Montana

Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter

Published

2 years ago

April 24, 2024

Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter

Blair Miller
| Daily Montanan

Montana’s winter is shaping up to have been among the worst for snowpack in 25 years and, combined with current outlooks, has water forecasters warning that streamflow levels this summer could be well below normal across most of the state.

Early last month, Montana forecasters and water supply specialists said the state would need above-average snow during March and early April, and a wet and cool spring, to keep the meager snow left from melting away too quickly and causing low river and streamflows through the growing season and likely drought.

But according to state and federal reports and presentations released during the past two weeks, the recovery the snowpack made in February and early March tapered off in the weeks since and hasn’t continued to the extent forecasters hoped.

“It’s not likely a full recovery to normal snowpack conditions will occur by May 1 this year across most of Montana,” Montana Snow Survey staff wrote in the April water supply forecast issued by the Natural Resources Conservation Service earlier this month.

“Below normal snowpack conditions on May 1 could be supplemented by above normal spring and summer precipitation, assuming snowpack deficits aren’t too large. Best case scenario would be a return to cooler weather and above normal precipitation for the next months.”

Since 1991, the median day that Montana’s snowpack as a whole reached its peak is April 14, at 18 inches of snow water equivalent, which is the amount of water contained in the snowpack. So far this year, the statewide snowpack peaked at 13.2 inches of snow water equivalent on April 11, three days earlier than normal and nearly 5 inches of snow water equivalent below normal.

The current snowpack of 12 inches of snow water equivalent statewide is just 74% of normal for this time of year, but also in the 7th percentile when compared to 1991-2020. To start the month, one in seven snow monitoring stations in Montana was showing its lowest or second-lowest snowpack on record. More than one-third of them were reporting a snowpack in the 10th percentile or less compared to 1991-2020.

It’s still possible that storms and cooler weather over the next couple of weeks buoy the snowpack at higher elevations and inhibit the melt-off, but this is typically the time of the year the snowpack starts what most people hope will be a gradual decline.

Last year, the snowpack peaked at 18.1 inches of snow water equivalent on April 25, but a quick melt-off ensued because of unseasonably warm temperatures. Two weeks later, the snowpack was at 12.5 inches of snow water equivalent, and it was completely gone by June 21. The median snow-free date is June 28.

As of Monday, the snowpack was gone in the Bear Paw basin. It sat at 45% of median in the Upper Missouri Basin and between 50% and 69% of normal in the Sun-Teton-Marias, Upper Clark Fork, Bitterroot, Smith-Judith-Musselshell, Upper Yellowstone, Gallatin, Lower Clark Fork, and Flathead basins.

The Jefferson (70%), St. Mary and Kootenai (75% respectively), Madison (76%), Tongue (77%), Powder (78%), and Bighorn (85%) basins were all between 70% and 90% of their average snowpack for this time of the year on Monday.

Last week, Dr. Dennis Todey, director of the Midwest Climate Hub for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said the Upper Missouri River was running at close to its lowest point above Fort Peck in recent decades, which could have ramifications as the river heads east into the Upper Midwest, which just had one of its driest and warmest winters in 100 years.

On the other side of the state, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers agreed earlier this month to approve a request from the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes’ Energy Keepers, Inc., to raise Flathead Lake’s spring level by two feet to 2,885 feet and hold more water in the lake.

Energy Keepers said it anticipates 2024 will be similar to the record-low flows seen in 2023 that kicked off a political firestorm surrounding the lake’s levels so it started refilling the lake early and believes the lake will be between 2,888 feet and 2,891 feet by the end of May.

“By taking these actions early in the season we increase the likelihood Flathead Lake will reach its maximum elevation in what forecasters are predicting as another dry year,” said Energy Keepers CEO Brian Lipscomb. “Should we experience unforeseen precipitation then we can make further adjustments. By May, we are prepared to make further changes to standard operations depending on weather conditions.”

Most streamflows are forecast to be between 70% and 85% of normal across all of Montana’s river basins, but could be near normal in parts of northwest, southwest, and southern Montana that saw a better snowpack this year.

But rivers including the Bighole, Blackfoot, Little Bighorn, Tongue, Clark Fork, Smith, Sun, and Teton are expected to see streamflows for April through July below 65% of normal, according to the latest forecasts.

