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Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter

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Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter


Montana’s winter is shaping up to have been among the worst for snowpack in 25 years and, combined with current outlooks, has water forecasters warning that streamflow levels this summer could be well below normal across most of the state.

Early last month, Montana forecasters and water supply specialists said the state would need above-average snow during March and early April, and a wet and cool spring, to keep the meager snow left from melting away too quickly and causing low river and streamflows through the growing season and likely drought.

But according to state and federal reports and presentations released during the past two weeks, the recovery the snowpack made in February and early March tapered off in the weeks since and hasn’t continued to the extent forecasters hoped.

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“It’s not likely a full recovery to normal snowpack conditions will occur by May 1 this year across most of Montana,” Montana Snow Survey staff wrote in the April water supply forecast issued by the Natural Resources Conservation Service earlier this month.

“Below normal snowpack conditions on May 1 could be supplemented by above normal spring and summer precipitation, assuming snowpack deficits aren’t too large. Best case scenario would be a return to cooler weather and above normal precipitation for the next months.”

Since 1991, the median day that Montana’s snowpack as a whole reached its peak is April 14, at 18 inches of snow water equivalent, which is the amount of water contained in the snowpack. So far this year, the statewide snowpack peaked at 13.2 inches of snow water equivalent on April 11, three days earlier than normal and nearly 5 inches of snow water equivalent below normal.

The current snowpack of 12 inches of snow water equivalent statewide is just 74% of normal for this time of year, but also in the 7th percentile when compared to 1991-2020. To start the month, one in seven snow monitoring stations in Montana was showing its lowest or second-lowest snowpack on record. More than one-third of them were reporting a snowpack in the 10th percentile or less compared to 1991-2020.

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It’s still possible that storms and cooler weather over the next couple of weeks buoy the snowpack at higher elevations and inhibit the melt-off, but this is typically the time of the year the snowpack starts what most people hope will be a gradual decline.

Last year, the snowpack peaked at 18.1 inches of snow water equivalent on April 25, but a quick melt-off ensued because of unseasonably warm temperatures. Two weeks later, the snowpack was at 12.5 inches of snow water equivalent, and it was completely gone by June 21. The median snow-free date is June 28.

As of Monday, the snowpack was gone in the Bear Paw basin. It sat at 45% of median in the Upper Missouri Basin and between 50% and 69% of normal in the Sun-Teton-Marias, Upper Clark Fork, Bitterroot, Smith-Judith-Musselshell, Upper Yellowstone, Gallatin, Lower Clark Fork, and Flathead basins.

The Jefferson (70%), St. Mary and Kootenai (75% respectively), Madison (76%), Tongue (77%), Powder (78%), and Bighorn (85%) basins were all between 70% and 90% of their average snowpack for this time of the year on Monday.

Last week, Dr. Dennis Todey, director of the Midwest Climate Hub for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said the Upper Missouri River was running at close to its lowest point above Fort Peck in recent decades, which could have ramifications as the river heads east into the Upper Midwest, which just had one of its driest and warmest winters in 100 years.

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On the other side of the state, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers agreed earlier this month to approve a request from the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes’ Energy Keepers, Inc., to raise Flathead Lake’s spring level by two feet to 2,885 feet and hold more water in the lake.

Energy Keepers said it anticipates 2024 will be similar to the record-low flows seen in 2023 that kicked off a political firestorm surrounding the lake’s levels so it started refilling the lake early and believes the lake will be between 2,888 feet and 2,891 feet by the end of May.

“By taking these actions early in the season we increase the likelihood Flathead Lake will reach its maximum elevation in what forecasters are predicting as another dry year,” said Energy Keepers CEO Brian Lipscomb. “Should we experience unforeseen precipitation then we can make further adjustments. By May, we are prepared to make further changes to standard operations depending on weather conditions.”

Most streamflows are forecast to be between 70% and 85% of normal across all of Montana’s river basins, but could be near normal in parts of northwest, southwest, and southern Montana that saw a better snowpack this year.

But rivers including the Bighole, Blackfoot, Little Bighorn, Tongue, Clark Fork, Smith, Sun, and Teton are expected to see streamflows for April through July below 65% of normal, according to the latest forecasts.

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Those streamflows will be critical to recreation and especially agricultural production this summer, and the relatively dry winter has led to an overall expansion of drought since the beginning of the year, as the area of the state experiencing moderate and severe drought has more than doubled.

But drought conditions improved in Montana throughout March and into the beginning of April. During the past two weeks, moderate and severe drought has declined in southeastern Montana, and less of east-central Montana is abnormally dry than a week before. But after extreme drought disappeared for a week earlier this month, it has shown back up in northern Flathead County and northwestern Mineral County.

“Extreme drought conditions were introduced in the mountainous region along the Idaho and Montana border due to concerns about low snow amounts and possible early snowmelt,” National Drought Mitigation Center forecasters wrote in last Thursday’s report.

