Republican Tim Sheehy has built up a steady polling lead against Democratic Senator Jon Tester in what may become the most important Senate race of the 2024 election.

Montana, usually a ruby-red state, is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outrun other Democrats in the state in the past, and the party’s majority may hinge on his ability to win in November.

But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has sparked concerns about whether he can win in Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket-splitting has also ebbed in recent years.

While Sheehy has benefitted from strong polling numbers, Tester still holds a fundraising advantage.

So far this campaign, Tester has raised about $43 million, while Sheehy has raised nearly $14 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). Meanwhile, Tester has spent more than $32.6 million, while Sheehy has spent over $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.

At the end of June, Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally less expensive state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania or Texas.

The amount of money both parties pour into the race speaks to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

This means Democrats must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere to retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November. Montana is considered the tipping point for Senate control, with Ohio being another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state viewed as a potential GOP flip.

Tester continued to outraise Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Independent Record.

Outside PACs have also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.

GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $13 million on advertisements supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Conversely, Democratic-leaning PACs have spent $3.5 million in support of Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.

The Last Best Place PAC, reported by HuffPost to be affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the top outside spender in the race, pouring in $19 million. Meanwhile, the GOP-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.

Tester spokesperson Monica Robinson told Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”

“He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana. Montanans know that the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is the best choice to defend Montana – not the multimillionaire out-of-stater Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.

Newsweek also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester on Thursday following weeks of strong Republican polling in the state.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute survey conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

That pollster showed Tester with a lead as recently as last month, with an August 6 to August 14 poll among 540 registered voters showing Tester up five points (49 percent to 44 percent).

A Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 25 to August 29, showed Sheehy up six points in a head-to-head race (51 percent to 45 percent).

Elsewhere, an American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV poll showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.

Sheehy, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny after a Native American news publication released audio recordings allegedly of Sheehy using stereotypes about Indigenous people. His spokesperson told the Associated Press, “What folks are insinuating about him, that’s just not who he is.”

Following the spate of polls showing Sheehy with a lead, Democrats announced plans for new investments in the Florida and Texas Senate races this week, suggesting they may see the Montana race as increasingly out of reach.

Even though Republican incumbent Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have been viewed as favorites, recent polls showed the states could be closer than Montana as democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.

The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

“He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”

Update 9/27/24, 5:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Monica Robinson.

As Montana pushes to have grizzly bears delisted from Endangered Species Act protections in portions of the state, the state’s Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks has launched an information dashboard to track human-caused grizzly bear deaths.

FWP said in a news release the dashboard is part of an effort to increase transparency, educate Montanans on why grizzlies are killed or die when they are currently federally protected, and to show that its management strategy has the state ready to manage grizzly bears in portions of the state on its own.

“Tracking grizzly bear mortality is a key metric when we look at bear management,” said Quentin Kujala, FWP’s chief of conservation policy. “This dashboard allows us to be transparent with the public on what kinds of mortality we’re seeing and what the causes are. It will also help reinforce our consistent message of securing attractants and being bear aware to avoid conflicts.”

The release of the dashboard also comes after the killing of nine grizzlies in Montana since the start of August, and 15 total since the start of July. In August, three were killed by U.S. Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services because of livestock conflicts, another was killed by a car or train in Lewis and Clark County, two in Pondera County were illegally killed, and one in Powell County was killed because it had been getting into chicken coops and garbage near homes.

Two bears have been killed in September. One was killed in Gallatin County by hunters after it charged them, FWP said, while the other was euthanized south of Libby after getting into chicken coops and other attractants.

In total this year, according to the dashboard, 22 grizzly bears have died in human-caused deaths.

The Gianforte administration has asked, and pushed for, grizzlies to be delisted in the Greater Yellowstone and Northern Continental Divide ecosystems. Grizzly bears are currently a threatened species in the Lower 48, but conservation groups believe the state is only interested in allowing grizzlies to be hunted, which they say could threaten the recovery the population has undergone.

The state earlier this month released its final environmental impact statement for its grizzly bear management plan, another step the state hopes will convince the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to agree to delist the bears in the two ecosystems. It also this summer translocated two grizzlies from northwestern Montana to the Yellowstone ecosystem as part of those efforts.

The federal government said earlier this year it will release a decision on whether to delist the grizzlies in those two ecosystems by the end of January.

The dashboard will update every day at 1 p.m. and will reset at the start of each new year but contain data from previous years in its archive. FWP said tracking grizzly bear populations and mortalities will be a key piece in the state’s effort to manage grizzlies.

“We know the public is interested and passionate about grizzly bears and their management,” Kujala said in a statement. “This dashboard lets them see what’s happening with bear mortalities on a daily basis.”

We hear a lot in the headlines this time of the year about conflicts with people and grizzly bears in Montana.

Multiple incidents of run-ins with bears have been reported, some involving early-season hunters running into bears. Others were hikers who inadvertently started a bear on a foggy mountain on the Highline Trail in Glacier National Park.

Not all of those end in the deaths of a bear in a self-defense situation, or in cases where FWP has to euthanize a bear that’s become accustomed to getting its food from people while packing on calories for the upcoming hibernation.

Now, the state is trying something different, to not only give people a better accounting of the numbers of the grizzlies that are dying but also to educate people on details so they can be more “bear aware”.

READ MORE: Advice on Staying Bear Aware During Hunting Season

This week, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks is rolling out a new tool where the public can keep track of grizzly mortality.

The Grizzly Bear Mortality Dashboard is a new, online tool showing information as to what leads to a grizzly death, whether in a self-defense situation or where a “problem bear” had to be destroyed. It covers the entire state, outside of tribal lands. The agency’s idea is to educate people on how to prevent conflicts. The link is on the state’s Grizzly Bear Management page.

How the Montana Grizzly Mortality site will be used

“This dashboard allows us to be transparent with the public on what kinds of mortality we’re seeing and what the causes are,” explained FWP Chief of Conservation Policy Quentin Kujala.”It will also help reinforce our consistent message of securing attractants and being bear aware to avoid conflicts.” 

The site is also part of the state’s efforts to eventually take over management of the big bears if they are removed from the federal Endangered Species List. A final environmental impact statement explaining those plans was released earlier this month.

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