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Brexit caused ‘major disruption’ to EU-UK trade, finds study

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Brexit caused ‘major disruption’ to EU-UK trade, finds study

Analysis has discovered that Brexit triggered ‘main disruption’ to EU-UK commerce.

The examine by the London Faculty of Economics (LSE) revealed that each exports and imports had been impacted by the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc in 2021, with many British corporations stopping commerce with the EU.

“A sudden and chronic 25% fall in UK imports from the EU” was discovered by the examine printed on Tuesday, in comparison with “a smaller and solely short-term decline in UK exports to the EU”.

However the LSE researchers added there was a “sharp drop within the variety of commerce relationships between UK exporters and EU importers, suggesting the brand new buying and selling relationship that emerged in 2021 “triggered many UK corporations to cease exporting to the EU”.

The UK voted to depart the EU in June 2016, nevertheless it didn’t exit the EU’s single market and customs union till 1 January 2021, when the withdrawal settlement got here into impact.

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Below the brand new Commerce and Cooperation Settlement (TCA) struck between the pair, UK-EU commerce has confronted extra pink tape, customs controls and taxes, impacting each events.

The examine discovered “no proof” that Brexit decreased the UK’s commerce with the EU relative to the remainder of the world earlier than the brand new commerce settlement was applied.

To disentangle the impact of Brexit from different occasions, such because the Covid-19 pandemic, the researchers in contrast the expansion within the UK’s commerce with the EU to the UK’s commerce with the remainder of the world, alongside US and EU commerce with international locations aside from Britain.

This allowed them to isolate how Brexit affected UK-EU commerce.

The examine mentioned “there isn’t any signal that Brexit has led to a sustained change within the geography of UK export values, both following the referendum or after the introduction of the brand new commerce settlement in 2021.

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“UK imports from the EU abruptly declined by about 25% greater than UK imports from the remainder of the world after the TCA got here into impact, and this decline continued all through 2021,” it continued.

Researchers mentioned it was “stunning” that Brexit had a higher influence on imports than exports in 2021, notably for the reason that UK delayed the introduction of many customs checks on EU items till 2022.

Nevertheless, they mentioned it “can be a mistake to conclude that UK exporters had been unaffected by Brexit”.

Their examine discovered the 2021 commerce settlement triggered the variety of UK “export relationships” with the EU to fall by 30%, which they are saying was because of the ending of “low-value” commerce between the EU-UK.

What this implies, say the researchers, is that smaller UK exporters stopped promoting to the EU as the prices of exporting elevated, whereas bigger UK corporations which make up the vast majority of UK exports weren’t “severely hampered.”

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“Though our evaluation supplies a wealthy image of how Brexit has affected UK commerce up to now,” mentioned the researchers. “Some caveats are so as.”

Notably, they solely studied the primary 12 months of the brand new EU-UK buying and selling relationship, hinting that will replace their findings as extra information grew to become accessible.

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Democratic Divide on Gaza War, Campus Protests Hurting Biden, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds

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Democratic Divide on Gaza War, Campus Protests Hurting Biden, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds
By Jason Lange and James Oliphant WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrats are deeply divided over President Joe Biden’s handling of both the war in Gaza and the U.S. campus protests against it, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found, fraying the coalition that he relied on four years ago to defeat Republican …
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Slovakia's prime minister expected to survive assassination attempt as shock reverberates across Europe

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Slovakia's prime minister expected to survive assassination attempt as shock reverberates across Europe

Slovakia’s prime minister is expected to survive after he was shot multiple times and gravely wounded during an attempted assassination on Wednesday, according to his deputy.

Doctors fought for several hours to save Prime Minister Robert Fico’s life after he was shot in the abdomen while he was greeting supporters at an event outside a cultural center in the town of Handlova, Defense Minister Robert Kalina told reporters.

“I guess in the end he will survive,” Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba told the BBC, adding: “He’s not in a life-threatening situation at this moment.”

A suspect was swiftly arrested following the attack Wednesday and an initial investigation found “a clear political motivation,” Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok said.

