Montana
Yeah, that’s the ticket
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December 04, 2025
For several election cycles, students of Alexander Street have waited outside Montana polling places attempting to spot an increasingly rare political bird: the ticket splitter.
Voters selecting a presidential candidate from one party while choosing candidates from a different party further down their ballots have proven a powerful handicap for Democrats in tight political races, but that share of the electorate is thinning. The split-ticket voters who backed Democrats like Steve Bullock in his successful bid for re-election to governor in 2016 and former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, who won in 2018 but lost last year, have declined dramatically.
“We had a rate around 20% for a candidate like Bullock in 2016,” said Street, who teaches political science at Carroll College in Helena. “Tester was getting like 20% of Trump voters and then he got 8% in 2024.”
Precinct-level analysis of split-ticket voting by Montana Free Press aligns with the observations of Street’s classes and election analysts who visited with Capitolized this week.
The calculation isn’t difficult, said Joe Lamson, the most experienced of political mappers within Montana Democratic circles. The overlap in votes between the down-ballot winning Democrat and the Republican presidential candidate tells the story, as does the difference between the winning Democrat and the performance of the party’s other statewide candidates.
Voters who selected a Republican for president in 2012 and 2016 were difference-makers for top-ticket Democrats down ballot who won by the slimmest of margins. Tester, for example, won reelection in 2012 with 48.6% of the vote. Republican challenger Denny Rehberg won 44.8%, with the difference going to Libertarian Dan Cox.
The voters shared between Tester and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney that year numbered 32,284, based on a precinct-level analysis by MTFP of votes for Romney and Tester. This is the net number of Republican presidential voters also supporting Tester down ballot.
Tester also had 33,957 more votes than the incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama, and Romney had 49,877 more votes than Rehberg.
Similarly, in 2016, now-President Donald Trump and then-Gov. Bullock shared 78,224 voters, based on the overlap in those races, in which Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received 177,709 compared to Bullock’s 255,648.
The split-ticket voters were decisive for Bullock, who won just 50.3% of the vote, enough to defeat Republican challenger Greg Gianforte by 16,000 votes. Gianforte won the governorship four years later in a race against Bullock’s lieutenant governor.
In 2020 and 2024, the splits weren’t enough for Democrats to prevail, as incumbent U.S. Sen. Steve Daines was reelected. Bullock, in his Senate race against Daines, and Trump shared 27,677 ballots, about one-third as many as they shared in 2016. This is also the lowest point for split-ticket voting in the four presidential cycles analyzed by MTFP. Again in 2024, there aren’t enough voters selecting both Trump and Tester to elect the Democrat to a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. The split tickets number 44,339, or 7.3% of the total votes cast for the Senate, a race won by Republican Tim Sheehy
What’s happened with Montana split-ticket voting is a few steps behind the national trend, but both are on a path of decline, said Evan Wilson, a Republican campaign veteran who conducts polling for Peak Insights.
Split-ticket voting nationally peaked in the 1970s with about 30% of the electorate choosing candidates of different parties for president and Congress, Wilson said. But the number of split-ticket voters drops to 7.1% for Senate races by 2020 and 4% for U.S. House, according to Wilson.
He said that the trend reflects votes aligning more with a political party than with a particular candidate. Montanans split their Senate and presidential outcomes in five of six elections between 1992 and 2012.
Street said Montana’s western U.S. House District, held by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, has the potential to be the state’s most competitive race in 2026, with Daines up for reelection in the Senate.
— Tom Lutey and Jacob Olness.
The replacements
For the second time this month, a member of the 2025 Legislature will be replaced.
Gallatin County commissioners are expected to name a replacement for Rep. Ed Stafman, D-Bozeman. Stafman resigned in November, telling Capitolized that he has a new granddaughter in western Washington and plans to spend as much time with her as possible.
Gallatin County Democrats have submitted three potential Stafman replacements to the county commission, which makes the final decision. They include:
- JP Pomnichowski, who served eight years in the state Senate from 2015 through 2022. She also served three terms in the state House.
- Katie Fire Thunder, an organizer of Bozeman Tenants United.
- Tanya Reinhardt, a former Bozeman Public Schools board member whose term ended earlier this yearr.
On Dec. 2, Yellowstone County commissioners selected Republican Stacy Zinn to replace former Rep. Bill Mercer, R-Billings, who was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to a federal judgeship in October.
