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Analysis: The EU's €7.4-billion bet on Egypt comes with high risks

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Analysis: The EU's €7.4-billion bet on Egypt comes with high risks

After Tunisia and Mauritania, the European Union has found a new “strategic” partner to curb irregular migration: Egypt.

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The European Union over the weekend signed a €7.4 billion “comprehensive partnership” with Egypt, a number well over the €700 million and €210 million deals respectively struck with Tunisia and Mauritania.

The logic behind the three deals is however the same: to inject fresh money to help stabilise a wobbly economy and curb flows of irregular migration. 

As European Commission President Ursuval von der Leyen said from Cairo, Egypt could not be avoided “given your political and economic weight, as well as your strategic location in a very troubled neighbourhood, the importance of our relations will only increase over time”. 

For Egypt, the need is particularly pressing: the country is in the midst of a devastating crisis caused by a perfect storm of high inflation, heavy debt, persistent trade deficit, rising interest rates and a shortage of foreign currency. The woes have been made considerably worse by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which disrupted global wheat markets and pushed food prices to record highs, and the Houthi attacks on the Suez Canal, which have partially deprived Cairo of $10 billion in annual revenues.

The spiralling turmoil led Egypt to request its fourth loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 2016 worth $8 billion (€7.3 billion). In exchange, the country has agreed to devalue its national currency, introduce a floating exchange rate, slow down its spending on infrastructure and preserve debt sustainability.

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The €7.4-billion deal with the EU also has a strong economic dimension: €5 billion in concessional loans to support Egypt’s macro-economic reforms and €1.8 billion in additional investments under the bloc’s neighbouring policy, to boost renewable energy and digital connectivity. On migration management, the agreement earmarks €200 million to crack down on human smuggling and trafficking as part of a wider package of €600 million in non-repayable grants.

At first glance, the €200-million envelope appears small in comparison, especially given that curbing irregular migration is a priority shared by all 27 member states, regardless of their political inclination, and that Egypt currently hosts over 500,000 refugees from nearby countries, mostly Sudan and Syria.

But Brussels sees things holistically: putting cash in one place can spill over into others. Under this thinking, boosting Egypt’s domestic economy can do as much – or perhaps even more – to control irregular migration than boosting actual border controls.

In the past few years, the EU has seen a dramatic rise in asylum applications by Egyptian nationals: from 6,616 in 2021 to 26,512 in 2023, according to the bloc’s asylum agency (EUAA). Most of these claims were registered in Italy (69%), followed by Greece at a distant second (9%). This helps explain why Prime Ministers Giorgia Meloni and Kyriakos Mitsotakis joined von der Leyen’s trip.

Notably, the marked increase in requests for international protection has not corresponded with a proportional increase in recognition rates. The EUAA estimates between 6 and 7% of these requests were successful, a very low number.

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“Egyptians who migrate abroad are understood to be influenced primarily by economic factors and the search for employment,” the agency said in a study published in 2022, to explain why most of these applications for international protection were rejected.

The findings note that Egyptians seeking to reach Europe do not depart from Egyptian shores, as maritime borders are carefully guarded. Instead, most travel to Lybia, and then attempt to cross the Mediterranean Sea. A minority opts to fly to Turkey and try to enter the bloc via Bulgaria or Greece. 

Additionally, the agency highlights Egypt’s position as a transit country for migrants coming from the Horn of Africa, who often rely on the same smugglers as Egyptians do.

‘Untied and undesignated’

The agency, however, points out two additional “push factors” that are driving the exodus of Egyptian nationals: the repression of human rights and the “security situation,” a reference to the anti-terrorism campaign in the Sinai peninsula.

Since the 2013 coup, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a former general, has strengthened his grip on power, expanded his presidential prerogatives and deepened the military’s role in civilian life, prompting accusations of clientelism, cronyism and corruption.