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Rescue workers wheeled Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to a hospital after the shocking assassination attempt on him on Wednesday. (Jan Kroslak/TASR via AP)

The 59-year-old’s attempted assassination just weeks before an election shocked the small country and reverberated concern across Europe.

“A physical attack on the prime minister is, first of all, an attack on a person, but it is also an attack on democracy,” said outgoing President Zuzana Caputova, Fico’s political rival. “Any violence is unacceptable. The hateful rhetoric we’ve been witnessing in society leads to hateful actions. Please, let’s stop it.”

Robert Fico

Slovakia’s populist Prime Minister Robert Fico was wounded in a shooting at an event Wednesday afternoon, according to his Facebook profile.  (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

President-elect Peter Pellegrini, an ally of Fico, called the shooting “an unprecedented threat to Slovak democracy. If we express other political opinions with pistols in squares, and not in polling stations, we are jeopardizing everything that we have built together over 31 years of Slovak sovereignty.”

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also denounced the violence.

“Every effort should be made to ensure that violence does not become the norm in any country, form or sphere,” he said.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala chimed in with other world leaders and wished the prime minister a swift recovery, saying “we cannot tolerate violence, there’s no place for it in society.”

The Czech Republic and Slovakia formed Czechoslovakia until 1992.

A suspect being arrested

The man accused of shooting Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico during an event in the town of Handlova, Slovakia, on Wednesday, was arrested by police quickly after the incident. (Radovan Stoklasa/TASR via AP)

 

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Fico, a divisive figure in Slovakia, returned to power last year after campaigning on a pro-Russian, anti-American platform. 

At the time, European Union members expressed worry that he could potentially lead Slovakia – a nation of 5.4 million that belongs to NATO – to abandon its pro-Western course.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Slovakia PM Robert Fico in ‘very serious’ condition after being shot

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Slovakia PM Robert Fico in ‘very serious’ condition after being shot

Deputy PM Kalinak says Fico is stable post-surgery after being shot five times in an attempted assassination.

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is stable but his condition remains “very serious”, his deputy has said, after an assassination attempt that shocked the country and drew global condemnation.

Fico, 59, was shot five times in the central town of Handlova on Wednesday. He was in critical condition and underwent several hours of emergency surgery.

“During the night, doctors managed to stabilise the patient’s condition,” Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kalinak said on Thursday.

“Unfortunately, the condition is still very serious as the injuries are complicated,” said Kalinak, who is also the defence minister.

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A state security council meeting is scheduled for Thursday following the attack. The alleged attacker, a 71-year-old writer, was taken into custody.

Environment Minister Tomas Taraba told the BBC on Thursday that the operation had “gone well”. He said one bullet went through Fico’s stomach, and the second hit a joint during the attack after Fico left a government meeting.

The shooting was “politically motivated”, Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok said on Wednesday.

“This assassination [attempt] was politically motivated, and the perpetrator’s decision was born closely after the presidential election,” Sutaj Estok said, referring to an April election won by Fico’s ally, Peter Pellegrini.

Pellegrini described the attack as an “unprecedented threat to Slovak democracy”.

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“If we express other political opinions in squares, and not in polling stations, we are jeopardising everything that we have built together over 31 years of Slovak sovereignty,” Pellegrini said.

A man is detained after Slovak PM Robert Fico was shot multiple times, in Handlova, Slovakia [File: Radovan Stoklasa/Reuters]

Following the attack, Fico was rushed to a hospital in Handlova but was transferred by helicopter to the regional capital, Banska Bystrica, for urgent treatment.

Russia said it considered the attack “absolutely unacceptable”.

“This is really a great tragedy,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

Fico’s European counterparts, including Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, condemned the shooting and wished him a complete recovery.

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The country of 5.4 million has seen polarised political debate in recent years, including last year’s presidential election that helped Fico tighten his grip on power.

Since returning as prime minister last October, his government has scaled back support for Ukraine while opening up dialogue with Russia, looked to lessen punishments for corruption, and is revamping the RTVS public broadcaster despite a call to protect media freedoms.

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