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Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Where The Feds Go To “Retreat”

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Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Where The Feds Go To “Retreat”


Jackson Gap, Wyoming is the place Federal Reserve Financial institution huge photographs go in late August to ponder not nature however the course of rates of interest and the entire associated financial issues that go together with it. The largest of the Fed huge photographs, Chairperson Jerome Powell is extensively anticipated to proclaim the necessity for even greater rates of interest to “fight” inflation.

It’s referred to as a “retreat” and when you obtain an invite from the host, the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Kansas Metropolis, you’re positively on the A-list of those that rely among the many nation’s economists. The thought is that if they will get away from the drab places of work within the huge cities, possibly a brand new thought will pop into their heads, nevertheless unlikely that will appear.

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The priority this yr is that inflation stays at ranges thought of within the “too excessive” vary. That is regardless of the latest drop within the worth of gasoline on the pump. The issue stays with the lofty CPI and PPI numbers – these want to come back down based on those that carefully and religiously apply the dismal science of economics.

So, the answer, extensively acknowledged by specialists and monetary journalists, is to maintain elevating rates of interest and that’s what Jerome Powell might be expressing when he makes his huge speech on Friday. How a lot of a rise is debated far and extensive however it’s more likely to be one other ¾% upward for the fed funds fee.

They need the inventory market and the actual property market to chill off much more than they’ve already cooled off. How that is associated to the CPI and the PPI is the topic of many economics PhD dissertations which may very well be discovered and studied, however the primary factor is: if Powell and the retreat crowd say rates of interest must go up, then they’re going up.

Loads of that is already priced in over on the bond market the place the 2-year Treasury notice and the 10-year Treasury notice are flirting with a lot greater yields than anticipated.

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Right here’s the point-and-figure chart for the 2-year yield:

Notice how the yield is breaking above that long-term downtrend line (in crimson) for the primary time in lots of, a few years. There are already many extra sellers than patrons of the 2-12 months notice because the yield climb greater to draw curiosity. To place it one other method, this a part of the bond market is already pricing in what Chair Powell is about to proclaim.

Right here’s the chart for the 10-12 months Treasury Notice yield:

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Certainly, even the 10-12 months yield is breaking above the long-term downtrend line in crimson. That each the 2-12 months and the 10-12 months yield are already on their method greater confirms simply how “priced in” Powell’s remarks are – and he hasn’t even uttered them but.

This new course for rates of interest is sort of a change from the latest previous and carries with it deep issues for no matter comes subsequent within the economic system. How a lot additional can these yields go earlier than Fed officers determine to carry off and work towards decrease ranges? That relies on the following few month’s CPI and PPI readings.

Right here’s hoping that Federal Reserve Financial institution huge photographs benefit from the magnificence and quiet of Jackson Gap, Wyoming. It’s unlikely they’ll be having fun with magnificence and quiet this winter because the more and more greater rates of interest designed to decrease inflation even have the impact of halting development in actual property and shares.

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Not funding recommendation. For instructional functions solely.



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Wyoming

Border War 2024: CSU Rams vs. Wyoming Cowboys

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Border War 2024: CSU Rams vs. Wyoming Cowboys


AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Running back Avery Morrow (25) of the Colorado State Rams sheds a tackle attempt by defensive back Wrook Brown (2) of the Wyoming Cowboys during the first half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz

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FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Running back Avery Morrow (25) of the Colorado State Rams runs against the Wyoming Cowboys during the first half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Linebacker Connor Shay (33) of the Wyoming Cowboys tackles tight end Peter Montini (44) of the Colorado State Rams during the first half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Running back Avery Morrow (25) of the Colorado State Rams collides with defensive back Wrook Brown (2) of the Wyoming Cowboys during the first half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

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COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Head coach Jay Norvell of the Colorado State Rams jumps into the arms of quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (16) after the quarterback caught a receiving touchdown against the Wyoming Cowboys during the first half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Linebacker Connor Shay (33) of the Wyoming Cowboys tackles running back Justin Marshall (29) of the Colorado State Rams during the first half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz

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FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Wide receiver Dane Olson (81) of the Colorado State Rams takes the field bearing a flag before the first half against the Wyoming Cowboys at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Defensive back Jace Bellah (12) of the Colorado State Rams hits quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (16) of the Colorado State Rams during the second half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Defensive back Dom Jones (7) of the Colorado State Rams tackles tight end Nick Miles (86) of the Wyoming Cowboys during the second half at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

