The NFC West is a crowded mess, with three of the NFL’s best teams vying for both the division crown and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

And it just got messier.

The 49ers’ win over the Colts on Monday night improves their record to 11-4, tying them with the Rams and putting both teams one game behind the 12-3 Seahawks.

Are Seahawks now the NFC favorite? Sheil Kapadia’s take

What does it mean for Seattle? I’ll be using The Athletic’s 2025 Playoff Simulator to navigate through the next two weeks…

First, the basics. What’s next for these three teams?

The 49ers have two at home. They host the 11-4 Chicago Bears (the league’s leader in takeaways and coming off back-to-back wins) for Sunday Night Football and then host the Seahawks. The date and time on that one is TBD, usually settled late Week 17, but it’s a favorite to be another primetime matchup.

The current NFL playoff picture

The Seahawks have two on the road. They head to Carolina to take on a hungry 8-7 Panthers team, also coming off a win, that can clinch the NFC South for the first time in a decade with a victory and a Bucs’ loss to the Dolphins. Then the Seahawks head to Santa Clara to face the 49ers.

The Rams have the easiest slate, facing two teams already eliminated from the postseason. They head to play the 6-9 Falcons and then host the 3-12 Cardinals in the regular-season finale.

What are the Seahawks’ current odds of clinching the No. 1 seed?

The Seahawks entered Monday with 53% odds to clinch the No. 1 seed. There’s not a big hit from the 49ers’ win: Seattle’s odds dip to 48%, but are still the highest of the three (49ers at 27% and the Rams at 11% before games are played this upcoming Sunday).

The only thing eliminated by virtue of the 49ers’ win was the Seahawks’ ability to clinch the top seed this Sunday.

If all three NFC West teams win in Week 17, the Seahawks’ odds are right where they were: 53%. That’s how monumental Week 18’s game against the 49ers is.

Best-case scenario in Week 17: Easy. The Seahawks are the only team of the three to win this Sunday. Their odds would jump to 74%. They get the No. 1 seed one of two ways after that: beat the 49ers, or lose to the 49ers + a Lions win over the Bears.

Worst-case scenario in Week 17: The Seahawks lose, while the Rams and 49ers win. Seattle’s odds would drop to 7%. But they’re not done; in this scenario, they could still get the top seed with a win over the 49ers + a Cardinals win over the Rams.

How would the Rams clinch? The Rams’ loss to the Seahawks last Thursday night took L.A. out of the driver’s seat. The Rams’ simplest path is to: win out + the Seahawks and 49ers lose one game each + the Lions beat the Bears. The Rams need the Seahawks to lose to make up for the one-game lead, and need the Bears to lose to win a tiebreaker (conference record).

What else should we know?

Oh, that’s right, the Bears.

There’s another team here still fighting for the top seed. Chicago’s Saturday night comeback win over the Packers wasn’t just a thriller; it also added some new playoff implications.

The Bears are currently the No. 2 seed. But they have a better conference record than both the Rams and the Seahawks, so keeping a game ahead is massive.

Again, all Seattle has to do is win out. It doesn’t matter what any other team does if that happens. But things become tricky if Seattle drops a game.

In that case, if the Seahawks lose to the Panthers, root for the Lions and Cardinals. And always root against your NFC West foes.

More on the Seattle Seahawks

• What led to Seahawks’ uncharacteristic defensive issues vs Rams?
• NFL upholds 1-game suspension for Seahawks’ Derick Hall
• Walker’s big night an encouraging sign for Seattle Seahawks
• Seattle Seahawks Injury Updates: Status of trio of DBs
• Huard: The reason Darnold was able to lead Seahawks over Rams

Follow @stacyrost

SAN DIEGO, Calif. — A Navy jet that crashed into San Diego Bay within striking distance of homes, hotels, and restaurants had climbed to about 8,000 feet in the air with no one on board after its pilots ejected following a failed landing in February, Team 10 has learned.

And now documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request from the recently completed investigation into the accident are shedding new light on the chaotic moments leading up to the crash of the $67 million EA-18G Growler.

They reveal concerns about runway conditions, a fuel leak midair, and a warning from air traffic control that created confusion in the cockpit.

According to the records, the pilot felt something was wrong with his brakes moments before the mishap.

On the day of the accident, the pilot and the electronic warfare officer in the backseat had to get into a spare jet due to a fuel leak.
The crew took off from North Island and joined a tanker to refuel midair. They had a “minor leak from the basket” and decided to return to base rather than risking being more than 500 miles off the coast.

As they prepared their descent, the crew was told there was water on the runway at North Island.

The pilot landed but was up against tailwinds and higher-than-normal speeds. He told investigators, “I knew I would have to get on the brakes a bit more.”

He said as he applied them, he noticed the brakes felt “mushy or at least a bit different than normal.”

U.S. Navy

Fearing the jet wouldn’t stop in time, the pilot started a go-around maneuver. Then a tower controller warned, “Not enough runway.”

“This was said in a very concerned voice, which caused some confusion and concern,” the pilot said.

‘Eject! Eject! Eject!’

Retired Air Force accident investigator Rich Martindell said he was surprised the air traffic controller made that warning and thought it was inappropriate.

“The tower wasn’t in a position to really know the aircraft’s speed and what the whole situation was,” he said in an interview.

Martindell, who has flown the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet, a similar aircraft that lacks the Growler’s electronic warfare gear, said the controller couldn’t have known how much runway was left.

