Montana
Yeah, that’s the ticket
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December 04, 2025
For several election cycles, students of Alexander Street have waited outside Montana polling places attempting to spot an increasingly rare political bird: the ticket splitter.
Voters selecting a presidential candidate from one party while choosing candidates from a different party further down their ballots have proven a powerful handicap for Democrats in tight political races, but that share of the electorate is thinning. The split-ticket voters who backed Democrats like Steve Bullock in his successful bid for re-election to governor in 2016 and former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, who won in 2018 but lost last year, have declined dramatically.
“We had a rate around 20% for a candidate like Bullock in 2016,” said Street, who teaches political science at Carroll College in Helena. “Tester was getting like 20% of Trump voters and then he got 8% in 2024.”
Precinct-level analysis of split-ticket voting by Montana Free Press aligns with the observations of Street’s classes and election analysts who visited with Capitolized this week.
The calculation isn’t difficult, said Joe Lamson, the most experienced of political mappers within Montana Democratic circles. The overlap in votes between the down-ballot winning Democrat and the Republican presidential candidate tells the story, as does the difference between the winning Democrat and the performance of the party’s other statewide candidates.
Voters who selected a Republican for president in 2012 and 2016 were difference-makers for top-ticket Democrats down ballot who won by the slimmest of margins. Tester, for example, won reelection in 2012 with 48.6% of the vote. Republican challenger Denny Rehberg won 44.8%, with the difference going to Libertarian Dan Cox.
The voters shared between Tester and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney that year numbered 32,284, based on a precinct-level analysis by MTFP of votes for Romney and Tester. This is the net number of Republican presidential voters also supporting Tester down ballot.
Tester also had 33,957 more votes than the incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama, and Romney had 49,877 more votes than Rehberg.
Similarly, in 2016, now-President Donald Trump and then-Gov. Bullock shared 78,224 voters, based on the overlap in those races, in which Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received 177,709 compared to Bullock’s 255,648.
The split-ticket voters were decisive for Bullock, who won just 50.3% of the vote, enough to defeat Republican challenger Greg Gianforte by 16,000 votes. Gianforte won the governorship four years later in a race against Bullock’s lieutenant governor.
In 2020 and 2024, the splits weren’t enough for Democrats to prevail, as incumbent U.S. Sen. Steve Daines was reelected. Bullock, in his Senate race against Daines, and Trump shared 27,677 ballots, about one-third as many as they shared in 2016. This is also the lowest point for split-ticket voting in the four presidential cycles analyzed by MTFP. Again in 2024, there aren’t enough voters selecting both Trump and Tester to elect the Democrat to a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. The split tickets number 44,339, or 7.3% of the total votes cast for the Senate, a race won by Republican Tim Sheehy
What’s happened with Montana split-ticket voting is a few steps behind the national trend, but both are on a path of decline, said Evan Wilson, a Republican campaign veteran who conducts polling for Peak Insights.
Split-ticket voting nationally peaked in the 1970s with about 30% of the electorate choosing candidates of different parties for president and Congress, Wilson said. But the number of split-ticket voters drops to 7.1% for Senate races by 2020 and 4% for U.S. House, according to Wilson.
He said that the trend reflects votes aligning more with a political party than with a particular candidate. Montanans split their Senate and presidential outcomes in five of six elections between 1992 and 2012.
Street said Montana’s western U.S. House District, held by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, has the potential to be the state’s most competitive race in 2026, with Daines up for reelection in the Senate.
— Tom Lutey and Jacob Olness.
The replacements
For the second time this month, a member of the 2025 Legislature will be replaced.
Gallatin County commissioners are expected to name a replacement for Rep. Ed Stafman, D-Bozeman. Stafman resigned in November, telling Capitolized that he has a new granddaughter in western Washington and plans to spend as much time with her as possible.
Gallatin County Democrats have submitted three potential Stafman replacements to the county commission, which makes the final decision. They include:
- JP Pomnichowski, who served eight years in the state Senate from 2015 through 2022. She also served three terms in the state House.
- Katie Fire Thunder, an organizer of Bozeman Tenants United.
- Tanya Reinhardt, a former Bozeman Public Schools board member whose term ended earlier this yearr.
On Dec. 2, Yellowstone County commissioners selected Republican Stacy Zinn to replace former Rep. Bill Mercer, R-Billings, who was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to a federal judgeship in October.
— Tom Lutey
Montana
Forstag secures democratic nomination for Western Montana Congressional District
MISSOULA — Sam Forstag edged out Ryan Busse to secure the Democratic nomination in Montana’s 1st Congressional District.
Busse conceded the race to Forstag on Wednesday morning. Forstag had trailed behind Busse Tuesday evening, but he made up ground as the votes were counted into the early hours of Wednesday morning. The other two candidates in the race, Russl Cleveland and Matt Rains, are sitting at third and fourth, respectively.
Forstag leads in close race for Montana’s 1st Congressional District
Forstag spent eight years as a wildland firefighter, including four as a smokejumper, and he’s been vice president of the local National Federation of Federal Employees union. Last week, U.S. House of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, held a rally in Missoula to support Forstag’s campaign.
