The Big 12 has embraced its place as the Power Four conference with the greatest depth, where the difference between No. 1 and No. 16 is small and the potential for highly competitive games each week is high.
The Hotline generally agrees with this narrative. There are no blue-blood programs stocked with blue-chip talents in the Big 12. There are no equivalents of Ohio State or Georgia. No clear and obvious national title contenders.
That said, nuance is required when assessing the 16-team conference race.
There is a marked difference in roster quality between the top and bottom tiers. A handful of teams could win the conference, and a handful could finish last. But the gap is substantial. Not every game will be close. Not every week will be lined with upsets.
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The Hotline was able to identify teams as contenders, pretenders and also-rans without much trouble. The complexity came when attempting to distinguish teams within each grouping.
We don’t pick ties. We hate picking ties. But there will be ties.
Oh yes, there will be ties.
1. Utah: The Hotline has been asked repeatedly how the Utes will adjust to life in the Big 12. We think the question should be flipped: How will the Big 12 adjust to the Utes? They are the team to beat thanks to the combination of coaching acumen, first-rate quarterback (Cam Rising) and stout offensive and defensive lines. Assuming injuries revert to the norm after a hellacious barrage last season, Utah is the best bet to represent the conference in the CFP.
2. Oklahoma State: We considered picking the Cowboys to win the Big 12 and would not be surprised if they emerge as the last team standing. Coach Mike Gundy has a veteran quarterback (Alan Bowman) and returning starters across all position groups. But every analysis by the Hotline supercomputer spit out the same conclusion: Utah’s offensive line will dominate the head-to-head meetings, in Stillwater and the conference championship.
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3. Kansas State: The Wildcats warrant immense respect after winning 19 games over the past two seasons — don’t be surprised if they end up playing for the conference title. Chris Klieman must retool his offense, with sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson in the lead role, but KSU’s defense should be one of the Big 12’s best. (The secondary is stellar.) And not for nothing: The road schedule is entirely manageable.
4. Arizona: Once first-year coach Brent Brennan secured the core of his roster — only a few players followed Jedd Fisch to Seattle — the Wildcats vaulted onto the top tier of contenders. There’s plenty to like, starting with the elite aerial tandem of quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan. But could unprecedented expectations (both internal and external) change the dynamics and create unexpected potholes?
5. Kansas: The Jayhawks were picked fourth in the Big 12 preseason media poll, which probably pleased coach Lance Leipold. (Let other teams deal with the pressure and bake in the spotlight.) Assuming quarterback Jalon Daniels’ back holds up, KU has more to like than dislike across the two-deep. But we wonder about the front seven, which faces several of the best offensive lines in the conference.
6. Iowa State: After a regression in 2022, coach Matt Campbell re-established his program last season as the Cyclones went 6-3 in league play. Will the trajectory continue, or stall? They are stout throughout many of the key position groups, from quarterback to the lines of scrimmage to the defensive backfield. But the lineup of November opponents is brutal. We expect a fast start and slow finish in Ames.
7. Texas Tech: The Hotline has a slightly more optimistic view of the Red Raiders than other prognosticators, a view based partly on a schedule that does not include Utah, Kansas or Kansas State. That might not seem like much, but one additional victory could be the difference between seventh and 10th place, or eighth and 12th. Also, TTU has one of the top pass-catching groups in the conference.
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8. West Virginia: The Mountaineers won five of their final six games last season, return starting quarterback Garrett Greene and possess a stellar offensive line. So why the modest outlook? Their non-conference schedule is challenging and could exact a toll during the early part of league play, when they face Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona in succession. Relief comes only in November.
9. UCF: The Knight’s first season in the Big 12 started poorly but ended with three wins in the final month. There’s good reason to believe the momentum will carry over for fourth-year coach Gus Malzahn. If quarterback KJ Jefferson plays to his potential after transferring from Arkansas, UCF could sneak into contention.
10. TCU: Sonny Dykes has spent six years as a head coach at the Power Five level, four at Cal and two at TCU. He has one winning season: The improbable, magical run to the national championship game in 2022. So forgive our unwillingness to take a leap of faith with the Horned Frogs, who drew one of the Big 12’s toughest conference schedules. This is a critical year for the Dykes regime.
11. Baylor: Coach Dave Aranda occupies arguably the hottest seat in the conference following two disappointing seasons. It’s difficult to envision a material change in the Bears’ trajectory despite all the returning starters at his disposal. Once momentum is lost and the dark clouds descend, the negativity tends to stick.
12. Cincinnati: The halcyon days of Luke Fickell, Desmond Ridder and Top 25 rankings seem like a decade ago for the Bearcats, who posted one conference victory last year during their inaugural Big 12 season. Will 2024 be any better? Yes, but only on the margins. UC isn’t ready to compete for a top-half finish, much less morph into a true contender.
