Uncommon Knowledge
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City authorities permitted the construction of only 16 housing units in San Francisco, one of the most expensive markets in the country, in 2024 as of June—a far cry from what demand would require and what Mayor London Breed has promised.
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Preliminary 2024 data from the States of the Cities Data Systems (SOCDS) Building Permits Database shows that the total housing unit building permits for San Francisco between January and now was 16, split between seven single-family homes, six 2-unit and multi-family homes and three 3- and 4-unit multi-family homes. Among all types of units, six permits were given in January, one in February, seven in March and two in April.
Joseph Politano, an independent writer at Apricitas Economics who first shared the data on X, commented on the data saying that “it’d be hilarious if it weren’t such a nightmare.” Newsweek contacted Politano for comment by direct message on X on Tuesday morning.
San Francisco permitted two (2) housing units in April. The city’s sum total of new housing was one (1) duplex.
It’d be hilarious if it weren’t such a nightmare pic.twitter.com/KD6RLOjfmU
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) May 30, 2024
The data will be subject to revision throughout the rest of the year and might change, but as they are now, they present quite a bleak picture for San Francisco.
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Home prices have been spiraling upward in San Francisco since the Great Recession of 2008-2009 followed the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble, making buying a home in the City by the Bay unaffordable for many. While home prices in the city dropped during the U.S. housing market correction of late summer 2022 and spring 2023, a chronic shortage of homes has kept them from totally plummeting.
As of April, according to the latest Redfin data, the median sale price of a home in San Francisco was $1,400,000, up 3.7 percent compared to a year earlier. It was considerably higher than the national median sale price, which in April was $432,903, up 6.1 percent year-over-year, according to Redfin.
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Last June, Breed introduced legislation boosting the building of new homes in the city by cutting fees and removing laborious requirements for conditional use permits and mandatory public hearings, among other moves. The legislation was designed to help the city meet the state-mandated goal of building 82,000 homes by 2031 to meet the serious need for housing in the city.
But in 2023, the city issued permits for the building of only 1,823 new units, according to the data from San Francisco Planning Department mentioned by the San Francisco Standard. That was about 1,000 short of the units authorized the year before, for a total of 2,701 in 2022.
The number of total new units completed in 2023 was slightly higher, at 1,983, down from 2,893 a year earlier.
In an update in April, Breed didn’t provide concrete details about how many housing units have been authorized in the city, but said that she was “proud to say that over the last year, we’ve started to move San Francisco in the right direction on housing.”
The mayor admitted that “we are not where we need to be, and there is much more work to be done,” adding that her administration continues “to encounter obstruction and delay as we push these solutions forward, but we have made progress. We will continue to make progress.”
Newsweek contacted Breed’s office and the San Francisco Planning Department for comment by email on Tuesday morning.
But the slow pace at which the city has approved new housing units permits this year doesn’t mean that it won’t pick up later in the year. In an article published in April, the SF Standard highlighted how in 2023, the city had approved only 12 units in the first two months of the year—but the number spiked later in the year.
Time will tell whether something similar will happen again this year.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
In the North Bay, the SMART commuter rail line will begin work next week to extend service to the city of Healdsburg, with plenty of challenges, both in construction and in finding long-term funding.
As the largest city north of Santa Rosa, Healdsburg is generating considerable excitement among those who await SMART’s arrival. But first there’s a lot of work to do, starting next week.
“It starts with a topographical survey,” said SMART Chief Engineer Bill Gamlen. “Monday, we’ll be moving into geotechnical boring, where we’ll have a drill rig out on the site, and we are taking cores of soil samples. There’ll be a lot of things going in parallel. We’re going to be taking things apart, tearing out old track, taking out old bridges, tearing up grade crossings. The bridge across the Russian River will be one of the first activities there.”
That bridge was built in the 1870s and will need a complete replacement to carry the weight of the modern SMART trains. The prep work will take about a year, with actual construction beginning next spring. The $270 million in funding for the extension is already in place and SMART expects to be pulling into the old Healdsburg station sometime in late 2028.
“We think it’s a big milestone,” said Gamlen. “You know, Healdsburg is a delightful place to go visit on the weekends, and even vacation there. So, we see a lot of ridership heading up to Healdsburg, a destination, probably, more than an origination point.”
But that’s a problem, according to Mike Arnold, an economist and outspoken critic of SMART, living in Novato. Arnold said he thinks SMART will never be financially feasible because it doesn’t take people to any large urban job centers.
“The primary problem is the economics,” he said. “Passenger rail in suburbia just doesn’t get the ridership. And the reason is because there just isn’t a place for people to get to easily. There is no major employment center in either Marin or Sonoma Counties. And so, therefore, when you take people to stations, how are they going to get where they want to go? The answer is, very few of them do, and that’s why they get very few riders.”
Currently, kids and seniors pay no fare, and Arnold said that means more than 40 percent of riders are riding for free. And he points to Hwy 101, where SMART was supposed to relieve traffic during morning commute times.
Changes in work habits, brought on by the pandemic, have decreased the number of commuters, but Arnold said it has simply compressed the traffic jams into a smaller time period, with little impact from SMART.
“You’ve narrowed the peak,” he said. “But when you talk about peak-hour congestion at 7:30 in the morning, it looks like it hasn’t changed at all. And the answer is, based on the count on the cars, it really hasn’t changed at all.”