The next two weeks could bring some relief if current forecasts hold. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average precipitation over the next 6-14 days, including a possible storm this weekend that could bring rain to lower elevations and snow above 5,500 feet, according to the National Weather Service.

But the forecast for early May currently shows above-average temperatures statewide, and the forecast for May through July shows above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for western Montana, though it also shows equal chances of below- or above-average precipitation and temperatures for eastern Montana for that period.

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That will coincide with the El Niño that has persisted through winter ending, and an increasing likelihood that La Niña starts to develop into August, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which typically means cooler and wetter winters in Montana because the jet stream stays further north.

But July through October are currently forecast to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Montana, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That means the next several weeks will be key in determining how summer shapes up water-wise.

“Given the widespread low forecasts, above normal precipitation over the next couple of months and a slow melt of the snowpack would be most beneficial for the upcoming summer,” the latest water supply forecast says. “Additionally, a wet summer could help to sustain streamflows later in the season.”

This story was initially published by The Daily Montanan, a nonprofit news organization and part of the States News network, covering state issues. Read more at dailymontanan.com.



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Montana smokejumper Sam Forstag aims to flip House seat blue

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Montana smokejumper Sam Forstag aims to flip House seat blue


Montana hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House since the late 1990s. Smokejumper Sam Forstag, who jumps out of planes into the remote wilderness to put out wildfires, is trying to change that. Forstag joins “The Takeout” to lay out his progressive campaign in the deep-red state.



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Amazing America: Smokejumpers share how job evolved through the years

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Amazing America: Smokejumpers share how job evolved through the years


In this week’s Amazing America, NBC Montana is highlighting smokejumpers and their efforts to keep our communities safe during wildfire season.

NBC Montana caught up with a current and a former smokejumper to learn more about the work they do and how the job has changed throughout the years.

Jim Kitchen was a smokejumper for 20 seasons, fought over 100 fires and raised his three daughters on a smokejumper base, where he served as base commander.

Kitchen says he’ll never forget his first jump, when he started training in Fairbanks, Alaska, in 1987.

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“I went, ‘That was amazing,’ and he goes, ‘Yeah,’ and I go, ‘Have you ever done anything as amazing in your life? I mean, we just made our first jump,” said Kitchen.

Kitchen told NBC Montana when he laughed his crew had to do 50 pushups.

Kitchen saw several changes during his career, including women entering a historically male-dominated field. He told NBC Montana Deanne Shulman, the first woman smokejumper, paved the way for the industry.

He recalled a time when he was on a trip to Washington, D.C. , in the early ’90s to coordinate emergency response, when a U.S. Department of State official asked him a question.

“He goes, ‘I didn’t realize men were smokejumpers.’ And I had to go, ‘Peter, I’ll have you know, there’s quite a few of us, and actually, it’s the women that are rare,’” said Kitchen “The early ladies in smokejumping, they always met and exceeded the bar, and they were instrumental in doing these winter details.”

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Another change he oversaw as base commander, was moving from round parachutes used in World War II, to the ones used today.

“Ram-Air parachutes that inflate make the shape of the wing and they actually have about a 20 mph forward speed. And so you can you can fly those in much windier conditions, higher elevations,” said Kitchen.

Kitchen says the job requires you to roll with the punches and make quick decisions on the fly.

He said while training new jumpers, he taught them early to prepare and never hesitate.

“The only thing that we ask of you is that you take all the information that you can and then make a decision,” said Kitchen.

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Nick Holloway, a current Missoula smokejumper, who’s been working for 14 seasons, says it’s important to rely on your training, stay positive and persevere.

“Having done this for a few years, it’s just trying to know that essentially every season is a marathon, it’s not a sprint. Just stay healthy, stay focused and keep having a good time,” said Holloway.

NBC Montana asked both men what they were most proud of during their time jumping.

Kitchen recalled fighting a fire near the Grand Canyon, when he and his crew decided to manage a fire instead of suppressing it when they ponderosa pine trees.

The crew let the fire burn to a plateau, “The Ponderosa pine has about a 20 to 30-year fire return interval in that area,” said Kitchen. “That’s one of the high points as far as land stewardship of my career is seeing fire on a landscape escape and not necessarily suppressing it but allowing it to burn, because then you’re saying it’s good for decades after that.”

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Holloway told NBC Montana, while he has “too many to count,” he’s most proud that recently he jumped a 3- to 5-acre fire at Yellowstone National Park.

The fire grew to 8 acres, “So seven days later we got around everything, put it all out and essentially with a good product upon departure. So it’s just a classic example of a smokejumper fire.”

Holloway says staying fit for annual trainings, regardless of experience, is critical to staying fire-ready.