He told MTN on Tuesday that his campaign has been for the working class.
“We got a whole lot of people here that have been working their tail off to finally get some working-class representation in Washington,” Forstag noted. “So proud of everything we’ve done and so grateful.”
Forstag further noted he wants Montanans to be able to afford groceries, have universal free childcare and restore and expand Affordable Health Care Act subsidies.
“Hearing people’s stories and struggles and commonalities in the ways that we’re all fighting in the system that does not serve us so often, and the government serves corporations and the richest people in this country more than working people. It has been frustrating and saddening, but it has also inspired so much hope in me, like the fixes we can actually make,” he told MTN.
The 1st Congressional District covers much of western Montana, including Kalispell, Missoula, Butte and Bozeman. It is currently held by Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Montana, who chose not to seek reelection.
By securing the nomination, Forstag is slated tol face off against Libertarian candidate Nick Sheedy and Republican candidate Aaron Flint in November.
Montana
In eastern Montana, Brian Miller wins Democratic primary for U.S. House • Daily Montanan
Brian Miller won the Democratic primary Tuesday for the U.S. House seat in Montana’s eastern district.
The Associated Press called the race for Miller, an attorney in Helena, who fended off a challenge from state Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy, a longtime legislator from Box Elder, and Sam Lux, a farrier from Great Falls.
In the Republican and rural eastern district, any Democrat will be an underdog, and Miller will face off against incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Troy Downing, who was unopposed Tuesday.
Libertarian Patrick McCracken is also running.
In the primary, Miller took 58% of the vote. Lux took 27% and Windy Boy took 16%, according to the Montana Secretary of State’s website.
In April, Windy Boy paused his campaign amid “serious sexual abuse” allegations raised by the Montana Democratic Party — but Windy Boy restarted his campaign and later called the allegations “political attacks.”
Miller is representing the victim of the alleged abuse and her mother, although he said he didn’t take on the role until after Windy Boy initially suspended his campaign.
Montana
Western Montana Food and Farm launches new agritourism trail – Bitterroot Star
The Western Montana Food and Farm Trail, a new agritourism initiative led by Farm Connect Montana, launches May 30, offering locals and visitors a new kind of food and farm adventure across Western Montana.
Running June 1 through October 31, the self-guided Trail spans more than 200 miles and features more than 100 farms, ranches, farmers markets, restaurants, breweries and food businesses across the Missoula, Bitterroot, Flathead and Mission Valleys. Along the way, participants are invited to meet growers and makers, taste what’s in season and experience the culture and care behind Western Montana’s local food community.
At the center of the experience is the passport-style Trail Field Guide, illustrated by Missoula-based artist Courtney Blazon. The guide features illustrated maps, curated itineraries, seasonal highlights and more than 100 local food destinations throughout the region. The guide also includes more than $130 in special offers from participating farms and businesses.
Participants can collect stamps at Trail stops along the way to qualify for prizes, giveaways, or simply as a way to document their journey. End-of-season prizes include raffles for three CSA memberships valued at over $600 each, as well as local food and farm gift certificates, product bundles and Courtney Blazon-designed market totes.
The Trail is a regional collaboration led by Farm Connect Montana in partnership with Land to Hand Montana, The O’Hara Commons and Sustainability Center and Abundant Montana, organizations working to strengthen local food systems across Western Montana. The project aims to support local farms and food businesses through expanded visibility and agritourism opportunities while reconnecting locals and visitors with the people, places and stories behind their food.
“In creating the Western Montana Food & Farm Trail, we hope to inspire both residents and travelers to discover the stories behind their food and connect with the people cultivating a more vibrant, resilient and locally rooted food community,” said Bonnie Buckingham, Executive Director of Farm Connect Montana. “Participation in the Trail is a win for everyone. It creates new opportunities for farms and local food businesses to reach wider audiences while encouraging participants to explore new places, support local producers and experience Western Montana in a more meaningful way.”
“Land to Hand is thrilled to partner with Farm Connect on the Food and Farm Trail to highlight the robust agricultural heritage of Western Montana,” said Gretchen Boyer, Executive Director of Land to Hand Montana. “This initiative is more than just a guide – it’s an invitation to celebrate and support the local farmers who nourish our communities every day. By connecting residents and visitors directly to the source, we’re strengthening our local food system and honoring the people and landscapes that sustain the Flathead Valley.”
To celebrate the launch, regional Trail launch parties will take place in Missoula, the Bitterroot Valley and the Flathead Valley throughout early June, featuring Field Guide distribution, local food vendors, giveaways and opportunities to learn more about the Trail.
Trail Field Guides ($10) will be available for purchase beginning May 30 both online and at participating businesses, farmers markets and community locations throughout the region. A full list of Field Guide purchase locations and details, as well as a digital map and Trail listings, special events and more information is available at farmconnectmontana.org/trail.
Funding for this project was made possible through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service.
Regional launch events
• Missoula Launch Party — LaLonde Ranch, Sun., June 7, 1-4 p.m.
• Bitterroot Launch Party — O’Hara Commons Market, Wed., June 10, 4-6 p.m.
• Flathead Launch Party — Backslope Brewing, Tue., June 16, 4-7:30 p.m.
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