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Carson City lowers expectations for Nevada revenue projection report

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Carson City lowers expectations for Nevada revenue projection report


CARSON CITY — Nevada lawmakers are anxiously awaiting a May 1 forecast of how much money the state will have to fund services and new programs for its next two-year budget cycle.

There is already a consensus that revenues will fall below predictions used to create the state budget. But just how far below is a question being raised in budget hearings, in hallway conversations and at press conferences in the days leading up to Thursday’s Economic Forum.

Assembly Minority Floor Leader Gregory Hafen, R-Pahrump, said expectations were “already bad” during a Monday meeting of the joint Assembly Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees.

“Heaven forbid the Economic Forum come back much worse than most of us are projecting it to be,” he said.

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$12.4 billion question

The Economic Forum is a panel of experts who forecast the state’s general fund revenues, including the sales and use tax, gaming percentage fee, live entertainment tax, commerce tax, modified business tax and real property transfer tax. Its most recent forecast from December was used by Gov. Joe Lombardo’s staff to craft Lombardo’s proposed budget for the 2026-2027 biennium.

That forecast predicted the state could count on $12.4 billion in revenue during the next two-year budget cycle, about 3.4 percent more than it is expected to receive over the entire the 2024-2025 biennium.

The state’s economic outlook has changed since then, and expectations of lowered revenue are already playing out.

Alexander Marks, deputy executive director of field and communications for the Nevada State Education Association, said the education lobbying group can see the economy’s impact in the governor’s recommended per-pupil spending increase of only $2 in the 2026 fiscal year and $70 for the 2027 fiscal year.

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“Why does it appear that way? I mean, I hate to just say vibes, but I mean, certainly the comments that are being made by some of them, the budget meetings,” Marks said. “The $2 per pupil budget increase – it’s like, if we had the money, (Gov. Joe Lombardo would) be offering more.”

Uncertainty driving the conversation

The source of many of the concerns is far outside of lawmakers’ control, including trade tensions that has led to a softening of international travel and increased uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy.

“We know our economy is deeply reliant on tourism,” said Sen. Rochelle Nguyen, D-Las Vegas, at a Wednesday press conference in Carson City. “When trade wars disrupt the global economy, it directly impacts disposable income of tourists, both domestic and international.”

Efforts to pare back the federal government’s $1.3 trillion budget deficit could have an outsized impact on the 28 percent of the Silver State’s budget that comes from the U.S. taxpayers. Most of that money supports the Department of Health and Human Services, which manages the state- and federally-funded Medicaid program, which provides coverage to some 822,000 Nevadans, according to a report from the nonpartisan Kenny Guinn Center for Policy Priorities.

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Marks said his group is advocating for changes suggested by the Commission on School Funding, including changes to the state’s property tax structure by resetting depreciation to capture more property taxes, as described in Assembly Joint Resolution 1, but it’s a long-term fix; that reform would require the approval of the legislature, governor twice before being put before voters in 2028.

Bracing for bad news

A Wednesday meeting gave some insight into what to expect from the next Economic Forum report.

Fiscal analysts gave the Technical Advisory Committee on Future State Revenues a preview on non-major revenue sources. The discussion on smaller taxes, including the liquor tax, gaming penalties and the “transportation network tax” on rideshares and cabs, suggested a slowing economy would affect the state’s revenue sources.

“All of the forecasters did reduce their forecasts to some degree because of expectations of softening of tourism and the year-to-date actuals not coming in as predicted to this point,” Michael Nakamoto, a fiscal analyst in the Legislative Counsel Bureau, said during the meeting.

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Forecasters projected a $16 million drop in non-major revenue sources each budget year compared with the previous economic forum report. They also reported a $102 million reduction in general fund revenue in the first nine months of the 2025 fiscal year compared with the same period in 2024, which Nakamoto said was skewed by revenue collected when Las Vegas hosted the Super Bowl.