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COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: The Colorado State Rams celebrate with the Bronze Boot after the fourth quarter of CSU’s 24-10 Border War win over the Wyoming Cowboys at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

COLORADO STATE RAMS V WYOMING COWBOYS, FBS

AAron Ontiveroz


FORT COLLINS, CO – NOVEMBER 15: Linebacker Chase Wilson (30) of the Colorado State Rams celebrates with the Bronze Boot after the fourth quarter of CSU’s 24-10 Border War win over the Wyoming Cowboys at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado on Friday, November 15, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)



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Wyoming Cowboys to host Utah Tech Saturday

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Wyoming Cowboys to host Utah Tech Saturday


LARAMIE, Wyo. — The Wyoming Cowboys return to the friendly confines of the Arena-Auditorium on Saturday evening when they host Utah Tech at 7 p.m. It is just the second-ever meeting between the two schools, the first taking place in 2018.

Wyoming is 2–1 on the season after falling on the road at Texas Tech 96–49 on Wednesday.

The Pokes are shooting 47.7% from the field on the season, while opponents have shot 46.5%.

UW has also established itself as one of the better rebounding squads in the Mountain West Conference, as the 40 boards per game are the fourth-best average in the league.

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The Trailblazers head into the game with a 1–2 record. Utah Tech defeated Bethesda 90–59 on Wednesday after falling to Oregon State and New Mexico State to start the season.

The Trailblazers have a team field goal percentage of 36.9% while their opponents shoot 45.4%.

UW Cowboy Obi Agbim leads the team in scoring with 21.3 points per game. He also contributes 3.7 assists per game. Jordan Nesbitt and Kobe Newton join Agbin in double-digit scoring, with each averaging 10 points per game. Nesbitt also leads the team’s rebounding efforts with 9 per game.

Utah Tech is led in scoring by Noa Gonsalves’s 14.3 points per game. He also leads the team with seven 3-pointers. Beon Riley adds 12.7 points per game and leads the team with 8.7 rebounds per contest.

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Legislative Leaders Debate Tax Relief, Visions For Wyoming’s Future

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Legislative Leaders Debate Tax Relief, Visions For Wyoming’s Future


When Senate President Ogden Driskill, R-Devils Tower, and state Rep. John Bear, R-Gillette, met on stage at the Wyoming Business Alliance’s Governor Business Forum in Laramie on Thursday, it was a collision of outgoing and incoming visions about what Wyoming’s state government should look like.

Driskill is at the end of his term as Senate president while Bear will likely be the next chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, the premier committee for drafting the state’s biennial and supplemental budgets.

Driskill will still serve in the Legislature until at least 2026, but it will be up to the next Senate president to determine his committee assignments.

Bear and Driskill disagreed on many topics Thursday, but agreed they share a desire to do what they believe is right for Wyoming.

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“We can butt heads as long as they’re not bloody, and this is how you get to better policy,” Driskill said. “At some point in time you find yourself to the middle.”

Rep. Trey Sherwood, D-Laramie, was also part of the panel discussion. She and Driskill said they want to see policy driven by Wyoming problems rather than national headlines, an approach many have accused members of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus of taking. Bear is the former chairman of the Freedom Caucus.

The Role Of Government

Bear believes Wyoming government can do better than it is and wants to help advance President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda in the state.

He said he believes Trump’s administration will have a significant positive impact on Wyoming’s coal industry, while Driskill was a little more pessimistic. 

“I think the election was really clear that there’s a rejection of this climate cultism that says we can’t have carbon at all,” Bear said. 

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More specifically, he believes Wyoming voters passed a clear mandate in support of the Freedom Caucus agenda judging by the results of this year’s election. The Freedom Caucus will take over a majority of seats in the Wyoming House this session.

Sherwood takes a slightly different approach, seeing the state’s budget as a reflection of the Legislature’s shared values.

Next Year’s Budget

Gov. Mark Gordon also unveiled his $692 million supplemental budget Thursday during the forum, which he promoted as being both fiscally conservative and serving the public’s needs. It will be up to the Legislature to decide how much of this budget it wants to approve.

