Three months in the past in our quarterly record of the highest 10 more than likely Democratic candidates for president in 2020, we modified issues up. For some time, we had been rating solely the candidates not named Joe Biden. Within the seemingly unlikely situation he didn’t run once more, the thought was, right here’s who can be subsequent in line.
Washington
Analysis | The top 10 Democratic candidates for president in 2024, ranked
However that situation gave the impression to be rising extra possible, so we determined to additionally embrace Biden on the record. The explanation: There may come a time when the incumbent president isn’t the more than likely nominee the following time round, for no matter cause. And his personal 2024 maneuverings have been out of the blue very a lot value evaluating in actual time.
He’s nonetheless the more than likely nominee, and he’s nonetheless sending the alerts that he really intends to run once more. But it surely’s all wanting considerably extra tenuous than it was even three months in the past.
A ballot this week confirmed that 26 p.c of Democrats needed Biden to be their nominee in 2024, whereas 64 p.c most well-liked “another person.” As Biden’s approval ranking has fallen, he has additionally seen erosion on this query — to the purpose the place about the one analog we will discover in fashionable political historical past is Jimmy Carter.
Individuals like the thought of a hypothetical various, usually way more than the flawed, precise ones. It’s totally potential the president’s numbers will get well if inflation wanes. However many — certainly, most — Democrats, who nonetheless like Biden personally, would like another person on the poll in 2024, not less than proper now. And that’s extremely uncommon.
The principle query from there would appear to be whether or not anybody will problem Biden for the celebration’s nomination — a la Reagan vs. Ford in 1976 or Kennedy vs. Carter in 1980; so far, most everybody insists they’ll defer, as CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere just lately recapped.
However the extra fast query is whether or not present situations tempt Biden to in the end resolve to not run in any respect — and, extra instantly, tempts the celebration to push the 79-year-old in that path. Trendy elections are about base mobilization, in any case, and about the one method Biden appears more likely to get a powerful base turnout is that if Donald Trump or another person the Democratic base hates is the Republican nominee. Even then, it appears a fairly large gamble to place up somebody Democratic voters are so lukewarm on.
With that because the backdrop, right here’s our newest record of the ten more than likely 2024 Democratic nominees. As common, this record components in each probability to run in addition to probability to win in the event that they did run.
Others value mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Stacey Abrams, Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.)
10. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Keep in mind how we talked about just about everybody has indicated they’ll defer to Biden (whether or not or not they might in the end achieve this)? Effectively, the New York congresswoman is the large identify who hasn’t actually performed so. She just lately declined to say whether or not she’ll again Biden in 2024, citing the truth that he’s not working but. However that reality hasn’t stopped others from saying they might stand behind Biden. Ocasio-Cortez, after all, could be very younger. And we shouldn’t essentially take that is posturing for a run; she additionally has an curiosity in assuring Biden caters to her wing of the celebration, in any case. (Earlier rating: 10)
9. Roy Cooper: The North Carolina governor is the would-be hopeful pushed by a set of Democratic strategists who suppose the most effective course is to appoint a Southern governor with confirmed crossover enchantment (which Cooper actually has). Whether or not he has any designs on working is one other matter. The longtime former state lawyer common needed to be talked into working for governor in 2016, in any case. So does he actually have the need to take the following, much-bigger step? It’s a really legitimate query: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) was a number one hopeful in 2020 earlier than he determined he didn’t have the hearth within the stomach. Cooper could make an argument that few on this record could make, having received repeatedly in a state carried by Republican presidential nominees, together with in the identical election. (Earlier rating: 6)
8. Gretchen Whitmer: The Michigan governor checks a variety of packing containers as a well-regarded, confirmed commodity in a swing state. And if she will be able to win her 2022 reelection race — no straightforward proposition on this atmosphere, however one aided by the GOP’s poll issues — she’ll possible vault up this record. Apparently, Whitmer just lately handed on a chance to say whether or not she’d urge Biden to run once more: “, I’m not going to weigh in on whether or not he ought to run,” she stated, including, “If he does run, he’ll have my help.” (Earlier rating: N/A)
