The Big 12 has embraced its place as the Power Four conference with the greatest depth, where the difference between No. 1 and No. 16 is small and the potential for highly competitive games each week is high.
The Hotline generally agrees with this narrative. There are no blue-blood programs stocked with blue-chip talents in the Big 12. There are no equivalents of Ohio State or Georgia. No clear and obvious national title contenders.
That said, nuance is required when assessing the 16-team conference race.
There is a marked difference in roster quality between the top and bottom tiers. A handful of teams could win the conference, and a handful could finish last. But the gap is substantial. Not every game will be close. Not every week will be lined with upsets.
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The Hotline was able to identify teams as contenders, pretenders and also-rans without much trouble. The complexity came when attempting to distinguish teams within each grouping.
We don’t pick ties. We hate picking ties. But there will be ties.
Oh yes, there will be ties.
1. Utah: The Hotline has been asked repeatedly how the Utes will adjust to life in the Big 12. We think the question should be flipped: How will the Big 12 adjust to the Utes? They are the team to beat thanks to the combination of coaching acumen, first-rate quarterback (Cam Rising) and stout offensive and defensive lines. Assuming injuries revert to the norm after a hellacious barrage last season, Utah is the best bet to represent the conference in the CFP.
2. Oklahoma State: We considered picking the Cowboys to win the Big 12 and would not be surprised if they emerge as the last team standing. Coach Mike Gundy has a veteran quarterback (Alan Bowman) and returning starters across all position groups. But every analysis by the Hotline supercomputer spit out the same conclusion: Utah’s offensive line will dominate the head-to-head meetings, in Stillwater and the conference championship.
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3. Kansas State: The Wildcats warrant immense respect after winning 19 games over the past two seasons — don’t be surprised if they end up playing for the conference title. Chris Klieman must retool his offense, with sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson in the lead role, but KSU’s defense should be one of the Big 12’s best. (The secondary is stellar.) And not for nothing: The road schedule is entirely manageable.
4. Arizona: Once first-year coach Brent Brennan secured the core of his roster — only a few players followed Jedd Fisch to Seattle — the Wildcats vaulted onto the top tier of contenders. There’s plenty to like, starting with the elite aerial tandem of quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan. But could unprecedented expectations (both internal and external) change the dynamics and create unexpected potholes?
5. Kansas: The Jayhawks were picked fourth in the Big 12 preseason media poll, which probably pleased coach Lance Leipold. (Let other teams deal with the pressure and bake in the spotlight.) Assuming quarterback Jalon Daniels’ back holds up, KU has more to like than dislike across the two-deep. But we wonder about the front seven, which faces several of the best offensive lines in the conference.
6. Iowa State: After a regression in 2022, coach Matt Campbell re-established his program last season as the Cyclones went 6-3 in league play. Will the trajectory continue, or stall? They are stout throughout many of the key position groups, from quarterback to the lines of scrimmage to the defensive backfield. But the lineup of November opponents is brutal. We expect a fast start and slow finish in Ames.
7. Texas Tech: The Hotline has a slightly more optimistic view of the Red Raiders than other prognosticators, a view based partly on a schedule that does not include Utah, Kansas or Kansas State. That might not seem like much, but one additional victory could be the difference between seventh and 10th place, or eighth and 12th. Also, TTU has one of the top pass-catching groups in the conference.
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8. West Virginia: The Mountaineers won five of their final six games last season, return starting quarterback Garrett Greene and possess a stellar offensive line. So why the modest outlook? Their non-conference schedule is challenging and could exact a toll during the early part of league play, when they face Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona in succession. Relief comes only in November.
9. UCF: The Knight’s first season in the Big 12 started poorly but ended with three wins in the final month. There’s good reason to believe the momentum will carry over for fourth-year coach Gus Malzahn. If quarterback KJ Jefferson plays to his potential after transferring from Arkansas, UCF could sneak into contention.
10. TCU: Sonny Dykes has spent six years as a head coach at the Power Five level, four at Cal and two at TCU. He has one winning season: The improbable, magical run to the national championship game in 2022. So forgive our unwillingness to take a leap of faith with the Horned Frogs, who drew one of the Big 12’s toughest conference schedules. This is a critical year for the Dykes regime.
11. Baylor: Coach Dave Aranda occupies arguably the hottest seat in the conference following two disappointing seasons. It’s difficult to envision a material change in the Bears’ trajectory despite all the returning starters at his disposal. Once momentum is lost and the dark clouds descend, the negativity tends to stick.
12. Cincinnati: The halcyon days of Luke Fickell, Desmond Ridder and Top 25 rankings seem like a decade ago for the Bearcats, who posted one conference victory last year during their inaugural Big 12 season. Will 2024 be any better? Yes, but only on the margins. UC isn’t ready to compete for a top-half finish, much less morph into a true contender.