Those streamflows will be critical to recreation and especially agricultural production this summer, and the relatively dry winter has led to an overall expansion of drought since the beginning of the year, as the area of the state experiencing moderate and severe drought has more than doubled.

But drought conditions improved in Montana throughout March and into the beginning of April. During the past two weeks, moderate and severe drought has declined in southeastern Montana, and less of east-central Montana is abnormally dry than a week before. But after extreme drought disappeared for a week earlier this month, it has shown back up in northern Flathead County and northwestern Mineral County.

“Extreme drought conditions were introduced in the mountainous region along the Idaho and Montana border due to concerns about low snow amounts and possible early snowmelt,” National Drought Mitigation Center forecasters wrote in last Thursday’s report.

The next two weeks could bring some relief if current forecasts hold. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average precipitation over the next 6-14 days, including a possible storm this weekend that could bring rain to lower elevations and snow above 5,500 feet, according to the National Weather Service.

But the forecast for early May currently shows above-average temperatures statewide, and the forecast for May through July shows above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for western Montana, though it also shows equal chances of below- or above-average precipitation and temperatures for eastern Montana for that period.

That will coincide with the El Niño that has persisted through winter ending, and an increasing likelihood that La Niña starts to develop into August, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which typically means cooler and wetter winters in Montana because the jet stream stays further north.

But July through October are currently forecast to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Montana, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That means the next several weeks will be key in determining how summer shapes up water-wise.

“Given the widespread low forecasts, above normal precipitation over the next couple of months and a slow melt of the snowpack would be most beneficial for the upcoming summer,” the latest water supply forecast says. “Additionally, a wet summer could help to sustain streamflows later in the season.”

This story was initially published by The Daily Montanan, a nonprofit news organization and part of the States News network, covering state issues. Read more at dailymontanan.com.

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Montana

Evacuation orders issued as 5,000-acre wildfire burns near Roundup, Montana

Published

4 hours ago

February 27, 2026

Press Room

Evacuation orders issued as 5,000-acre wildfire burns near Roundup, Montana

ROUNDUP, Mont. —
The Rehder Creek Fire is burning 16 miles southeast of Roundup has grown to about 5,000 acres, prompting evacuation orders for residents in the Bruner Mountain Area/Subdivision.

The fire started Feb. 26, the cause is unknown and containment was at 0%.

Evacuation orders are in effect for all residents in the Bruner Mountain Area/Subdivision. The Musselshell County Sheriff’s Office is coordinating the evacuation orders, and 911 reverse calls have been sent out to advise people in the area.

A shelter is opening at the Roundup Community Center. Residents were told to contact Musselshell County DES for further information.

Firefighter and public safety remain the top priority. The public is asked to avoid the Fattig Creek and Rehder Road area so emergency personnel can safely and effectively perform their work.

Fire resources assigned to the incident include 40 total personnel, 11 engines, one Type 2 helicopter, three tenders and two dozers.

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Montana

February 26 recap: Missoula and Western Montana news you may have missed today

Published

16 hours ago

February 27, 2026

Press Room

February 26 recap: Missoula and Western Montana news you may have missed today

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Escobar, Jayapal, Members of Congress Call on Camp East Montana to be Shut Down – Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal

Published

1 day ago

February 26, 2026

Press Room

Escobar, Jayapal, Members of Congress Call on Camp East Montana to be Shut Down – Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal

(Washington, D.C.) – Today, Congresswoman Veronica Escobar (TX-16) – joined by Representative Pramila Jayapal, the Ranking Member of the Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee, and 22 other Members of Congress – sent a letter to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Acting Director Todd Lyons calling for the immediate closure of Camp East Montana in El Paso. They cite urgent humanitarian concerns following multiple deaths in custody, documented unsafe conditions, and serious deficiencies in medical care.

This marks the fourth letter Congresswoman Escobar has sent to DHS and ICE leadership. The previous three letters have gone unanswered.

The letter can be found in its entirety below and here.

“Secretary Noem and Acting Director Lyons:

We are urgently calling on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS or the Department) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to shut down Camp East Montana in El Paso, Texas.

