- CIA produced reports highlighting Cuba’s economic collapse
- Energy sector was portrayed in particularly dire shape
- Trump suggested US raid in Venezuela could cause Cuba to fall
- CIA view was inconclusive on whether economic hardship would mean collapse of the government
World
Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling
MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.
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But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.
CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP
These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.
“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”
The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.
Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.
Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.
ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?
Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.
But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.
The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.
Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.
OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE
Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.
Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.
Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”
He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.
“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.
“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”
Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
World
War, latest news. Trump: agreement with Iran to be signed soon. Tehran media: approval likely from top officials
Oxfam: ‘Over 540 settler attacks in the West Bank in the first few months of 2026’
A new analysis by Oxfam highlights the exponential rise in attacks by Israeli settlers and military forces in the occupied West Bank: in the first few months of 2026 alone, there were over 540 incidents and “in three years, the number of Palestinian civilians killed has exceeded that of the previous 17 years”, mainly children. According to the report, based on an analysis of data provided by the United Nations, “it is clear that Israel’s annexation plan is accelerating, with mass forced displacements, increased restrictions on Palestinians’ freedom of movement and an unprecedented escalation of violence by settlers and the army”. A plan of ethnic cleansing and annexation that, since 2023, has caused over 46,000 people to be displaced, the construction of over 925 barriers that impede the movement of 3 million people, and an unprecedented wave of violence that has claimed over 1,200 lives, including nearly 270 children. In particular, between 2006 and 2022, Oxfam points out, there were 1,036 victims, including 225 children, whilst since 2023 alone, 1,244 have been recorded, with 268 children killed. This means that, over the last 20 years, one in five killings involved a child, around 22 per cent. By contrast, in the first 17 years under review, 86 Israeli settlers were killed by Palestinians, including 12 children, whilst there were 43 victims, including 10 children, between 2023 and 2025. “The massacre of civilians we are witnessing is painful and disturbing,” said Paolo Pezzati, spokesperson for humanitarian crises at Oxfam Italia – “Whilst the eyes of the world were rightly focused on the genocide committed by Israel in Gaza, following the atrocities committed by Hamas and other armed groups in 2023, an unprecedented wave of violence was unfolding across the West Bank, which has now escalated into a systematic plan of ethnic cleansing. In this context, we are therefore launching an urgent appeal for all necessary diplomatic pressure to be brought to bear on Israel to halt the ongoing annexation plan,” concludes Pezzati.
US: third Iranian oil tanker breaching the blockade neutralised
The US Central Command stated on X that it had intercepted an oil tanker, the third in a week, accused of violating the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command says it struck the M/T Jalveer, flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau, “as it attempted to transport oil from Iran through the Gulf of Oman”. “A US aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles at the ship’s engine room after the crew repeatedly refused to obey orders from US forces,” Centcom said.
Meloni: the Council should reflect on the direction of relations between the EU and Israel
“Not only because of what is happening in Lebanon, but also given the situation in Gaza and the West Bank, it is clear that the European Council will need to reflect on the direction of relations between the European Union and Israel.” This was stated by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the Chamber of Deputies, in her address ahead of the EU Council meeting. “On this,” she added, “I would like, for once, to see a debate here that goes beyond the emphasis on facile polemics, which certainly yields an immediate return in terms of visibility, but does not reflect the strategic importance that the issue holds for Italia.”
World
Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sentenced to 30 years over North Korea drone flights
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A South Korean court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to 30 years in prison Friday in a case that accused him of ordering drone flights over North Korea in an effort to justify his declaration of martial law.
Yoon, 65, was sentenced alongside former Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun by the Seoul Central District Court.
The ousted president was previously sentenced to life in prison for leading an insurrection following his declaration of martial law in December 2024.
North Korea accused South Korea of flying drones over Pyongyang to drop propaganda leaflets on three occasions in October 2024.
SOUTH KOREAN LAWMAKERS SUPPORT SUSPENDING PRESIDENT’S POWERS AFTER SHORT-LIVED MARTIAL LAW DECLARATION
South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol attends a hearing of his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Feb. 11, 2025. (Lee Jin-man/AP)
Then-Defense Minister Kim initially issued a vague denial before South Korea’s Defense Ministry said it could neither confirm nor deny the allegations.
Although tensions between the two Koreas escalated following the incident, the drone flights did not lead to any military clashes.
Prosecutors accused Yoon of attempting to create a crisis with North Korea while plotting an authoritarian power grab aimed at removing political opponents and consolidating control.
SOUTH KOREAN COURT RULES EX‑PRESIDENT YOON SUK YEOL GUILTY IN INSURRECTION TRIAL
Supporters of former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stage a rally outside the Seoul High Court in Seoul on April 29, 2026. (Ahn Young-joon/AP)
Before declaring martial law, Yoon delivered a televised address accusing liberal lawmakers of sympathizing with North Korea.
Yoon has argued that he possessed the constitutional authority to declare martial law and said the move was intended to draw attention to what he viewed as obstruction by opposition parties.
His attempt to impose martial law lasted roughly six hours before lawmakers voted to overturn it amid mass public protests.
Yoon was arrested in July 2025 and continues to face multiple criminal proceedings.
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South Korea’s ousted former President Yoon Suk Yeol arrives at Seoul Central District Court in Seoul to attend his trial on charges related to declaring martial law on Dec. 3, 2025. (Ahn Young-joon/AP)
The insurrection verdict has been appealed by both Yoon and prosecutors, who had sought the death penalty.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
President Tinubu takes victorious tone despite recent mass kidnappings by armed groups across the country.
Published On 12 Jun 2026
Nigeria’s military has “neutralised” more than 13,000 “terrorists” in the past year, the president says, as armed groups and criminal gangs continue to carry out mass attacks and kidnappings in the country.
In a televised national address on Friday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the death toll from Nigeria’s fight against armed rebels is down 81 percent since he took power in 2023.
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Tinubu added that “124,000 fighters and dependants have laid down their arms since 2023 through Operation Safe Corridor,” a programme aimed at rehabilitating repentant armed group members who voluntarily lay down their arms.
Tinubu’s speech was in commemoration of Nigeria’s Democracy Day, which marks the end of several years of military rule and the restoration of democracy in 1999.
However, despite the victorious tone of his speech, Africa’s second-biggest economy is in the throes of a spiralling insecurity crisis that has seen armed groups linked to ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda, as well as criminal gangs, abduct citizens for ransom money.
Soft targets, including schools, churches and mosques, particularly in vulnerable rural communities with limited state security presence, have been particularly at risk.
While armed groups initially limited their operations to the country’s north, they have begun spreading through thick forest corridors to attack targets in the country’s southwest.
Officials say the groups are shifting base because of military pressure on their locations.
Following unfounded allegations of a “Christian genocide” in the country by US President Donald Trump late last year, the United States military has since begun supporting Nigeria in conducting precision strikes on armed group locations. In February, 100 American soldiers were deployed to Nigeria.
Scores of people have been abducted since January alone, including teachers and pupils as young as four years old. The latest incident in May saw 46 people kidnapped from a school in southwest Oyo state.
On Monday, the Nigerian military said it rescued 360 people kidnapped by ISIL-linked Boko Haram and held in a remote mountain hideout in northern Borno State.
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