7. Gavin Newsom: Maybe no person is making early and fascinating performs nowadays as a lot because the California governor. He just lately launched adverts in Florida aimed toward Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), the second-most-likely 2024 GOP nominee in our rankings. And Newsom has provided not-terribly-subtle criticisms of how his celebration is prosecuting the nationwide political debate. We nonetheless don’t know {that a} former San Francisco mayor is actually what Democrats are on the lookout for, but it surely’s as evident as ever that Newsom is constructing towards one thing, irrespective of how a lot he downplays it. (Earlier rating: 9)
6. Bernie Sanders: Shortly after our final rankings, one thing fascinating occurred: Sanders’s 2020 marketing campaign put out a memo stating that Sanders may run once more, if Biden doesn’t: “Within the occasion of an open 2024 Democratic presidential major, Sen. Sanders has not dominated out one other run for president, so we advise that you simply reply any questions on 2024 with that in thoughts,” the memo informed supporters. The 80-year-old unbiased senator from Vermont had beforehand said that he was “very, not possible” to ever run once more, which on the time took him off this record. After the memo went public, Politico reported that Sanders himself had authorized it. (Earlier rating: N/A)
5. Elizabeth Warren: The senator from Massachusetts has carved out a few of her personal house within the post-Roe v. Wade debate, proposing a crackdown on disaster being pregnant facilities which she stated are sometimes “misleading” efforts to “harass or in any other case frighten people who find themselves pregnant to maintain them from searching for an abortion.” She has incessantly stated she’s working for reelection and never president — however in that present-tense method that doesn’t particularly rule out that altering sooner or later. (Earlier rating: 4)
4. Amy Klobuchar: The very best hope for the senator from Minnesota could be that Biden recovers however decides to not run anyway; her political profile is considerably just like Biden’s — that of a extra conventional, pragmatic politician who isn’t essentially going to wow anybody. It didn’t pan out for her in 2020, however with out Biden within the race and probably with Trump looming as the choice, maybe Democrats could be tempted for the same recipe to what received in 2020. (Earlier rating: 5)
3. Kamala D. Harris: Traditionally, vice presidents have been capable of craft pictures considerably aside from the presidents they serve. However Harris has seen her picture decline proper alongside Biden’s. Simply as Biden seems to be essentially the most unpopular president at this level in his first time period since Harry S. Truman, she is among the most unpopular fashionable vice presidents at this level. She has an even bigger pedestal than anyone on this record within the occasion of a post-Biden race. However the way in which issues are going proper now, she would wish to someway differentiate herself. And that’s not a straightforward trick once you’ve nonetheless obtained your day job. (Earlier rating: 3)
2. Pete Buttigieg: The transportation secretary continues to carve out a probably engaging house in Democratic politics, fairly aside from his Cupboard duties: because the man capable of go on Fox Information and fight the appropriate’s speaking factors in a relaxed and regular method. Most just lately, he did so on a protest of Supreme Court docket Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh at a steakhouse. Much like Newsom, if Democrats are placing a premium on the power to drive a message in opposition to Republicans — a not-insignificant consideration in fashionable politics — Buttigieg makes a variety of sense. (Earlier rating: 2)
1. President Biden: Biden has virtually at all times couched his 2024 plans as saying he “intends” to run, which carries some wiggle room. However The Washington Publish’s Tyler Pager and Michael Scherer reported just lately that it’s not simply idle speak: that Biden’s political operation is doing the belongings you would count on to announce a reelection marketing campaign subsequent 12 months. Biden this week additionally provided an animated response to the ballot talked about above, saying, “Learn the polls, Jack. You guys are all the identical. That ballot confirmed that 92 p.c of Democrats, if I ran, would vote for me.” That’s true, and he nonetheless narrowly led Trump 44-41 in a 2020 rematch, however all that’s within the common election. And polls present considerably fewer Democratic major voters say they might vote to advance him to that contest. (Earlier rating: 1)
Washington
Michigan basketball vs. Washington prediction: Can U-M stay undefeated in Big Ten?
Dusty May: What to know about University of Michigan’s head basketball coach
What to know about University of Michigan head basketball coach Dusty May.
For Michigan basketball, the recent West Coast trip went about as well as hoped.
