Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., at the National Republican Senatorial Committee building on June 13, 2024, in Washington, D.C. Trump was visiting Capitol Hill to meet with Senate Republicans and participate in additional meetings. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who is in charge of flipping the chamber from blue to red this November, said Tuesday he expects his home state will play a key role in ensuring a Republican majority come January.

Daines, who is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that of the four toss-up states that will determine control of the Senate, he believes Montana is the most likely to choose a new senator over the incumbent, Democrat Jon Tester.

“Of all of the states we’re currently battling, it’d be the most likely pick-up right now, if you graded on a curve,” Daines said.

Republicans expect to gain the West Virginia Senate seat currently controlled by independent Joe Manchin III, who is retiring. But, they’ll need one more pick up to hold at least 51 seats in the 100-member chamber and secure the majority.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter categorizes Ohio, Michigan, Montana and Nevada’s races as toss-ups, while the other Senate races are rated as at least leaning toward Democrats or Republicans.

Electoral trends

Daines said that he expects the November elections will follow a trend from 2016 and 2020, in which the winner of the Senate race very closely tracks with which presidential candidate wins in their state.

“The only exception, of 69 races in 2016 and 2020, with Trump on the ballot, was Susan Collins — where Joe Biden won Maine, but Susan Collins won the Senate race,” Daines said, referring to former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden and the current Republican senator from Maine. “History shows in a presidential year, these races will all start to track by the time we get to the end of October, and then on Election Day, importantly, we’ll be tracking pretty close with the presidential ballot.”

Daines, who was sitting for a panel interview with members of the Regional Reporters Association at the National Republican Senatorial Committee offices in Washington, D.C., said the party is applying the lessons learned from 2022 to this year’s campaigns.

Democrats targeted their messaging “effectively” two years ago, while Republicans had “candidates that were able to win primary elections, but were not as appealing in a general,” Daines said.

“And that’s why one of the key strategies here at the NRSC was to be intentional in primaries,” Daines said, adding he wanted fewer “wounds and battle scars” for the GOP candidates who won their primaries as they went into the general election campaign.

Daines said that he doesn’t expect reproductive rights and issues around democracy to be as central to how voters cast ballots this year as compared to 2022.

“In ‘22 the Democrats mentioned a lot on abortion and a lot on January 6 and the threat to democracy,” Daines said. “I think both of those issues are going to be less powerful in the ‘24 election.”

On abortion specifically, he said that GOP Senate candidates are “messaging well on this back in their respective states.”

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said in a written statement that “Senate campaigns are candidate vs candidate battles, and Senate Democrats will win because we have the better candidates in every single battleground.”

“Steve Daines’ failure to vet his candidates has saddled Senate Republicans with deeply flawed recruits who are embroiled in a never ending series of scandals: they’ve been caught lying about their biographies, face vulnerabilities stemming from their finances and are running on a platform of deeply unpopular policies,” Garcia added.

Montana focus

Daines said he expects Montana voters will elect Republican candidate Tim Sheehy over Tester in November, citing data from former election years as well as how recent transplants to the state have registered to vote.

“We’ve had a net migration of center-right voters to Montana since Jon Tester was last on the ballot,” Daines said. “He won by 18,000 votes against Matt Rosendale back in 2018. We’ve had 100,000 new voters move to Montana since 2018. If you look at the voter rolls, by a 2-to-1 margin, they’re Republicans.”

Daines said he refers to these transplants as “COWs” since they are leaving California, Oregon and Washington states to live in Montana — the first letters of each state. He also says they aren’t looking to bring the blue-leaning politics of their former states to their new home.

“These are refugees, not missionaries,” Daines said. “They’re moving to Montana to join us, not to change us. And that’s how that’s shifting the political numbers in Montana; just mathematically, it becomes increasingly difficult for Jon Tester to win.”

Daines said that mid-July polling in the race mirrors what he experienced ahead of his last re-election.

“The polling data that we are seeing with Tim Sheehy matches exactly where I was polling with Steve Bullock by the same pollster four years ago,” Daines said, referring to the former Democratic governor who ran for Senate in 2020. “And we ended up winning by 10 points.”

When that’s combined with the millions of dollars that Democrats have spent on Tester’s re-election campaign, Daines said the odds are good for Republicans.

