Oregon
Oregon vs. Iowa score prediction by expert football model
A major Big Ten matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 9 Oregon goes across the country in a test against newly-ranked No. 20 Iowa in Week 11 college football action on Saturday.
Iowa broke into the first College Football Playoff rankings on the back of a strong defense and a 4-1 record in Big Ten play, while Oregon is at one loss and with little room for error in this road test.
What do the analytics predict as the Ducks visit the Hawkeyes this weekend?
For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Iowa compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.
The model likes the Ducks to stand firm in this road test against the Hawkeyes.
SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Iowa by a projected score of 28 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.5 points.
The model gives the Ducks a 68 percent chance of outright victory over the Hawkeyes.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.
The betting markets are siding with the Ducks over the Hawkeyes, but not by as much as a touchdown.
Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the game lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -240 and for Iowa at +198 to win outright.
Oregon arrives with elite offensive balance and a defense that’s allowed less than 15 points per game, and they need this one to stay on a playoff trajectory.
Iowa brings a stout defense and home-field edge at Kinnick Stadium, aiming to capitalize on the Ducks’ road trip vulnerability.
Expect Oregon to edge the Hawkeyes, but Iowa could stay close if they dominate time of possession early.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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The undefeated Oregon Ducks women’s basketball team is preparing for their first Big Ten contest of the season, traveling south to Westwood to take on No. 4 UCLA. The Ducks are fresh off a rivalry win over Oregon State that saw their record improve to 10-0.
How to Watch Oregon vs. UCLA
When: Sunday, Dec. 7, at 12:00 p.m. PST
Where: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, California
TV Broadcast: Fox Sports, Fox One, Fubo
Radio Broadcast: Oregon Sports Network
Prediction: UCLA defeats Oregon Ducks 91-82.
It is naive to think a team can go an entire season unbeaten, and as good as the Ducks have looked, UCLA has demonstrated they are a powerhouse in women’s basketball this season.
The Bruins’ only loss of the season has come to No. 2 Texas in late November, and the Bruins defeated No. 19 Tennessee 99-77 a week ago. Oregon keeps this one respectable and may even have the lead at points, but the Bruins will be able to dominate the boards and capitalize on second-chance points at home.
Ducks Will Need Big Performances From Star Players
The Ducks will hope that guards Katie Fiso and Elisa Mevius continue their run of good form, and that forward Mia Jacobs can put together double-digit points on the stat sheet once again. Fiso had 23 points on 9/11 shooting from the floor in the Ducks’ last game against Oregon State.
The Ducks shot an astonishing 80 percent from beyond the arc in the game against the Beavers, and if they can shoot just half of that against UCLA, they’ll put themselves in a good position to be in the game down the stretch.
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A big key to the game will be the fundamentals: rebounding and free throws. The Ducks lacked in both departments despite winning against Oregon State. The Beavers out-rebounded the Ducks 25-23, and also shot better from the free-throw line. The Ducks shot just 60 percent from the charity stripe and allowed the Beavers to collect 14 offensive rebounds.
Oregon Will Have To Slow Down High Flying Bruins
The biggest test for Oregon will be slowing down the UCLA offense. The Bruins boast arguably the best offense in the country, and Gabriela Jaquez is a big reason why. Jaquez was 5-6 from beyond the arc in the Bruins’ win against Tennessee, and Guard Kiki Rice had 20 points while reeling in 11 rebounds.
The Bruins are also able to get production off the bench. Forward Angela Dugalic put together a performance against Tennessee that included 14 points, six rebounds, three steals, and two assists. This Big Ten showdown will be a great litmus test for the Ducks that will give fans a clearer idea of just how close Oregon is to competing for a national championship.
Eric Dailey Jr. lead all five UCLA starters in double figures with 18 points on 6-of-9 shooting and UCLA handed Oregon a 74-63 defeat on Saturday.
Tyler Bilodeau scored 14 points, Skyy Clark and Donovan Dent each scored 13 and Xavier Booker 12 for the Bruins (7-2, 2-0 Big Ten).
UCLA has won back-to-back games and four of its last five. The Bruins have nearly a full week to prepare for their second-biggest matchup of the year when they host 11th-ranked Gonzaga on Dec. 13.
On Nov. 14, then No. 5 Arizona beat the Bruins — who were then ranked 15th — 69-65 in the Hall of Fame Series in Inglewood, California.
Xavier Booker scored 20 points and Takai Simpkins scored 14 points for Oregon, which shot just 34% (19 of 56).
The Bruins led 44-31 at halftime and UCLA repeatedly thwarted Oregon attempts to pull even and regain the lead. The Ducks never got within three points in the second half.
Shelstad made a 3-pointer with 17:37 before halftime to give Oregon its last lead at 5-3. Dailey made a jump shot and a pair of foul shots and UCLA led the remainder.
The Ducks (4-5, 0-2) haven’t won since Nov. 17 when they beat rival Oregon State 87-75 in Eugene, Oregon.
Up next
Losers of five straight, Oregon hosts UC Davis on Dec. 13.
UCLA hosts 11th-ranked Gonzaga on Dec. 13.
UCLA will look to stay undefeated in conference play this season, but three key Oregon players stand in the way and could threaten the Bruins.
Last game, the Bruins really struggled against individual performances, especially against star center Hannes Steinbach, a player who put up 29 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 11 for 12. UCLA has a new set of talent looking to bring them down.
Nate Bittle | Center
Hannes Steinbach exposed a key weakness in UCLA’s defense — the Bruins struggle against skilled centers. Fortunately for UCLA, they haven’t faced many this season. That changes against Oregon, where they’ll match up with a player on Steinbach’s level in Nate Bittle.
The 7’0 center from Oregon is averaging 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, while shooting 48.3%. Bittle is the Ducks’ leading scorer and rebounder this season. Shutting him down quickly will be in the Bruins’ best interest.
Xavier Booker will have to learn quickly from the Washington showdown if there is any hope in slowing down Bittle.
Kwame Evans Jr. | F
Like Bittle, Kwame Evans Jr poses as a serious rebounding threat. Something that Eric Dailey Jr will have to slow down. Dailey Jr has struggled as of late, but we can be sure that he will not be outplayed on a stage as big as this one.
Evans Jr is averaging 12.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting an impressive 50% from the field. His ability to rebound and score at a high level will make him a threat in this game.
In his last game against USC he scored 23 points, while shooting 6-12. He also shot well from three going 2-5, highlighting another aspect of his game that UCLA needs to be cautious of.
Jackson Shelstad | G
The Ducks’ second-highest scorer this season has been Jackson Shelstad, a player who could prove to really make things hard for the Bruins’ star Donovan Dent.
At this point of the season, Shelstad has been very solid, averaging 15.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. He has been doing this on an OK 36.9% shooting percentage. Shelstad has proven to be the Ducks’ number two threat this season, and figuring out how to stop him and Bittle will be a tall task.
With Dent looking better all-around, this matchup will be a huge decider in this one. However, that is only a third of the challenge; the Bruins will also need to figure out how to slow down Bittle and Evans Jr.
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