“If they are visitors, or would-be visitors to Nevada, they might be rethinking it for any number of reasons,” he said when talking about the nearly 11 percent decline in liquor tax revenue projected for the 2025 fiscal year. “Or if they live here, they might be foregoing buying alcohol because they need to buy something else.

“And that’s kind of one of the uncertainties, and it’s the great unknowns that we’re sitting and looking at, and it’s honestly one of the things that keeps me up at night as a forecaster.”

Contact McKenna Ross at mross@reviewjournal.com. Follow @mckenna_ross_ on X.

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GOP primary for open US House seat and Democratic governors race highlight Nevada ballot

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GOP primary for open US House seat and Democratic governors race highlight Nevada ballot


LAS VEGAS (AP) — Nevadans are choosing their party nominees Tuesday for two closely watched congressional seats and the governor’s race, among others, as the state grapples with an affordable housing shortage, exploding energy demand from data centers and federal cuts to key state programs.

The state has a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats and Republicans will vote in party contests after an effort to open them up failed in 2024.

Several primaries feature matchups between candidates backed by party leaders and political outsiders promising change. Come November, the governor’s race is considered one of the most competitive in the country, and holding on to the 3rd Congressional District is considered crucial for Democrats’ hope of retaking the U.S. House.

Here’s a look at the most prominent races:

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Democrats seek a rival for Lombardo

Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is considered one of the most vulnerable governors in the country this fall.

The Democrats vying to challenge him include state Attorney General Aaron Ford, who has the backing of the Democratic congressional delegation and former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Alexis Hill, a county commissioner in northern Nevada who campaigned as a candidate willing to shake things up.

They focused their campaigns on affordability, as the state continues to see a shortage of affordable housing, some of the highest gas prices in the country and cuts to federal healthcare and food assistance programs.

Ford largely ignored Hill, instead directing his attacks at Lombardo and arguing that both the governor and Trump are responsible for Nevadans’ economic woes. He is trying to become Nevada’s first Black governor.

2nd Congressional District

In the Republican contest to replace longtime Rep. Mark Amodei, who is retiring, President Donald Trump has endorsed David Flippo, a loyalist of the president who has never held elected office. Amodei and Lombardo have backed James Settelmeyer, a former state senator with a long political track record.

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The district covers northern Nevada and includes Reno and Carson City, the capital, along with an immense rural expanse.

Trump-endorsed candidates have seen successful in primaries elsewhere, underscoring his unrivaled power over the Republican Party as he enters the last years of his presidency. He easily won the district in the 2024 presidential election.

The GOP nominee has a good chance of winning in November, as registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 70,000 in the 2nd District. A Republican has held the seat since the district was created in the 1980s.

Still, Democrats hope to entice the large number of nonpartisan voters in the district this fall. Their candidates include Teresa Benitez-Thompson, a former majority floor leader of the Nevada Assembly, and Greg Kidd, an investor who ran in the last cycle as a nonpartisan.

3rd Congressional District

Nevada’s other three members of Congress, all Democrats, are expected to win their primaries easily.

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In the 3rd District, Republicans are battling to determine who will face Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in what is considered the most competitive congressional district in Nevada because of its narrow Democratic registration advantage, its high number of nonpartisan voters and a history of razor-thin election margins. In 2024 both Lee and Trump won narrowly.

Candidates include Trump-backed Marty O’Donnell, a composer who worked on the “Halo” video game series and ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2024; Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist and former ambassador to Iceland; neurosurgeon Aury Nagy; and businessperson Tera Anderson.

The candidates ran on border security, energy independence and decreasing the federal debt.

Attorney general

With Ford term-limited and running for governor, the opening has prompted competitive primaries for the state’s top law enforcement post.

The Democratic side features state Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro and Treasurer Zach Conine. Both campaigned on promises to take on the Trump administration, following in the footsteps of Ford, who filed numerous lawsuits against the federal government.

