Nevada
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.
Key Facts
Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”
Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).
Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).
Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).
Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.
Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.
Surprising Fact
A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.
Tangent
The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.
What To Watch For
The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.
Big Number
56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Key Background
Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.
Tangent
The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.
Further Reading
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)
Nevada
‘Tremendous contributions:’ Southern Nevada’s top health official is retiring
Dr. Fermin Leguen’s family had expected him to become physician since he was a child growing up in Cuba.
He initially thought that he might study aviation technology. He wanted travel the world.
“Honestly, medicine wasn’t one of my top things to do,” he said in a recent interview. “But at the same time — like every other kid — you really have no idea about what any career is about.”
Leguen, 71, eventually made a choice he said he’s never regretted.
“Finally, I decided to go with medicine,” Leguen said.
Southern Nevada’s Health District top official is retiring at the beginning of March, marking an end to a decades-long career that dispatched him across the globe to serve in public health.
“I have never (spent) a long period of time doing nothing, so I don’t know what to expect,” he said about his upcoming retirement.
Leguen — who became the face of the valley’s COVID-19 response as acting chief health officer— said he will miss his team and their dedication.
He will simply miss “just being here.”
Leguen said he believes the Health District will remain in good hands, supported with a “very strong team.”
“We have very professional people here with a lot of skills, highly trained,” he said. “Regardless of who’s leading the organization, the biggest strength we have is the people we have here. And they are fully capable of responding to multiple public-health threats that we could face.”
The Health District board appointed Dr. Cassius Lockett — deputy district health officer — to succeed Leguen.
‘Tremendous contributions’
Leguen, who speaks softly and has a shy demeanor, was honored at Las Vegas City Hall earlier this month.
Shortly after the room cleared from the festivities that welcomed new Mayor Shelley Berkley and Councilwoman Shondra Summers-Armstrong, Councilwoman Olivia Diaz took the microphone to issue a proclamation honoring Leguen for his “tremendous contributions.”
“Dr. Leguen, gracias,” Diaz said. “I just want to say ‘thank you’ for everything that you have done.”
Leguen joined the health district in 2016 as director of clinical services. In October 2019 — a few months before the global pandemic broke out, he was named acting chief health officer.
“Little did we know when we selected him… what we were going to be reeling and dealing with as the world and as a community,” Diaz said. “I don’t think this man would get a shut eye.”
As the health district searched for a permanent agency head, “the board leadership just decided Dr. Leguen has already proven himself as the right leader for this agency.”
Leguen was officially promoted in early 2021.
During his tenure, he spearheaded the opening of two community health hubs that offer immunizations and primary health services for patients with no health insurance, Diaz noted.
He said he’s proud of his administration’s program that helps address a congenital syphilis crisis that’s “devastating” children.
During the pandemic, Leguen led the rollout of a bilingual education campaign for Spanish speakers at a time when Latinos accounted for 25 percent of COVID-19 deaths, Diaz said.
When Clark County commissioners faced backlash in the fall of 2021 over a resolution declaring vaccine misinformation a source of increased demand for unsafe treatments, Leguen supported the motion.
“While it is essential for public agencies to provide a forum for people to comment and give input on issues that impact them, it is critical that information impacting the health and safety of the public be based on proven science and accurate data,” he said at the time.
“He’s made it a priority for the Southern Nevada Health District to reflect the community it serves,” Diaz said. “And to forge partnerships with diverse community organizations in order to better reach and serve underserved residents.”
Diaz said Leguen headed the region’s response to other public health emergencies, such as the opioid epidemic and the West Nile virus.
“I wish COVID was the only one,” Diaz said.
A life of service
Leguen was born in Guantanamo, Cuba. His parents moved the family to the capital city of Havana when he was a toddler.
He studied medicine at the University of Havana.
Leguen worked for Cuba’s social services. He fled the communist country in 1991, eventually migrating to the U.S. where he began a residency in Puerto Rico before completing a pediatric residency at Johns Hopkins Hospital.
Throughout his career, he was a vaccination consultant in Africa, Caribbean countries and South America.
He credits vaccinations for saving lives during the pandemic.
“When you’re seeing the number of deaths increasing day by day and there is nothing telling you that this is going to get better, it’s very, very depressing,” he said.
While nobody can fully prepare for a future pandemic, Leguen said that the agency has learned lessons to hamper the impact. Community in Southern Nevada collaboration was crucial, he added.
“We must be ready to learn every single day,” he said. “Nobody has the 100 percent answer for anything. We must be willing to communicate with our peers and the public our concerns, our limitations. And also make sure our community is aware of the multiple threats that could be there.”
Leguen, who has a wife and a daughter, said he’s looking forward to having more time to read fiction and watch Korean movies.
Asked to reflect about being an immigrant of color in the U.S. with a life of service under his sleeve, Leguen spoke generally about living out a dream.
“What I would say to anybody is that you have to follow your dreams,” he said. “You must be consistent with your beliefs. You must be able to sacrifice yourselves and be confident.”
Contact Ricardo Torres-Cortez at rtorres@reviewjournal.com.
Nevada
Chabad of Southern Nevada to host Grand Menorah lighting in Downtown Las Vegas
LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — On Thursday, the Chabad of Southern Nevada will host the Grand Menorah lighting at Fremont Street at The Fremont Street Experience at 4 p.m.
Mayor-elect Shelly Berkley and other local officials will be in attendance.
There will be music, latkes and free dreidels for the kids.
The 20-foot menorah is erected and maintained throughout Chanukah from Dec. 25 and culminates on Jan 2.
For more information, you can click here.
Nevada
Driver’s close call near Emerald Bay highlights danger on icy Sierra Nevada roads
TRUCKEE — With another weather system just about done with Northern California, roads in the Northern California high country are open but still potentially treacherous on Christmas Day.
As of noon, there are no restrictions on both Interstate 80 and Highway 50 in the Sierra Nevada.
The same can’t be said for the smaller highways, however.
On Highway 89, Caltrans says chains or snow tires are required from Truckee to the Sierra/Plumas County line, and from Truckee to around 11 miles north of Truckee.
Highlighting how dangerous the conditions could be, on Christmas morning California Highway Patrol posted about a driver who nearly went completely off the side of the road near Emerald Bay. The vehicle had to be towed out.
Further south, along Highway 88, Caltrans says chains are also still required on all vehicles from 6.5 miles east of Peddler Hill in Amador County to about 5 miles west of Picketts Junction in Alpine County.
Another impactful weather system is expected to arrive by Thursday in Northern California
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