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NCAA Tournament first-round predictions: Will Arizona, Oregon survive upset bids?

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NCAA Tournament first-round predictions: Will Arizona, Oregon survive upset bids?


The East Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is loaded with offensive talent.

From No. 1 seed Duke to No. 13 seed Akron, the region features a host of teams who like to play fast and can put up points in bunches.

At least three of those teams — Arizona, Oregon and BYU — face tough first-round matchups. And No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s — one team that doesn’t play fast — will have its hands full with No. 10 Vanderbilt.

East Region first-round predictions: Seattle

The first-round matchups in the East are spread over four regional “pods” — Raleigh, North Carolina; Cleveland; Denver; and Seattle.

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The Seattle pod features No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Akron and No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Liberty. Akron and Liberty are both flying across the country; Arizona has a short flight from Tucson; and Oregon could drive to Seattle from Eugene.

Akron doesn’t have an impressive resume — 0-1 in Quad 1 games — but the Zips present myriad issues with their balance and shooting ability. They’ve made 369 3-pointers this season and they feature seven players who have made at least 30 triples.

Compare that with Arizona, who has made 232 3-pointers and has only three players who have drained 30 more from downtown. But the Wildcats are built around toughness and paint points, and their size should ultimately be too difficult for Akron to handle. Arizona is favored by 13.5 points, but it will be closer than that.

Prediction: No. 4 Arizona 85, No. 13 Akron 77

Oregon landed in the dreaded 5-12 matchup, which has produced more upsets than any other seed since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985 — a whopping 55 upsets. And there were two last season: No. 12 Grand Canyon beat No. 5 Saint Mary’s and No. 12 James Madison stunned No. 5 Wisconsin.

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The difference between the 12-5 and 13-6 matchup is staggering: Only 33 No. 13 seeds have upset No. 4 seeds since 1985.

Oregon has won eight of its last nine, but only one of those wins was against an NCAA Tournament team (Wisconsin). The Ducks finished No. 29 in the NCAA NET Ranking and went 8-7 in Quad 1 games, but most of those wins came over two months ago.

Liberty finished No. 60 in the NET and doesn’t have a single Quad 1 win, but the Flames have remarkable balance — and one of the best shooters in the country in senior guard Taelon Porter, who is averaging 13.9 points and shooting 46% from downtown.

Liberty has four players who score in double figures and seven who average at least 8.8 points per game. They also have length and tons of experience. Fifth-year senior guard Kaden Metheny (13.5 ppg) has been on a heater his last three games, shooting 16-of-31 from downtown to lead Liberty to the CUSA Tournament championship.

Oregon’s 7-foot sophomore Nate Bittle will be a problem for Liberty, but the Flames have enough big bodies to throw at him, and if they get hot from downtown, watch out. There’s a reason Oregon is only favored by 6.5 points. Down goes another No. 5 seed.

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Prediction: No. 12 Liberty 73, No. 5 Oregon 68

East Region first-round predictions: Raleigh

Baylor’s zone will give Mississippi State problems, and freshman VJ Edgecombe is getting better and better. The Bears are built for March.

Prediction: No. 9 Baylor 75, No. 8 Mississippi State 69

With our without Cooper Flagg, Duke will roll to victory over the play-in winner between American and Mount St. Mary’s. We’re predicting American will win, and move on to face Duke.

Prediction: No. 1 Duke 81, No. 16 American 57

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East Region first-round predictions: Cleveland

Robert Morris (26-8) is really good, but Alabama (25-8) is on a different level. The Crimson Tide should win by 20.

Prediction: No. 2 Alabama 89, No. 15 Robert Morris 69

After being upset by Grand Canyon in the first round last season, Saint Mary’s has another tough draw in 2025. The Gaels have to travel across the country to face Vanderbilt, a team that has wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M.

The Commodores have played a much tougher schedule than Saint Mary’s, and that will make the difference in this one.

Prediction: No. 10 Vanderbilt 71, No. 7 Saint Mary’s 67

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East Region first-round predictions: Denver

No. 3 Wisconsin shouldn’t have much trouble with No. 14 Montana. The Badgers are favored by 14.5 points, but they’ll win by more than 20.

Prediction: No. 3 Wisconsin 78, No. 14 Montana 56

In the final first-round game in the East Region, BYU has to face a VCU team that is much better than its No. 11 seed. The Rams finished No. 31 in NET — just six spots behind BYU.

BYU has been playing incredible basketball the past five weeks, but Houston smothered them in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals and VCU will do the same on Thursday.

