In a state like Nevada, where the margins are extremely close between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the erosion of young Latino men could impact the election for Democrats.

• Economic concerns, including inflation and job security, are driving some of these voters towards Trump, who they believe will better manage the economy.
• This trend of declining Latino support for Democrats has been building since 2016, highlighting a potential vulnerability for Democrats in Nevada and nationally.

NORTH LAS VEGAS, Nev. ― It was a waiting game for Juan Garcia. Sitting in his station at North Town Barbershop, a business his family has owned for six years, the 22-year-old was hoping his late client would still stop in.

No music was playing as two other barbers sat on a red modular couch in the middle of the shop, using a gumball machine as a stand for their Nintendo Switch to play Mario Kart. It’s a “mid” day, Garcia said, as he’s noticed a slowdown in business this week.

The barbershop is nestled in a community where switching between Spanish and English is the default: “Servicios de DMV.” Notary services and money transfers to Mexico and Central America were advertised on the door of the business next to the barbero. A small restaurant selling tamales and tacos, another that sold BBQ and one more that sold cheesecake was in the next building over. And down the street is a popular flea market in the area, Broadacres Marketplace.

Garcia has worked at the barbershop for about three years. It wasn’t his dream job, but it was all he felt he could turn to after injuring his meniscus as a soccer player. It pays the bills, but not enough to move out of his parent’s house and into his own place.

“It’s a hard decision because like all the economy and all that, I feel like that has a lot to play with,” he said. “I feel like that’s something we all need to look at, like for a better future for us.”

That’s his top concern as he’s still looking into who he will vote for in the election in November. But Republican Donald Trump is the candidate he’s considering.

Garcia is part of a growing number of young Latino men who are turning to Trump in this election cycle – a growing phenomenon despite a majority of Latino voters still gravitating towards the Democratic Party. But in a state like Nevada, where the margins are razor thin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, the erosion of young Latino men could impact the election for Democrats.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll published Monday shows Harris is leading Trump among Latino voters in Nevada 56% to 40%. And while she holds the majority of support among Latinas, Trump is seeing a rise in support among Latino men under 50.

Slightly more than half – 53% – of Latino men ages 18-34 are supporting Trump and 40% are supporting Harris. Those numbers were almost identical for Latino men ages 35-49, 53% for Trump and 39% for Harris.

For Brian Ruiz, a 23-year-old who lives in North Las Vegas, Harris is making a lot of promises that he doesn’t think will help the economy.

While Latinos have one of the highest employment rates in the United States, issues persist with the type of jobs Latinos are working. Often hard labor and low paying, Latino men are disproportionately working construction and maintenance jobs compared to all U.S. men.

And with prices still coming down from high inflation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the pay disparity is hurting Latino pocketbooks more than White Americans.

“I feel like we’re just gonna go more in debt than we already are,” Ruiz said.

But under Trump, Ruiz insisted, “everything was kind of cheaper” and the country wasn’t at war.

“To be honest, it wasn’t really that bad,” Ruiz said of Trump’s administration. “But ever since they kind of just got into office, like Kamala Harris and (Joe) Biden, it’s kind of gone to shit.”

Lack of outreach, lack of support

Just miles down from the Las Vegas strip, on a Tuesday night, at least a hundred people gathered for a series of intimate Mixed Martial Arts or MMA fighter’s matches at UFC’s Apex Arena.

The crowd of mostly men cheered when the fighter they were rooting for punched his opponent in the face. Some fighters didn’t make it past the first round. But for the 10 fighters that competed that evening, it was their one shot to impress the big boss, Dana White, a Republican and close ally to Trump.

It’s the type of event that Trump has used to get closer to young men, especially Latinos.

Trump over the past several months has randomly dropped into major UFC events. He’s done interviews with podcasters like Lex Friedman and Theo Von. And he’s rolled out endorsements from Reggaeton stars Anuel AA and Nicky Jam. (The two Reggaetoneros faced backlash from some Latinos for their support of GOP nominee.)

But it’s something that is resonating with some Latino men.

Yordany Gonzalez, a 34-year-old Las Vegas resident, is a registered Democrat who voted for Joe Biden in 2020. But he remembers the day Biden lost his support. On Biden’s first day in office, he signed an executive order for the protections of gay and transgender people in schools and workplaces.

“Children should be able to learn without worrying about whether they will be denied access to the restroom, the locker room, or school sports,” Biden’s executive order said.

Gonzalez, who practices martial arts and has a daughter, said he did not agree with the action.