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13. Colorado: The Buffaloes didn’t have the proper personnel on the lines of scrimmage to compete in the Pac-12 last year. Those issues have been addressed by coach Deion Sanders, which should result in a better product each week. But the schedule is extremely difficult. CU plays all the top teams in the Big 12 and faces an arduous lineup of non-conference opponents. Five wins overall, and three in conference play, feels about right.
14. Arizona State: No team in the Big 12 has more uncertainty at quarterback than the Sun Devils. No team enters the season with more questions at the skill positions. And no team plays a tougher conference schedule. Add it up, and Kenny Dillingham faces challenges that make 2024 seem like it’s the first year of a massive rebuild, not the second. If any coach with just three wins to his name ever deserved a raise, it’s Dillingham.
15. Brigham Young: Year Two in the Big 12 will resemble the Cougars’ inaugural season in the conference, when they won just two games and often were beaten resoundingly. Kalani Sitake’s seat is warming rapidly as a result, and the roster doesn’t possess enough playmakers to cool the temperature. Also, the schedule is rigorous: If the Cougars don’t beat Baylor on Sept. 28, they might not collect their first conference victory until November.
16. Houston: The Cougars shrewdly hired Willie Fritz from Tulane to replace Dana Holgorsen but don’t have enough of anything to escape the bottom tier. They could very well lose ground relative to the competition as Fritz undertakes his renovation project. That said, if the Cougars finish last, they will probably have company.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
For the third time this month and fifth time this season, the Utah Hockey Club failed to score a single goal in a game. This time they fell 1-0 to the Boston Bruins on Thursday night.
The band 4 Non Blondes said it best: What’s going on?
“In the first period we had good momentum, we created good offense and then we started to get in the box way too much,” said head coach André Tourigny after the game. “That cost us momentum.”
The third period was full of chances for Utah HC, but they just couldn’t capitalize.
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At one point, a give-and-go created a perfect opportunity for Maveric Lamoureux at the top of the crease, but his shot went off the underside of the crossbar and out.
On another occasion, a power play bid from Nick Schmaltz hit a body in front of the net and bounced just wide. UHC just couldn’t buy a goal.
The Bruins are glad to get a win in their first game under interim head coach Joe Sacco. Additionally, Elias Lindholm scored the game’s lone goal, breaking a 17-game personal goal drought.
It was a big step in the right direction for the Bruins.
How this works
This is a three-part article geared toward three different audiences.
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First, we’ll have “Utah hockey for dummies” for all you new hockey fans. Welcome, by the way — we’re glad you’ve taken an interest in the greatest sport in the world.
Next, we’ll have a section titled “Utah hockey for casual fans,” aimed at those who have a basic understanding of the sport.
Finally, we’ll have “Utah hockey for nerds.” That will be for those of you who, like me, think about nothing but hockey all day, every day.
Feedback is welcome, so let me know what you think in the comments of this article or the comments section on “X.”
Utah hockey for dummies
Before we get into the nitty gritty details of the game, let’s take a moment to appreciate Robert Bortuzzo and Mark Kastelic. You’d think a game with only one goal would be relatively boring, but these two ensured that was not the case.
Bortuzzo and Kastelic fought each other twice. They had been engaged in some confrontation in the previous game between the two teams on Oct. 19 and they got their opportunity to finish their business a month later.
Mark Kastelic vs Robert Bortuzzo
First NHL game to feature 2 fights by the same combatants since Givani Smith (Red Wings) & Zack MacEwen (Flyers on March 22, 2022 pic.twitter.com/iaHKDNmC1R
On the first bout, Bortuzzo left the bench for the purpose of fighting. As Conor Geekie learned in the preseason, that’s not allowed. Geekie got a one-game suspension and I’d expect the same for Bortuzzo.
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Utah hockey for casual fans
Karel Vejmelka was Utah HC’s best player Thursday, and it wasn’t even close. That’s a major positive point for Utah as Connor Ingram did not accompany the team on this road trip due to an upper-body injury.
Vejmelka will guard the net for the immediate future with Jaxson Stauber backing him up. Tourigny is not worried about giving Vejmelka the net.
“He’s played 50 games twice in his career, so it’s not like he’s a rookie goalie,” Tourigny said before the game. “He did it in the past and he’s capable of doing it again.”
It’s clear that Vejmelka thrives on high shot volume. He stopped all 15 shots he faced in the first period on Thursday, and then stopped 15 of the 16 that came in the ensuing periods.
Thursday’s performance comes after he made headlines against the Carolina Hurricanes last week when he stopped 49 of 50 shots.
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Ingram’s injury is considered day-to-day. He should be back soon, but the net may belong to Vejmelka anyway. Vejmelka has been the much better goalie over the last handful of games.
Utah hockey for nerds
On their last 25 power plays, Utah HC has scored just one goal, and with the amount of penalties they’ve been taking, they’re not putting themselves in a position to succeed.
Let’s break this down, piece by piece, starting with the power play.
Utah HC seems to have no problem setting up in the zone on the power play. They move the puck well and they even get lots of high-quality shots. Why isn’t the puck going in?
