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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts


Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Key Facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”

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Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

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Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

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Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

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What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

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Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

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Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)



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2025 Nevada Preps All-Southern Nevada girls cross country team revealed

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2025 Nevada Preps All-Southern Nevada girls cross country team revealed


First team

Gigi Benoualid, Coronado The senior finished seventh at the 5A Southern Region meet (19 minutes, 26.3 seconds) and was eighth at the 5A state meet (19:41).

Scarlett Cotrone, Faith Lutheran — The junior finished 11th at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:52.4) and was ninth at the 5A state meet (19:45) to help the Crusaders win the 5A team state title.

Ryen Hughes, Shadow Ridge — The junior finished fourth at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:12.4) and was fifth at the 5A state meet (19:16).

Aislin McMahon, Sky Pointe — The junior finished second at the 5A Southern Region meet (18:54.8) and was second at the 5A state meet (19:00).

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Brooke-Lynn Miller, Coronado — The senior won the 5A Southern Region individual title (18:40.8) and was seventh at the 5A state meet (19:19). She is committed to Cal Baptist.

Elynn Okuda, Shadow Ridge — The senior finished sixth at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:16.1) and was third at state (19:11).

Lacy Tippetts, Sky Pointe — The junior finished third at the 5A Southern Region meet (18:58.2) and was 13th at the 5A state meet (19:57).

Sophia Weisz, Faith Lutheran — The junior finished fifth at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:13.1) and was 10th at state (19:45) to help the Crusaders win the 5A team state title.

Coach of the year

Jeff Edwards, Faith Lutheran — Guided the Crusaders to the Class 5A team state title, the program’s fifth overall and first since 2001.

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Second team

Jenna Anderson, Faith Lutheran — The sophomore finished 24th at the 5A Southern Region meet (20:34.6) and was 14th at the 5A state meet (19:57) to help the Crusaders win the team title.

Lola Borsh, Desert Oasis — The freshman finished 16th at the 5A Southern Region meet (20:16.5) and was 26th at the 5A state meet (20:26).

Katherine Hodges, Sky Pointe — The junior finished 13th at the 5A Southern Region meet (20:12.8) and was 23rd at the 5A state meet (20:18).

Lacy Mayes, Centennial — The sophomore finished eighth at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:30.6) and was 19th at the 5A state meet (20:05).

Autumn McQuirter, Liberty — The sophomore finished 15th at the 5A Southern Region meet (20:15.7) and was 12th at the 5A state meet (19:54).

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Mia Musemici, Desert Oasis — The senior finished 10th at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:47.8) and was 24th at the 5A state meet (20:23).

Belle Parrel, Centennial — The freshman finished ninth at the 5A Southern Region meet (19:47.4) and was 17th at the 5A state meet (20:01).

Michelle Stana, Clark — The freshman won the 4A individual Desert League (21:19.9) and state (20:43.2) titles.

Mackenzie Teel, Sky Pointe — The senior finished 14th at the 5A Southern Region meet (20:15.5) and was 37th at the 5A state meet (20:57).

Julia Vancura, Faith Lutheran — The senior finished 12th at the 5A Southern Region meet (20:01.0) and was 21st at the 5A state meet (20:10).

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Honorable mention

Mandi Abney, Shadow Ridge

Savannah Abney, Shadow Ridge

Emma Ansorge, Basic

Maleah Bennett, Centennial

Allison Blazi, Amplus Academy

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Kensley Bleak, Lincoln County

Isabella Bustillos-Rivera, Desert Oasis

Ava Dupuis, Palo Verde

Isabelle Franks, Faith Lutheran

Leah Groppenbacher, Arbor View

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MJ Gutierrez-Hess, Green Valley

Payton Howse, Clark

Sadie Ivins, Lincoln County

Madeline Labay, Bishop Gorman

Aubrei Lay, Sky Pointe

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Selina Leipard, Clark

Ava Levy, Palo Verde

Stella Lin, Coronado

Mackenzie McClain, Sky Pointe

Adalyn Mosley, Foothill

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Yalitzi Muro, Western

Elizabeth Neumann, Silverado

Julianna Ondrisko, Pahrump Valley

Sophie Romero, Pahrump Valley

Isabelle Searer, Liberty

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Avery Stanton, Coronado

Eliott Stepanek, Faith Lutheran

Amira Turner, Centennial

Isla Ulmer, Coronado

Olivia Wheeler, Sky Pointe

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Contact Alex Wright at awright@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AlexWright1028 on X.



