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Montana U.S. Senate race a possible “toss-up,” say analysts

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Montana U.S. Senate race a possible “toss-up,” say analysts


HELENA — We’re just over a month away from the official start of Montana’s 2024 election filing period, and the state’s most watched race – for U.S. Senate – is still taking shape.

When Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, announced last month he wasn’t running for reelection, that made Sen. Jon Tester’s 2024 race what some national analysts have called the toughest for any incumbent Democrat senator across the country.

This week, the Cook Political Report, a national political forecaster, announced it was shifting its analysis of the race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”

Cook said their initial rating was based largely on the possibility of a Republican primary that would divide the party and potentially lead to a weaker nominee to challenge Tester. They said it was still possible there would be a heated primary between businessman and Navy veteran Tim Sheehy and U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale – if Rosendale decides to jump in the race, as has been expected.

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However, the article described Sheehy as a strong candidate so far, with backing from state Republican leaders like Gov. Greg Gianforte and Sen. Steve Daines – who’s chairing the National Republican Senatorial Committee as it campaigns to win a GOP Senate majority. It also said Sheehy’s heavy advertising campaign appears to have boosted him in the eyes of voters, citing two recent polls his campaign publicized – one from a former pollster for President Donald Trump and one from a GOP polling firm – showing him with a lead in a potential race with Rosendale.

The redesignation comes despite Tester reportedly maintaining strong approval ratings in Montana. This week, the firm Morning Consult published a report that Tester holds 61% approval in the state – the fourth highest out of all 100 senators in their results.

The Cook article acknowledged Tester has been able to outperform Democratic presidential candidates in Montana, but said political trends nationwide have made it harder to outrun the top of the ticket. Tester’s now one of just five senators in the country from the opposite party of their state’s winning presidential candidate in 2020.

Tester’s campaign said in a statement that they’re ready for a hard-fought race.

“Jon’s no stranger to tough fights, and this election will be no different,” said Shelbi Dantic, Montanans for Tester campaign manager. “Montanans of all political stripes support Jon Tester – including independents and Republicans – because they know Jon will take on anyone to do what’s best for Montana.”

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Sheehy’s campaign put out a news release highlighting the Cook “Toss Up” designation. They touted it and the recent poll results as signs of his strength.

“Tim Sheehy’s lead in the potential primary matchup highlights that Montanans want to elect a political outsider who can bring a new generation of conservative leadership and finally defeat Jon Tester next year,” the release said. “It’s clear that Tim’s message on the airwaves showcasing his military leadership as a former Navy SEAL and businessman and aerial firefighter is resonating with Republican primary voters in Montana.”

Though Rosendale still hasn’t announced a Senate run, he’s described Sheehy as a candidate of Washington insiders.

“Cook Report just changed this race to a tossup,” said Aashka Varma, a spokesperson for Rosendale. “If the NRSC shifted its resources to exposing Tester as a reliable vote for Schumer instead of dismissing the choice of Montana voters, this race would already be listed as a likely Republican seat. This is precisely why the GOP continues to be in the minority in the Senate.”

Former Montana Secretary of State and Public Service Commissioner Brad Johnson is also running for the Republican nomination for Senate.

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Montana’s candidate filing period begins on Jan. 11 and closes on March 11, so that is the time Rosendale and any other potential candidates will have to make their final decision.





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Pregnant woman claims Montana Highway Patrol wrongfully arrested her for DUI

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Pregnant woman claims Montana Highway Patrol wrongfully arrested her for DUI


BOZEMAN — A pregnant woman from Sheridan is claiming she was wrongfully arrested by the Montana Highway Patrol (MHP) for allegedly driving under the influence during a traffic stop near Bozeman.

“I was just pretty shocked. And I constantly told him I’m pregnant, and I haven’t drunk in probably eight months,” says Alyssa Johnson.

Alyssa is a photographer from Sheridan who, at 22 weeks pregnant, was pulled over by an MHP trooper on Dec. 1, 2024 for an alleged traffic violation.

“I have a stutter, and he thought I was slurring so he pretty much said can you step out of the car. Made me do all these kinds of tests,” says Alyssa.

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Alyssa explains that she has severe dyslexia, which makes understanding directions, and completing any sort of test, difficult.

“I mean, Alyssa, when she was in school, she used to have extra time to take an exam and she’d have questions read to her,” explains Alyssa’s husband, Tim Johnson.

Alyssa says in addition to her mental handicap, she was in a state of panic during the traffic stop—affecting her ability to give a proper breathalyzer result.

“They were saying that since I couldn’t breathe through the breathalyzer and the testing wasn’t doing good, they arrested me and pretty much took me to the hospital for more blood work,” she says.

A written statement by her therapist confirms Alyssa’s dyslexia diagnosis.

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And after the incident, the couple got a third-party blood test—because the one conducted by law enforcement could take up to eight weeks to return.

The blood test, provided by the Johnsons, shows negative for any type of drug.

Alyssa says, “I take a prenatal, an aspirin for my blood pressure, and stuff for my heartburn, like Tums. Just like simple stuff.”

Tim explains that in addition to expecting their second child, they’re currently building a home—making the cost of bail and towing a hard hit on finances.

