- CIA produced reports highlighting Cuba’s economic collapse
- Energy sector was portrayed in particularly dire shape
- Trump suggested US raid in Venezuela could cause Cuba to fall
- CIA view was inconclusive on whether economic hardship would mean collapse of the government
World
Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling
MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.
Sign up here.
But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.
CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP
These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.
“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”
The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.
Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.
Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.
ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?
Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.
But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.
The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.
Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.
OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE
Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.
Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.
Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”
He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.
“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.
“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”
Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Live updatesLive updates,
The US president says he will ‘soon be reviewing the plan Iran has just sent to us’, but doesn’t think he can make a deal.
Published On 3 May 2026
If you purchase an independently reviewed product or service through a link on our website, Variety may receive an affiliate commission.
In a title bout for the undisputed super bantamweight (junior featherweight) championship, Japanese fighter Naoya Inoue takes on fellow Japanese boxer Junto Nakatani in a 12-round match. What’s on the line? Inoue’s IBF, WBC and WBO World Super Bantam title belts. At the end of the contest, one of these fighters will have both titles — or it will end with a draw.
On Saturday, May 2, Inoue (32-0-0) vs. Nakatani (32-0-0) takes place at Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan with a start time of 3 a.m. ET/12 a.m. PT. Ringwalk for the main event is expected around 8 a.m. ET/5 a.m. PT.
Inoue vs. Nakatani is available as a premium live boxing event, so it’s free to watch for DAZN subscribers.
Not a DAZN subscriber? Right now, you can purchase access to the event starting at $20.99/month. Additionally, DAZN’s “Ultimate Tier” plan goes for just $49.99/month to get access to this PPV event, as well as 11 other PPV events throughout the year at no extra cost. It’s just a flat monthly subscription price. The plan also have access to more than 100 live fights all year long, as well as fight replays, highlights and documentaries.
The fights during the Inoue vs. Nakatani event are free to watch for subscribers.
Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani Odds & Predictions
For the main event, Inoue is the favorite to heavy win against Nakatani. Oddsmakers give Naoya Inoue a -450 moneyline (bet $450 to win $100), while Junto Nakatani received a line of +310 (bet $100 to win $310), as the underdog. Want more odds? Check out the complete odds and wagers at BetMGM.com online here.
Taking place on Saturday, May 2, Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani is available to livestream on DAZN for subscribers.
Main Card, 3 a.m. ET/12 a.m. PT
- Super Bantamweight (Junior Featherweight): Naoya Inoue (champion) vs. Junto Nakatani — Main Event, IBF, WBC and WBO World Super Bantam Title Fight
- Bantamweight: Takuma Inoue (champion) vs. Kazuto Ioka — WBC Title Fight
- Featherweight: Toshiki Shimomachi vs. Reiya Abe
- Welterweight: Sora Tanaka vs. Jin Sasaki
- Flyweight: Kosuke Tomioka vs. Shogo Tanaka
- Super Middleweight: Deok No Yun vs. Yuito Moriwaki
- Super Bantamweight: Yoshiki Takei vs. Dekang Wang
Fan of world sports? DAZN is the home to global sports, including FIFA, BKFC, National League, UEFA Women’s Championship League, ERC and WRC racing, Riyadh Season boxing, NFL Game Pass International and other American and international sports leagues. Learn more about DAZN and its programming here.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US)
Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY)
Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA)
21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.
See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk on Tuesday accused Iran’s regime of dramatically intensifying its crackdown on dissent in the wake of the February conflict, warning that Tehran has carried out executions, mass arrests, torture and one of the world’s longest internet shutdowns while invoking national security.
In a sharply worded statement from Geneva, Türk said at least 21 people have been executed and more than 4,000 arrested on national security-related charges since Feb. 28, as the regime faces mounting scrutiny over what he described as a sweeping assault on fundamental rights.
“I am appalled that, on top of the already severe impacts of the conflict, the rights of the Iranian people continue to be stripped from them by the authorities, in harsh and brutal ways,” Türk said.
COULD NARGES MOHAMMADI UNITE IRAN’S OPPOSITION? HUSBAND SAYS IMPRISONED NOBEL LAUREATE STILL FIGHTING
A protester holds ‘Stop executions in Iran’ and ‘Free Iran’ placards during the demonstration. Demonstrators gathered outside Downing Street in protest against executions in Iran and in support of freedom for Iran. (Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Since the start of the conflict two months ago, the U.N. said nine people have been executed in connection with the January 2026 protests, 10 for alleged membership in opposition groups, and two on espionage charges. It’s estimated that some 40,000 people were killed by regime forces during January’s uprising.
Türk warned that Iran’s broad use of vaguely defined national security laws has enabled authorities to fast-track prosecutions, deny legal counsel, and rely on coerced confessions.
“Even where national security is invoked, human rights can only be limited where strictly necessary and proportionate,” he said, calling on Tehran to halt executions, impose a moratorium on capital punishment, and immediately release those arbitrarily detained.
For many Iranian dissidents, the findings reflect an already dire reality.
