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College football bowl projections: Oregon-Michigan Rose Bowl in CFP semis

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College football bowl projections: Oregon-Michigan Rose Bowl in CFP semis


Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter | Jayna Bardahl and The Athletic’s college football staff deliver expert analysis on the biggest CFB stories five days per week. Get it sent to your inbox.


Could a one-loss Oregon jump an undefeated Florida State in the College Football Playoff pairings? That’s what we’re projecting in our latest bowl predictions.

With FSU quarterback Jordan Travis losing his season to a gruesome injury Saturday, the Ducks have a shot at leapfrogging the Seminoles come Selection Sunday. As for the other two spots, there’s no change with Georgia No. 1 and Michigan No. 2.

One interesting anecdote involves the Orange Bowl. It will select the highest-ranked non-champion from the Big Ten and SEC. Right now, that’s the Michigan-Ohio State loser. What’s unfortunate is it prevents a potential Ohio State-Alabama game. Also, the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion will play in either the Peach or Fiesta bowl.

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One mid-tier game to watch: Wisconsin versus Auburn in the Music City Bowl.

One note: If the Big Ten competes in the Orange Bowl, then it forfeits its ReliaQuest Bowl spot to the ACC/Notre Dame.

With the lack of 6-6 qualifiers, it means both James Madison and Jacksonville State earn a bowl bid despite their transitional year from the FCS ranks. There is one projected 5-7 team to make it based on the highest APR score: Mississippi State.

Friendly reminder: Most bowls do not have to choose in order of conference standings. When you see Rutgers listed as “Big Ten No. 5,” it does not mean that we think the Scarlet Knights are the Big Ten’s fifth-place team, but rather that the Pinstripe Bowl uses its No. 5 pick to select them.

Another note: If ESPN is listed after a team, that means ESPN Events has the selection for that bowl game. ESPN Events owns and operates 18 bowls and picks from a pool of mostly Group of 5 teams.

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The fine print:

*Replacement for a conference without enough eligible teams
**Projected 5-7 team

New Year’s Six

Bowl Date Teams Location Time

Cotton

Dec. 29

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Texas (Big 12) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Arlington, Texas

8 p.m.

Peach

Dec. 30

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Missouri (at-large) vs. SMU (at-large)

Atlanta

Noon

Orange

Dec. 30

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Louisville (ACC) vs. Ohio State (SEC/B1G/ND)

Miami

4 p.m.

Fiesta

Jan. 1

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Washington (at-large) vs. Alabama (at-large)

Glendale, Ariz.

1 p.m.

Rose

Jan. 1

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No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oregon

Pasadena, Calif.

5 p.m.

Sugar

Jan. 1

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No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Florida State

New Orleans

8:45 p.m.

Remaining Bowls

Bowl Date Team Team

Independence

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Dec. 16

Iowa State (Big 12 No. 7)

Texas State* (Pac-12 7)

LA Bowl

Dec. 16

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UCLA (Pac-12 6)

UNLV (MWC 1)

New Mexico

Dec. 16

Wyoming (MWC)

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New Mexico State (ESPN)

Cure

Dec. 16

USF (ESPN)

Coastal Carolina (ESPN)

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New Orleans

Dec. 16

Louisiana (Sun Belt)

Jacksonville St. (C-USA)

Myrtle Beach

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Dec. 16

James Madison (ESPN)

Ohio (ESPN)

Famous Toastery

Dec. 18

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Applachian State (ESPN)

Western Kentucky (ESPN)

Frisco

Dec. 19

Arkansas State (ESPN)

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Colorado State (ESPN)

Boca Raton

Dec. 21

Troy (ESPN)

Toledo (ESPN)

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Gasparilla

Dec. 22

UCF (ESPN)

Georgia Tech (ACC/SEC)

Hawaii

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Dec. 23

Boise State (MWC)

Rice (AAC)

Vegas

Dec. 23

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Utah (Pac-12 3)

Maryland (Big Ten 3)

68 Ventures

Dec. 23

South Alabama (Sun Belt)

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NIU (MAC)

Idaho Potato

Dec. 23

Utah State (MWC)

Georgia Southern (ESPN)

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Armed Forces

Dec. 23

Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 8)

Air Force (ESPN)

Birmingham

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Dec. 23

Tulane (ESPN)

Liberty* (SEC 9)

Camellia

Dec. 23

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Bowling Green (ESPN)

