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Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls

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Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls


Republican Tim Sheehy has built up a steady polling lead against Democratic Senator Jon Tester in what may become the most important Senate race of the 2024 election.

Montana, usually a ruby-red state, is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outrun other Democrats in the state in the past, and the party’s majority may hinge on his ability to win in November.

But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has sparked concerns about whether he can win in Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket-splitting has also ebbed in recent years.

While Sheehy has benefitted from strong polling numbers, Tester still holds a fundraising advantage.

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So far this campaign, Tester has raised about $43 million, while Sheehy has raised nearly $14 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). Meanwhile, Tester has spent more than $32.6 million, while Sheehy has spent over $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.

Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy speaks during a rally in Bozeman on August 9, 2024. Senator Jon Tester speaks in Billings, Montana on September 2, 2024. Polls show Sheehy with a lead over Tester…


Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images; William Campbell/Getty Images

At the end of June, Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally less expensive state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania or Texas.

The amount of money both parties pour into the race speaks to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

This means Democrats must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere to retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November. Montana is considered the tipping point for Senate control, with Ohio being another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state viewed as a potential GOP flip.

Tester continued to outraise Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Independent Record.

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Outside PACs have also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.

GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $13 million on advertisements supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Conversely, Democratic-leaning PACs have spent $3.5 million in support of Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.

The Last Best Place PAC, reported by HuffPost to be affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the top outside spender in the race, pouring in $19 million. Meanwhile, the GOP-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.

Tester spokesperson Monica Robinson told Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”

“He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana. Montanans know that the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is the best choice to defend Montana – not the multimillionaire out-of-stater Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.

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Newsweek also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester on Thursday following weeks of strong Republican polling in the state.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute survey conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

That pollster showed Tester with a lead as recently as last month, with an August 6 to August 14 poll among 540 registered voters showing Tester up five points (49 percent to 44 percent).

A Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 25 to August 29, showed Sheehy up six points in a head-to-head race (51 percent to 45 percent).

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Elsewhere, an American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV poll showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.

Sheehy, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny after a Native American news publication released audio recordings allegedly of Sheehy using stereotypes about Indigenous people. His spokesperson told the Associated Press, “What folks are insinuating about him, that’s just not who he is.”

Following the spate of polls showing Sheehy with a lead, Democrats announced plans for new investments in the Florida and Texas Senate races this week, suggesting they may see the Montana race as increasingly out of reach.

Even though Republican incumbent Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have been viewed as favorites, recent polls showed the states could be closer than Montana as democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.

The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

“He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”

Update 9/27/24, 5:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Monica Robinson.



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University of Montana president job draws high interest • Daily Montanan

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University of Montana president job draws high interest • Daily Montanan


The search for a new University of Montana president has drawn more than 60 applicants, according to a spokesperson for the Office of the Commissioner of Higher Education.

“We do not have an exact count at this time, as several applications are still being completed and additional submissions are expected,” said spokesperson and Deputy Commissioner Galen Hollenbaugh in an email earlier this week.

In January, then-UM-President Seth Bodnar announced his resignation to pursue other public service. Wednesday, the final day of filing, he announced he was running as an independent for the U.S. Senate to try to unseat Republican incumbent Steve Daines.

Commissioner of Higher Education Clayton Christian earlier said that with the advice of AGB Search, a firm that’s helped the Montana University System conduct other executive searches, he would undertake an expedited process to appoint a new president.

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Christian has been providing brief updates on a website dedicated to the search. Last week, he said he and AGB Search are reviewing applications, and the pool of candidates was “strong and diverse.”

The commissioner also announced he was convening a small working group to assist in the search, members who “represent a variety of perspectives to assist in vetting and narrowing this field of exceptional candidates.”

In an email this week, Hollenbaugh identified the members of the working group who are assisting Christian with application review as:

  • Community member and former Regent Joyce Dombrouski
  • Faculty Senate Chairperson Valerie Moody
  • Staff Senate President Dominic Beccari
  • Administration Representative John DeBoer (Vice President of Academic Affairs)
  • ASUM (Associated Students of the University of Montana) President Buddy Wilson

Hollenbaugh declined to comment on the way the rest of the process would unfold or the role the working group members would play.

Christian earlier said he anticipated an appointment within one to three months, or as soon as early this month.