A billboard depicting Iran’s supreme leaders since 1979: (L to R) Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini (until 1989), Ali Khamenei (until 2026), and Mojtaba Khamenei (incumbent) is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. Iran marked the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father as its supreme leader on March 9, 2026. (AFP/Via Getty Images)
“It is bad,” Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the Iran So Far Away Substack, told Fox News Digital. “They’re completely killing off the country.”
On Saturday, it was reported that Iran had executed another athlete, a 21-year-old karate champion. Sassan Azadvar Joonqani was detained in January during the anti-regime protests and was executed by the regime on Thursday, according to a report in Euronews.
Wrestling champion Saleh Mohammadi was executed by the regime in March for alleged illegal actions in January’s protests against the authorities. (The Foreign Desk)
In March, Iran executed another athlete, 19-year-old wrestling champion Saleh Mohammadi, for protesting against the regime, Fox News Digital reported.
Türk’s office said detainees have reportedly faced enforced disappearances, torture, mock executions, and televised confessions, with ethnic and religious minorities including Bahá’ís, Zoroastrians, Kurds and Baluch Iranians facing particular risk.
RUBIO REVOKES IRANIAN OFFICIALS’ US TRAVEL PRIVILEGES OVER DEADLY PROTEST CRACKDOWN KILLING THOUSANDS
Ali and Kiana Rahmani accept the Nobel Peace Prize 2023 on behalf of their mother, imprisoned Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, at Oslo City Hall in Norway on Dec. 10, 2023. (Javad Parsa/NTB/Reuters)
Among those cited by the U.N. was imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, whose condition sharply worsened Friday after what her family described as a catastrophic health crisis following months of being denied specialized care.
According to a statement from the Narges Foundation that was published Friday, Mohammadi was urgently transferred by ambulance from Zanjan Prison to a hospital after suffering two episodes of complete loss of consciousness in a single day, accompanied by severe cardiac distress. The foundation said prison doctors determined her condition could no longer be managed on-site after what her family called a “last-minute” transfer that may have come dangerously late.
Her husband, Taghi Rahmani, told Fox News Digital earlier this week that her physical condition had already become increasingly dire after what he described as a violent arrest and deteriorating prison treatment. “She has sustained severe trauma and urgently requires medical attention.”
Rahmani previously said Mohammadi’s medical team and outside specialists had pushed for treatment in Tehran due to her history of multiple heart procedures, while authorities allegedly blocked those recommendations until her condition became life-threatening. Despite her physical decline, Rahmani said, “Spiritually and mentally, Narges remains steadfast.”
IRAN’S KHAMENEI LASHES OUT AT PROTESTERS AS NATIONWIDE ANTI-REGIME UNREST GROWS
In this photo obtained by The Associated Press, tear gas is fired during an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (UGC via AP) (UGC via AP)
The U.N. statement, combined with Mohammadi’s emergency hospitalization, has intensified scrutiny of Iran’s prison conditions, which Türk described as marked by overcrowding, medical neglect, and severe human rights abuses.
Türk also cited dire prison conditions, including overcrowding, shortages of food, water and medicine, and denial of medical care.
The U.N. further highlighted reports of lethal violence in detention facilities, including claims that security forces killed at least five detainees in Chabahar Prison after protests over suspended food distribution.
But while dissidents welcomed the U.N.’s unusually forceful language, some also questioned whether condemnation without action can meaningfully alter conditions, especially as Iran this week was elevated to a vice-chair role on a U.N. nuclear nonproliferation committee.
“The reason why Iranians just don’t trust, don’t like and don’t want to know from the U.N.,” Zand said, is what she described as its repeated failure “to rise to the occasion of responding to the regime and holding their feet to the fire at the right time… with the right amount of pressure.”
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Iranian diaspora activists gathered in front of the German Federal Foreign Office in Berlin on Jan. 27, 2024, to protest the increase in death sentences by Iran’s Islamic Republic rulers. The demonstration was organized by the Echo Iran group. (Echo Iran/Middle East Images/AFP)
While she said the latest statement itself was important, Zand argued many view such condemnations as hollow when paired with what they see as institutional legitimacy granted to Tehran.
“They’re making a statement… fine,” she said. “But what are they gonna do about it?”
-
Entertainment3 minutes agoOpinion: ‘All the President’s Men’ is 50 years old. A former Post staffer tells us why that matters
-
Lifestyle9 minutes agoTheir love blossomed in the buzzy L.A. restaurant scene. So what was their wedding food?
-
Politics15 minutes agoYour guide to the L.A. City Council District 5 race: Katy Yaroslavsky faces two challengers
-
Sports27 minutes ago‘We’re back, baby!’ UCLA coach Bob Chesney restores Bruins’ festive spring game experience
-
World39 minutes agoTrump says he will review Iran’s new 14-point plan; Israel pounds Lebanon
-
News1 hour agoBard College’s president to retire after scrutiny of relationship with Jeffrey Epstein
-
New York3 hours agoShe’s Riding in Five Boro Bike Tour, and She’s Happy to Wear a Helmet
-
Detroit, MI3 hours agoHayley Williams says ‘c u soon’ to Detroit, hinting at upcoming tour