Control of the U.S. Senate might very well come down to the race in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester is facing a tough challenge from Republican Tim Sheehy. The bad news for the Democratic incumbent is that recent polling leaves little doubt that he’s the underdog, but the good news for Tester is that the GOP has nominated a rival with an unfortunate record.

As regular readers know, Sheehy, for example, has used racist rhetoric when talking about Native Americans — which is indefensible under any circumstances, and which is especially foolish in a state with a sizable Native population. He has also accused women who support abortion rights of having been “indoctrinated.” Sheehy has also been accused of plagiarism, doctoring footage in a campaign commercial, disparaging firefighters, flubbing the basics of the impeachment process, having a controversial lobbying background, and exaggerating his successes in the private sector.

In case that weren’t quite enough, the candidate wrote in his book that he was discharged from the military for medical reasons, but NBC News reported last month that the discharge paperwork indicates that he resigned voluntarily and it does not list any medical condition that forced him out.

But most important is the question of how and when Sheehy was shot. NBC News reported over the weekend:

The conservative host told the Senate hopeful that his version of events is “so confusing,” and it was a rare instance in which I found myself in agreement with Kelly.

Let’s circle back to our recent coverage and review how we arrived at this point.

The Republican candidate, a retired Navy SEAL, has told Montana voters that he has a bullet stuck in his right forearm “from Afghanistan.” It’s the sort of claim that signals to the public that Sheehy wants to be seen as tough, while simultaneously reminding people about his military service.

And while it certainly appears that there’s a bullet lodged in Sheehy’s right forearm, there’s reason to be skeptical about how it got there.

The Washington Post reported back in April that Sheehy visited Montana’s Glacier National Park in 2015, at which point he told a National Park Service ranger that he accidentally shot himself when his Colt .45 revolver fell and discharged while he was loading his vehicle in the park. Soon after, the Post’s article added, a ranger cited Sheehy for allegedly discharging his weapon in a national park illegally, relying on the Republican’s version of events, and the relevant reports were filed.

More recently, however, Sheehy told the Post that he lied to the National Park Service ranger and that he was actually shot while serving in Afghanistan.

The ranger who interacted with the future Senate candidate, Kim Peach, isn’t buying it. In fact, Peach told The New York Times that he remembers seeing Sheehy at the hospital in 2015 “with a bandage on his arm,” presumably because he’d just accidentally shot himself.

The article added, “Because it is illegal to discharge a firearm in a national park, Mr. Peach said, he and Mr. Sheehy went out to Mr. Sheehy’s vehicle, where Mr. Peach temporarily confiscated the gun and unloaded it, finding five live rounds and the casing of one that had been fired.”

The Times also spoke with one of Sheehy’s former SEAL colleagues, Dave Madden, who recalled swapping war stories with the Montanan about their experiences, and Sheehy never said anything about having been shot.

“Mr. Madden said he was surprised when Mr. Sheehy began talking more recently about having been shot that spring in Afghanistan, and that he became convinced that Mr. Sheehy had invented the story,” the article added.

The question isn’t whether Sheehy lied. The question is when and to whom he lied.

To be sure, the GOP candidate remains adamant that he was shot in Afghanistan and lied about the park incident to protect his former platoonmates from facing a potential investigation.

As Sheehy has explained it, he believed that if he’d told the truth in 2015, it might’ve been reported to the Navy, prompting questions about whether the wound was the result of friendly fire or from enemy ammunition. But the Post reported that it would’ve been “highly unlikely that a civilian hospital would report a years-old bullet wound to the Navy.”

In theory, the candidate could release the relevant medical records and put the matter to rest. In practice, Sheehy now says there are no such medical records.

No wonder Kelly found all of this “so confusing.”

As for the significance of this, Sheehy doesn’t have much of a record to fall back on, so if he lied about getting shot in Afghanistan, it does dramatic harm to one of the key pillars of his entire candidacy. Watch this space.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

Wishing everyone a good day! Here are some things to know for today:

WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Wind will increase throughout the morning, with gusts of 40-50mph across north central Montana this afternoon and evening. Scattered rain and snow showers during the evening. High temps in the upper 40 and low to mid 50s.

Suspect shot after stabbing a police officer in Helena. Click here.

Great Falls tattoo shop faces backlash. Click here.

New law requires Montana counties to tally votes throughout the night. Click here.

COMING UP:
FRIDAY NOVEMBER 8: A fundraiser to benefit the Miller family as they navigate the diagnosis of a brain tumor in their youngest, little Ms. Jewel Miller. Event runs from 5pm to 8pm at the Highwood Community Hall. There will be music by The Lucky Valentines, food and fun, as well as a live and silent auction. Dinner served at 5-6. Auction from 6-7 with live music to follow. For more information, call Jenna Baum at 406-733-6062.

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 8: There will be free Developmental Health Screenings for Children (birth – age 5) at the Children’s Museum of Montana (22 Railroad Square) in Great Falls. Event is from 9am to 1pm. Developmental Screeners, Hearing Checks, Dental Health Checks, Vision Checks, and more. Sponsored by Benchmark Human Services, Great Falls Public Schools, Montana School for the Deaf & Blind, Alluvion Dental, Lions Club. To reserve a spot, call 406-268-6400; walk-ins are also welcome. For more information, call Barb Walden at 406-403-0087.

Here is today’s joke of the day! Share with your friends: Why did the strawberry cry? He found himself in a jam!

Email your best joke to montanathismorning@krtv.com

For Behind The Scenes, Follow Montana This Morning on Instagram – click here!

Democrats are growing more optimistic about Sen. Jon Tester’s reelection chances in Montana in the campaign’s final days, according to party strategists, hopeful that a late surge of support for the senator has at least put him within striking distance of Republican nominee Tim Sheehy.

After bottoming out at the end of summer, Tester’s poll numbers have bounced back in recent weeks, according to one Democratic strategist familiar with the race, who, like others interviewed for this story, emphasized that the three-term senator’s hold on the Senate seat remains precarious. But his support has grown enough that allies think the incumbent — long considered the Democratic senator most likely to lose his reelection — has at least now moved within a poll’s margin of error.

“I would say flip a coin, and then call it heads or tails before it hits your hand,” said former Democratic Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer. “And that’s how this thing is going to end.”