“(Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and Tester have poured $45 million of negative ads on Tim Sheehy since last November,” Daines said. “We’ve never seen anything like it in any Senate race in the history of the United States that early, that much money spent. And the fact that Tim Sheehy is tied up right now on public polls is quite remarkable.”

DSCC Chairman Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, told States Newsroom on Tuesday that he expects Tester will win reelection.

“He’s wrong. He’s not going to flip Montana. Jon Tester is a strong candidate. He’s authentic. He’s running against a seriously flawed candidate that the Republicans have put forward. Clearly they didn’t do any vetting before they recruited him to run in Montana,” Peters said. “And people in Montana, want someone who’s authentic, has lived in the state and understands the challenges of people in Montana. And that’s Jon Tester.”

Nevada battleground

Daines also has hopes that the GOP can pick up Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is facing a challenge from Republican candidate Sam Brown.

During the 2022 Senate race, he noted that Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican candidate Adam Laxalt by about 8,000 votes.

“It was the tightest Senate race that cycle. That’s four votes per precinct,” Daines said. “That’s not lost, certainly on both sides of the ledger.”

Had Laxalt been running during a presidential election year, when rural voters tend to turn out in higher numbers than during midterm election years, Daines said Laxalt would have won a seat in the Senate.

“Looking at more recent polling numbers in Nevada, Rosen’s ballot number is very low. She’s in the low 40s. That’s a big warning sign for an incumbent,” Daines said. “It also shows there’s great upside for Sam Brown at the moment.”

Michigan race

In Michigan, which presents another chance for Republicans to gain and potentially grow a Senate majority, Daines said he isn’t worried about negative ads from the Republican primary impacting their prospects during the general election.

“You always worry about — whether you’re on the Democratic or Republican side — damaging primaries. And something that we have done at the NRSC in this particular election cycle, is to be intentional about getting behind candidates early in primaries,” Daines said. “And Michigan’s an example of that.”

The NRSC and Trump both endorsed GOP candidate Mike Rogers early, he said.

“And so far in this election cycle, there’s been $250 million less spent in Republican primaries versus last cycle,” Daines said. “Democrats have spent $60 million more in their primaries versus last cycle. And in part that’s due to a strategy that we had to get behind candidates early and try to minimize primary battles.”

Daines wasn’t too concerned about recent polling that shows Democrat Elissa Slotkin ahead of Rogers in a likely general election match up.

“It’s not a new phenomenon,” Daines said. “Generally, we run behind.”

Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey hopes

Daines has hope for GOP candidates in other states that traditionally send Democrats to the Senate.

In Maryland, he expects former Gov. Larry Hogan has a chance to defeat Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the open seat.

When Republicans polled the chances for Hogan before he entered the race, they showed he had higher favorability than when he left office, Daines said.

And while Daines said he knows that Kamala Harris will likely win Maryland by “25 points or more,” he still expects Hogan will have a strong campaign.

“That’s not a new phenomenon for Larry Hogan. And so he will run in this maverick kind of lane,” Daines said, noting that Hogan has distanced himself from Trump.

Daines sought to put a little bit of distance between the NRSC and the Aug. 13 Republican Senate primary in Minnesota when asked about the candidates, though he said he stood by a previous comment that Royce White can’t win the GOP primary or the general election.

“We’ll wait and see how the primary shakes out in Minnesota. Again, it’s coming up here pretty soon, mid-August,” Daines said. “But yeah, I think Joe Fraser is going to be a more electable candidate, certainly in the general.”

Whichever GOP candidate wins the primary will face Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the general election, fighting for a seat that is rated as “solid Democratic” by The Cook Political Report.

New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s recent conviction has also led Daines to not entirely count the state out, though the odds are long.

Curtis Bashaw, he said, is a “very strong candidate.”

“It’s a race we’re keeping an eye on,” Daines said. “Obviously, whenever you have an open seat, it’s an opportunity. And with Menendez’s problems that doesn’t help overall.”

Menendez isn’t seeking re-election and will resign from the U.S. Senate in August. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who was pictured cleaning up litter inside the U.S. Capitol following the Jan. 6 attack, was elected as the Democratic nominee.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Solid Democrat.”