Latinos, he said, are actually “very conservative.” A lot of times Republicans are thought of as “rich white guys,” he said. While he doesn’t fully trust the Democratic or Republican parties, Gonzalez said he believes that right now Republicans will do what they need to fix the economy.

“Maybe we got to be a little selfish in our country and say, you know, what everybody else? We can’t do nothing for you right now. We need to work ourselves out,” he said. “And I just feel like the Republicans are just, you know, they’re more greedy.”

Rafael Collazo, executive director of UnidosUS Action Fund, the political arm of the Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization, said the shift in support towards Republicans among Latino men speaks to the “sustained lack of engagement” to the broader Latino community. 

Democrats’ lack of engagement to Latino voters leads to lack of information, which turns to frustration and then leads to misinformation creeping into voters’ politics, Collazo said. Latino men, in particular, are not hearing from Democrats about the message that matters most to them: the economy.

“The perception of Trump being some business guru unfortunately creeps in,” Collazo said of Latino men trusting Trump.

With less than a month until the election, the Harris campaign has said it is working to make up ground with Latino men. The campaign launched “Hombres con Harris,” an effort to mobilize Latino men by homing in on an economic message. Top surrogates will be stopping by Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, carnes asadas, union halls, and other community centered venues to try and reach more Latino men.

Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, alongside Rep. Reuben Gallego and actor Jaime Camil kicked off the push in Arizona. The campaign will host a series of events in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada to appeal to Latino men.

Harris campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Sen. Ray Luján, D-N.M., and Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., attended the Mexican world champion boxer Canelo Alvarez and Edgar Berlanga boxing match last month in Las Vegas. Alvarez beat Berlanga in the match, a win celebrated by Mexicans across the U.S.

Harris also held a rally in Las Vegas in September where 7,500 people attended. Walz, held a rally in Reno on Tuesday, which came after he cancelled a previously scheduled rally in mid-September because of a wildfire in the area.

The campaign is also pointing to Harris’ Thursday town hall in Las Vegas with Univision as part of this effort. (Trump will also take part in a town hall with Univision next week, which was postponed because of Hurricane Milton.)

But it’s unclear whether Harris’ town hall will move the needle with young Latino men, especially those who are leaning right, Collazo said. The town hall is appealing to Latino voters more broadly. 

“There’s Latino voters that at this point are supporting (Trump) or are potentially supporting him or undecided genuinely at this point, that are in that traditional Univision viewership,” Collazo said.

Past elections showed the growing divide in Nevada

Mario Arias is seeing a new shift among Latinos in his own community in Las Vegas.

Some Latino small business owners reminisce about how successful their businesses were under Trump, said the 31-year-old. But it’s not the only reason why some Latinos are moving away from the Democratic Party.

Some are dissatisfied with the lack of progress, especially those who remember voting for Barack Obama in 2008. For some, they are second or third generation and find themselves moving to other priorities than their parents or grandparents.

“Kamala (Harris) has to unfortunately deal with those negative effects of people leaving,” he said.

Arias, a political organizer who is not affiliated with the Democratic Party, is voting for Harris in November. But he has people in his life that can’t do the same – some who are sitting out and others who are voting for Trump. 

For him, “a little bit of progress is better than nothing.”

Still, Latino’s support of the Democratic Party has been weakening since 2016, Collazo, of UnidosUS Action Fund, said.

In Nevada, former President Barack Obama in 2008 won more than ¾ of Latino voters, according to exit polls at the time. Just four years later, Obama won 70% of Latino voters in the state. 

But by 2016, 60% of Latino voters supported Democrat Hillary Clinton, who eked at a win in Nevada over Trump. Biden carried Nevada by a similar percentage, 61%, according to 2020 CNN exit polls.

But Harris is currently trailing Biden’s 2020 support, according to the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

Collazo attributed this erosion of support among Latinos for Democrats as a result of the party neglecting Latino voters year-round, when there should be efforts to engage fully with the community on their needs. 

“We have this point of Latino men that are screaming at – are telling us very clearly– by their opinions on politics, that nobody’s talking to them, nobody’s engaging them, and they feel left out of the traditional Democratic, progressive conversations,” he said. 

Back at the barber shop, Garcia’s client finally came in. But the rest of the shop was in a lull.

Mateo Guerrero, one of the barbers who was playing Mario Kart, has been working at the shop for only a couple of months. Unlike Garcia, who is going to vote, Guerrero isn’t going to. The choice was simple for the 23-year-old.

“They all say they’re gonna do this and do that, but nothing ever ends up happening,” he said.