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Justice Dept. sues Nevada over voter rolls

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Justice Dept. sues Nevada over voter rolls


LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — The Justice Department on Friday sued Nevada and three other states, claiming they’d failed to provide requested voter roll information.

Nevada officials, however, said the federal government hasn’t answered basic questions about how the information would be kept secure and questioned why officials wanted the data.

WATCH | What to know about the lawsuit

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Justice Dept. sues Nevada over voter rolls

The 10-page lawsuit, filed in federal District Court in Nevada, says the government is seeking the information to enforce the provisions of the National Voter Registration Act, the Help America Vote Act and the Civil Rights Act.

It says the Justice Department asked the state on June 25 for information including a copy of its computerized statewide voter registration list. It said the information could be sent via encrypted email or by using the department’s secure file-sharing system.

The state immediately replied, sending a copy of the voter registration list, including names, addresses and birthdates, but not drivers license information or the last four digits of Social Security numbers.

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The department responded on Aug. 14, again asking for the full database and adding “the purpose of the request is to ascertain Nevada’s compliance with the list maintenance requirements of” federal election laws.

The state, according to the lawsuit, wrote back to say the federal government had no basis for the request and claimed it was concerned about privacy of voter data.

The lawsuit asks the court to declare Nevada’s refusal to provide the entire database unlawful, and order the state to turn it over.

In response, Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar said in a statement Friday that the state’s concerns have gone unaddressed.

“The Department of Justice is making sweeping demands of states to hand over private voter data. Despite our simple requests for information on how they’re going to keep this data secure, they’ve given us no clear answers,” Aguilar said in the statement. “It’s my duty to follow Nevada law and protect the best interests of Nevadans, which includes protecting their sensitive information and access to the ballot.

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“While these requests may seem like normal oversight, the federal government is using its power to try to intimidate states and influence how states administer elections ahead of the 2026 cycle. The Constitution makes it clear: elections are run by the states. Nevada will continue to run safe, secure and accessible elections and I’ll always stand up for the rights of our voters.”

In an interview on Friday, Nevada’s senior U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto questioned the motives of the Justice Department.

KTNV

“You’ve got to question why DOJ is asking for this information and why they’re pushing for this information,” she said. “Is it really to protect voting rights across this country, or is there some other nefarious purpose?”

Added Cortez Masto: “What I have seen is a focus on immigration, right? And their idea of purging all undocumented individuals from this country, including DREAMers, including those that are married to U.S. citizens, including those that are not violent criminals. We have seen that they are continuing down this path, and they are trying to figure out how to gather as much data as they can to use it against individuals in this country.”

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President Donald Trump has falsely asserted that he won the 2020 election, nationwide and in Nevada, where Joe Biden defeated Trump by 2.39 percentage points or 33,596 votes statewide.

Six Republican electors were later indicted for sending false Electoral College certificates to Washington, D.C., part of a nationwide plot to keep Trump in office. The case was challenged on a technical issue, but the Nevada Supreme Court upheld the charges, and a trial is expected in the new year.

An email seeking comment from the attorney general’s office — which will defend Nevada in court — was not immediately returned Friday.

Do you have a question about politics in Nevada? Ask Steve Sebelius by emailing Steve.Sebelius@ktnv.com.

Do you have questions about politics, elections or government? Email us using the Ask Steve link on our website.





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Nevada nonprofit, BCP challenging PUCN over NV Energy’s daily demand charge

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Nevada nonprofit, BCP challenging PUCN over NV Energy’s daily demand charge


LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — A Nevada nonprofit organization and the Attorney General’s Bureau of Consumer Protection are challenging the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada in court after the organization approved new NV Energy policies.

Vote Solar is a nonprofit advocacy group that focuses on state policies affecting solar and clean energy solutions.

