Seattle, WA
Weekend Reads: Examining the Seattle Chamber of Commerce Poll | South Seattle Emerald
by Kevin Schofield
This weekend’s learn is the second version of the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce’s twice-yearly “The Index” ballot on voter sentiment in Seattle. It made headlines earlier this week, with the Chamber declaring that respondents had change into extra pessimistic about our metropolis for the reason that earlier ballot in August.
Earlier than we dive into the outcomes, nonetheless, it’s price contemplating how a lot we belief the Chamber to precisely painting the viewers’s sentiments. Polls like this are statistical samples: A small share of individuals are interviewed, and their solutions (after some processing) are offered as representing the broader inhabitants. Ballot outcomes are by no means precisely right; relatively, they’re offered as being inside a “margin of error” of the reality. Typically talking, the upper the variety of people who find themselves polled, the extra correct the outcomes, as a result of people with excessive “outlier” views have much less influence on the entire consequence. The converse can be essential: The less individuals polled, the upper the margin of error, as a result of “outliers” have extra influence.
The Chamber polled 700 registered voters for its survey and calculated that it has a margin of error of three.9%, which means that if 50% of survey respondents stated “sure” to a given query, then someplace between 46.1% and 53.9% of Seattle registered voters would additionally say “sure.” As we’re studying by way of the survey outcomes, if we see that the distinction between two solutions is lower than 3.9%, then there isn’t any measurable distinction between them. Additionally, if the change from the earlier survey is lower than 3.9% (in both route), it’s primarily unchanged.
However there are some essential caveats to this. The primary, and most essential, is that the three.9% margin of error applies solely to questions requested of all 700 respondents; the margin for any subgroup will likely be larger — and doubtlessly a lot larger if the subgroup may be very small. We all know from different sources that about 61% of Seattle registered voters are Democrats: nearly 450,000 individuals. Assuming they’re proportionally represented within the Chamber’s ballot, that may imply the Chamber surveyed about 427 registered Democrats. However Native People and Alaska Natives make up solely 0.5% of Seattle’s voters — about 3,700 individuals — and a proportional illustration of them would solely be about 3 or 4 individuals out of the 700 polled. One excessive outlier among the many Democrats polled will get pretty diluted, however one outlier among the many Native People may have an outsize influence on the outcomes for that subgroup. The Chamber is sensible sufficient to not escape outcomes for an ethnic group that small, but it surely does present breakouts for Socialists (7% of voters) and Republicans (12%), regardless that they’d respectively solely account for 49 and 84 of the survey responses.
Pollsters take care of this concern by deliberately over-polling small subgroups, after which re-weighting the outcomes to match the true demographics of the inhabitants. The Chamber doesn’t say whether or not it did certainly over-sample the smaller teams, but it surely does clarify that it weighted the responses to match town’s demographic profile, and to match the proportion of registered voters in every Metropolis Council district. The latter was essential, as a result of it deliberately polled 100 people from every of the seven Council districts, regardless that registered voters (or different demographics) usually are not equally distributed throughout them. Practically all polls endure from “response bias,” which means that folks with sturdy emotions and opinions usually tend to take the time to reply, so a ballot this small with important weighting may very well be closely influenced by response bias. Furthermore, this ballot was restricted to registered voters, which is extra consultant of the inhabitants than the traditional “probably voters” utilized in election polls, however that also leaves out a big fraction of Seattle adults who usually are not registered to vote — together with those that usually are not U.S. residents.
The takeaway: It is a comparatively small ballot that has been closely rebalanced to attempt to match voter demographics. The mixture makes it extra susceptible to bias within the outcomes. That doesn’t imply it’s biased, however we must always not give a lot credence to small variations, and even much less to measurements for small demographic teams. Then again, the place we see massive variations and constant patterns throughout subgroups, that can provide us extra confidence within the outcomes. However we additionally must remember that this ballot is a political instrument: It solely surveyed voters, not the overall inhabitants, implying that its intent is to ship a message to elected officers on what the voters need.
The Chamber’s report on its ballot incorporates 62 pages of detailed charts; I’m going to depart most of it so that you can learn by way of by yourself (with the above caveats), but it surely’s price mentioning a couple of of the highest outcomes.
Total, 76% of these surveyed felt that Seattle is on the flawed observe, a rise of 8 factors for the reason that final ballot; that’s double the margin of error, so it’s a measurable shift. Equally, 81% felt that the general high quality of life in Seattle is worse than 4 years in the past, a rise of 5 factors (simply barely larger than the margin of error). Respondents had been break up 50-50 as as to whether they’re optimistic about the way forward for the area. Not surprisingly, and in a sample we see in a lot of the ballot’s outcomes, the responses are extremely politicized. Democrats — the celebration in energy in Seattle — are way more constructive, and independents and Republicans are way more unfavorable. That could be a frequent consequence in political polls: The celebration in energy thinks issues are higher, and the events out of energy suppose they’re worse — and their views will flip in a single day when the celebration in energy modifications.
