Nevada

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

Published

1 year ago

November 4, 2024

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally on October 24 in Las Vegas.

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Key Facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”

Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault

Published

6 hours ago

March 4, 2026

Press Room

Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault

A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling a remote stretch of central Nevada near Tonopah, including a magnitude 4.0 quake that hit near Warm Springs Tuesday morning.

Seismologists said the activity is typical for Nevada, where clusters of earthquakes can flare up in a concentrated area. “This is a very Nevada-style earthquake sequence. We have these a lot where we just see an uptick in activity in a certain spot,” said Christie Rowe, director of the Nevada Seismological Lab.

The latest magnitude 4.0 quake struck east of Tonopah near Warm Springs. The largest earthquake in the swarm so far has measured a 4.2.

What has stood out to researchers is the fault involved. Rowe said the earthquakes are occurring along a fault stretching along the southern edge of the Monitor and Antelope ranges — and that it was previously unknown to scientists. “We didn’t know this fault was there. It’s a new fault to us — not to the Earth, obviously — but it was previously unknown,” Rowe said.

For now, the earthquakes have remained moderate. Rowe said the lab would not deploy additional temporary sensors unless activity increases to around a magnitude 5 or greater.

Seismologists said they are continuing to watch the swarm closely as Nevada works to bring the ShakeAlert early warning system to the state. The program, already active in neighboring states, can send cellphone alerts seconds before shaking arrives. “For me, it’s a really high priority. That distance to the faults gives us enough time to warn people — and that can make a big difference in reducing injuries and damage,” Rowe said.

Seismologists encouraged anyone who feels shaking to report it through the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It” system, saying even small quakes can help scientists better understand Nevada’s seismic activity.

Experts said the swarm is worth monitoring but is not cause for alarm. They noted that earthquakes like the 5.8 that hit near Yerington in December 2024 typically happen in Nevada about every eight to 10 years, and said they will continue monitoring the current activity closely.

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Nevada

Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says

Published

18 hours ago

March 3, 2026

Press Room

Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says

Nevada state court is the proper venue for reviewing whether KalshiEX LLC is improperly accepting sports wagers without a license, a federal district court said.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board showed that the state statutes under which it seeks relief don’t require interpreting federal law, Judge Miranda M. Du of the US District Court for the District of Nevada said in a Monday order. The board’s action is now remanded to the First Judicial District Court in Carson City, Nev., the order said.

The board in 2025 urged Kalshi, a financial services company, to get a gaming license, but the …

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Nevada

EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues

Published

1 day ago

March 3, 2026

Press Room

EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues

Strip gaming executives can put their best spin on the numbers, but local tourism indicators remain a major concern. Casino operators seeking to draw more people through the door still have much work to do.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board released January gaming numbers Friday. The news was underwhelming. The state gaming win was down 6.6 percent from a year earlier. The Strip took the largest hit, an 11 percent drop. But the gloomy returns were spread throughout Clark County: Downtown Las Vegas was off 5.2 percent, Laughlin suffered a 3.3 percent decline and the Boulder Strip dipped by 7 percent.

For the current fiscal year, gaming tax collections are up a paltry
2.1 percent, below budget projections.

The red flags include more than gaming numbers. Recently released figures for 2025 reveal that visitation to Las Vegas fell nearly 8 percent from 2024, which represented the lowest total since the pandemic in 2021. Traffic at Reid International Airport fell more than 10 percent in December and was down 6 percent for the year. Strip occupancy rates fell 3 percent in 2025.

To be fair, this is not just a Las Vegas problem. International travel to the United States was down
4.8 percent in January, Forbes reported, the ninth straight month of decline. Travel from Europe fell 5.2 percent, and passenger counts from Asia fell 7.5 percent. Canadian tourism cratered by 22 percent.

No doubt that President Donald Trump’s blustery rhetoric has played a role in the decline, but there’s more at work. International tourism has been largely flat since Barack Obama’s last few years in office. But domestic travel has held relatively steady although it is “starting to cool,” according to the U.S. Travel Association. Las Vegas hasn’t been helped by high-profile complaints last year about exorbitant Strip prices for parking, bottled water and other staples. Casino operators responded by offering discounts, particularly for locals, and they’ll need to continue those policies into 2026.

The tourism downturn has ramifications for the state budget, which relies primarily on sales and gaming tax revenues to support spending plans. “Nevada’s employment and economic challenges reflect deep structural factors that extend beyond cyclical economic fluctuations,” noted a recent report by economic analyst John Restrepo. “The state’s extreme concentration in tourism and gaming creates unique vulnerabilities.”

The irony is that state and local politicians have been talking for the past half century about “diversifying” the state economy. In recent years, that effort has primarily consisted of handing out millions in tax breaks and other incentives to attract businesses to the state. A dispassionate observer might ask whether that approach has brought an adequate return on investment.

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