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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts


Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Key Facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”

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Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

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Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

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Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

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What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

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Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

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Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)



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Nevada Assembly passes SNAP backup fund bill, heads to governor’s desk

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Nevada Assembly passes SNAP backup fund bill, heads to governor’s desk


Senate Bill 3 (SB3), aimed at establishing the Silver State General Assistance Program, has been unanimously passed by the Nevada Assembly Floor.

This measure, which previously cleared the Nevada Senate, is designed to establish a backup fund for SNAP in the event of future government shutdowns.

Andrew Clarke, Revenue Coalition Manager for New Day Nevada, praised the Assembly’s decision, stating, “Thank you to the Nevada Assembly for choosing to invest in the best return on investment there is: feeding families.” Clarke emphasized the program as a response to federal cuts, noting, “Every dollar spent on food assistance for children returns $62 over the course of their lives.”

MORE ON NEWS 3 | Nevada lawmakers reconsider $40M Windsor Park rebuild bill amid proposed amendments

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Shelbie Swartz, Executive Director of Battle Born Progress, also expressed gratitude, saying, “Thank you to the Nevada Assembly for passing Senate Bill 3, and thank you to Senate Majority Leader Cannizzaro for bringing this critical measure forward.” Swartz highlighted the importance of the program in addressing food insecurity and criticized the federal government’s approach, stating, “We find ourselves living under a federal government that seeks to punish the most marginalized in our state.”

Nalani Page, a member of AFSCME Local 4041, remarked on the bipartisan nature of the bill, saying, “SB3 is what special legislative sessions should be about: creating bipartisan solutions to address the needs of Nevadans.” Page emphasized the program’s potential to offer hope to vulnerable communities.

André Wade of Silver State Equality commended the Assembly’s actions, stating, “Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.” Wade noted the importance of prioritizing the well-being of Nevadans over politics, asserting that SB3 achieves this by creating a general assistance program.

The bill now awaits the governor’s approval to become law.



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Sloan Canyon crushes SLAM! Nevada to claim 4A region title — PHOTOS

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Sloan Canyon crushes SLAM! Nevada to claim 4A region title — PHOTOS


After a showstopping offensive performance Friday night, Sloan Canyon will take to Nevada’s biggest stage for the chance to complete a perfect season.

The top-seeded Pirates plundered visiting SLAM! Nevada 47-10 to claim the 4A Southern Region championship. Sloan Canyon will face Reno’s McQueen High on Nov. 25 at Allegiant Stadium for the state title.

“This is such a great feeling for us and the boys,” said Pirates quarterback Cade Hoshino, draped in a variety of Hawaiian leis. “We found a brotherhood this season and I couldn’t be happier for these guys tonight.”

Hoshino conducted the Pirates offense with precision, finishing 14-for-27 passing for 219 yards and three touchdowns. Christian Rhodes was his favorite target, hauling in five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown.

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Sloan Canyon (12-0) moved the ball well on the ground too, as running back Jermaine Wilson Jr. gained 165 yards on 21 carries, scoring twice.

After the win, Pirates coach Nate Oishi was happy but grounded, emphasizing Monday’s practice more than the state championship matchup.

“They took it one play at a time and they didn’t look up at the scoreboard until the game was over,” Oishi said. “They’ve been doing that all season long — one play at a time, one practice at a time, one game at a time. I’m proud of them.”

Sloan Canyon took control from the opening drive, when defensive back Jerome Johnson picked off Bulls QB Mark Schramm. That interception led to a 5-yard touchdown run from Kalepo Mose.

Early in the second quarter, No. 6 seed SLAM! Nevada (8-5) got on the board when kicker Grant Ploetz connected from 27 yards out. From then on, it was pretty much all Pirates.

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Mose scored once more for Sloan Canyon before halftime, on a 1-yard run, to give the Pirates a 14-3 lead.

Hoshino threw his first touchdown pass of the night early in the third quarter, finding Rhodes in the back right corner of the end zone on a rainbow-arc 35-yard pass. On Sloan Canyon’s next drive, Hoshino got the Pirates inside the Bulls’ 10 with a 42-yard pass to Justice Hutchins. Wilson finished the drive with an 8-yard scoring run, making it 28-3.

SLAM! Nevada scored once more, on a third-quarter touchdown pass from Schramm to Malakai Boykin to cut the deficit to 28-10.

Schramm went 9-for-21 on the night, with 79 passing yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions. Running back Anthony Edwards Jr. moved the ball well for the Bulls, finishing with 67 rushing yards on 12 carries.

The Pirates scored two more touchdowns in the third quarter: a 7-yard Wilson run and a 2-yard touchdown pass from Hoshino to Brandon Quaglio.

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Sloan Canyon put the game away for good on another Hoshino-to-Quaglio TD early in the fourth quarter.



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Lawmakers debate proposed film studio bill: ‘For every dollar, we’d lose 77 cents’

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Lawmakers debate proposed film studio bill: ‘For every dollar, we’d lose 77 cents’


The proposed Summerlin movie studio bill now under consideration by lawmakers in a special legislative session could force the state to cut expenses or increase revenue to accommodate the bill’s massive expansion of transferable tax credits. Assembly Bill 5, the resurrected Assembly Bill 238 from the 2025 Legislative Session earlier this year, proposes expanding Nevada’s […]



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