The Legislature will oversee a relatively strong fiscal outlook entering the 2025 session thanks to a Consensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG) report released in October showing an expected $122 million overall revenue surplus compared to what was forecasted for the state in January. 

Bear wants government spending limited to constitutionally mandated items and what the Legislature feels is most needed to help residents.

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Driskill mentioned how the Legislature made $400 million in cuts when he was on the Senate Appropriations Committee. He believes a commonly promoted narrative that the “sky is falling” in Wyoming is false and that the state is in a relatively strong financial position.

Comparing the Wyoming government to the debt and spending of the federal government, he said, is not one in the same.

“Folks, the sky is not falling,” he said. “Wyoming has more money per capita in savings than any other state in the nation.”

Driskill said the correct way to use surplus money is not to send it back to taxpayers, but put it into savings to help the state balance its needs during leaner years. This has generally been the approach of the Legislature over the last few decades.

Over the past two years, the Legislature has put nearly $3 billion into savings partially thanks to a large uptick in investment interest income. It’s Driskill’s goal for 50% to 60% of the general fund spending to funded by investment income.

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Driskill said he isn’t worried about being able to support the state’s short-term needs and that supporting the needs of Wyoming’s children and grandchildren is who a large savings account will benefit.

“That’s what I look at when I put money into savings,” Driskill said. “It’s not for me, it’s for the future generations and I want to have something left with that wealth that Wyoming has.”

He also mentioned how the Legislature performed some fiscal maneuvering in order to put federal COVID-19 funds into savings rather than using it for its intended immediate use.

From left, state Reps. Trey Sherwood, John Bear and Senate President Ogden Driskill debate tax relief and their visions for Wyoming’s future Thursday in Laramie at the Wyoming Business Alliance’s Governor Business Forum. (Renee Jean, Cowboy State Daily)

The Role Of Government

Driskill also argued that business corporations usually don’t make cuts during profitable years, but rather make investments in their business, and said the Legislature should take the same approach.

“Let’s not cut ourselves in a prosperous time,” Driskill said, receiving applause from the audience.

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Although Driskill said that businesses are simply looking for a stable and predictable government when they move to a state, Bear countered that putting more money into the economy is not a destabilizing measure.

Bear said unlike a business, the government takes money out of the economy and produces no physical products.

“The more money we take out of the economy is less money that you all can invest in things like housing for your workforce,” he said.

Driskill mentioned how a TerraPower nuclear reactor in Kemmerer has been opposed by some conservatives in Wyoming because billionaire Bill Gates is behind it.

Driskill doesn’t share those concerns and said the Legislature shouldn’t be turning away any business as long as there’s a fair playing field and it doesn’t negatively affect the state.

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“I don’t care who comes, I want investment in Wyoming, I want jobs in Wyoming,” Driskill said. “If it means it’s Bill Gates, I welcome him. If it’s Warren Buffett, Rocky Mountain Power — if they want to play fair and play good, I welcome them.”

Driskill believes the government can invest in economic growth by offering grants to private industries.

“I’m one of the ones who does believe government has a role,” he said.

Property Taxes

Bear believes the voters are clearly demanding property tax relief, a solution he said could be engineered by making budget cuts. He said the taxpayers have already given the state a generous amount of money over the last few years due to the rising property taxes.

“Now, it’s time to give a little bit of relief in that area,” he said.

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Although Driskill agrees rising property taxes is a significant issue for Wyoming, he doesn’t believe tax cuts should be paid for by taking money out of the general fund, where a significant portion of the account is funded by mineral revenues. 

This is the same reason why Gordon vetoed a bill that would have provided tax relief last year because of its dependence on the general fund, which the governor saw as using one sector of the economy to unfairly subsidize another. He defended that veto again during a press conference Thursday.

Driskill also doesn’t want ultra-wealthy residents who only live in Wyoming a small portion of the year to receive these same cuts.

“I think he needs to continue to pay a fairly high rate on his $30 million house,” he said of this demographic, also drawing a short applause. “I want relief to go where it needs to go.”

Bear wants tax cuts levied across the board not just for residential taxes, but also for other sectors like agriculture and minerals that would be paid for by making governmental cuts in other areas. He mentioned how Wyoming still has the most state employees per capita in the nation.

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Leo Wolfson can be reached at leo@cowboystatedaily.com.



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