“It clouded the issue and caused the crew to have more doubt about the situation.”

The pilot told an investigator moments after having issues with the brakes, “It felt like the jet was not going flying and the water was approaching, so I called for ejection with ‘EJECT, EJECT, EJECT’ and then we pulled the handles,” his witness statement shows.

Jack Fischetti

The crew safely parachuted into San Diego Bay and were rescued by a fishing boat.

The jet continued to climb to roughly 8,000 feet before dropping for over a minute and crashing into San Diego Bay near Shelter Island, the Navy investigation found.

“It looks like what it did is stalled. So, it got nose high, ran out of airspeed, came back around, and then the video we see of it going into the water, nose first, just all happened after the ejection,” said Martindell.

Amol Brown/Team 10

The Growler’s chaotic drop from the sky was captured on a resident’s doorbell and nearby surveillance cameras, which showed it nose-diving into the bay.

“If this aircraft had continued on even a second more, it could have hit Shelter Island or flown into a populated neighborhood in Point Loma — very, very close to a tragedy,” retired U.S. Marine Corps Col. Steve Ganyard told ABC News after the crash.

Navy says human error, weather to blame

After Team 10 obtained the documents, the Navy confirmed in October that it had finished the investigation into the mishap and ruled out mechanical failure.

Instead, investigators determined the crash was caused by human error exacerbated by a combination of factors, including adverse weather.

“The aircraft was unable to safely stop on the runway due to wet runway conditions and landing with a tailwind. The investigation determined that the pilot should have instead executed maximum braking techniques,” said Navy Cmdr. Amelia Umayam, a spokesperson for Naval Air Forces, U.S. Pacific Fleet.

The Navy spent weeks recovering debris from the water and said roughly 85% of the aircraft was recovered including significant debris.

“The U.S. Navy has well-established and rigorous programs for crew resource management, adherence to training rules, professionalism and airmanship,” Umayam wrote in a prepared statement.

“In the days and weeks that followed the crash, leadership across the enterprise reinforced to all crews that strict adherence to these programs is critical to safe and effective flight operations.”
 
Martindell still believes the air traffic controller’s warning was a contributing factor in the mishap and may have altered the pilot’s decision-making in the final moments before the ejection.

“He may have made a different decision I’m sure that that call had some influence on his decision to call for the ejection.”

Team 10 Investigative Reporter Austin Grabish covers military investigations, the Medical Board of California and the U.S.-Mexico border. If you have a story for Austin to investigate, email austin.grabish@10news.com

The Bureau of Land Management on Monday said it approved an updated management plan that opens about 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to oil and gas leasing.

The agency this winter will also hold the first lease sale in the reserve since 2019, potentially opening the door for expanded oil and gas activity in an area that has seen new interest from oil companies in recent years.

The sale will be the first of five oil and gas lease sales called for in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that passed this summer.

The approval of the plan follow the agency’s withdrawal of the 2024 activity plan for the reserve that was approved under the Biden administration and limited oil and gas drilling in more than half the reserve.

The 23-million-acre reserve is the largest tract of public land in the U.S. It’s home to ConocoPhillips’ giant Willow discovery on its eastern flank.

ConocoPhillips and other companies are increasingly eyeing the reserve for new discoveries. ConocoPhillips has proposed plans for a large exploration season with winter, though an Alaska Native group and conservation groups have filed a lawsuit challenging the effort.

The planned lease sale could open the door for more oil and gas activity deeper into the reserve.

The Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat, consisting of elected leaders from Alaska’s North Slope, where the reserve is located, said it supports the reversal of the Biden-era plan. Infrastructure from oil and gas activity provides tax revenues for education, health care and modern services like running water and sewer, the group said.

The decision “is a step in the right direction and lays the foundation for future economic, community, and cultural opportunities across our region — particularly for the communities within the (petroleum reserve),” said Rex Rock Sr., president of the Arctic Slope Regional Corp. representing Alaska Natives from the region, in the statement from the group.

The reserve was established more than a century ago as an energy warehouse for the U.S. Navy. It contains an estimated 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

But it’s also home to rich populations of waterfowl and caribou sought by Alaska Native subsistence hunters from the region, as well as threatened polar bears.

The Wilderness Society said the Biden-era plan established science-based management of oil and gas activity and protected “Special Areas” as required by law.

It was developed after years of public meetings and analysis, and its conservation provisions were critical to subsistence users and wildlife, the group said.

The Trump administration “is abandoning balanced management of America’s largest tract of public land and catering to big oil companies at the expense of future generations of Alaskans,” said Matt Jackson, Alaska senior manager for The Wilderness Society. The decision threatens clean air, safe water and wildlife in the region, he said.

The decision returns management of the reserve to the 2020 plan approved during the first Trump administration. It’s part of a broad effort by the administration to increase U.S. oil and gas production.

To update the 2020 plan, the Bureau of Land Management invited consultation with tribes and Alaska Native corporations and held a 14-day public comment period on the draft assessment, the agency said.

“The plan approved today gives us a clear framework and needed certainty to harness the incredible potential of the reserve,” said Kevin Pendergast, state director for the Bureau of Land Management. “We look forward to continuing to work with Alaskans, industry and local partners as we move decisively into the next phase of leasing and development.”

Congress voted to overturn the 2024 plan for the reserve, supporting bills from Alaska’s Republican congressional delegation to prevent a similar plan from being implemented in the future.