Camp East Montana has been operational for six months, and at least three people have died at the site since December 2025: Francisco Gaspar-Andres, Geraldo Lunas Campos, and Victor Manuel Diaz. The El Paso County Medical Examiner has officially ruled Lunas Campos’ death a homicide, citing “asphyxia due to neck and torso compression.”

Camp East Montana was constructed in a matter of weeks and opened before construction was complete and it does not have enough federal staff on-site to provide adequate oversight. Over the last several months, Congresswoman Veronica Escobar, in whose district this facility is located, has sent multiple letters to DHS and ICE regarding concerns about the conditions at Camp East Montana, and has received no responses.

According to detainees, there have been constant and consistent problems at the facility since it opened, beginning with the facility’s poor construction and poor ambient temperature control. Upon opening, the drinking water at Camp East Montana tasted foul and made some detainees sick. Detainees continue to be served inadequate meals, including food that is rotten or frozen; last fall, the facility was also consistently failing to make dietary accommodations for detainees. Detainees have shared that they have sporadic access to outside spaces and recreational areas, and that their dormitory pods are cleaned only once every eight days, despite pods housing up to 72 people at a time. Laundry services are not consistent, and people are washing their clothes in the facility showers. Additionally, the facility experiences flooding and sewage backups when it rains, leading to stagnant water.

One of the biggest concerns with the Camp East Montana facility is the inadequate medical care being provided to detainees. Our offices have heard that only the most ill detainees are referred to the medical unit and that there are inconsistencies as to how soon after arriving detainees are able to undergo initial medical screenings. Detainees with chronic health issues who rely on regimented medications for their health have had difficulty accessing necessary medications, including blood pressure medication and insulin.

At least one of the deaths that occurred in ICE custody, the death of Francisco Gaspar-Andres, appears to partially be the result of poor medical care by staff at the facility. According to ICE’s own account, Gaspar-Andres sought medical attention from facility staff for increasingly serious symptoms, but was only transferred to an area hospital once his condition had severely deteriorated.

In addition to our concerns about poor medical care, we are also aware that detainees have experienced irregular access to their legal counsel, including instances of detainees having only two minutes allotted per phone call every 8 days, which is contrary to ICE’s Detention Standards on access to counsel, and that the belatedly created law library lacks adequate resources for the amount of people currently held at the facility. In January 2026, ICE announced the on-site death of Geraldo Lunas Campos “after experiencing medical distress.” ICE opened an investigation into the death, but did not provide a cause of death. However, The Washington Post later reported that another man detained at Camp East Montana had witnessed guards choking Lunas Campos when he refused to enter a segregated housing unit. Weeks later, the El Paso County Medical Examiner ruled that Lunas Campos had experienced “asphyxia due to neck and torso compression” and ruled his death a homicide.

Lunas Campos is the first detainee to die at Camp East Montana as a result of a use-of-force incident, but we are strongly concerned that he will not be the last if ICE is allowed to continue operating Camp East Montana.

ICE was given $45 billion in taxpayer dollars in the reconciliation bill, $1.2 billion of which were awarded to Acquisition Logistics, LLC, a company with no previous experience managing immigration detention facilities, to build and oversee Camp East Montana. However, in the wake of three deaths in custody so far, continued concerns about conditions at the facility, and ICE’s apparent disinterest in responding to oversight letters from Congress, we do not believe Camp East Montana is being run professionally or responsibly.

Camp East Montana must be shut down. For the safety of everyone at the facility, for an end to abuses to detainees, and for fiscal responsibility to the American people, the site cannot continue to operate. We are calling on DHS and ICE to move to immediately close operations at Camp East Montana.

We look forward to hearing from the Department promptly on this matter.

The other co-signers include Representatives Yassamin Ansari, Nanette Barragán, Yvette Clarke, Lloyd Doggett, Maxwell Frost, Jesús “Chuy” García, Sylvia Garcia, Daniel Goldman, Jimmy Gomez, Henry Johnson, Stephen Lynch, Seth Moulton, Eleanor Holmes Norton, Delia Ramirez, Andrea Salinas, Janice Schakowsky, Darren Soto, Rashida Tlaib, Paul Tonko, Lauren Underwood, Gabe Vasquez, and Nydia Velázquez.

Issues: Immigration

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