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As a result, organizations like Freedom House, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International describe Egypt as an authoritarian country where freedom of expression and assembly are legally recognised but severely restricted in practice. Courts, media and the private sector are subservient to the state and discrimination against minorities, such as LGBTQ+ people, Coptic Christians, Shiites and people of colour, is widespread. The reported use of torture and forced disappearance against political critics and dissenters have equally caused international alarm.

During her press conference with al-Sisi, von der Leyen vowed to “promote democracy and human rights” but did not elaborate further.

A Commission spokesperson later said human rights have been part of EU-Egypt relations since the entry into force of the Association Agreement in 2004 and would continue to be so under the reinforced partnership.

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“There are many issues that need to be dealt with that require that we work with Egypt. We cannot pretend this country does not exist nor can we simply ignore it,” the spokesperson said, highlighting the work done to bring relief into the Gaza Strip.

The €5 billion in concessional loans will be disbursed under the agreement of “policy reforms,” the executive explained, but the ultimate use of this money, which will be wired straight into the Egyptian treasury, will be “untied and undesignated,” meaning the government will enjoy a comfortable margin of discretion for spending.

This big bet is flawed, says Claudio Francavilla, an associate director at Human Rights Watch, because it is overly focused on the fight against human trafficking and fails to address the rule-of-law decline that has contributed to the economic turmoil and pushed investors away from the country. Both the IMF and the EU statements spoke of the need to restore “confidence” to bring back foreign investment. 

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“The economic crisis in Egypt is very, very deeply intertwined with the human rights crisis,” Francavilla told Euronews.

“Egypt has pretty much a military authoritarian leadership that strangles every part of life in the country, including the economy, and through its repression has gotten rid that anything that resembles checks and balances on the power.”

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“If you don’t address those issues, you’re simply kicking the can down the road,” he added. “The next crisis is just around the corner.”

Sara Prestianni, director of advocacy at EuroMed Rights, a human rights network, called on the bloc to make a “clear” link between pay-outs and the rule of law. Otherwise, the partnership “risks being only a legitimisation of the authoritarian drift that characterises al-Sissi’s regimes today. So, all these types of reforms, all this cooperation, must be strictly linked to conditionalities of respect for fundamental rights of the rule of law.”

Even if the Egyptian economy were to find a stable footing and Egyptian citizens had fewer reasons to leave their home country, as Brussels hopes under the multi-billion plan, there would still be an unresolved question over the fate of the Sudanese people and other nationalities who have sought refuge in the country or transit through its territory.

The European pressure to decrease irregular departures could encourage the Egyptian authorities to double down on their “repressive tools,” warns Andrew Geddes, the director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute (EUI), leading to greater suffering for those feeling war-torn nations.

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“Asylum seekers in Egypt are very heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance, live in very bad conditions and have high unemployment levels. It’s unlikely that the resources provided by the EU will be directed by the Egyptian authorities to improve this situation,” Geddes told Euronews, calling the partnership a “transactional agreement.”

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“The situation for asylum-seekers and refugees in Egypt may deteriorate and, for those that do try to move, the journeys may become even more dangerous and deadly.”

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Denise Powell wins Democratic primary in Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’ 2nd District

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Denise Powell wins Democratic primary in Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’ 2nd District

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Denise Powell won the Democratic primary in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on Wednesday in a contest focused on the state’s “blue dot” status in presidential elections.

The Omaha-area district, where Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon is retiring, is one of Democrats’ biggest targets this midterm season. It’s also a national focus every four years in presidential contests because Nebraska is one of just two states that splits its electoral votes. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 — a “blue dot” in an otherwise sea of red.

Powell, a political activist, defeated state Sen. John Cavanaugh and several other candidates in the Democratic primary. She and Cavanaugh were in a tight race that could not be called Tuesday.

Powell will face Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member endorsed by President Donald Trump. He ran unopposed in Tuesday’s GOP primary.

“This country and Nebraska are worth fighting for — and I’m ready to spend the next six months working for every vote and sharing my vision for Nebraska so we can finally have a representative in Congress who will serve us,” Powell said in a statement. “It’s time to be brave.”

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Powell led Cavanaugh by 2.1 percentage points, or 1,080 votes, out of more than 51,000 votes counted.