Apparently, a supermajority of each demographic believed that the standard of life is worse in Seattle now in contrast with 4 years in the past. Demographic variations are constantly inside the margin of error for practically each class apart from political affiliation, and for the age 50–64 demographic. Of notice: There are a number of questions for which the age 50–64 group is an excessive outlier, hinting (however not proving) that the outcomes for that subgroup (20% of the inhabitants) is probably not correct.
Two-thirds of survey respondents stated they’ve actively thought-about leaving Seattle. Once more, it’s decrease for Democrats and better for independents and Republicans, but it surely was nonetheless a majority of Democrats and even Socialists. That is in line with a nationwide pattern that has been known as “The Nice Sorting,” by which individuals throughout the nation are transferring to communities that share their political views.
On homelessness, the highest concern for survey respondents, there was a 73-point margin between those that needed the Metropolis to offer outreach, supply shelter, and take away encampments (86%), and those that wish to cease all encampment “sweeps” solely (13%). It is a bit deceptive, as a result of these had been the one two decisions, permitting no room for these with extra nuanced views, but it’s a devastating blow to the “Cease the Sweeps” motion. Amongst Democrats, 89% opted for encampment removals; even 55% of Socialists held that view. On the similar time, there was sturdy assist for increasing regional and state partnerships on homelessness response, and for investing extra in behavioral well being applications.
On public security: A majority of each demographic — and a supermajority of most — don’t really feel secure visiting Downtown Seattle at evening. Over three-quarters of survey respondents additionally most well-liked reforming the Seattle Police Division (SPD) whereas hiring again officers over a “defund and decriminalize” method; although, as with the homeless encampment query, there was no room for nuanced solutions to this difficult query. In an analogous vein, no group — not even Socialists or Democrats — trusts the Seattle Metropolis Council to reform SPD.
There are further sections within the survey report on housing, taxes, the Metropolis funds, the trail to prosperity, and little one care.
The apparent takeaway from the survey report, and maybe the one which the Chamber was on the lookout for given its political bent, was an absence of assist for essentially the most progressive insurance policies that the Metropolis Council and a coalition of activist organizations have been pushing for. It’s laborious to overlook that the outcomes of lots of the questions are extremely politicized, with independents and Republicans on a really completely different web page than Democrats and Socialists; that’s in all probability to be anticipated, given our present nationwide politics. Then again, the locations the place there may be an awesome consequence and little distinction throughout political events, together with police reform and eradicating homeless encampments, ship a transparent message to newly seated Mayor Harrell and to the Metropolis Council.
The Index (Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce)
Kevin Schofield is a contract author and the founding father of Seattle Metropolis Council Perception, an internet site offering unbiased information and evaluation of the Seattle Metropolis Council and Metropolis Corridor. He additionally co-hosts the “Seattle Information, Views and Brews” podcast with Brian Callanan, and seems sometimes on Converge Media and KUOW’s Week in Overview.
? Featured picture by JamesWM.foto/Shutterstock.com.
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After a rough East Coast road trip, the first-place Seattle Mariners were hoping a return to the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help them get back on track.
It didn’t work out that way.
MLB insider reports on Mariners’ trade pursuits
The Mariners dropped two of three to the Minnesota Twins this weekend and lost a series at home for the first time since mid-April. It ended a streak of nine consecutive series wins at T-Mobile Park, which was the second-longest such streak in franchise history.
Seattle benefited from some chaos ball in the series opener, rallying for a 3-2 walkoff win in 10 innings on Friday night. But the Mariners dropped the final two games, losing 5-1 on Saturday and 5-3 on Sunday.
Seattle (47-39) has now lost four consecutive series overall. The Mariners are 3-8 since rattling off a 17-5 stretch earlier this month.
Standings update
Less than two weeks ago, the Mariners held a commanding 10-game lead atop the AL West. It’s a much different story now.
Seattle’s lead has dwindled to just 3.5 games over the second-place Houston Astros (42-41), who have surged back into contention with nine wins in their past 10 games. One piece of good news: The Mariners are still 8.5 games ahead of the third-place Texas Rangers (37-46), who have lost six straight.
Hitting struggles continue
The Mariners’ hitting woes this season have been well-documented. They continued with another rough series at the plate this weekend, as Seattle mustered a total of just seven runs in the three-game set.