— Tom Lutey
Montana
Montana Lottery Powerball, Lucky For Life results for Jan. 10, 2026
The Montana Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big. Here’s a look at Jan. 10, 2026, results for each game:
Winning Powerball numbers from Jan. 10 drawing
05-19-21-28-64, Powerball: 14, Power Play: 3
Check Powerball payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Lucky For Life numbers from Jan. 10 drawing
17-24-36-38-43, Lucky Ball: 17
Check Lucky For Life payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Lotto America numbers from Jan. 10 drawing
06-15-20-22-25, Star Ball: 10, ASB: 02
Check Lotto America payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Big Sky Bonus numbers from Jan. 10 drawing
03-07-20-23, Bonus: 13
Check Big Sky Bonus payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Powerball Double Play numbers from Jan. 10 drawing
10-19-39-47-67, Powerball: 18
Check Powerball Double Play payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Montana Cash numbers from Jan. 10 drawing
06-12-17-18-25
Check Montana Cash payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
When are the Montana Lottery drawings held?
- Powerball: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Mega Millions: 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday and Friday.
- Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily.
- Lotto America: 9 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
- Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily.
- Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and Saturday.
Missed a draw? Peek at the past week’s winning numbers.
Winning lottery numbers are sponsored by Jackpocket, the official digital lottery courier of the USA TODAY Network.
Where can you buy lottery tickets?
Tickets can be purchased in person at gas stations, convenience stores and grocery stores. Some airport terminals may also sell lottery tickets.
You can also order tickets online through Jackpocket, the official digital lottery courier of the USA TODAY Network, in these U.S. states and territories: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., and West Virginia. The Jackpocket app allows you to pick your lottery game and numbers, place your order, see your ticket and collect your winnings all using your phone or home computer.
Jackpocket is the official digital lottery courier of the USA TODAY Network. Gannett may earn revenue for audience referrals to Jackpocket services. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 18+ (19+ in NE, 21+ in AZ). Physically present where Jackpocket operates. Jackpocket is not affiliated with any State Lottery. Eligibility Restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. Terms: jackpocket.com/tos.
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Great Falls Tribune editor. You can send feedback using this form.
Montana
Service door of Crans-Montana bar where 40 died in fire was locked from inside, owner says
The French owner of the Swiss bar where 40 people died in a fire during new year celebrations has told investigators a service door had been locked from the inside.
Jacques Moretti, co-owner of the Constellation bar in the Swiss resort of Crans-Montana, was taken into custody on Friday, as prosecutors investigated the tragedy.
Most of the 40 people who died were teenagers, and another 116 people were injured.
Moretti told the Valais public prosecutor’s office that he had found out about the locked door just after the deadly fire.
When he arrived at the scene, he forced open the door, according to excerpts from police reports published by several French and Swiss media outlets confirmed to AFP by a source close to the case.
Moretti said he had found several people lying behind the door after opening it.
Initial findings suggest the fire was caused by sparklers coming into contact with soundproofing foam installed on the ceiling of the establishment’s basement.
Questions are also being raised regarding the presence and accessibility of fire extinguishers, and whether the bar’s exits were in compliance with regulations.
No safety inspections at site of Swiss bar fire for past five years, mayor says
“We always add a sparkler candle when we serve a bottle of wine in the dining room,” said his wife and co-owner, Jessica, who was released after Friday’s hearing.
Moretti told investigators he had carried out tests and the candles were not powerful enough to ignite the acoustic foam.
He said he bought the foam in a DIY store and installed it himself during renovations carried out after buying the establishment in 2015.
Regarding the presence of numerous underage kids in the bar at the time of the tragedy, Moretti said the establishment prohibited anyone under the age of 16 and that customers aged 16 to 18 had to be accompanied by an adult.
He said he had given these “instructions” to the security staff, but acknowledged that “it is possible that there was a lapse in protocol”.
The couple is suspected of “negligent homicide, negligent bodily harm, and negligent arson”.
Montana
‘It was apocalyptic’, woman tells Crans-Montana memorial service, as bar owner detained
Tragedy brought people together in Crans-Montana and brought the country to a standstill.
On Friday, just down the road from the bar where 40 young people were killed by fire on New Year’s Eve, church bells rang in their memory.
They tolled right across Switzerland, to mark a national day of mourning.
Then, moments after the last notes of a special memorial service had faded, came the news that one of the bar’s owners had been detained.