AP called the race after Douglas County election officials said there were only 5,125 outstanding mail-in ballots in the Democratic primary, and a total of 830 provisional ballots from all political parties. Even if all those ballots are counted in the Democratic primary, Cavanaugh would have to win them by about 18 percentage points over Powell to close the gap, a margin he didn’t come close to achieving in any of the five vote updates provided by Douglas County so far. Cavanaugh trailed in all three counties in the district, though Douglas accounted for about 93% of the votes.

The matchup between Powell and Harding is expected to be among this fall’s most competitive House races, as Democrats try to win control of the chamber for the second half of Trump’s term.

The 2nd District is one of just three districts in the country that supported Democrat Kamala Harris for president in 2024 while also electing a Republican representative. Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms.

The Nebraska GOP said in a statement Wednesday that Republicans are ready to fight back against a “radical left” that has poured money into the state.

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“The left wants Nebraska, and we are going to make sure they don’t get it,” said NEGOP Chairman Mary Jane Truemper.

Powell, who is Latina, co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and she has a decade of Democratic political activism. She had the backing of EMILY’s List and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign operation.

Powell has never held office but said her deep connections have helped her with independents and third-party voters, who make up nearly 30% of the district’s electorate.

Some Democratic critics argued that a Cavanaugh primary victory would have jeopardized the district’s “blue dot” status because he’d be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.

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Peoples reported from New York.

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Iran says its small subs deployed to Strait of Hormuz as expert explains threat: ‘Vulnerable to detection’

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Iran says its small subs deployed to Strait of Hormuz as expert explains threat: ‘Vulnerable to detection’

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Iran says it has deployed small submarines to act as an “invisible guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz amid a series of rejected peace deals between Tehran and the U.S., according to reports.

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The deployment claim came as analysts said that although the Iranian Ghadir-class mini-subs could threaten U.S. naval forces, the vessels’ limited range, firepower and endurance would blunt any real strategic impact.

The submarine deployment was highlighted by Bloomberg and first reported by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of Iran’s navy, said that his forces deployed its light submarine, referred to as the “dolphins of the Persian Gulf,” according to the Iranian state media outlet.

IRAN TURNS TO PUTIN AS US TALKS COLLAPSE, HORMUZ STANDOFF THREATENS GLOBAL OIL FLOW

Iran claims that it has deployed small submarines to act as an “invisible guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz. (Vahid Reza Alaei / AFP via Getty Images, File)

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It also comes as Tehran seeks to reinforce its control over the strait, now defining it as a far larger zone, Reuters reported.

“Time would be limited, probably a couple of days at the most,” defense analyst Tom Shugart told Fox News Digital about the Iranian vessel deployment.

The retired U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer also said the small diesel-electric submarines face fundamental operational constraints.

IRAN HOLDS WORLD ENERGY HOSTAGE WITH ‘NIGHTMARE’ STRAIT OF HORMUZ SEA MINES, FORMER CENTCOM OFFICIAL WARNS

U.S. Marines aboard USS New Orleans (LPD 18) stand watch in the Arabian Sea during naval blockade operations against Iran. (U.S. Central Command)

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“If they run their diesel engines to snorkel and recharge batteries, that could generate sound that could be detected,” Shugart said.

“Their snorkel mast projecting from the water could be detected by radars on patrol aircraft or helicopters,” Shugart added.

The submarines are said to be designed for shallow waters like the Strait of Hormuz and can operate quietly for limited periods on battery power.

“While they may be able to sit on the bottom for a while and operate somewhat quietly on their batteries for a while, they have no air-independent propulsion system (AIP) like more modern diesel-electric submarines,” Shugart said before adding that they’ll, “eventually have to come up and snorkel. This will make them more vulnerable to detection and destruction.”

INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL

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A navy vessel sails in the Strait of Hormuz. (Sahar Al Attar / AFP via Getty Images)

The IRGC Navy is said to be the sole operator of this class of submarine, all of which serve in the Southern Fleet.