The No. 24 Wolverines (12-3, 4-0 Big Ten) picked up a pair of double-digit wins against the Big Ten’s Los Angeles-based teams — topping USC, 85-74, last Saturday and then defeating No. 21 UCLA, 94-75, Tuesday night as wildfires raged a few miles away — and now return home looking to make it three consecutive wins against league newcomers, welcoming Washington (10-6, 1-4) to Ann Arbor on Sunday afternoon (2 p.m., Big Ten Network).
The Huskies’ first trip to the Midwest hasn’t started well; they were dog-walked by Michigan State in East Lansing, 88-54, on Thursday. U-W trailed by 29 points at the half (42-13) and by more than 40 points in the second half (82-41 with less than five minutes to play) in an utter annihilation.
After two tight wins in conference play — by three points over Wisconsin and two over Iowa — U-M has won four games in a row by double digits and could make it five straight, with one of the bottom teams in the Big Ten coming to town.
Great Osobor with not-so-great help
U-Dub forward Great Osobor made headlines this offseason when he transferred from Utah State to Washington (following head coach Danny Sprinkle) for a then-record NIL deal worth $2 million.
Apparently, money doesn’t buy wins, because while Osobor has been decent, it hasn’t been nearly enough for the Huskies.
The senior leads the Huskies in scoring (13.8 points per game) and rebounding (8.4) but his efficiency has taken a large drop, as he has shot just 45% from the floor on 3s after hitting at least 57.7% in each of his first three college seasons. Some of that might be attributable to his increased 3-point tries — after attempting just 18 3s (and making four, for a 22.2% success rate) in his first 104 games, he has 14 3-point tries in 16 games this season (with only two makes, a 15.3% rate). More concerning is his 2-point shooting percentage: After hitting 59.1% last season, he’s at 47.7% inside the arc this season.
He has scored in double figures in 11 games with the Huskies, though much of his success came in a weak nonconference schedule. Though he put up 20 points and 14 rebounds vs. Maryland, he had just nine points and three boards vs. USC and a combined 15 points and eight rebounds vs. Illinois and MSU.
Sophomore guard Tyler Harris (Portland) is next at 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while freshman point guard Zoom Diallo, a top-50 recruit according to 247 Sports’ composite rankings, averages 10.8 points per contest for Sprinkle’s team.
Overall, U-Dub is simply not up to Big Ten standard. On defense, the Huskies are No. 7 nationally in limiting 3-pointers (28%) and No. 69 in efficiency (99.9), per KenPom, but on offense, the Huskies are No. 149 in efficiency (107.4), No. 201 in 2-point shooting (50.1%) and No. 240 on 3s (32%).
Depth on display
The Wolverines, meanwhile, continue to flex their depth and balance with each passing game.
Michigan just defeated UCLA by 19 on the road and did so by scoring 94 points (the most a Mick Cronin team has ever allowed at home) without perhaps its most proven guard: Roddy Gayle Jr. (knee bruise) missed Tuesday’s game vs. the Bruins. U-M coach Dusty May said then it was too early to say if he’d play Sunday.
“Long-term health is priority No. 1 for us,” May said. “But I would say he’ll be back relatively soon.”
Gayle is one of five U-M players scoring in double figures for May in his first season in Ann Arbor. After putting up a career-high 36 points vs. the Bruins, center Vlad Goldin now leads the Wolverines at 15.8 points per game. Point guard Tre Donaldson (13.1 points) is next while Danny Wolf, Goldin’s frontcourt partner, averages a double-double at 12.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
All three had standout games on the trip; Wolf started the L.A. double-dip becoming just the third NCAA player in more than 20 years with at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and six blocks, and Donaldson made a career-high four 3-pointers vs. USC, then topped it with six vs. UCLA.
And then there’s Gayle (12.4 points) and Nimari Burnett (10.5 points), who are both shooting better than 50% from the floor. Every starter has led the team in scoring at least once this season, a major reason U-M leads the country in 2-point shooting (62%) and effective field goal percentage (60.2%).
“I mean numbers don’t lie,” Donaldson said. “We’re shooting over 60% inside the arc, I mean just continuing to do that. We got big guys out here … with Danny doing what he does in and out. It’s hard to guard. Nobody’s seen nothing like that before.”