Old Dominion (ESPN)

Guaranteed Rate

Dec. 26

Northwestern (Big Ten 6)

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Kansas (Big 12 6)

First Responder

Dec. 26

San Jose State (ESPN)

Georgia State (ESPN)

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Quick Lane

Dec. 26

Illinois (Big Ten 7)

Eastern Michigan (MAC)

Texas

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Dec. 27

Oklahoma State (Big 12 4)

Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)

Holiday

Dec. 27

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Clemson (ACC 3-5)

Oregon State (Pac-12 4)

Duke’s Mayo

Dec. 27

Kentucky (SEC 3-8)

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Duke (ACC 6-8)

Military

Dec. 27

UTSA (AAC)

Virginia Tech (ACC 9)

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Alamo

Dec. 28

Oklahoma (Big 12 2)

Arizona (Pac-12 2)

Pop Tarts

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Dec. 28

Kansas State (Big 12 3)

NC State (ACC 3-5)

Pinstripe

Dec. 28

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Rutgers (Big Ten 5)

Boston College (ACC 6-8)

Fenway

Dec. 28

Syracuse (ACC 10)

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Mississippi State** (AAC)

Liberty

Dec. 29

West Virginia (Big 12 5)

Memphis* (SEC 3-8)

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Sun

Dec. 29

Miami (ACC 6-8)

USC (Pac-12 5)

Gator

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Dec. 29

North Carolina (ACC 3-5)

Tennessee (SEC 3-8)

Arizona

Dec. 30

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Fresno State (MWC)

Miami of Ohio (MAC)

Music City

Dec. 30

Wisconsin (Big Ten 4)

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Auburn (SEC 3-8)

Citrus

Jan. 1

Iowa (Big Ten No. 2)

Ole Miss (SEC No. 2)

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ReliaQuest

Jan. 1

Notre Dame (ACC No. 2)

LSU (SEC 3-8)

(Photo: Ric Tapia / Getty Images)

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Oregon

David Pollack reveals pick, score prediction for Oregon-Penn State showdown

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David Pollack reveals pick, score prediction for Oregon-Penn State showdown


Ahead of a massive Week 5 showdown between two of the Big Ten’s primary contenders, Oregon visiting Penn State, college football analyst David Pollack broke down the game and explained which side he’s giving the edge to on Saturday evening.

An episode of Pollack’s podcast, See Ball Get Ball, dropped on Wednesday and featured the former All-American’s picks for the top games of the week, which he paired with some in-depth commentary behind why he’s selected the teams and final scores that he has. For the big one, Oregon at Penn State, he explained why the Nittany Lions could have a few aces hiding up their sleeve.

“Penn State ain’t hasn’t had show nothing yet, and they haven’t showed nothing yet,” Pollack said of PSU’s soft open to their 2025 schedule. “Listen, (Andy) Kotelnecki, with a preseason tune-up, he knows exactly who he is, he knows what he is, like, they’re going to score some points,” he added.

Penn State ran off wins against Nevada, FIU and Villanova before taking their bye week ahead of Oregon. En route to outscoring those poor souls by a 132-17 total score, Pollack’s right, Penn State didn’t have to dive deep into their bag. He referenced Georgia’s performance vs. Tennessee from a couple weeks ago, noting that the Nittany Lions have an established ground game to pair with whatever new tricks are introduced in the passing game.

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“The run game beat up Oregon a year ago,” Pollack commented. “The run game can be exactly the same as it was, if not better. The receiving corps cannot be worse, and I just think, with all of that, I’m betting on Penn State and I’m betting on who they have, their experience.”

The heads of that strong ground game are senior running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, contributors since the day they stepped on campus, while quarterback Drew Allar is a veteran returning starter with NFL aspirations. That’s a lot of experience for PSU, whereas Oregon has a younger transfer leading the charge in former UCLA QB Dante Moore.

“I think Jim Knowles will have something for Dante Moore that he’s absolutely never seen before in an atmosphere that’s going to be absolutely ballistic,” Pollack emphasized. “I think Dante Moore is going to look more human than he’s looked, and because of that, they could struggle a little bit. They’re not going to get to 45 like they did a year ago in the Big Ten championship game.”

With the experience edge and having the Ducks migrate across all three time zones to touch down in a “ballistic” Beaver Stadium, Pollack sees too much evidence going in Penn State’s direction for the victory.