“Any remaining Ghadirs, if they exist and are actually deployed, may be able to lay mines and may be able to threaten merchant ships,” Shugart warned.

“But I don’t see them as a serious threat to U.S. Navy warships — and certainly not to U.S. submarines,” he said.

“But I can say for sure that I wouldn’t want to go out on one in the current environment.”

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HORMUZ CHOKE POINT PERSISTS AS IRAN HALTS OIL TRAFFIC DESPITE TRUMP CEASEFIRE

The U.S. Navy confirmed May 10 that a U.S. Navy Ohio-class nuclear-armed submarine had arrived in Gibraltar.

“The port visit demonstrates U.S. capability, flexibility and continuing commitment to its NATO allies,” U.S. Sixth Fleet Public Affairs said in a statement.

“Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are undetectable launch platforms for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, providing the U.S. with its most survivable leg of the nuclear triad,” it added.

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Meanwhile, Shugart’s remarks came as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial tanker traffic largely choked off amid ongoing military activity and the continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

The United Arab Emirates and South Korea reported new strikes on stranded vessels Wednesday, while the IRGC increased its fast-attack craft activity, according to reports.

President Donald Trump has maintained Iran’s navy is “completely obliterated.”

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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Iran war: Why the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in India matters

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Iran war: Why the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in India matters

India is hosting a meeting of foreign ministers from BRICS nations on May 14-15 in a precursor to the 18th BRICS summit, which New Delhi will host in September. The meeting, which starts on Thursday morning, coincides with United States President Donald Trump’s three-day visit to Beijing for a state visit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Here is more about the foreign ministers’ meeting, who is attending and why it matters.

What is BRICS?

BRICS is a grouping of major emerging economies seeking to coordinate security and economic policy in order to amplify the demands of the Global South at international organisations and on issues where the West has traditionally dominated economically and politically.

The acronym stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The organisation was called BRIC in its initial form – Brazil, Russia, India and China – when its foreign ministers began meeting in 2006, and when it held its first summit in 2009. It became BRICS when South Africa joined in 2010.

In 2023, BRICS extended invitations to Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates after these countries applied for membership. Saudi Arabia has yet to formally join, but the others have. An invitation was also extended to Argentina, but was turned down as President Javier Milei, elected in December 2023, had campaigned on the promise of bolstering ties with the West.

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Indonesia joined the group in January 2025, after its membership was approved during the summit in 2023 in Johannesburg.

The group sets priorities and holds discussions at an annual summit, which members take turns hosting. Last year, Brazil hosted the BRICS meeting and, in 2024, Russia hosted the annual meeting. This year, it is India’s turn to host.

This week’s meeting in New Delhi will bring together the foreign ministers of BRICS countries, who are expected to discuss economic cooperation and coordinate their positions on key global issues.

When and where is the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting?

The BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting, held to prepare for the 18th BRICS summit in September, will take place on Thursday, May 14, and Friday, May 15, in New Delhi, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said on Tuesday.

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On Thursday, foreign ministers are expected to arrive at 10:00am (04:30 GMT), and sessions are expected to take place throughout the day, concluding with a dinner at 7pm (01:30 GMT).

On Friday, one session is expected to take place, starting at 10:00am (04:30 GMT).

All of the meetings except one will take place in Bharat Mandapam, an exhibition hall and convention centre located close to the Supreme Court of India.

On Thursday at 1pm (07:30 GMT), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will join a joint conference call with the visiting leaders from Seva Teerth, a new administrative complex that serves as the official headquarters of the prime minister’s office.

Who is attending the meeting?

Foreign ministers from within and outside the BRICS group are expected to attend the meeting.

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The Russian Foreign Ministry has said that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will attend the meeting. South Africa’s Ronald Lamola and Brazil’s Mauro Vieira are also both attending.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will not attend due to Trump’s visit to Beijing. Instead, China will be represented by China’s Ambassador to India Xu Feihong, Indian media has reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has landed in New Delhi to participate. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono also arrived in New Delhi on Wednesday.