In some ways, the Mariners were fortunate even to scratch across that many runs. Their game-tying run on Friday night came on an error. Their game-winning run later that night came in extra innings, with the benefit of an automatic runner starting the frame at second base. And on Sunday, one of their runs came one batter after Minnesota center fielder Byron Buxton lost a fly ball in the sun.
Seattle’s offense continues to sit at or near the bottom of the majors in nearly every key statistical category. Through Saturday, the Mariners ranked 27th in runs per game (3.87), dead-last in batting average (.218), 25th in on-base percentage (.298), 26th in slugging percentage (.366) and 26th in OPS (.664). They also have the highest strikeout rate in the majors at 27.9%, which is 1.6% higher than the next-closest team.
Bullpen gives up game-changing homers
With the Mariners playing in so many low-scoring games, their bullpen consistently finds itself in high-stress situations. That pressure has only been amplified by a slew of injuries that have tested the group’s depth. So, it’s not surprising that the bullpen has been showing more and more cracks of late.
Seattle relievers combined for four scoreless innings in Friday’s extra-inning victory, but they surrendered game-changing homers the next two days. In the sixth inning on Saturday, right-hander Trent Thornton left a center-cut fastball over the plate that Buxton belted for a three-run homer, which stretched the Twins’ lead to 5-1. And in the eighth inning on Sunday, right-hander Ryne Stanek threw a splitter that caught too much of the plate. Trevor Larnach made him pay, hitting a tiebreaking two-run shot that proved to be the difference in the series.
Thornton has been great this season, posting a 0.97 WHIP that ranks among in the top 20 among AL relievers. Stanek entered Sunday with a 10-game scoreless streak. But overall, ever since a dominant first month of the season, Seattle’s bullpen has been trending downward. Since May 1, the Mariners’ ‘pen ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA (4.59) and 15th in WHIP (1.25).
Gilbert wraps up dominant June
After tossing eight scoreless innings in each of his previous two starts, Logan Gilbert took a shutout into the sixth inning Friday night to extend his scoreless streak to 21 frames. The streak ended on a two-run homer by Carlos Correa, but that was the lone blemish in another strong outing for Gilbert. The 27-year-old right-hander limited the Twins to just two runs over six innings, giving him his MLB-best 14th quality start.
It capped a dominant June for Gilbert, who posted a 1.51 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP in five starts this month, along with 31 strikeouts and only one walk. Gilbert leads the majors with a 0.88 WHIP this season and ranks fifth in opponents’ batting average (.195) and ninth in ERA (2.72). He has allowed one earned run or fewer in nine of his 17 starts and has surrendered more than four runs only once all season.
Up next
After an off day Monday, the Mariners continue their nine-game homestand with a three-game set against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore (53-30) recently had a season-long five-game losing streak, but has since responded with four straight wins.
The Orioles’ heavy-hitting lineup averages an MLB-leading 5.25 runs per game and leads the majors in slugging percentage (.464), OPS (.781) and home runs (139). Baltimore has blasted a whopping 60 homers in June, which is 18 more than any other team. Power-hitting shortstop Gunnar Henderson is tied for second in the majors with 26 homers and outfielder Anthony Santander ranks fifth with 22 long balls, including an MLB-best 12 this month. Baltimore also has one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, ranking third in ERA (3.36) and fourth in WHIP (1.16).
The Mariners lost two of three to the Orioles at Camden Yards in mid-May. Henderson homered in all three games.
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• Rowland-Smith: What stands out about Mariners pitchers’ recent hiccups
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• Seattle Mariners Injury Update: Latest on Bryan Woo, Gabe Speier and more
• Seattle Mariners reliever Gregory Santos to begin rehab assignment
• Big Game Hunting: Two splashy potential Seattle Mariners trade targets
With a struggling lineup and a bullpen that’s been hampered by injuries, the first-place Seattle Mariners certainly have some clear needs to address ahead of the July 30 MLB trade deadline.
Big Game Hunting: Two splashy potential Mariners trade targets
According to one MLB insider, that process is already underway.
“The Mariners already have begun talking with teams about possible trades, with the deadline exactly one month away,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi posted Sunday morning on social media. “For now, Seattle’s focus is an everyday bat and bullpen help.”
The Mariners already have begun talking with teams about possible trades, with the deadline exactly one month away. For now, Seattle’s focus is an everyday bat and bullpen help. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) June 30, 2024
The Mariners currently sit atop the American League West at 47-38, holding a 4.5-game lead over the second-place Houston Astros and a nine-game lead over the Texas Rangers. Seattle has built that lead with its elite starting rotation, which leads the majors with 50 quality starts and ranks fourth with a starting pitching ERA of 3.41.