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Montana Supreme Court allows ballot measure on initiative process to move forward

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Montana Supreme Court allows ballot measure on initiative process to move forward


HELENA — The Montana Supreme Court has ruled in favor of a proposed ballot measure intended to simplify the process for introducing ballot measures in the future.

Justices ruled 5-2 that the measure, currently called Ballot Issue #8, did not violate state requirements that a single constitutional amendment can’t make multiple separate changes to the Montana Constitution.

“We’re very grateful to the Montana Supreme Court for agreeing with us that the attorney general’s finding of legal insufficiency for Ballot Issue #8 was incorrect,” said SK Rossi, a spokesperson for Montanans Decide, the group sponsoring the measure.

Montanans Decide argues the Montana Legislature has passed laws making it harder for the public to propose and pass ballot issues. The Montana Constitution already guarantees the people the right to pass laws and amendments through ballot measures, but Ballot Issue #8 would expand that to include a right to “impartial, predictable, transparent, and expeditious processes” for proposing those measures. It would seek to prevent “interference from the government or the use of government resources to support or oppose the ballot issue.”

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Attorney General Austin Knudsen’s office argued the measure “implicitly amended” multiple provisions in the state constitution, including by limiting the “power and authority of public officials to speak officially on ballot issues that affect those officials’ public duties” and by putting restrictions on judges and on the Legislature. Montanans Decide, the group sponsoring Ballot Issue #8, disagreed – and the majority of justices sided with them.

“Its provisions operate together to define and protect a single constitutional right—the people’s exercise of initiative and referendum,” wrote Justice Katherine Bidegaray in the majority opinion. “They are closely related components of one constitutional design.”

Bidegaray’s majority opinion was joined by Justices Jim Shea, Laurie McKinnon, Beth Baker and Ingrid Gustafson.

Chief Justice Cory Swanson and Justice Jim Rice each wrote dissenting opinions, saying they would have upheld Knudsen’s decision to disallow Ballot Issue #8. Rice said the language restricting government interference with a ballot issue was not closely related and should have been a separate vote. Swanson agreed with Rice and said the measure’s attempt to fix a timeline for legal cases surrounding ballot measures was also a separate substantial change.

In a statement, Chase Scheuer, a spokesperson for Knudsen’s office, reacted to the decision.

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“This decision only further muddies the courts’ jurisprudence on ballot issue questions,” he said. “This initiative would violate the separate vote requirement by amending multiple parts of the Montana Constitution, but the court contradicted its prior rulings. Attorney General Knudsen will continue to neutrally apply the separate vote requirement in his review of ballot initiatives.”

The court’s decision means that Knudsen’s office will now need to approve ballot language for Ballot Issue #8. Once that language is finalized, Montanans Decide could begin gathering signatures to qualify the measure for the November ballot.

However, last year, sponsors of another initiative went to the Supreme Court to argue that the ballot statements Knudsen prepared were misleading. If Montanans Decide object to their ballot statements, that could further delay signature gathering while the case plays out in court.

“Regardless, we’re going to push as hard as we can to get those petitions into the hands of voters and let them sign and support if they so choose,” said Rossi.

Rossi said the legal battle this measure has gone through – and the possibility of more to come – shows why Ballot Issue #8 is needed.

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“The state Legislature, and also statewide elected officials, have taken every opportunity to create burdens and hurdles and rigamarole for campaigns to get through in order to just get to the signature gathering phase, and then to get through the signature gathering phase onto the ballot, and then get through the election phase,” said Rossi. “The reason we filed this initiative is just to make sure that the process is simple, that the timeline is clear, and that Montanans can have their will heard when they want to propose and pass laws that they deem worthy.”





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Christi Jacobsen enters race for Western House seat

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Christi Jacobsen enters race for Western House seat


Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen is running for Montana’s Western Congressional District seat, entering the race a day after U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke announced he would not seek reelection.

Jacobsen’s announcement sets up a new contest for the open seat after Zinke, a Republican, said he would seek reelection.

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“As your Secretary of State, I’ve stood up to Washington overreach, defended election integrity, and delivered real results for Montanans. In 2020, voters gave me a mandate to clean up our elections, grow Montana business, and push back against radical liberal special interests. I delivered. Now it’s time to take that same results-driven, America First leadership to Congress.”



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