He says, “We have a budget to stick to and the budget doesn’t include any unexpected costs like this.”

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Tim says this is an opportunity for police to receive better training on mental impairments and hopes that charges will be dropped from Alyssa’s record.

“And I understand they have to do their job too. I mean, support police. But this wasn’t right to do,” she says.

The couple says they have filed a formal complaint with MHP.

I reached out to MHP for comment but did not receive a response regarding the incident. We will update this story if we hear back.





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Montana's Weather Update: Low Chance Of White Christmas Revealed

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Montana's Weather Update: Low Chance Of White Christmas Revealed


While our prospects for a “white Christmas” in Montana are still looking dim, a blast of vigorous winter weather promises to make travel tough Wednesday, with high wind warnings, and in some places winter storm warnings.

It’s part of a rather odd winter to date, as we hit mid-December with limited snow in the valleys of Western Montana, but more normal snowfall at the higher elevations.

National Weather Service forecasters have issued wind warnings for many corners of the state, with winds gusting 20 to 30 miles per hour in most locations, with the potential to top 50 miles per hour in the Bitterroot, the Madison, along the passes over the Divide, eastern Flathead County and the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Some locations in North Central Montana could see gusts top 60 miles per hour this afternoon.

A brief warm-up, then cold

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While snow levels will rise, freezing rains will be a problem in some areas, and then temperatures will plunge on Thursday. Northeast Montana will drop to 5-below to 5-above zero, with some areas in the single digits in Southeast Montana.

The severe cold isn’t expected west of the Divide. Forecasters expect overnight and morning temperatures in the Western Montana valleys to drop back into the 20s through the weekend.

And the forecast still doesn’t look conducive to a “white Christmas” unless you’re at that cabin in the mountains or on the slopes. High pressure will move back into the region in the second half of this week and could last into next week.

READ MORE: Missoula Snowplows Stand Ready

Scenic Montana Airbnb Has a Sauna, Perfect for Holiday Getaway

Gallery Credit: Ashley

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Challenges and opportunity for energy production in Montana

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Challenges and opportunity for energy production in Montana


HELENA — Energy needs continue to grow in the Treasure State and on the national level. Industry leaders say there are a number of contributing factors including population growth and the growing tech industry.

On Tuesday, Governor Greg Gianforte hosted an Energy Roundtable in Helena to discuss hurdles faced in Montana’s energy sector, potential solutions and look to the future. The governor was joined by business leaders, large energy consumers and suppliers, community leaders and lawmakers.

“With rising demand on our power grid, we must do more to unleash American energy production in the United States,” Gianforte said. “By bringing together policymakers, the private sector, public utilities, and other energy leaders, I’m optimistic that we can make it easier to produce American-made energy in Montana to benefit consumers and create more good-paying jobs.”

Jonathon Ambarian

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Hauser Dam, northeast of Helena

Participants in the round table discussed the need for reliable and affordable energy, improving the regulatory environment both on the federal and local levels and expanding transmission capacity.

State Senator Daniel Zolnikov, R-Billings, will chair the Senate Energy and Telecommunications Committee this legislative session. At the meeting, he said he is working on legislation aimed at improving the amount of power that can be transferred through Montana’s grid.

“Looking for a way to build transmission in Montana with proper oversight but in a timely manner. I think we’ve attempted to hit all three of those appropriately. Transmission is the big conversation in energy across the country right now,” Zolnikov told MTN.

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MTN News

Colstrip power plant

Montana is a net energy exporter supplying electricity to other states and Canada. Electrical generation in the state comes mainly from coal (45%), hydroelectric (30%), wind (18%) and natural gas (4%). According to the roundtable participants, there continues to be an increased demand each year for Montana energy both on a national level and in-state.

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“We’re hearing from businesses around the state is that some point in the next 10 years or so we’re going to have real serious challenges, which not only challenge our liability but it also challenges our economic growth opportunities in the state,” said Montana Chamber of Commerce President Todd O’Hair.

Roundtable participants say there are a couple of reasons for the jump in energy demand, including population growth, inflation and more investments in the tech industry like data centers.

According to a recent report from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, the growth in electricity demand for data centers is projected to grow by 20 percent in the next ten years. The same report projected a 9 percent increase in demand only two years ago.

Data centers are a multi-billion dollar industry seeing record growth in the United States. A big push for that growth is coming from more investments in A.I. companies like ChatCPT. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, data centers consume 10 to 50 times the energy per floor space of a typical commercial office space.

On Monday, NorthWestern Energy announced it signed a letter of intent to provide energy services for a developer planning new data centers in Montana. The energy service load is expected to be a minimum of 50 megawatts, beginning in 2027, with growth to 250 megawatts or more by 2029.

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Another topic for discussion was the great potential Montana has for energy growth given geographically where the state is located and the abundance of natural resources in the Treasure State.

“There’s a big opportunity here for the State of Montana. It sits at an intersection of multiple markets so it can both generate and export, but also import when it needs low-cost reliable power,” said Berkshire Hathaway Energy CEO Ed Rihn.

This year the Gianforte Administration has announced several investments into Montana’s energy grid, including $700 million for the North Plains Connector Interregional Innovation project and a $1 billion investment at the Clearwater Wind Energy Center outside of Miles City.





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