As top Republicans coalesce behind former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in his bid to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), the Montana Democratic incumbent’s lifeline may lie with the centrist profile he has cultivated with voters in the state.

Tester, who was first elected to the Senate in 2006 and is up for reelection in 2024, has maintained a relatively centrist image in the traditionally red state. The Montana Senate race will be heavily targeted by both sides, as it is key to Senate control after the 2024 elections. Democrats, holding a 51-49 edge, can already kiss West Virginia goodbye with the post-2024 retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). And in Ohio, Republicans feel good about their chances against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), a veteran officeholder they contend has reached his political expiration date.

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Still, Tester has a relatively high approval rating, with 58% of Montana voters supporting him, according to the latest Morning Consult poll.

“He has a branding that I think most elected officials would kill for,” said former Bozeman, Montana, Mayor Chris Mehl, who was a senior Democratic House aide in Washington. “He’s enormously popular, and he hasn’t gone rogue.”

Tester, the sole Democrat elected to high office in the state, has shown he isn’t afraid to step out of line with his party’s message. Tester recently called on President Joe Biden’s administration to refreeze $6 billion in assets to Iran following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks against Israel. Tester also has called on Senate Democratic leadership to reach an agreement on a bill that would include security enhancements along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Mehl noted that while Tester will have headwinds to overcome in 2024 as one of the two most vulnerable Senate Democrats, the Montana senator’s active role with communities in his home state will be a boon to him during the election.

“He’s aware of what’s going on in terms of getting ahead of issues but also doesn’t march in a party lockstep nearly as much as others do,” Mehl said, noting the frequent meetings Tester holds with Montana voters.

Still, the race is expected to rake in millions from donors of both parties as Republicans seek to flip the Senate seat to gain a majority in the chamber for the first time in nearly four years. Advertising rates are relatively inexpensive on Montana television and radio stations compared to other states, such as Ohio, where Brown has to run spots in several pricey media markets.

“Montana is a cheap date,” Mehl said, explaining that outside groups looking to donate to the race will likely see a greater return for their buck in the state versus others. “So, in some ways, it’s even higher profile now. But in other ways, it’s no different than it’s been before because Montana races are always of great interest.”

That doesn’t mean spending in the Senate race won’t be significant, said Mehl, who believes the race will break spending records in Montana.

GOP strategist John Feehery believes it won’t be easy for Republicans to beat Tester.

“It’s not going to be easy to beat him,” he said. “It would have to be a good candidate who can unite both the MAGA wing of the party and the establishment wing.”

Republican leadership appears to believe that the candidate is Sheehy, the retired SEAL-turned-aerospace company CEO. Sheehy joined the race after being encouraged by Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, his party’s campaign arm.

Sheehy has since gathered endorsements from other Republicans, including Sens. John Barrasso (R-WY) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT), and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT).

But the possibility of Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) entering the race threatens to open the door to a divisive primary contest. Since winning a House seat from Montana in 2020, Rosendale has aligned himself with the House Freedom Caucus, and he was a consistent vote against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) getting that top role in the chamber from the start and held it nine months later when McCarthy was removed as speaker.

While former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson has also joined the Republican Senate race, he has received little attention toward his run.

Feehery noted that in the event Rosendale enters the race, it will likely become a matter of resources. A high-profile primary race could allow the GOP candidates to build their name brand ahead of the general election.

Also, an unknown in the race is whom former President Donald Trump will endorse, if anyone, should Rosendale enter.

Montana overwhelmingly voted for Trump over Biden, 56.9% to 40.6%, during the 2020 election, meaning an endorsement from him would likely carry weight for voters in the state.

Heading into the 2024 election, Biden remains an unpopular figure in the state, Feehery said, so Tester is likely to be weighed down sharing a ticket with him. The 2024 election will be the first time Tester is running during a presidential election with Trump on the ballot.

A possible light in the darkness for Tester could come in the form of a proposed state constitutional amendment on abortion access. The measure, submitted by abortion rights activists, would enshrine the right for Montana voters to make decisions regarding their pregnancies into the state constitution.

The ballot initiative has not yet been approved to appear on Montana’s 2024 ballot. The effort comes after Democrats saw wins up and down the ballot in states, including Ohio, where abortion access was put before voters.

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Democrats in the state have reason to believe such a measure could be successful after Montanans rejected a measure in 2022 that would have forced medical workers to intervene in the case that a baby is born after an attempted abortion.

Regardless of whether the measure makes the ballot, the 2024 Senate race will likely be the toughest of Tester’s career as he seeks another win in the Treasure State.