WATCH | Darcy Spears breaks down challenge against PUCN

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Nevada nonprofit, BCP challenging PUCN over NV Energy’s daily demand charge

According to their petition for judicial review, they are questioning the PUCN’s decision to approve two separate policies:

  • A new daily demand charge for residential and small business customers in Southern Nevada
  • A new 15-minute net metering policy for rooftop solar customers in Northern Nevada

In the petition, Vote Solar officials claim the PUCN’s final decisions are:

  • In violation of constitutional or statutory provisions
  • In excess of the statutory authority of the Commission
  • Made upon unlawful procedure
  • Affected by other error of law
  • Clearly erroneous in view of the reliable, probative and substantial evidence on the record
  • Arbitrary or capricious or characterized by abuse of discretion

“The PUCN’s decision is a major step backward for Nevada’s clean energy future,” said Chauntille Roberts, Regional Director at Vote Solar. “Nevada deserves energy policies that protect consumers, expand access to solar, and move our state forward—not backward.”

The Attorney General Office’s Bureau of Consumer Protection has filed a separate petition for judicial review.

“The demand charge rate structure (if permitted to be implemented), the 15-minute NEM netting methodology, and the approved affiliate charges result in rates that are unjust, unreasonable, and unlawful in contravention of NRS 704.040, and undermine the Commission’s fundamental duty under NRS 704.001 to provide utility ratepayers with just and reasonable rates,” the filing states in part.

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The filing also states commissioners approved $2.7 million worth of affiliate charges that ratepayers would cover.

“The Commission’s decision concerning affiliate charges is belied by the record as the evidence in this docket demonstrates that NPC failed to provide any evidence, let alone substantial evidence, sufficient to support the recovery of an aggregate of $2.7 million,” the filing states. “Not only is the $2.7 million in affiliate charges unsupported by actual charges, it is also unreasonable and an unsupported monetary number, resulting in the Commission’s decision being arbitrary and capricious.”

No future court hearings have been scheduled for that case, as of Friday morning.

Channel 13 has reached out to NV Energy and the PUCN to see if they would like to comment on the petition.

NV Energy sent the following statement to us.

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“NV Energy believes the changes that were approved and reaffirmed by the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada are consistent with state law, and we will be following this filing closely.

The demand charge more accurately captures the cost of energy delivery. It also helps to fix inequities between rooftop solar and non-rooftop solar customers. Because of the current billing structure, rooftop solar customers pay less than non-rooftop solar customers for the cost of service, shifting costs to non-rooftop solar customers.

Between 2018 and 2024, the total cost shift born by non-rooftop solar customers in Southern Nevada is $424 million. The total subsidy in Southern Nevada in 2025 is expected to grow by an additional $80 million, based on expected growth for the rest of the year.

The recently approved demand charge helps fix the inequities caused by the current system, and helps ensure that customer bills more accurately reflect the cost it takes to provide them with service.”

NV Energy Spokesperson

As of the time this article was published, we have not heard back from the PUCN.

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In September, the PUCN approved the new rate model, which has sparked controversy among many Southern Nevadans who claim this will make their energy bills continue to go up.

“It’s painful. I just wanted to express concern as a private citizen that corporate America is going to do what it’s going to do to maintain profits and dividends,” Las Vegas local Joel Tauber told us in October.

“Why can a monopoly, a utility monopoly, dictate how I live in my residence,” retiree Jody Rodarmal told us in September. “If you believe there’s not going to be any increase, then why go to a new style of billing?”

SEPTEMBER 2025: NV Energy’s new billing structure sparks concern among Las Vegas residents

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NV Energy’s new billing structure sparks concern among Las Vegas residents

How would the daily demand charge work?

According to NV Energy, the daily demand charge will be calculated by taking the highest amount of energy used in a 15-minute period each day and multiplying it by the current kilowatt-per-hour rate.

That charge will then be added to your bill. For the average customer, NV Energy estimates this will amount to roughly $20 per month.

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WATCH: Ryan Ketcham explains NV Energy’s new daily demand charge

NV Energy is adding a ‘daily demand charge’ to power bills. What does that mean for consumers?

In past statements to Channel 13, NV Energy officials have stressed the rate increase requests are intended to recoup the costs of projects it undertakes to shore up the power grid.

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However, there have been questions about that over the last year after scandals involving overcharging customers and trying to pass on the costs of things like luxury hotels, travel, and liquor to ratepayers, including a $1.2 million tab at Red Rock Resort.

According to NV Energy, Nevada customers already pay a lower average rate than the rest of the country. Through June 2025, the company says its rates were 22% lower than the U.S. average and 60% lower than in California.

Do you have a concern or question about something happening in the valley? Email Darcy.Spears@ktnv.com.





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