Nevada
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.
Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally on October 24 in Las Vegas.
Key Facts
Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”
Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).
Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).
Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).
Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.
Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.
Surprising Fact
A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.
Tangent
The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.
What To Watch For
The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.
Big Number
56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Key Background
Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.
Tangent
The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.
Further Reading
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)
Nevada
Centennial vs. Liberty: Watch Nevada girls high school basketball showdown live
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The defending 5A state champion Centennial Bulldogs (7-3) open conference play with a challenging road test Wednesday night when they travel to Henderson to face the Liberty Patriots (10-7) in a Nevada 5A Southern basketball clash.
Coach Karen Weitz’s Bulldogs, seeking their second consecutive state title, will rely on their formidable frontcourt duo of forwards Nation Williams and Inieye Oruh, complemented by standout guard Sanai Branch. They will face a Patriots squad that has shown marked improvement under head coach Lorenzo Jarvis, powered by senior leaders Samantha Chesnut and Kiana Harworth alongside junior standout Neviah Nick.
With Liberty’s home court advantage potentially neutralizing Centennial’s championship pedigree, this early conference matchup could set the tone for both teams’ title aspirations in the competitive 5A Southern division.
Opening tipoff is set for 6:30 p.m. PT on Wednesday, January 7 with a live TV broadcast on NFHS Network.
• WATCH: Centennial vs. Liberty basketball is livestreaming on NFHS Network
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How to watch Centennial vs. Liberty basketball livestream
What: Defending champ Centennial faces resurgent Liberty in 5A Southern showdown
When: Tipoff is set for 6:30 p.m. PT on Wednesday, January 7
Where: Liberty High School | Henderson, Nevada
Watch live: Watch Centennial vs. Liberty live on the NFHS Network
Nevada
Tahoe man loses $20K at Nevada casino and threatens to bomb facility before arrest, police say
Nevada
2025 worst year for home sales in Southern Nevada since 2007, report says
Home prices in Southern Nevada dropped from record highs to end 2025 and less homes sold last year compared with 2024.
Approximately 28,498 existing homes sold in the region last year, which is down almost 9 percent from the 31,305 homes that sold in 2024, according to trade association Las Vegas Realtors, which pulls its data from the Multiple Listing Service. This is the lowest number of homes sold in a year in Southern Nevada since 2007 right before the Great Recession.
The median sale price for a house sold in Southern Nevada in December was approximately $470,000, a 3.9 percent drop from November, according to LVR. By the end of December, LVR reported 6,396 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 28.8 percent from one year earlier.
Despite a down year in sales, the local market did end on a high note.
George Kypreos, president of Las Vegas Realtors, said he is optimistic the housing market could turn around this year. The LVR report noted that home sales in Southern Nevada have seen “peaks and valleys” in recent years, generally declining since 2021 when a record 50,010 properties sold.
“Although it was a relatively slow year for home sales, we’re seeing some encouraging signs heading into the new year,” said Kypreos in a statement. “Buyer activity locally and nationally is starting to improve. Home prices have been fairly stable, and mortgage interest rates ended the year lower than they were the previous year. Most trends are pointing to a more balanced housing market in 2026.”
Freddie Mac currently has the average price for a 30-year fixed-term mortgage rate at 6.1 percent. That mortgage rate has not gone below 6 percent since 2022.
The all-time high median home sale price in Southern Nevada was broken multiple times last year, and currently sits at $488,995 which was last set in November while the condo and townhome market has dropped substantially from an all-time high that was set in October of 2024 ($315,000) to $275,000 to end 2025.
Major residential real estate brokerages are mixed as to where the market will head this year as Zillow, Redfin and Realtor.com have all put out their 2026 projections, and they expect a similar market to 2025. Mortgage rates aren’t expected to drop enough next year to unlock the country’s housing market, new builds will continue to lag, and prices will remain relatively elevated.
Realtor.com said in its report that it predicts a “steadier” housing market next year and a slight shift to a more balanced market. Redfin’s report says 2026 will be the year of the “great housing reset,” which means the start of a yearslong period of “gradual increases in home sales and normalization of prices as affordability gradually improves.”
Finally, Zillow said the housing market should “warm up” in 2026 with “buyers seeing a bit more breathing room and sellers benefiting from price stability and more consistent demand.”
Contact Patrick Blennerhassett at pblennerhassett@reviewjournal.com.
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