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13. Colorado: The Buffaloes didn’t have the proper personnel on the lines of scrimmage to compete in the Pac-12 last year. Those issues have been addressed by coach Deion Sanders, which should result in a better product each week. But the schedule is extremely difficult. CU plays all the top teams in the Big 12 and faces an arduous lineup of non-conference opponents. Five wins overall, and three in conference play, feels about right.
14. Arizona State: No team in the Big 12 has more uncertainty at quarterback than the Sun Devils. No team enters the season with more questions at the skill positions. And no team plays a tougher conference schedule. Add it up, and Kenny Dillingham faces challenges that make 2024 seem like it’s the first year of a massive rebuild, not the second. If any coach with just three wins to his name ever deserved a raise, it’s Dillingham.
15. Brigham Young: Year Two in the Big 12 will resemble the Cougars’ inaugural season in the conference, when they won just two games and often were beaten resoundingly. Kalani Sitake’s seat is warming rapidly as a result, and the roster doesn’t possess enough playmakers to cool the temperature. Also, the schedule is rigorous: If the Cougars don’t beat Baylor on Sept. 28, they might not collect their first conference victory until November.
16. Houston: The Cougars shrewdly hired Willie Fritz from Tulane to replace Dana Holgorsen but don’t have enough of anything to escape the bottom tier. They could very well lose ground relative to the competition as Fritz undertakes his renovation project. That said, if the Cougars finish last, they will probably have company.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
Utah Hockey Club owner Ryan Smith chats with Post Malone during a Utah Hockey Club game on December … [+] 2, 2024 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. (Photo by Aaron Baker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
When you’re the Utah Hockey Club, giving away 2,000 tickets to a regular-season game is a cause for celebration, not alarm.
After all, not every pro sports team team has an unused inventory of ‘single goal view seats’ that it can tap as a tool to help entice new fans.
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It started with a simple tweet from Utah Hockey Club owner Ryan Smith ahead of the club’s home game against the Vancouver Canucks last Wednesday.
In a followup, Smith said that he’d planned to give away the eight seats in his owner’s suite. But when he got more than 700 responses, he decided to open the invitation wider.
In the end, he put 2,000 extra people into Delta Center on top of the usual sold-out crowd of 11,131. And the fans got a good show as Utah staged a third-period rally from a 2-0 deficit before Mikhail Sergachev buried the game-winner on a 2-on-1 with 12 seconds left in overtime.
Acquired in a trade with the Tampa Bay Lightning during the 2024 NHL draft weekend, Sergachev has been a massive difference-maker for the Utah team in its first season in its new home. Helping to fill holes after fellow veteran blueliners John Marino and Sean Durzi went down early with long-term injuries, 26-year-old Sergachev is averaging 25:45 a game, third-most in the entire NHL.
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With eight goals and 26 points in 33 games to date, the two-time Stanley Cup winner is also on pace to match his previous career high of 64 points in a season, set in 2022-23.
Another standout has been goaltender Karel Vejmelka. The 28-year-old now sits second in the NHL with 16.5 goals saved above expected according to MoneyPuck, and has amassed a career-best save percentage of .918.
After their vagabond years in Arizona, including their last two seasons as secondary tenants at 4,600-seat Mullett Arena on the campus of Arizona State University, perhaps it should come as no surprise that the re-established Utah team would come out of the gate as road warriors. Unbeaten in regulation in their last eight games, with a record of 6-0-2, they’re up to 11-6-2 on the road this season.
Utah’s home win over Vancouver last Wednesday boosted the squad to 5-5-3 on home ice. The club followed up on Sunday with a 5-4 shootout loss to the Anaheim Ducks, which has the team just outside of the Western Conference wild-card picture with one more game to go before the NHL’s three-day holiday break — hosting the Dallas Stars as part of a 13-game slate on Monday.
On Dec. 2, the Stars earned a 2-1 win at the Delta Center — Utah’s only regulation loss since Nov. 24. The Western Conference standings are tight, but the new club is trending positively toward making the playoffs in its inaugural season. The Coyotes’ only post-season appearance in the franchise’s last 12 years came as part of the expanded 24-team field in the 2020 pandemic bubble, when they eliminated the Nashville Predators in the best-of-three qualifying round before falling to the Colorado Avalanche.
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Of the ice, Smith and his wife and co-owner, Ashley, have already helped make winners out of their 31 fellow NHL owners. Smith Entertainment Group’s $1.2 billion purchase of Arizona’s hockey assets last April fueled a 140 percent increase in the valuation of the franchise — a key metric in the league’s 44 percent increase in average valuations in 2024 per Forbes estimates, which dramatically outpaces the growth of the other North American sports over the last year.
The rosy economic picture for the Utah Hockey Club and the league as a whole bodes well for the next round of collective bargaining. While the current deal is not set to expire until the end of the 2025-26 season, commissioner Gary Bettman indicated at the league’s board of governors’ meetings in Florida earlier this month that he and NHL Players’ Association executive director Marty Walsh plan to start formal discussions in February, with an eye toward potentially completing an agreement before the end of this hockey year.