Prediction for Michigan basketball vs. Washington
The Wolverines’ outlook is worlds away from a year ago, when it was often U-M on the wrong side of the talent and coaching ledger. U-M is better than Washington in every facet. As long as the Wolverines don’t have a horrendous shooting night, or commit an egregious number of turnovers (they’re 16th nationally, at 15.2 per game), they just have too much talent and depth for U-Dub to slow down. The pick: U-M 88, Washington 68.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
Washington
Six lawmakers to watch in Washington’s 2025 session • Washington State Standard
Washington’s citizen legislature kicks off its 2025 session Monday in Olympia.
Lawmakers will have 105 days to make multi-billion dollar shortfalls disappear from state operations and transportation budgets. They’ll wrangle over policies for capping rent hikes, purchasing guns, providing child care, teaching students, and much, much more. With many new faces, they’ll spend a lot of time getting to know one another as well.
Here are six lawmakers and one statewide executive to keep an eye on when the action begins.
Sen. Jamie Pedersen, Democrat, of Seattle
This is Pedersen’s first session leading the Senate Democrats. He takes over for the longtime majority leader Andy Billig, of Spokane, who retired last year. Pedersen represents one of the most progressive areas in the state, including Seattle’s Capitol Hill, which could indicate a shift in where his caucus is going politically. His new gig won’t be easy as he navigates the needs of 30 Democrats, seeks compromises with his 19 Republican colleagues, and deals with a gaping $12 billion budget hole. He takes the position after years as the majority floor leader, where he was well known for his efficiency, organization and Nordic sweaters.
Rep. Travis Couture, Republican, of Allyn
As the lead Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, Couture will be the point person for his caucus as it looks to block tax bills and push the Legislature to tamp down state spending. This is a new responsibility for him. It will test his mettle to work with Democratic budget writers in both chambers while simultaneously carrying out his role as a vocal critic of Democratic initiatives his caucus opposes most strongly. For Couture, a conservative who some say can at times “sound like a Democrat” it might not be as difficult as it seems.
Sen. Noel Frame, Democrat, of Seattle
Frame stumbled into the spotlight last month after mistakenly sending an email to all senators — instead of just fellow Democrats — outlining ideas for new taxes. Those include taxing wealthy individuals and large businesses — proposals that are getting traction with her progressive colleagues. She also mentioned an excise tax on guns and ammunition sales, a lift of the 1% cap on annual property tax increases and a sales tax on self-storage unit rentals. Frame takes on a new role this year as vice chair of finance on the Senate Ways and Means Committee, giving her power to explore new revenue ideas and making her a central player in talks about how to solve the budget shortfall.
Sen. Matt Boehnke, Republican, of Kennewick
Boehnke, the top Republican on the Senate Energy, Environment and Technology Committee, is out to retool climate change laws passed by Democrats and outgoing Gov. Jay Inslee. He wants, for example, to repeal a law requiring Washington to adopt California’s tough vehicle emission standards for trucks. And he wants to cut the governor out of decision-making on major clean energy projects. Inslee stirred controversy when his actions led to approval of the state’s largest-ever wind farm, near the Tri-Cities, despite concerns from the community where it will be built. That community happens to be in Boehnke’s home county.
Rep. Emily Alvarado, Democrat, of Seattle
Alvarado will be a key lawmaker leading the charge to pass a cap on rent hikes. This was one of the more controversial bills to fail last year, passing the House but failing twice in the Senate. After the bill died, Alvarado said “momentum is building, and next year, I believe we will pass this bill.” She may have more success this time around, especially if she makes her way over to the Senate to fill Sen. Joe Nguyen’s vacancy (Nguyen is leaving to lead the state Department of Commerce. The appointment process for his seat is still ongoing). Democratic leadership said the rent proposal is a priority for their caucuses, and Pedersen said he believes the idea has more support in his chamber this year. But Alvarado still has her work cut out. The bill, which would cap yearly rent increases at 7% for existing renters, is sure to draw fire from powerful real estate groups and Republicans, who warn that capping rents could undercut the construction of new housing and end up hurting renters.
Rep. Jim Walsh, Republican, of Aberdeen
Walsh made The Standard’s list of lawmakers to watch in 2024 because he was a legislator, the chair of the Washington State Republican Party and author of six initiatives, half of which are now law. He makes the cut again because he still wears two political hats giving him two separate pulpits to convey the Republican message. While he’s not pushing any ballot measures, yet, he did launch the state party’s “Project to Resist Tyranny in Washington” as a vehicle for opposing incoming Democratic governor Bob Ferguson.
