicted on drug trafficking charges in a Miami federal court and received a 40-year prison sentence.
He was granted prisoner-of-war status, housed in a separate bungalow away from other inmates and was allowed to wear his Panamanian military uniform and insignia in court, the AP reported.
WASHINGTON POST PRAISES TRUMP’S VENEZUELA OPERATION AS ‘UNQUESTIONABLE TACTICAL SUCCESS’
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro addresses supporters during a rally marking the anniversary of the 19th-century Battle of Santa Ines in Caracas, Venezuela, Dec. 10. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images)
After serving 17 years in a U.S. prison, he was extradited to France and later Panama. He died in 2017.
President Donald Trump announced Saturday that Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of the country as part of Operation Absolute Resolve.
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In recent months, the U.S. military has carried out a series of strikes on suspected drug vessels allegedly liked to the Venezuelan regime in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific.
Until a permanent leader can be found, the U.S. government will “run” Venezuela, Trump said, “until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”
World
US Republicans back Trump on Venezuela amid faint MAGA dissent
Since coming down the escalator in 2015 to announce his first presidential run, Donald Trump has presented himself as a break from the traditional hawkish foreign policy in the United States.
The US president has even criticised some of his political rivals as “warmongers” and “war hawks”.
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But Trump’s move to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and announce that the US will “run” the Latin American country has drawn comparisons with the regime change wars that he built a political career rejecting.
Some critics from Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, who backed his message of focusing on the country’s own issues instead of conflicts abroad, are criticising Washington’s march to war with Venezuela.
Still, Trump’s grip on Republican politics appears to remain firm, with most legislators from the party praising Trump’s actions.
“To President Trump and his team, you should take great pride in setting in motion the liberation of Venezuela,” Senator Lindsey Graham wrote in a social media post.
“As I have often said, it is in America’s national security interest to deal with the drug caliphate in our backyard, the centrepiece of which is Venezuela.”
Graham’s reference to a “drug caliphate” seems to play on Islamophobic tropes and promote the push to liken the US attacks on alleged drug traffickers in Latin America to the so-called “war on terror”.
The US senator heaped praise on the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize – handed to Trump by the association’s chief, Gianni Infantino, in December – and called him “the GOAT of the American presidency”, which stands for “the greatest of all time”.
Muted criticism
While it was expected that Graham and other foreign policy hawks in Trump’s orbit would back the moves against Venezuela, even some of the Republican sceptics of foreign interventions cheered the abduction of Maduro.
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz, one of the most vocal critics of hawkish foreign policy on the right, poked fun at the “capture” of the Venezuelan president.
“Maduro is gonna hate CECOT,” he wrote on X, referring to the notorious prison in El Salvador where the Trump administration sent hundreds of suspected gang members without due process.
Libertarian Senator Rand Paul, who has been a leading voice in decrying Congress’s war-making power, only expressed muted disapproval of Trump’s failure to seek lawmakers’ authorisation for military action in Venezuela.
“Time will tell if regime change in Venezuela is successful without significant monetary or human cost,” he wrote in a lengthy statement that mostly argued against bringing “socialism” to the US.
“Best though, not to forget, that our founders limited the executive’s power to go to war without Congressional authorisation for a reason – to limit the horror of war and limit war to acts of defence. Let’s hope those precepts of peace are not forgotten in our justified relief that Maduro is gone and the Venezuelan people will have a second chance.”
Early on Saturday morning, Republican Senator Mike Lee questioned the legality of the attack. “I look forward to learning what, if anything, might constitutionally justify this action in the absence of a declaration of war or authorisation for the use of military force,” he wrote on X.
Lee later said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told him that US troops were executing a legal arrest warrant against Maduro.
“This action likely falls within the president’s inherent authority under Article II of the Constitution to protect US personnel from an actual or imminent attack,” the senator said.
Dissent
Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene was one of the few dissenting voices.
“Americans’ disgust with our own government’s never-ending military aggression and support of foreign wars is justified because we are forced to pay for it and both parties, Republicans and Democrats, always keep the Washington military machine funded and going,” Greene wrote on X.
Greene, a former Trump ally who fell out with the US president and is leaving Congress next week, rejected the argument that Trump ordered Maduro’s “capture” because of the Venezuelan president’s alleged involvement in the drug trade.
She noted that Venezuela is not a major exporter of fentanyl, the leading cause of overdose deaths in the US.
She also underscored that, last month, Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, a convicted drug trafficker who was serving a 45-year sentence in a US jail.
“Regime change, funding foreign wars, and American’s [sic] tax dollars being consistently funneled to foreign causes, foreigners both home and abroad, and foreign governments while Americans are consistently facing increasing cost of living, housing, healthcare, and learn about scams and fraud of their tax dollars is what has most Americans enraged,” Greene said.
Congressman Tomas Massie, another Republican, shared a speech he delivered in the House of Representatives earlier this month, warning that attacking Venezuela is about “oil and regime change”.
“Are we prepared to receive swarms of the 25 million Venezuelans, who will likely become refugees, and billions in American treasure that will be used to destroy and inevitably rebuild that nation? Do we want a miniature Afghanistan in the Western Hemisphere?” Massie said in the remarks.
“If that cost is acceptable to this Congress, then we should vote on it as a voice of the people and in accordance with our Constitution.”
While Massie and Greene are outliers in their party, Trump’s risky moves in Venezuela were a success in the short term: Maduro is in US custody at a minimal cost to Washington.
Similarly, few Republicans opposed the US war in Iraq when then-President George W Bush stood under the “mission accomplished” sign on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln after toppling Iraq’s leader, Saddam Hussein, in 2003.
But there is now a near consensus across the political spectrum that the Iraq invasion was a geopolitical disaster.
The fog of war continues to hang over Venezuela, and it is unclear who is in charge of the country, or how Trump will “run” it.
The US president has not ruled out deploying “boots on the ground” to Venezuela, raising the prospect of a US occupation and the possibility of another Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
“Do we truly believe that Nicolas Maduro will be replaced by a modern-day George Washington? How did that work out in… Libya, Iraq or Syria?” Massie warned in his Congress speech.
“Previous presidents told us to go to war over WMDs, weapons of mass destruction, that did not exist. Now, it’s the same playbook, except we’re told that drugs are the WMDs.”
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