Montana

Yeah, that’s the ticket

Published

4 months ago

December 5, 2025

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December 04, 2025

For several election cycles, students of Alexander Street have waited outside Montana polling places attempting to spot an increasingly rare political bird: the ticket splitter.

Voters selecting a presidential candidate from one party while choosing candidates from a different party further down their ballots have proven a powerful handicap for Democrats in tight political races, but that share of the electorate is thinning. The split-ticket voters who backed Democrats like Steve Bullock in his successful bid for re-election to governor in 2016 and former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, who won in 2018 but lost last year, have declined dramatically.

MTFP estimated ticket splitting using Montana Secretary of State election data. Figures represent the difference between the number of votes cast for the winning presidential candidate in a given precinct and how many votes were cast for the opposing party’s top statewide candidate in that same precinct. Individual voter data is not available. Figures rely on total number of votes for candidates in a specific precinct and use a standard approach to estimating political party crossover.

“We had a rate around 20% for a candidate like Bullock in 2016,” said Street, who teaches political science at Carroll College in Helena. “Tester was getting like 20% of Trump voters and then he got 8% in 2024.”

Precinct-level analysis of split-ticket voting by Montana Free Press aligns with the observations of Street’s classes and election analysts who visited with Capitolized this week.

The calculation isn’t difficult, said Joe Lamson, the most experienced of political mappers within Montana Democratic circles. The overlap in votes between the down-ballot winning Democrat and the Republican presidential candidate tells the story, as does the difference between the winning Democrat and the performance of the party’s other statewide candidates.

Voters who selected a Republican for president in 2012 and 2016 were difference-makers for top-ticket Democrats down ballot who won by the slimmest of margins. Tester, for example, won reelection in 2012 with 48.6% of the vote. Republican challenger Denny Rehberg won 44.8%, with the difference going to Libertarian Dan Cox.

The voters shared between Tester and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney that year numbered 32,284, based on a precinct-level analysis by MTFP of votes for Romney and Tester. This is the net number of Republican presidential voters also supporting Tester down ballot.

Tester also had 33,957 more votes than the incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama, and Romney had 49,877 more votes than Rehberg.

Similarly, in 2016, now-President Donald Trump and then-Gov. Bullock shared 78,224 voters, based on the overlap in those races, in which Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received 177,709 compared to Bullock’s 255,648.

The split-ticket voters were decisive for Bullock, who won just 50.3% of the vote, enough to defeat Republican challenger Greg Gianforte by 16,000 votes. Gianforte won the governorship four years later in a race against Bullock’s lieutenant governor.

In 2020 and 2024, the splits weren’t enough for Democrats to prevail, as incumbent U.S. Sen. Steve Daines was reelected. Bullock, in his Senate race against Daines, and Trump shared 27,677 ballots, about one-third as many as they shared in 2016. This is also the lowest point for split-ticket voting in the four presidential cycles analyzed by MTFP. Again in 2024, there aren’t enough voters selecting both Trump and Tester to elect the Democrat to a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. The split tickets number 44,339, or 7.3% of the total votes cast for the Senate, a race won by Republican Tim Sheehy

What’s happened with Montana split-ticket voting is a few steps behind the national trend, but both are on a path of decline, said Evan Wilson, a Republican campaign veteran who conducts polling for Peak Insights.

Split-ticket voting nationally peaked in the 1970s with about 30% of the electorate choosing candidates of different parties for president and Congress, Wilson said. But the number of split-ticket voters drops to 7.1% for Senate races by 2020 and 4% for U.S. House, according to Wilson.

He said that the trend reflects votes aligning more with a political party than with a particular candidate. Montanans split their Senate and presidential outcomes in five of six elections between 1992 and 2012.

Street said Montana’s western U.S. House District, held by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, has the potential to be the state’s most competitive race in 2026, with Daines up for reelection in the Senate.

— Tom Lutey and Jacob Olness.

The replacements

For the second time this month, a member of the 2025 Legislature will be replaced.

Gallatin County commissioners are expected to name a replacement for Rep. Ed Stafman, D-Bozeman. Stafman resigned in November, telling Capitolized that he has a new granddaughter in western Washington and plans to spend as much time with her as possible.

Gallatin County Democrats have submitted three potential Stafman replacements to the county commission, which makes the final decision. They include:

JP Pomnichowski, who served eight years in the state Senate from 2015 through 2022. She also served three terms in the state House.
Katie Fire Thunder, an organizer of Bozeman Tenants United.
Tanya Reinhardt, a former Bozeman Public Schools board member whose term ended earlier this yearr.