However, the Mariners’ exceptional starting pitching has been contrasted by an offense that sits at or near the bottom of the majors in nearly every major statistical category. Seattle ranks 27th in runs per game (3.87), dead-last in batting average (.218), 25th in on-base percentage (.298), 26th in slugging percentage (.366) and 26th in OPS (.664). The Mariners also have the highest strikeout rate at 27.9%, which is 1.6% higher than the the next-closest team.
Bats aren’t Seattle’s only need, though. The Mariners’ injury-depleted bullpen could also use some help. Over the first month of the season, Seattle’s bullpen led the majors in WHIP (1.04) and ranked third in ERA (2.56). But since May 1, the Mariners’ bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA (4.59) and 15th in WHIP (1.25).
The Mariners have been without two of their top three relievers this season, with Matt Brash out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery and Gregory Santos missing the first half of the season with a lat strain. Gabe Speier also is on the 15-day injured list with a rotator cuff strain, Tayler Saucedo missed three weeks with a hyperextended knee and closer Andrés Muñoz recently missed a few days earlier this month after aggravating a lower-back issue.
More on the Seattle Mariners
• Rowland-Smith: What stands out about Mariners pitchers’ recent hiccups
• Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez putting in extra work to solve struggles
• Mariners Injury Update: Latest on Bryan Woo, Gabe Speier and more
• Mariners reliever Gregory Santos to begin rehab assignment
• Rost: The two things about first-place Seattle Mariners’ season that are baffling
SEATTLE (AP) — Byron Buxton extended Minnesota’s home run streak to 18 straight games with a three-run shot in the sixth inning, Pablo López allowed one run over six innings, and the Twins beat the Seattle Mariners 5-1 on Saturday night.
Minnesota Twins 5, Seattle Mariners 1: Box Score
Minnesota improved to 5-3 on its current nine-game road trip and got the 5,000th win in franchise history since the Twins moved from Washington prior to the 1961 season.
Buxton homered for the second time in three games, this time breaking the game open with a shot off Seattle reliever Trent Thornton with two outs in the sixth inning. Thornton was on the verge of escaping trouble after the first two batters of the inning reached, but he left a 2-2 fastball in the middle of the plate and Buxton didn’t miss for his eighth homer of the season.
“He’s finding ways to just have good at-bats, put himself in good counts. But the swing, I’ve said a couple of times before, looks very synched up. It looks very tight and it’s very impactful. He’s finding the barrel and the ball just really takes off when he’s putting good swings on the ball,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said.
Minnesota’s 18-game streak of long balls is tied for the franchise record set last season between April 18 and May 6, 2023. It’s the second-longest streak in the majors this season behind Baltimore’s 22-game stretch earlier this month, and the Twins have hit 29 homers during the span.
Buxton also had a two-out RBI double in the fourth inning off Seattle starter Bryce Miller that barely eluded the diving attempt of Luke Raley in left field. The four RBIs were a season high for Buxton and the most since July 21, 2023, against the White Sox.
“Once you figure out what you don’t have to search for the whole time going into the cage, not spending 40 minutes on that one little piece you’re trying to figure out it kind of simplifies the game a little bit more,” Buxton said. “When I say, ‘see ball, hit ball,’ it’s more just about simplifying it to just go out there and have a quality at-bat.”
Coming off a 14-strikeout performance in his last start, López (8-6) scattered four hits and struck out nine. He’s allowed six hits and one earned run in his last 14 innings, and retired 12 of the final 13 batters he faced.
Seattle’s only run off López came via Mitch Haniger’s solo homer in the third inning. It was Haniger’s seventh homer of the season but his first since May 14.
Miller (6-7) was lifted after five innings and only allowing two runs. But he had to work to get through those five innings throwing 87 pitches and with the heart of the Twins order coming up in the sixth.
Miller allowed five hits and struck out six.
“He did have to throw a lot of offspeed pitches tonight, probably the most he’s thrown all year, but he was able to work through it,” Seattle manager Scott Servais said. “It wasn’t easy. … He had to grind through it.”
UP NEXT
Twins: RHP Joe Ryan (5-5, 3.31) has pitched at least six innings in his last four starts. He allowed four runs over six innings in his last outing against Arizona.
Mariners: RHP Luis Castillo (6-9, 3.79) will throw on normal rest rather than giving him two extra days off and having him start Tuesday’s series opener against Baltimore. Castillo has lost three of his last four starts.
More on the Seattle Mariners
• Big Game Hunting: Two splashy potential Mariners trade targets
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• Rowland-Smith: What stands out about Mariners pitchers’ recent hiccups
• Mariners Injury Update: Latest on Bryan Woo, Gabe Speier and more
• Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez putting in extra work to solve struggles
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