Tourigny believes it’s a question of urgency.
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“The guys have to realize (that) if we want to score goals, we have to get in the dirty areas,” he said. “We need to get there with passion. Not just get there — get there with burning desire to score goals.”
As far as the penalties go, they need to be more disciplined. Sure, there are necessary penalties and yes, accidents happen, but taking eight minor penalties in one game is a recipe for disaster.
“I don’t know,” Schmaltz said after the game when asked about accountability for how many penalties the guys were taking. “I feel like we’re beating a dead horse a little bit on that topic.”
The Bruins only had one power play goal, but keep in mind that spending almost an entire period shorthanded significantly limits the amount of scoring chances you get.
Schmaltz also pointed out that when the other team gets so many looks on the power play, their top players are extremely involved in the game while your top players sit on the bench.
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What’s next?
Utah HC gets a day to regroup before visiting Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday.
As good as Crosby is, he hasn’t been enough to drag the Penguins into the fight. They’ve struggled in a number of areas on the ice, prompting all sorts of trade rumors — even some involving Crosby, who has been a Penguin since 2005.
Utah HC’s job going into Pittsburgh is to get back on track. They need to find ways to score (especially on the power play) and they need to be disciplined away from the puck. If they do this and continue to get solid goaltending, they could receive a much-needed confidence boost.
The game starts at 5 p.m. MDT and will be streamed on Utah HC+ and Utah 16.
While it hasn’t been the most pleasant start for the Utah Jazz during their 2024-25 campaign, amounting to a 3-11 record through their first 14 games, there are still a few glaring signs of optimism to takeaway that shine through in the mix through the beginning of this season, largely thanks to the reps and development opportunities given to the young talent on the roster so far.
Of those young players having a solid role in the rotation to start this season, one of the most appealing in the small sample size has been first-round rookie Isaiah Collier, who’s made an eye-catching first impression since arriving in Salt Lake City.
During ESPN’s most recent batch of power rankings, the Jazz didn’t see much increase from last week, jumping from only 29th to 28th. Still, writer Tim MacMahon gave fans some reason to be excited about this roster moving forward– that being Utah’s rookie point guard.
“Rookie guard Isaiah Collier is only 1-of-12 from 3-point range, but he’s providing evidence that he can make a positive impact,” MacMahon said. “Collier, whose debut was delayed two weeks due to a hamstring injury, has a plus-10 rating in 108 minutes over his first six games. His tenacious, tough defense has made a favorable impression. Entering Tuesday, the Jazz were allowing only 104.5 points per 100 possessions with the 6-foot-3, 210-pound Collier on the court, the lowest defensive rating among Utah players.”
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In ESPN’s rankings, the Jazz placed ahead of two teams in the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards, and are right on the heels of the New Orleans Pelicans at 27th, who, like Utah, have also struggled in the Western Conference this year with a 4-11 regular season record.
Collier was limited to start this season as he suffered a hamstring injury during training camp, but since his return, he’s begun to show some impressive traits on both sides of the ball during his first seven games on the floor. In 18 minutes a night, the USC product is averaging 4.0 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.3 steals.
As mentioned by MacMahon, the offensive side of the ball still has some distance to make up in order to be an effective and consistent two-way threat. At just a. 8.3% clip from long range, he’s not much of a threat beyond the arc just yet, but with a long season ahead, there’s a ton of room to recover those shooting splits.
In the meantime, Collier has emerged as a solid contributor as an offensive facilitator and perimeter defender in the backcourt– two areas which this roster can definitely benefit from.
Senior Day at the University of Utah is always a poignant occasion, but this year’s ceremony carries even greater emotional weight as the program honors not only its current senior class but also the memories of Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe. Both would have been seniors this year, and their absence looms large as Utah prepares to host Iowa State in the final home game of the season at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Over 25 seniors, including key contributors like Junior Tafuna, Micah Bernard, and Money Parks, will be recognized for their contributions on and off the field. For many, their time at Utah has been marked by both triumph and adversity. As head coach Kyle Whittingham noted, these seniors were instrumental in the Utes’ back-to-back Pac-12 championships in 2021 and 2022, despite the challenges the team has faced in recent years. He praised their resilience, character, and dedication, both on the field and in the classroom, as all are either graduates or on track to graduate.
Utah reveals tribute uniforms with ‘Malama Lahaina’ helmets for Iowa State
A special part of the ceremony will honor Jordan and Lowe, two players whose lives were tragically cut short in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Their families will be present as the team remembers their immense impact on the program. Utah has consistently kept their memories alive through traditions like retiring their No. 22 jersey, creating a memorial scholarship, and the “Moment of Loudness,” a powerful tribute held before the fourth quarter at every home game.
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For all Utes seniors, the bittersweet nature of Saturday will be amplified by the remembrance of their late teammates. The legacy of Jordan and Lowe will continue to inspire the program, reminding everyone of the deeper connections that transcend the game.
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