I got the Nittany Lions, man,” he stated. “I got 30-24 Penn State, they take care of business. All of the guys on the front who can make plays, they can get to the quarterback, they can get TFLs. They can rattle Dante Moore and I think they take care of business.”

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Why Dante Moore plans to reach out to Bo Nix before Oregon’s trip to Penn State

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Why Dante Moore plans to reach out to Bo Nix before Oregon’s trip to Penn State


EUGENE — Oregon’s current starting quarterback could reach out to one of his predecessors ahead of the biggest road game of his career.

Dante Moore visited Penn State as a recruit on Sept. 18, 2021, when the Nittany Lions hosted Auburn and then-Tigers quarterback Bo Nix for a White Out game at Beaver Stadium.

“At the time I didn’t know much of Bo as a person and of course as a player,” Moore said. “He was there throwing a lot of great passes … he was a competitor. The stadium was really loud of course.”

Nix was 21 of 37 for 185 yards and had six carries for 29 yards in a 28-20 loss to Penn State, which has extended its win streak in White Out game to six entering Saturday’s game with No. 6 Oregon.

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“It was one of those that once you play in you know why everybody talks about it and speaks so highly of it,” Nix said in an interview with The Next Round days following that game. “It was fun. It was loud and it was exactly what an away game should feel like.”

Moore was reminded of the experience of visiting Happy Valley and seeing his high school teammate, former Penn State safety Jaylen Reed, play against Nix four years ago. He plans to talk to Nix this week about what it was like to play in what is widely considered the toughest road environment in the Big Ten and one of the toughest in college football.

“The stadium was really loud,” Moore said. “Understanding how Bo, how composed he was. Of course, I hope I have the chance to talk to him and hear his thoughts. It’s going to be a great week; it’s going to be a great game. It’s going to be a hostile environment. But I’m going to reach out to Bo for sure to see what things he has to tell me.”

Moore is completing 74.7% of his passes this season for 962 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception and added 87 yards rushing. But Penn State is the best opposing defense he will have ever faced and a crowd of over 100,000 makes it even more challenging.

Penn State coach James Franklin said Oregon’s offense is operating similarly with Moore as it did last season with Dillon Gabriel, who led the Ducks past the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship game.

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“He’s a throw-first guy,” Franklin said. “Is very accurate. Can extend plays. Obviously, has a ton of play playmakers around him. … I think Dante sitting behind Gabriel was really valuable for his development.”

No. 6 Oregon (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) at No. 3 Penn State (3-0)

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 27
  • Time: 4:30 p.m. PT
  • Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
  • TV channel: NBC/Peacock
  • Watch: You can watch this game live for free with Fubo (free trial), with DirecTV (free trial) or streaming live on demand with Peacock.
  • Stream: DirecTV (free trial) or Fubo (promotional offers) or Peacock ($10.99/month) or Sling (college football season pass is just $199). Streaming broadcasts for this game will be available on these streaming services locally in Oregon and Washington, but may not be available outside of the Pacific Northwest, depending on your location.

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Ducks stay put in US LBM Coaches poll after 34-14 road win at Northwestern

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Ducks stay put in US LBM Coaches poll after 34-14 road win at Northwestern


It was quite the uneventful week in college football, at least for the top teams in the US LBM Coaches poll, including the Oregon Ducks after their 34-14 road win at Northwestern.

The top seven teams in the poll didn’t go up or down from last week. Oregon is still No. 5 in the country as they now prepare for the annual rivalry game with Oregon State at Autzen Stadium. But everyone is pointing to the next game after the Beavers, however.

Oregon goes to Penn State, which is ranked No. 2 in the poll and will likely stay at No. 2 as the Nittany Lions have a bye this week. The Big Ten dominates the poll with Ohio State on top at No. 1 after its 37-9 win over Ohio. Illinois is also in the Top 10 as the Illini are No. 9 in this week’s version of the poll.

Indiana moved up two spots at No. 17 with its 73-0 win over Indiana State.

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The biggest move came from Georgia Tech after the Yellow Jackets stunned Clemson 24-21 on a last-second field goal. As a result, the Tigers, previously ranked No. 11, dropped to 1-2 on the season and completely out of the poll.

Besides Georgia Tech, Missouri (No. 22), Vanderbilt (No. 23) and Auburn (No. 25) are newcomers to the poll.

Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.



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