The debate matters because in June voters will be asked to decide whether or not to extend, for another 30 years, the quarter-cent sales tax to continue funding SMART. The current tax will sunset in 2029, shortly after the Healdsburg extension is scheduled to be finished.
Joby Aviation has kick-started a nationwide tour of its flying taxi. The first flight saw its aircraft fly over the San Francisco Bay Area and around the Golden Gate Bridge.
The flight took place around the same time the FAA announced a nationwide pilot program aimed at finally making commercial air taxi services a reality.
The Joby air taxi is piloted, though the company eventually aims to automate its flight services. It will be capable of flying as many as four passengers on short, urban trips, reaching cruise speeds of roughly 200 mph. Its fixed wings feature six propellers and are capable of swiveling forward after takeoff for increased speed.
Joby Aviation’s nationwide tour, dubbed the “Electric Skies Tour”, will include demonstrations in several cities throughout the US.
In a press statement, the company stated: “With one of the world’s most recognizable skylines as a backdrop, the company showcased its operational readiness in a region defined by traffic congestion, demonstrating that the future of quiet, emissions-free flight, is not just a concept, but nearing commercial readiness.”
The San Francisco flight was conducted using a pre-production prototype, designated N545JX. According to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle, the N545JX aircraft “cruised along in virtual silence” as it flew across the bay. Separately, Joby revealed earlier this month that it had flown its first “FAA-conforming” air taxi.
“With an operational foundation built on thousands of test flights and more than 50,000 miles logged across its fleet, the company is now ready to scale its presence across the US,” the company said in its statement.
Joby Aviation also noted that it is among a handful of firms selected as partners in the White House’s recently announced eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). The other companies selected are Archer Aviation, BETA Technologies, Electra, Wisk, Ampaire, Elroy Air, and Reliable Robotics.
“Here’s an opportunity for the industry to roll out in a similar way to how Waymo rolled out,” Archer Aviation CEO Adam Archer explained in a video on X after the eIPP announcement. “Rather than an all-or-nothing type certificate where you can go anywhere, or no type certificate where you can’t go anywhere… You can think about it as a few concentrated areas with very, very high margins of safety, allowing us to start very low-level operations, and then expand from there.”
According to Joby, eIPP gives it the opportunity to “begin early operations across 10 states: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, and Utah.” The company added that the program also has the “potential to meaningfully accelerate the path to commercial service.”
If all goes to plan, Joby Aviation claims it will help realize a society where a daily commute can “take minutes, not hours.”
“Our technology provides an opportunity to build on the immense potential of this region while protecting it for the next generation,” said JoeBen Bevirt, founder and CEO of Joby. “By providing clean, quiet service with minimal infrastructure investment, we are making flight an everyday reality for the community.”
The San Francisco Giants didn’t make that “major” move in the offseason. They saved those for last offseason and last year’s trade deadline.
Still, San Francisco did plenty to position itself as a team that could be better than 81-81 last season. Not all moves are created equal. Not all moves work out the way the franchise hoped. The value of some of those moves have yet to be determined.
But, on their face, here are the moves that already look smart and already look, eh, dumb, going into opening day.
The Venezuela native had a huge World Baseball Classic as his home country won the title for the first time. He had his second career multi-home run game in his WBC career. He returned to spring training and the bat kept cooking. He slashed .353/.389/.412.
While many envisioned him as a leadoff hitter due to his impressive ability to get contact and his three batting titles, San Francisco is toying with batting him later in the order. He’s one of the few contact hitters that could excel in that role, and he gives the lineup flexibility.
The Giants may get the best version of both pitchers. Before Sunday’s exhibition game in Sacramento, Mahle had thrown 10 scoreless innings in spring and showed no signs of the shoulder fatigue that limited him last season. Houser has thrown 11 innings and while he hasn’t been as effective, he looks like the innings-eater the Giants hoped they signed.
With the season-ending injury to Hayden Birdsong and the underperformance of the Carsons — Seymour and Whisenhunt — signing the two veterans to inexpensive deals looks smarter by the day.
He’s day-to-day with a tight hamstring, but it’s a minor inconvenience this early in the campaign. San Francisco knew what they were getting when they signed him — a Gold Glove level center fielder with a resurgent bat who can make their entire outfield better. It allowed San Francisco to move Jung Hoo Lee to right field, which should improve his defensive numbers. San Francisco locked him into a cheap two-year deal. It should pay off handsomely.
San Francisco knew it was going to have some issues at left-handed relief. Erik Miller was going to need time to recover from a back issue. Sam Hentges won’t be ready after arthroscopic knee surgery. Then the Giants lost Reiver Sanmartin for three months to hip surgery. At one point the only healthy left-handed reliever in camp was Matt Gage.
San Francisco tried addressing it by signing Joey Lucchesi. But the Giants released him on Sunday after signing Ryan Borucki. But a bit more careful planning might have lessened San Francisco’s need to scramble this late in camp.
The Giants signed left-hander Jason Foley to bolster the bullpen. He had 28 saves for the Detroit Tigers in 2024. There was one problem. His recovery from shoulder surgery will keep him out of the lineup until the second half of the season.
That puts the pressure on Ryan Walker to not only be the closer but keep the job. He wants the pressure, he has said repeatedly in camp. He’s held the job before but not consistently. If he meets the moment, the Giants look smart for trusting him. If he can’t, San Francisco doesn’t have a healthy back-up plan until the All-Star break.
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