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For the Republicans, Trump-backed attorney Adriana Guzmán Fralick faces Douglas County commissioner Danny Tarkanian. Tarkanian, son of legendary University of Nevada, Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, previously ran unsuccessfully in multiple congressional races.

Both candidates campaigned on “election integrity,” casting doubt on voting security. Nevada is one of the swing states in which Trump falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen, despite officials finding no evidence of widespread fraud.

Tarkanian promised to investigate voter fraud allegations, while Guzmán Fralick vowed to seek passage of the SAVE Nevada Act, which would be similar to changes Trump has sought at the federal level.

Her legislation would require all votes to be counted on Election Day, end universal mail ballots and eliminate automatic voter registration. It would almost certainly hit a dead end in the Democratic-controlled Legislature.

GOP secretary of state candidates question Nevada’s elections

Several Republicans are running for secretary of state, the office that oversees elections, including some who falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. The winner of the primary will take on Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar.

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The GOP candidates include Jim Marchant, a former state lawmaker and perennial candidate who has said the 2020 election “was probably stolen”; Sharron Angle, a former state lawmaker who was part of an effort to block the certification of Nevada’s 2020 election results; and Shirley Folkins-Roberts, an attorney who received Lombardo’s endorsement and has denied there is widespread fraud in Nevada’s elections.

All the candidates support implementing voter ID, which will be on the ballot for the second time in November after the question passed by a wide margin in 2024.

Angle promises to enforce voter ID if voters pass it and supports Trump’s executive order seeking to require documentary proof of citizenship to vote. The courts have so far halted that order, issued last year, from taking effect.

Marchant wants to eliminate electronic voting machines and end the state’s universal mail ballot system. He also wants to require paper ballots, which would be counted by hand, according to his campaign website.

Folkins-Roberts said she will work to keep voter rolls accurate and up-to-date, require voter ID and ensure that election results are delivered on time. She also wants to reverse the automatic voter registration system. In an interview with News 4 Reno, Folkins-Roberts said she believes Nevada’s elections are “good,” but wants to improve voters’ confidence by making changes.

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Red Flag Warning issued for heightened fire danger in Southern Nevada

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Red Flag Warning issued for heightened fire danger in Southern Nevada


We’ll start the week with a heightened fire danger with dangerous heat later this week.

TODAY

Expect mostly sunny skies with winds picking up again on Monday. High temperatures will reach 98 degrees in Las Vegas with south winds 10-20 mph and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

A RED FLAG WARNING is in place from 10am to 9pm Monday for gusty winds and dry weather, so if a fire started, it would spread quickly.

Winds are estimated to be 20-25 mph with gusts around 40 mph at times with relative humidity of 5%-15%.

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Air quality is ranked ‘good’ to ‘moderate’ for dust and tree pollen. The most common pollens are juniper, cedar, willow, sycamore and palm.

TONIGHT

We’ll see variable clouds this evening with skies going from mostly cloudy to mostly clear overnight.

Wind gusts will pick up again before midnight with gusts 30-40 mph possible downslope of the Spring Mountains in the west valley.

Elsewhere, gusts will be 20-30 mph. Breezes will eventually back down to 5-15 mph overnight. Valley lows will drop to around 74 degrees.

WHAT’S NEXT

We have reached 109 consecutive days without measurable rain in Las Vegas.

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No rain is in sight, but for perspective, June is the driest month of the year in Las Vegas. Fingers crossed on a hopefully more active monsoon season!

High pressure builds next with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will reach around 108 degrees in Las Vegas by Friday. The last time we hit a high temperature of 108 degrees was back on August 20th of last year.

Not much relief is in sight by the weekend with highs around 107 degrees and temps at or above 105-106 degrees NEXT Monday through Wednesday.



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DNA Doe Project unlocks cold case in Nevada

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DNA Doe Project unlocks cold case in Nevada


Growing DNA databases continue to unlock decades-old cold cases. How the DNA Doe Project helped to identify remains 37 years later.


Posted
6/8/2026, 2:51:05 AM

© KSNV, NBC News Channel

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