Washington
Washington lawmakers revive plan for state cap on rent increases • Washington State Standard
Democratic state lawmakers are again pushing a proposal to restrict rent hikes across Washington.
Despite the rent cap bill’s dramatic failure last session, backers say its prospects this year are better given new lawmakers, revamped legislative committees and growing public support. The road to final passage, however, could still be tough.
Rep. Emily Alvarado, D-Seattle, prefiled a “rent stabilization” bill in the House on Thursday. It is similar to where the plan left off last year.
The bill includes a 7% cap on yearly rent increases for existing tenants, with some exceptions, including buildings operated by nonprofits and residential construction that is 10 years old or less. It also requires landlords to give 180 days notice before an increase of 3% or more and limits some move-in and deposit fees.
“People are suffering, and I don’t know how anyone comes back to the legislative session and doesn’t want to support relief,” said Sen. Yasmin Trudeau, D-Tacoma, who will sponsor the legislation in the Senate.
Supporters say the proposal would help tenants and alleviate homelessness, but opponents say a rent cap could only worsen Washington’s housing shortage by disincentivizing new development.
Democratic leaders said Thursday that the proposal will likely be heard quickly in the House after the session kicks off next week but could move slowly in the Senate where it died last year.
Trudeau said the new makeup of the chamber and the membership of key committees could be in the bill’s favor. Last year, supporters blamed moderate Democrats on committees like Ways and Means and Housing for killing the bill. Two of those moderates — Sens. Mark Mullet and Kevin Van De Wege — did not run for reelection last year and will no longer be in the Senate.
Trudeau also said that because the policy is being named early as a priority for their caucus, it will give lawmakers more time to consider it.
“We’re still going to have conflict, just hopefully not as dramatic as last year,” she said.
Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, told reporters Thursday that he believes his caucus is ready to support the bill, but that it would take passing other legislation to increase housing supply and improve affordability.
In the House, the outlook is more certain. “We passed it off the floor in the House last year, and we will pass it off the floor this year,” House Speaker Laurie Jinkins, D-Tacoma, said.
The bill is sure to cause some heavy debate.
Last year, it had support from affordable housing advocates, tenants and labor unions.
Michele Thomas, at the Washington Low Income Housing Alliance, said stabilizing rents is essential to help prevent evictions and homelessness.
“I think lawmakers understand how much rising rents are contributing to housing instability, to homelessness, and to our state’s eviction crisis,” Thomas said.
Among those against the proposal are business groups, landlords and developers.
Sean Flynn, board president and executive director at the Rental Housing Association of Washington, an industry group, criticized the idea, saying it would drive developers out of the state and lead to less home construction.
“The fundamental problem that we have in our housing market is a lack of supply,” Flynn said. “This chokes off supply.”
Instead of a cap on all rents, Flynn said the Legislature should try to target tenants who need assistance most and specific landlords who use predatory rent increases without cause.
One idea that has support from Republicans is creating a tenant assistance program that would give rental assistance vouchers to low-income tenants who may need help paying rent during a given month. Rep. Sam Low, R-Lake Stevens, is sponsoring that bill.
House Minority Leader Drew Stokesbary, R-Auburn, told reporters Thursday his caucus is working on similar proposals with a more targeted approach to helping tenants.
Stokesbary and Senate Minority Leader John Braun, R-Centralia, said their members likely will not support a rent cap policy this session. Stokesbary said he understands the short-term relief of the proposal but that the state ultimately needs more housing.
“In the long-run, this is a much worse deal for renters,” he said.
Braun said lawmakers should find ways to make permitting easier and increase available land for home construction. He said there is “no quick solution” to the state’s housing and homelessness crisis.
But supporters of the rent cap bill push back on the idea that solely building more housing will solve the state’s problems.
Thomas said lawmakers have put a lot of emphasis in recent years on increasing the supply of homes and alleviating homelessness, but they have not passed legislation to help tenants struggling to keep their homes. Failing to do so will only result in higher levels of eviction and homelessness, Thomas said.
“Rent stabilization stands alone,” she said. “Each of these issues are important, and the Legislature needs to address the entire housing ecosystem.”
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