Swiss prosecutors said Jacques Moretti, a French national, was a potential flight risk. He and his wife Jessica, who is also French, are suspected of manslaughter by negligence, bodily harm by negligence and arson by negligence.
Many of the victims’ families had demanded action like this from the start: more than a week after the fire, the anger in this community has been increasing.
At the main ceremony in Martigny, down in the valley, relatives of the dead were joined by survivors. Some had come from hospital for the memorial. People held white roses in their laps and gripped each other’s hands for support.
“The images we faced were unbearable. A scene worse than a nightmare. Screams ringing out in the icy cold, the smell of burning. It was apocalyptic,” a young woman called Marie told the audience.
She had been in a bar opposite Le Constellation when the fire broke out and suddenly found herself helping the injured as they ran from the flames.
She said she would never forget what she’d seen.
Listening in the front row were the presidents of France and Italy, whose citizens were among those killed and injured in the fire. Both countries have opened their own investigations.
Back in Rome, Italy’s prime minister vowed to make sure all those responsible were identified.
“This was no accident. It was the result of too many people who did not do their jobs,” Giorgia Meloni said.
She wants to know why the music wasn’t cut as soon as the fire started.
“Why did no-one tell the young people to get out? Why did the council not make the proper checks? There are too many whys.”
In Crans-Montana people have the same questions and many more.
For now, the only two formal suspects are the co-owners of Le Constellation, Jacques and Jessica Moretti. Early on Friday, the pair were called in by prosecutors. They are being investigated for causing death and injury through negligence but have not been charged.
Now Jacques Moretti has been remanded in custody. In a statement, the public ministry said the move followed a “new assessment of the flight risk.”
“I constantly think of the victims and of the people who are struggling,” his wife told a crush of TV cameras after several hours of questioning at the ministry.
It was her first public comment since the fire.
“It is an unimaginable tragedy. It happened in our establishment, and I would like to apologise.”
Nine days on, Le Constellation is still obscured from view behind white plastic sheets. A lone policeman stands guard, his face covered against the relentless snow.
What unfolded inside the building’s basement has gradually become clearer – and it’s the story of a disaster that should never have happened.
Mobile phone footage shows a sparkler tied to a champagne bottle apparently starting the fire as it brushes the ceiling. Covered with soundproofing foam that was never safety tested, it ignites quickly.
When the crowd eventually rush for the exit in panic, there is a crush on the stairs. It seems the emergency doors were blocked.
But another video, from six years ago, suggests the risk was well known. On the footage, a waiter can be heard warning that the material on the ceiling is flammable.
“Be careful with the foam,” the voice shouts, as people wave the same sparklers.
But the questions here are not just for the owners.
This week the local authorities in Crans made the shocking admission that they hadn’t carried out mandatory safety checks of the bar for five years.
They offered no explanation.
“It was a hell inside that bar. More than 1,000 degrees of temperature. There was no way to escape,” Italy’s ambassador to Switzerland, Gian Lorenzo Cornado, told the BBC, citing a long list of safety violations.
Six Italians were killed as a result.
“Italy wants justice, the Italian government wants justice and the Italian people want justice, for sure. The families want justice,” the ambassador stressed.
That includes for those with life-changing injuries.
The regional hospital in Sion took the first major influx of patients. The stress was compounded by the fact that many doctors’ own children were partying in Crans for the New Year.
“They were all scared the next stretcher to arrive would be carrying their own child,” hospital director Eric Bonvin remembers.
But he’s proud of how his team coped.
Some casualties were unconscious and so badly burned, it took time to identify them.
The most serious cases were moved to specialist burns centres elsewhere in Switzerland and in Europe where some are still in a critical condition.
All face a long, tough path to recovery which the doctor likens to a “rebirth” because many of his young patients have severe burns to the face.
“First the body needs to be protected, like the foetus in a mother’s womb. That’s what’s happening for many now. Then they will have to re-enter the world and find their identity,” Professor Bonvin says.
“It will take a lot of work and resilience.”
Add to that the anguish of surviving.
“They came round and at first they felt lucky to be alive. But some now feel this guilt, wondering why they are here, but not their friend or brother,” Bonvin explains.
“It is a delicate moment.”
In central Crans, the heap of tributes for the dead is still growing, protected from the elements by a canvas.
After leaving their own fresh flowers on Friday, many people then stood in front of the ruins of the bar itself for a moment. Remembering, in silence.
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