“Pushups, pullups, sit-ups, a certain amount and then a mile and a half in a certain time as well,” said Holloway.

Kitchen told NBC Montana he still does his pullups, pushups and sit-ups.

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“Many of my colleagues are still in really fit shape even in their 60s, 70s and 80s,” he said.



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Southwest Montana residents share public comments on Roadless Rule repeal | Explore Big Sky

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Southwest Montana residents share public comments on Roadless Rule repeal | Explore Big Sky


Without federally planned public meetings about planned repeal of the 2001 policy, organizations host events in Bozeman and across the state

By Jen Clancey STAFF WRITER 

As more residents arrived to a Gallatin County Fairgrounds building on March 12, organizers unfolded and added chairs to rows of people ready to listen or offer public comment about the planned repeal of the 2001 Roadless Rule. The meeting was led by a group of organizations creating public input opportunities about the rescission of the conservation policy, and Bozeman was the second to last meeting location in a series of seven across the state. 

In June 2025, the U.S. The Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced intentions to repeal the Roadless Rule. Adopted under the Clinton Administration, the law banned construction, re-construction and timber harvesting on more than 58 million acres of public land. In Montana, six million acres are protected as roadless. 

Hilary Eisen, the federal policy director at Wild Montana, explained that a group of public land advocates collected over 4,000 signatures and petitioned the chief of the U.S. Forest Service to hold public meetings regarding the Roadless Rule repeal, but the USFS did not respond. Thirteen organizations decided to group together and plan public meetings themselves instead. 

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“It needs to happen, like there needs to be community conversations about this very impactful change,” Eisen told Explore Big Sky. “So we’re hoping that maybe by demonstrating to the Forest Service how this works, that they will change their mind and they’ll hold meetings, but at the very least we are hoping that we can at least provide that opportunity.”

The event, centering on the Custer-Gallatin National Forest, began with a short panel with Ryan Callahan, CEO and president of Backcountry Hunters and Anglers, Lisa Stoeffler, former Bozeman Ranger District leader with decades of forest management experience, and Vasu Sojitra, a professional mountain athlete, filmmaker and adaptive sports advocate. 

Stoeffler described how protection has become more important since the Roadless Rule’s implementation, including threats of wildfire, water scarcity and climate change. 

“There’s simply no good reason to upend the good work done at a local level with no rationale for doing so,” Stoeffler said. While the USFS has stated that roads promote access to fighting wildfires, research as reported by Robert Chaney in Mountain Journal, has shown that fire starts happen more frequently when in proximity to a road. In the meeting, Stoeffler shared that there are ways to improve the roadless rule, but warned against broad changes in lieu of carefully weighing site-specific solutions. 

Sojitra also shared his perspective as an outdoors advocate with a disability.
“One of the biggest things for folks with disabilities is that we don’t need more roads to get places,” Sojitra said. “ We just need more programming to get to places.”

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Sojitra also explained that through adaptive programming, he was able to fall in love with the outdoors, like many in the room, and that protecting the environment and wilderness is vital to health.

Public comment began later, and residents lined up one after the other to share what the Roadless Rule means to them, whether or not they support it, and why. Bozeman resident Karissa Wedman shared her experience working in conservation and wildland firefighting. She described her appreciation for protected public lands and noted that as a 25-year-old, the Roadless Rule has been in place her entire life. 

“I would like to say something for people my age and younger,” Wedman said. “It’s that we don’t wanna lose this. We love this, and it’s scary to think of the rest of our lives without it.”

Another Bozeman resident, Scott Bischke, described his connection with outdoor spaces in Montana. 

“ We looked at the map today—just of all the road areas in Montana—and [I’m] confident to say that we have either recreated in each one of them or at the minimum been adjacent to them, fishing, hunting, enjoying the outdoors, all the different things that we do,” he said. 

He then directed his comments about the current administration and urged leadership to use the Roadless Rule to protect further lands “for the critters that live there and for future Americans to explore.” 

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Other commenters included a Gallatin Gateway resident speaking to protect forests for future generations, including his 8-year-old granddaughter, and an Ennis resident and board member of the Montana Logging Association, who argued that the Roadless Rule needs deep reform. 

The USFS is expected to release its proposed rule and draft environmental impact statement in late March or early April. When it’s released, Wild Montana will compile all of the comments collected in meetings, both verbal and written, and send the comments to the USFS. There will be hundreds, as attendance at meetings across the state was robust, Wild Montana Organizing Director Kascie Herron said. 

“I’ve been blown away personally by the amount of community response that we’ve seen in each of these towns [where] we’ve held these meetings,” Herron said. She described comments from people on both sides of the argument, and noted that it was important to host meetings that promoted the democratic process typically seen in major land management decisions. 

Helena was the final meeting location after Bozeman, and the coalition will now focus on communicating with attendees and preparing for the public comment stage.

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