San Diego, CA
To find California’s biggest rent hikes, see who’s hiring
If you want to see where California rents are rising the most – follow the paychecks.
Let’s peek inside rent swings in California counties to see what landlords are charging and who’s hiring. My trusty spreadsheet looked at Zillow rent data for 30 big counties, comparing this spring (averages March to May) with 2023 and pre-coronavirus 2019. Those gyrations were matched up with the ups and downs of state employment tallies in those counties – counting how many residents have a job.
Think about the past year and how rents and work gyrated.
Of these 30 counties, the 12 with employment gains during the last 12 months averaged 3.8% rent increases. Meanwhile, the 18 counties with fewer workers had only 3.1% average rent hikes.
Lots of factor move rents – from how many folks need rentals to how many new units are built. But often we forget a force that helps drive housing – you need a paycheck to afford a place to live.
Puzzle pieces
Employment surges and retreats are key puzzle pieces to understanding the demand and pricing for housing.
It’s especially true in a crazy expensive place like California.
Look at the counties where rent rose the most last year. Yes, these five counties had mixed employment performance.
San Luis: Rents up 6.5% but 1.3% employment loss.
Monterey: Rents up 5.8% with 2.9% employment gain.
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Shasta: Rents up 4.9% with 1.1% employment gain.
Fresno: Rents up 4.8% with 0.5% employment loss.
Santa Cruz: Rents up 4.8% but 0.4% employment loss.
But to see that jobs matter in real estate, focus on the counties with the smallest rent hikes. All had shrinking job markets.
San Bernardino: Rents up 2.2% with 0.6% employment loss.
Butte: Up 2.2% with 0.4% employment loss.
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Los Angeles: Up 1.9% with 0.7% employment loss.
San Francisco: Up 0.5% with 2.5% employment loss.
Alameda: Down 1% with 1.2% employment loss.
Longer lens
The job market’s sway on rents is even clearer over the longer run.
Take a long lens and go back to spring 2019, well before the pandemic upended the economy.
The 14 counties with employment gains over these past five years averaged 43% rent increases. Meanwhile, the 16 counties with fewer workers had just 25% rent hikes.
Look at the counties with the biggest five-year rent hikes – and their paychecks …
Kern: 52% rent increase with 0.8% employment rise.
Santa Barbara: 52% rent increase but 1.8% employment dip.
Fresno: 51% rent increase with 1.8% employment rise.
Riverside: 48% rent increase with 4.4% employment rise.
Tulare: 47% rent increase with 4.9% employment rise.
Next, look at the counties with the weakest rent pricing since 2019. All had stumbling job markets in the period …
Contra Costa: 20% rent increase as employment dipped 3%.
Santa Clara: 11% rent increase as employment dipped 2.6%.
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San Mateo: 7% rent increase as employment dipped 4.3%.
Alameda: 7% rent increase as employment dipped 3.4%.
San Francisco: 3% rent increase as employment dipped 4.9%.
Bottom line
Affordability matters, too, in an age where many workers can do their jobs remotely and relocate to cheaper locales.
Contemplate the 10 cheapest counties, as of this past spring. Rents averaged $1,974 – up 41% in five years, as employment rose 1.5% since 2019.
Contrast that to the high end, the 10 counties with the priciest rents.
These landlords get an average $3,297 a month cost – 67% higher than the cheapest markets.
And California renting’s upper crust only got 26% increases over five years. Why? Well, employment dropped by 3.3% in these job markets.
Now housing “bargains” are rare in California. So is it much of a surprise that four of the five cheapest counties for tenants have more employees than 2019?
Fresno: $1,922 rent, up 51% in five years, as employment rose 1.8%.
Kern: $1,809 rent, up 52% in five years. Employment up 0.8%.
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Tulare: $1,802 rent, up 47% in five years. Employment up 4.9%.
Butte: $1,633 rent, up 25% in five years. Employment off 6.5%.
Shasta: $1,577 rent, up 41% in five years. Employment up 2.2%.
Conversely, California’s priciest spots for rentals are counties clustered near the Bay Area. It’s not been a pretty place for employment of late.
Marin: $3,914 rents were up 21% in five years. Meanwhile, employment dropped 5.3%.
Santa Cruz: $3,575 rent, up 36% in five years. Employment off 6.5%.
Santa Clara: $3,356 rent, up 11% in five years. Employment off 2.6%.
San Francisco: $3,323 rent, off 3% in five years. Employment off 4.9%.
San Mateo: $3,306 rent, up 7% in five years. Employment off 4.3%.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
San Diego, CA
Guest Column: The black hole in the center of Poway
Those of us who live near the City of Poway Town Center have experienced and continue to see a development project that has languished for over five years and now clearly can be defined as blight.