It is not clear who will be representing the UAE at the BRICS meeting, even as the US-Israel war on Iran exacerbates tensions between the UAE and Iran.

brics
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attends an online meeting with South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa and other leaders of BRICS nations, in Sochi, Russia, on September 8, 2025 [File: Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via Reuters]

What’s on the agenda?

The theme of this meeting is “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability”, according to India’s Foreign Ministry. This will focus on “people-centric and holistic healthcare, with an emphasis on collaboration on pressing health challenges, including communicable and non-communicable diseases”, it added.

However, the ongoing war on Iran is likely to dominate, and discussions will set the agenda for the annual BRICS summit in September, observers say.

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“The Iran war is likely to cast a shadow over both the BRICS summit and the Trump-Xi meeting,” Rafael Loss, a policy fellow for defence, security and technology at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Al Jazeera.

The war on Iran entered its 76th day on Thursday, with diplomatic efforts to end the conflict hanging in the balance.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that, as well as taking part in the main BRICS sessions, Araghchi will hold separate meetings with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and other officials attending the meeting.

In April this year, India hosted a BRICS Deputy Foreign Ministers and Special Envoys for the Middle East and North Africa meeting in New Delhi. That gathering ended without a joint statement after Iran and the UAE clashed over how to address the US-Israeli war on Iran, with the UAE also seeing itself as a victim of Iranian aggression.

Since then, tensions between Iran and the UAE have only risen, with Tehran’s war messaging increasingly targeting the UAE.

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Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza is also another point of stress within the bloc. At the April meeting, India – recently an Israeli ally – attempted to soften criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, leading to a failure within the bloc to arrive at a consensus on the subject.

“The meeting in India occurs at a difficult time in which the cohesion of the BRICS confronts challenges due to the closer relations of India with the US and Israel, and the conflict in West Asia between Iran and the UAE,” Michael Dunford, emeritus professor at the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex, UK, told Al Jazeera.

What about Trump’s meeting with Xi at the same time?

Trump landed in China on Wednesday evening and, after a ceremonial welcome, headed straight to his hotel. On Thursday, he will hold bilateral talks with the Chinese president, and will also join President Xi for a working lunch on Friday, before flying back to the US.

“A consequence of the coincidence of Trump’s visit to China with the BRICS foreign ministers’ summit in India is that Wang Yi will not attend, with China represented by its Indian ambassador Xu Feihong,” Dunford said.

ECFR’s Rafael Loss predicted that Trump is likely to try to convince Xi to put pressure on Iran to accommodate US demands to end the naval standoff in the Gulf and open the Strait of Hormuz.

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In the past, he said, China avoided getting involved in protracted international conflict management efforts and instead attempted to “swoop in” to seal deals during the final stages, such as in the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalisation agreement of 2023, which has since collapsed.

“But if the price is right, and with Trump’s short-termism and disregard of traditional US allies, Xi could be persuaded to take a more vocal line vis-a-vis Iran,” Loss said. “Taiwan might end up bearing the brunt.”

How significant is this meeting?

This meeting of foreign ministers also comes amid an energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war on Iran.

Since early March, Iran has restricted shipping through the strait, a narrow waterway linking Gulf oil producers to the open ocean and through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped before the war. Iran has allowed passage by vessels from select countries, but they are required to negotiate transit with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iranian attacks on US assets and oil and gas facilities in the Gulf in the early weeks of the war have also affected energy supplies.

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In April, the US announced a naval blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, further adding to the disruption of global oil and gas supplies.

This has had a direct impact on several BRICS members. Both India and China rely heavily on Gulf oil shipped through the strait. Saudi Arabia and the UAE both ship oil through the strait. While Brazil, Egypt and South Africa are not as directly reliant on the oil that moves through the strait, they are impacted by rapidly rising fuel prices.

“It is unlikely that the BRICS summit will produce a consensus statement that goes beyond condemning attacks on nations’ sovereignty in general terms as BRICS has opted to do in the past, including on Russia’s war against Ukraine,” ECFR’s Loss said.

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