Lance Holtzclaw has found a new home. The former Washington edge rusher entered the transfer portal after three years on Montlake and has signed with one of the Huskies’ former Pac-12 opponents, the Utah Utes.
Now in the Big 12, coach Kyle Whittingham’s team should be a good fit for the 6-foot-3, 225-pound pass rush specialist, which finished third in the conference in total defense, allowing 329.7 yards per game in its first year in the conference.
The Utes also finished fifth in the conference with 24 sacks, a statistic that Holtzclaw may be able to assist with if he can see the field more often.
In three years with the Huskies, the former three-star recruit who is originally from Dorchester, Massachusetts, played in 26 games and tallied 13 tackles, 2 sacks, and a fumble recovery.
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Holtzclaw’s most notable moment in a Husky uniform came in Washington’s 26-21 win over the USC Trojans in November. He came in on fourth down and pressured quarterback Miller Moss, forcing an errant throw in the game’s final seconds. He also completes an effective defensive line trade between the two schools, after the Huskies added a commitment from former Utah defensive tackle Simote Pepa last week.
The homecoming party is underway for JJ Mandaquit and his island brothers at Utah Prep.
Mandaquit had five points and four assists, while AJ Dybantsa clutched up for 21 points, five rebounds and four assists as Utah Prep edged Brewster Academy (N.H.) 45-43 to capture the ‘Iolani Prep Classic championship on Saturday night.
“I’m just happy we got the win. Before the game, our coach told us that a lot of teams that won this in the past are NBA players, so it means a lot,” said Dybantsa, who wore a blue BYU shirt post game. “Go Cougs.”
He was named the tournament most valuable player after 57 points, 27 rebounds and 17 assists in three games.
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Ebuka Okorie of Brewster Academy was named the most outstanding player. Joining them on the all-tournament team: Tanoa Scanlan, Punahou; Jordan Smith, St. Paul VI (Va.); RJ Smith, Imhotep Charter (Philadelphia); Colben Landrew, Wheeler (Ga.); Donovan Williams, Deondrea Lindsey of Oak Hill (Va.); Juan Guerrero Hernandez Jr and Rayane Solhi of Veritas Academy (Calif.); Killyan Toure and Sebastian Wilkins of Brewster; Anthony Felesi and JJ Mandaquit of Utah Prep.
Jackson Kiss added seven points in a defensive battle that required Utah Prep (13-4) to rally from an early six-point deficit.
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Ohio State-bound Killyan Toure led Brewster (12-2) with 10 points. Darien Moore added seven.
Down 45-43, Brewster got the ball with nine seconds remaining and one timeout available. After Utah Prep gave a foul, Brewster inbounded with 5.6 seconds left at midcourt. Toure drew a double team on what looked like a possible 20-foot runner at the right wing, but he delivered a pass to a wide-open Preston Fowler, who missed the potential game-winner as time expired.
Brewster was cohesive from the start, opening a 17-11 lead on Ebuka Okorie’s and-1 drive early in the second quarter. Utah Prep rallied with a 7-0 run, taking the lead on a pull-up, straightaway 3 by Dybantsa.
The Bobcats responded with a 9-2 run. Toure blew past his defender for a lefty layup, Sebastian Wilkins swished a straightaway 3 and Moore sent a bounce pass to Toure on a backdoor cut for a resounding dunk. After Wilkins scored inside, Brewster led 26-20 with 1:31 left in the first half.
Ater Bol Meen’s corner 3 opened the lead to 29-21 going into the break.
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Utah Prep, settling for isolation jumpers, shot 42% from the field in the first half. In the second quarter, they were 33% (3-for-9). The most telling number: one offensive rebound in the first 16 minutes.
Dybantsa had 11 points, four boards, one assist and one turnover by intermission. He was not deterred. He splashed a corner 3 to start the second half, and after Kiss realized the shot clock was running out and nailed a 3, Utah Prep was within 33-27.
Jackson Rasmussen’s old-school low-post bucket cut the lead to four, 33-29.
After a Dybantsa free throw and a Mandaquit dish to Kiss for a tough layup, Utah Prep was within 33-32. Brewster tried to withstand the barrage. Okorie drove for a tough basket, but Dybantsa was relentless, drawing contact and sinking two free throws.
His next drive for a bucket gave Utah Prep the lead, 36-35, with 27 seconds remaining in the third quarter. Rasmussen surprised his defender, taking a pass from Dybantsa and exploding to the rim for a layup.
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With Brewster ice cold from the perimeter, Dybantsa scored on a tough 10-foot runner in the lane, drawing a foul. His free throw missed, but Utah Prep’s lead was 40-35 with 5:56 left.
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