It is a “black hole” that is anchored in the center of the city near the intersection of Poway and Community roads, one block from City Hall. The project is adjacent to the Poway shopping center plaza, a Section 8 apartment complex and the Poway Bernardo Mortuary.
Those of us who live in central Poway have this visual blight, which consists of a partially constructed vacant multistory building and an unfinished tiered underground parking structure. This incomplete project was approved by the City Council in 2018 as a mixed-use development project.
It sits on a one-and-a-half-acre infill site and was originally permitted for 53 residential units, a 40,000-square-foot commercial space, a 20,025-square-foot fitness center and a two-tiered underground parking structure.
Over the last five years it has transitioned through three different developers and multiple permit amendments. The current and final amended project is a significantly scaled-down project. It would take someone with a bachelor’s degree in city and urban planning to read the permit amendments and comprehend what the final project will consist of if and when it is completed.
Those of us who live in or near the Town Center district are aware the Poway Road Specific Plan was approved with City Council commitment that high-density development would be well planned and would consist of “efficient high-density development.”
A blighted development project that has not been completed and has remained vacant and unfinished for five years is not keeping with the Specific Plan. This project is a blemish on central Poway. The City Council has not implemented solutions to complete this unfinished project.
Further, other development projects in the same corridor have as a matter of practice during their construction phases posted signage on their respective construction fencing, advertising what the project consists of and when it is estimated to be completed. The “black hole” has no such signage on its construction fencing and the general public has no idea what this project consists of or when it will be completed.
Direct attempts and meetings to obtain information from previous and current city representatives have resulted in finger-pointing at the developer. Two developers have already walked away from this project and the third and current developer is under contract with a local general contractor.
The City Council approved, conditioned and permitted this project. I have to think that if this project was located in the “Farm” development area and stood half developed and vacant for over five years there would be a different level of urgency by the council to finding a solution to correct this unsightly development project.
The council has failed those of us who live in and near the Poway Town Center corridor. Stop blaming the developer and get this failed project completed.
Locke is a 22-year U.S. Marine Corp veteran and a longtime Poway resident.
San Diego, CA
Frustrated teachers walk out of SBUSD meeting that decided to close Central Elementary
Frustrations boiled over at Wednesday night’s South Bay Union School District meeting. Parents and teachers are upset that the district is going to shut down Central Elementary and possibly two others at a later time.
At one point in the meeting, teachers got so upset that they walked out. It came after the school board voted unanimously to approve an interim superintendent’s pay package for nearly $18,500 a month.
That payday comes at time when teachers rallied outside the meeting because they might strike since they’ve been in contract negotiations for more than a year.
The board also voted unanimously to close Central Elementary at the end of this school year. Berry and Sunnyslope Elementary schools could close as well, at a later time. But that’ll be based on a review of enrollment and financial data going forward.
The district says declining enrollment and declining revenues are major problems and factors in its decision. It says keeping under enrolled schools open would increase maintenance costs, stretch limited resources and hamper the ability to deliver equitable services across all schools.
But teachers and parents say paying the interim superintendent that amount of money shows it’s a matter of allocation and priorities.
Hinting that district leaders are being scrooges, a group of teachers took a page out of “A Christmas Carol” and dressed as ghosts.
“By closing these doors, you destroyed the heart of community. Families see no future, pack their cars and leave behind empty houses and desolate streets,” one teacher said.
While only Central is closing this year, Sunnyslope could close at the end of the 2028-2029 school year. Berry could close at the end of the 2031-2032 school year.
San Diego, CA
Spring Valley Christian school teacher suspected of sexually abusing child
A 49-year-old teacher at Christian High School, suspected of sexually abusing a minor, was arrested Tuesday outside the Spring Valley school affiliated with Shadow Mountain Community Church.
Kevin G. Conover was booked at the San Diego Central Jail on suspicion of oral copulation with a victim under 18, aggravated sexual abuse of a child under 14, three counts of lewd and lascivious acts with a child, and continuous sexual abuse of a child, according to the San Diego County Sheriff’s Office.
Deputies initially responded to a radio call regarding sexual assault allegations of a minor by a family member on Oct. 1, prompting an immediate investigation by Child Abuse Unit detectives, who later found probable cause to arrest Conover, sheriff’s officials said.
Conover was described as a teacher at the school in Tuesday’s statement from the sheriff’s office announcing his arrest. However, there were no references to him on the school’s website on Tuesday night.
The investigation remains ongoing by the Child Abuse Unit as investigators conduct a follow-up into the allegations.
Anyone with information regarding the alleged abuse was urged to call the Child Abuse Unit at 858-285-6112. Calls after business hours should be directed to 858-868-3200. Tipsters who remain anonymous can call Crime Stoppers at 888-580-8477.
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