2023 stats (rank)

Points per game: 21.4 (17th)
Total yards per game: 322.9 (21st)
Plays per game: 58.5 (32nd)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 36.1 (16th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.09 (10th)
Rush attempts per game: 22.5 (30th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.09 (14th)

Coaching Staff

The Seahawks have moved on from the Pete Carroll era, hiring former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as head coach. Macdonald led the Ravens defense to No. 1 finishes in points allowed, sacks, takeaways, point differential, and turnover margin. He is now the youngest head coach in the league, taking over a Seattle team that went 9-8 last season.

Ryan Grubb also joins the Seahawks at offensive coordinator. He spent two seasons with the Washington Huskies in the same role, helping the offense to the National Championship game in 2023. Ending the season a semifinalist for the Broyles Award (awarded to college football’s top assistant coach), Grubb has been hired to bring his successful offense to the NFL. Geno Smith and company ran the least plays per game in the league last season, averaging 322.9 total yards per game, good for 21^st in the league. While Macdonald brings defensive knowledge and a new culture, Grubb has been brought on bring the middle-of-the-pack offense to greater heights.

Passing Game

QB: Geno Smith, Sam Howell
WR: D.K. Metcalf, Jake Bobo
WR: Tyler Lockett, Laviska Shenault, Dareke Young
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, D’Wayne Eskridge
TE: Noah Fant, Pharoah Brown, A.J. Barner

The Seahawks passed for 230 yards per game, 14^th in the league. Geno Smith started 15 games at quarterback, though his 64.7 completion percentage, 155 rushing yards, and 7.3 yards per attempt were decreases from 2022. He regressed a bit, but was serviceable enough to contribute to the Seahawks’ top-10 dropback EPA per play. Still, the Seahawks added a solid backup in Sam Howell. For the Commanders last season, Howell threw for 3,945 yards and 21 touchdowns. Much was garbage time/down-big production, but he had a better fantasy finish than Smith. However, Smith’s tenure and leadership in the offense will keep him as starter at least in the short-term. He is a low-end QB2 this season while Howell would be a QB3 if he starts.

A trio of wideouts lead the Seahawks’ pass-catching group. D.K. Metcalf is the alpha receiver, with a mashup of size and speed to torch opposing defensive backs. Last season, Metcalf averaged a career-high 16.9 yards per reception, though his totals in targets (119) and receptions (66) were both the lowest since his rookie year. He contended with Tyler Lockett last season to be the top receiver, though he gains an edge due to being the younger receiver with more prototypical alpha size. Lockett beat Metcalf in both targets (122) and receptions (79) last season, though he had less yards and has been the No. 2 receiver in previous seasons. Metcalf became the deeper target while Lockett took shallower looks, a flip from the past couple seasons. Nevertheless, it can be expected that Smith and Ryan Grubb will continue to utilize both.

The third member of the trio is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, entering his second season. As a first-round pick last season, Smith-Njigba operated out of the slot, catching 63 passes for 628 yards. It took a while for him to see quality looks, seeing a lot of shallow targets at or near the line of scrimmage. Projecting growth for Smith-Njigba, he will still see shallow targets but can also move out into the intermediate area in Grubb’s more condensed offense, especially if Grubb uses more three-wide receiver sets than Seattle did last year. At Washington, Grubb’s passing offense primarily ran through Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. Translating that to Seattle, Metcalf is the primary outside receiver, with Lockett the No. 2 and Smith-Njigba the No. 3 from the slot. For fantasy, bet on Metcalf being a WR2, Lockett a WR3, and Smith-Njigba a fringe WR4 value. Jake Bobo and Laviska Shenault headline the rest of the wideout group who will step into roles should any of the top-three go down.

Behind the wideouts, Noah Fant is an intriguing name at tight end. He has spent two seasons with the Seahawks, totaling 82 receptions for 900 yards and four touchdowns between both. Fant saw more production in his previous three seasons with the Broncos but is now poised for more opportunity this season. Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson are both gone, leaving smaller target competition with Pharaoh Brown and rookie A.J. Barner. Though Fant is still just the No. 4 pass-catching option, he will have the opportunity to be a fringe TE2. It is notable that Grubb’s college tight end, Jack Westover, signed with the Seahawks as an undrafted free agent as well, though he is likely on the roster bubble through preseason.

Running Game

RB: Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh, George Holani
OL (L-R): Charles Cross, Laken Tomlinson, Olu Oluwatimi, Christan Haynes, Abraham Lucas

The running game was a curiously small part of the Seahawks’ offense last season. They ran 22.5 run plays, third-least in the league, though that conveyed to a 14^th-best rush EPA per play. Ryan Grubb has emphasized a desire to be a physical team while Mike Macdonald wants to run the football as a part of the offensive core identity. More rushing could be in line for the Seahawks’ backfield.

With little change in the backfield, Kenneth Walker is still penciled in as the lead back. He led the way with 219 carries for 905 yards and eight touchdowns, the only running back with more than one last season. Behind Walker, Zach Charbonnet totaled 108 carries for 462 yards as a rookie. While Walker was clearly ahead as a runner, Charbonnet saw a similar share of backfield targets, giving Charbonnet a pass-catching inflation to his fantasy value. Kenny McIntosh is currently the No. 3 RB, but he missed much of last season with a knee injury. He can be a scat back if needed, but Walker and Charbonnet should be expected to hold down the bulk of backfield responsibilities. Walker will be an RB2 value this season while Charbonnet will cut into his load and have RB4 value, elevated to RB2 should Walker suffer an injury.

The backs will be running behind an offensive line that was banged up last season for Seattle. Left tackle Charles Cross played 14 games while right tackle Abraham Lucas started six and is not fully recovered from knee surgery yet. George Fant and Stone Forsythe are tackle depth, but ideally the Cross/Lucas duo holds down the tackle spots when healthy. Walker and Charbonnet’s efficiency was not great last season and a lot hinges on the health of the tackles for blocking to improve for the backs and Geno Smith this season.

Win Total

Rookie head coach Mike Macdonald is projected to lead the Seahawks to a 7.5-win total from DraftKings. The offense has a variety of playmakers, but Geno Smith doesn’t have the elite ceiling from the higher tiers of quarterbacks. The defense will benefit from Macdonald’s knowledge, but a developing team with a first-year head coach and offensive coordinator will have its share of struggles in the NFC West. Those confident in the Seahawks at least playing at the same level as last season will likely take the over while those believing in a step back in Macdonald’s first year may prefer the under.