Prediction: No. 11 VCU 77, No. 6 BYU 72

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NCAA Tournament East Region

NCAA Tournament East Region / NCAA

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Oregon’s Dan Lanning non-committal on injured players for Minnesota game

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Oregon’s Dan Lanning non-committal on injured players for Minnesota game


EUGENE — Whether any of Oregon’s several injured players will return for Friday’s game with Minnesota is unclear.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning was optimistic about the outlooks for receiver Dakorien Moore, tight end Kenyon Sadiq, right tackle Alex Harkey and inside linebacker Devon Jackson following last week’s win at Iowa and didn’t have an update on receiver Gary Bryant Jr.’s apparent foot injury at the time.

Lanning was less forthcoming when asked for an update on those players Monday night.

“If they’re ready,” Lanning said, “they’ll play.”

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UO’s leading receiver, Moore suffered a non-contact knee injury during practice last week.

Sadiq has been dealing with an unspecified injury dating back to before the Indiana game. Harkey rolled his ankle last week and Jackson was dealing with a similar issue, Lanning said. Each of those three traveled to Iowa, were listed as questionable, were in full pads but did not play.

With only four scholarship receivers available following Bryant’s injury, Oregon used a greater share of players with two running backs and two tight ends. That has already been a greater part of the offense this season, especially multiple backs, but became a greater necessity when the receiving corps was further depleted.

That could be the case again against Minnesota.

“I think we’ve probably had more (two backs) personnel sets than any other team in the conference this year and that goes back to trying to utilize the personnel that we have,” Lanning said. “I feel really confident about our guys in (two back sets) and really like our guys in (one back sets) too. … We’ll continue to be creative. I’m sure we’ll see some stuff out there that’s different.”

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Gernorris Wilson made his first career start in place of Harkey. He committed a false start penalty, but was part of a group that paved the way for 261 rushing yards without allowing a sack.

Lanning felt Wilson played a “complete game” and had areas to improve.

“To be able to keep our quarterback clean in the game was good,” Lanning said. “We obviously didn’t throw it as much, but I thought Gernorris did a good job.”

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Oregon is a Paper Tiger? Not Hardly

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Oregon is a Paper Tiger? Not Hardly


A lot of conclusions could be drawn from Oregon’s big win over Iowa on Saturday. Calling them a “paper tiger” is not one of them.

There is a bizarre opinion among some members of the national media and opposing fanbases that the Ducks haven’t played anyone. Apparently, September 27th was so long ago that it has completely left their memories.

Oregon has faced three ranked opponents so far this season. They have come away with two wins and a close loss to the #2 ranked Indiana Hoosiers at Autzen. They have faced injuries, torrential downpours, and nationally recognized hostile crowds… but I guess that’s not enough.

Oregon is a Paper Tiger?

Sep 6, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Gary Bryant Jr. (2) reacts after picking up a first down during the first half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

They are if you believe Will Brackus of CBS Sports. He wrote, “Oregon will be exposed when it has to match up against one of the 12 best teams in the nation.” This is an interesting opinion. Was Oregon “exposed” against Indiana?

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Offensively the Ducks certainly struggled in that game. Defensively they held the Hoosiers to 111 rushing yards and 215 passing yards. This is a team that’s currently averaging 232 yards on the ground and 255 yards for the air. They are 6th in the nation with 487 total yards of offense per game. Exposed?

Brackus continued, “The Ducks don’t have the best résumé thus far. Their admittedly gritty win on the road against No. 20 Iowa Saturday was their first triumph against a ranked team all season.”

I guess in an alternate universe the Ducks faced the #3 ranked Nittany Lions in a white-out at Beaver Stadium. They pulled off a massive win, in overtime, over a top 5 team on the road. They did it in an environment that everyone said was arguably the toughest in college football. That means nothing now, apparently.

His final statement was, “Oregon has done nothing to show that it will compete well on a national stage.”

This Team has Shown Nothing?

Oregon players celebrate after winning the game. The University of Oregon Ducks football team defeated the Penn State Nittany Lions 30-24 at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pa., on Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025. Credit: Max Unkrich / maxunkrichphoto.com

We could debate if you think the Ducks haven’t shown enough to prove they’re a true contender this season. To think that they have done nothing to show that they would compete well on a national stage is ludicrous.  

Right now the Ducks are the 13th best offense, averaging 471 yards per game. Their passing has fallen off a bit because of weather and injuries to key positions. Their run game, however, is 6th in the nation averaging 240 yards per game.

