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Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling

Published

1 week ago

January 11, 2026

Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling

MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.

The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.

But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.

CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP

These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”

The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.

Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.

Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.

ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?

Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.

But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.

The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.

Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.

OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE

Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.

Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.

Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”

He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.

“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.

“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”

Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel

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Gram Slattery is a White House correspondent in Washington, focusing on national security, intelligence and foreign affairs. He was previously a national political correspondent, covering the 2024 presidential campaign. From 2015 to 2022, he held postings in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Santiago, Chile, and he has reported extensively throughout Latin America.

Humeyra Pamuk is a senior foreign policy correspondent based in Washington DC. She covers the U.S. State Department, regularly traveling with U.S. Secretary of State. During her 20 years with Reuters, she has had postings in London, Dubai, Cairo and Turkey, covering everything from the Arab Spring and Syria’s civil war to numerous Turkish elections and the Kurdish insurgency in the southeast. In 2017, she won the Knight-Bagehot fellowship program at Columbia University’s School of Journalism. She holds a BA in International Relations and an MA on European Union studies.

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World

Iranian soldier sentenced to death for refusing to fire on protesters during nationwide unrest

Published

2 hours ago

January 21, 2026

Press Room

Iranian soldier sentenced to death for refusing to fire on protesters during nationwide unrest

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A young soldier who refused to obey orders to shoot protesters during one of Iran’s most intense waves of nationwide unrest has been sentenced to death, a human rights group reported Tuesday.

The Iran Human Rights Society (IHRS) identified the soldier as Javid Khales, who was arrested during the nationwide protests of 1404, a major wave of anti-regime demonstrations from late 2025 to early 2026 calling for an end to the country’s current dictatorship.

“According to informed sources, when faced with the command to shoot at protesting people, he refused to execute the order, leading to his immediate arrest and the opening of a case against him,” IHRS said.

Witnesses claimed Khales, now in Isfahan prison, did not commit a crime but refused to shoot in an act of humanity, the group said.

LINDSEY GRAHAM SPEAKS AGAINST PENDING EXECUTION OF 26-YEAR-OLD IRANIAN PROTESTER: ‘THIS REGIME MUST FALL’

Iranian security forces escalated from pellet guns to live ammunition during protests. (Getty)

While the unrest has already led to thousands of arrests and deaths among protesters, Khales’ planned execution further raises concerns over unfair, state-sanctioned killings and rushed trials that deny defendants proper legal protections.

“Amid the continuation of protests and the intensification of deadly repression against the people, the news of Javid Khales — a young soldier who refused to shoot at protesters — being sentenced to death has heightened concerns about a new wave of judicial massacre,” the human rights group said.

“This sentence comes at a time when judiciary officials have openly spoken of summary trials and the swift execution of death sentences against those arrested in the protests.”

IRAN ACCUSED OF KILLING 16,500 IN SWEEPING ‘GENOCIDE’ CRACKDOWN: REPORT

The death toll from Iranian protests rises as hundreds are allegedly killed by government forces. (MAHSA/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

A judiciary spokesperson and the Tehran prosecutor, in separate statements, emphasized that cases involving dissidents must be resolved as quickly as possible, IHRS reported, raising concerns that executions could take place outside proper legal procedures. Human rights sources say many detainees have remained in custody without access to a lawyer or a fair trial.

The organization added that Khales’ death sentence is seen as part of a broader effort to instill fear, “enforce absolute obedience and intensify protest repression.”

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

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Over the past several days, the government shut down and restricted the internet nationwide to prevent protesters from organizing. Human rights activists say the blackout was also a strategic move to conceal the realities on the ground and suppress public reaction.

Precise details were unavailable regarding Khales’ case, his current status or the judicial process.

Bonny Chu is a Digital Production Assistant at Fox News Digital.

World

Israel’s Netanyahu to join ‘board of peace’

Published

3 hours ago

January 21, 2026

Press Room

Israel’s Netanyahu to join ‘board of peace’

DEVELOPING STORY,

Published On 21 Jan 2026

Israel’s ‍Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ⁠has accepted an invitation from United States President Donald ‍Trump to join the “board of ⁠peace”.

The Israeli leader’s office announced on social media on Wednesday that Netanyahu is to join the initiative, despite the fact that it was unveiled as part of phase two of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas to end Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

Numerous world leaders have been invited to join the body, which Trump envisages would oversee “governance capacity-building, regional relations, reconstruction, investment attraction, large-scale funding, and capital mobilisation” in the enclave.

However, Netanyahu’s participation will add to concerns over the objectivity of the board, which will be led by, and its lineup controlled by, Trump.

More to come …