On Dec. 2, Yellowstone County commissioners selected Republican Stacy Zinn to replace former Rep. Bill Mercer, R-Billings, who was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to a federal judgeship in October.

— Tom Lutey

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Montana

Montana finalizes 2026 primary candidate list

Published

3 hours ago

March 20, 2026

Press Room

Montana finalizes 2026 primary candidate list

HELENA, Mont. — Montana’s 2026 primary election ballot is taking shape after a busy candidate filing period that drew hundreds of hopefuls.

Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and the Montana election team finalized the list of candidates after 380 total candidates filed between Feb. 17 and March 4. Of those candidates, 19 withdrew from their races.

Six independent candidates are still waiting to qualify via petition before being added to the general election ballot.

The following was sent out by the Office of the Montana Secretary of State:

Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and the Montana Election Team have completed ballot certification for Montana’s 2026 Primary Election, finalizing the list of candidates who will appear before voters on Tuesday, June 2.

Pursuant to Montana law, county election administrators certify local candidates for the primary ballot in their respective counties, while the Secretary of State’s Office certifies the names and designations of statewide and state district candidates, including candidates for federal, legislative, and certain judicial offices.

The Montana Commissioner of Political Practices (COPP) notified the Secretary of State’s Office and the county election administrators of any candidate(s) whose name(s) may not appear on the ballot pursuant to Montana law.

“The ballot certification process is a key step in ensuring Montana’s elections are accurate, secure, and transparent,” said Secretary Jacobsen. “I’m grateful to our state election officials and the county election administrators and their teams across the state for their hard work preparing for the 2026 Primary Election.”

A total of 380 candidates filed with the Secretary of State’s Office during the candidate filing period (Tuesday, February 17 – Wednesday, March 4). Several candidates withdrew from their respective races, while Independent candidates are pending petition requirements to qualify for the general election ballot.

Filings with the Secretary of State’s Office included:

United States Senator: Twelve total candidates filed for the office, though one withdrew and one is pending petition requirements. Five Democrats, three Republicans, and two Libertarians will appear on Montanans’ Primary Election ballots. One Independent candidate must meet Montana’s petition requirements.
United States Representative: Sixteen total filings in the 1st and 2nd Congressional races.
1st Congressional (MT-01) Ten candidates submitted paperwork for the Congressional seat – four Democrats, four Republicans, and one Libertarian. One Independent candidate must meet petition requirements. The incumbent did not file for re-election.
2nd Congressional (MT-02) Six candidates submitted filing paperwork, including the incumbent, who is the lone Republican to file for the race. Three Democrats and one Libertarian filed, while one Independent also submitted their paperwork for the race and is pending petition requirements.
Public Service Commission: Seven candidates will appear on the ballot for the two PSC seats.
PSC District 1: Two Republicans and one Democrat will appear before voters for the open seat.
PSC District 5: The incumbent is one of three Republicans to file for the seat, while one Democrat also filed.
Supreme Court Justice: Two candidates filed for the Supreme Court Justice No. 4 race – Judge Dan Wilson was the first to file for Montana’s high court, and Judge Amy Eddy followed suit later the same day.
District Court Judge: Thirteen candidates submitted filings, including several judges currently on the bench.
Legislature: The majority of candidate filings were for Legislative seats, where 329 total filings were submitted to the Secretary of State’s Office, nearly 130 of which came on the opening day.
Montana State Senate: Sixty-six candidates qualified for the 2026 Primary Election, including more than 10 incumbents.
Montana State House: A total of 235 candidates qualified for the 2026 Primary Election. Three Independent candidates are pending petition requirements. Dozens of incumbents filed for re-election.

For more information, visit the candidate filing page on the Secretary of State’s website at https://sosmt.gov/elections/filing/.

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Montana

Missoula and Western Montana neighbors: Obituaries for March 20

Published

16 hours ago

March 20, 2026

Press Room

Missoula and Western Montana neighbors: Obituaries for March 20

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Montana

Montana smokejumper Sam Forstag aims to flip House seat blue

Published

1 day ago

March 19, 2026

Press Room

Montana smokejumper Sam Forstag aims to flip House seat blue

Montana hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House since the late 1990s. Smokejumper Sam Forstag, who jumps out of planes into the remote wilderness to put out wildfires, is trying to change that. Forstag joins “The Takeout” to lay out his progressive campaign in the deep-red state.

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