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Against the Iowa Hawkeyes, they put up 261 yards on the ground, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. This was the most total yardage that Iowa has given up since 2022. More impressively, it was the most yards per carry since 2014.

The Hawkeyes entered the game as the 3rd best defense in the nation in total yards allowed per game. They were 5th in passing yards allowed and 4th in total yards allowed. They had the 10th best run defense as well. This team was no pushover and it was on the road in the rain.

The Ducks are a physical, run first offense right now. They’re grinding out opponents and imposing their will in the trenches. This is not the Oregon Ducks of 15 years ago. The rest of college football has not woken up to that fact yet.

The Ducks have an Elite Defense

Oregon Defense
Oregon defensive back Dillon Thieneman, right, grabs the game-winning interception as Oregon inside linebacker Jerry Mixon celebrates as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.

Even if you’re not ready to concede that Oregon has a solid offense, their defense is truly elite.

The Ducks are currently ranked 3rd in overall yards per game. They are #1 in passing defense, allowing only 126 yards through the air. Oregon is also 6th in points allowed per game at 14. They absolutely have a defense that could win a national championship right now.

PFF grades them as the 15th best defense but gives them the 4th best coverage grade in the nation (92.1). They are just barely behind Ohio State (92.2) and Alabama (92.3) on the season. The Ducks have been a no-fly zone for most of the season. They had a couple lapses against Iowa but overall teams have had a very difficult time throwing the ball.

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This is not going to be an easy out for any team… regardless of their ranking.

AP Voters Still Doubt Them

Oregon Coaching
© Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite beating one of the best defenses in the country, Oregon fell in the AP poll on Sunday. It was clearly much more impressive that Ole Miss defeated The Citadel Bulldogs 49-0 at home. Those late season FCS opponents are always a good litmus test for how legitimate a team is in the rankings.

Oregon dropped to 7th in the AP, but at this juncture this ranking is completely irrelevant. The only ranking that matters are the playoff rankings and we won’t know those for a couple days. Funny enough, the coaches poll kept the Ducks at 6th.

With #7 BYU losing to #8 Texas Tech, and Oregon defeating the #20 ranked Hawkeyes, it’s likely that the Ducks will move up into the top 8. This is a good spot, as it would secure Oregon a home playoff game as long as they win out.

One thing to keep an eye on is USC for the rest of the season. The Ducks play the Trojans at home in a couple weeks whicch will most likely will be the final ranked team on their schedule. Washington dropped to Wisconsin at home on Saturday and will assuredly fall out of the rankings.



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Oregon’s Dan Lanning Admits He Was ‘Pretty Nervous’ Watching Game-Winning Kick

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Oregon’s Dan Lanning Admits He Was ‘Pretty Nervous’ Watching Game-Winning Kick


Thanks to some special teams heroics, No. 9 Oregon slid past No. 20 Iowa, 18-16, on Saturday — a finish that left Ducks head coach Dan Lanning anything but calm.

Lanning admitted as much after watching kicker Atticus Sappington drill a 39-yard field goal in the rain with seven seconds left to seal the win. Truth be told, the redshirt senior’s composure in the clutch may have exceeded that of his head coach.

“If you want the truth, I was pretty nervous,” Lanning told reporters. “I’m nervous for him because it shouldn’t come down to that moment for Atticus. That guy’s going to feel an unbelievable amount of pressure, however that goes. But, I’m really proud that he’s able to handle a moment like that.”

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By now, it’s no secret that it takes a special kind of focus for kickers to lock in and deliver under pressure. Recreating those moments in practice is one thing, but as Lanning put it, “there ain’t nothing like 70,000 fans.”

“Seven seconds left, having to kick that kick. Can’t recreate that in practice, and Atticus handled that like a champ,” added Lanning.

The nail-biting kick capped a game in which Oregon jumped out to a 2–0 lead on a wild safety, then trailed 16–15 after an Iowa touchdown with 1:51 left in regulation. A 24-yard Dante Moore completion boosted the ensuing 10-play, 54-yard series which Sappington closed with the game winner on the road.

After narrowly improving to 8–1 overall and 5–1 in Big Ten play, Lanning’s Ducks have held their own in their second year in the conference. Still, it’s clear the experience is taking some getting used to.

“Well, guys, I guess that’s what they call Big Ten football,” Lanning said to open his postgame press conference. “What an unbelievable game.”

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Oregon now turns its attention to its next Big Ten showdown — a road game at Minnesota (6–3, 4–2). Kickoff is set for Friday, Nov. 14, at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.

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