Even Snakes roll snake eyes. As a Broncos quarterback, Jake Plummer went 3-3 in one-score games during the 2004 regular season. In 2005, Jake The Snake improved to 5-2 in those tilts. Plummer followed that up with a 3-5 record in one-score games during 2006.
Down. Up. Down. Close wins in the NFL, year-to-year, are about as consistently reliable as New Jersey Transit.
“You can’t coach clutch,” Plummer texted me Tuesday. “It’s either in your blood, or it isn’t.”
The Bo-lief is strong enough in Broncos Country right now to bench press a F-450 Super Duty. Bo Nix is 24-10 as a Broncos QB1 in regular-season tussles, 25-11 overall. He’s 13-8 in games decided by eight points or fewer as an NFL starter, and went 12-2 last fall.
The Broncos put up a mark of 11-2 in one-score games in 2025, tying an NFL record for one-score victories (11) in a season. Nix replaced Patrick Mahomes as the NFL’s Comeback King. Before the madness of Sean Payton’s fourth-down call in the AFC Championship, Denver had a method.
“The ones that have it, you can see it in their eyes,” Plummer continued. “It permeates the whole situation and something akin to faith!”
Faith is contagious.
Fortune is fickle.
Why did Denver trade for Jaylen Waddle?
Why are fans clamoring for another hammer at tailback to pair with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey?
Why do they want more speed at inside linebacker, someone who can run with tight ends up the seam?
Because history doesn’t say 11 one-score victories is hard to repeat.
History says it’s nearly impossible.
Over the last five decades, only five NFL teams have won 10 or more one-score games in a season — the Broncos became the newest member of that club last December.
But get a load of how those other four teams fared the very next year:
• 2024 Chiefs: 11 one-score wins, 15 wins overall. The following fall? A record of 1-9 in one-score games, six wins overall.
• 2022 Vikings: 11 one-score wins, 13 wins overall. The following fall? A record of 6-8 in one-score games, seven wins overall.
• 2019 Seahawks: 10 one-score wins, 11 wins overall. The following fall? A record of 8-3 in one-score games, 12 wins overall.
• 1978 Oilers: 10 one-score wins, 10 wins overall. The following fall? A record of 6-3 in one-score games, 11-5 overall.
Summing up? Two of the four teams that’d racked up double-digit close wins regressed badly, while the other two improved slightly.
But none of them won more than eight games by eight points or less the following season.
In fact, their combined winning percentage in one-score games that next year was 45.6% (21-25). And the average relapse was a 3.25-win falloff compared to the prior season.
With a tougher schedule, a new offensive coordinator and the usual spate of wacky, unpredictable NFL gremlins lurking, would it shock you if the Broncos finished 11-6? Or 12-5? In this division, you’d take either one of those records in a so-called “regression” year. Take it and run with it.
The Broncos’ floor is as high as it’s been since Sheriff Manning hung up his spurs. The ceiling is fluid. You swap draft picks for a proven, win-now talent such as Waddle because the football gods are going to demand that you make your own luck from here on out.
“Each season is different,” Plummer said. “When there is unfettered belief in each other, it’s contagious and those wins can happen naturally. On the contrary, when there is unrealistic expectations from the outside, pressure to perform can impede the natural flow of what’s happening on the field. That’s why believing is paramount to achieving!”
While the Snake’s Dove Valley chapter was coming to a close, the New Orleans Saints won four games by eight points or less in 2006, en route to a 10-6 mark.
The Saints were 2-3 in those close contests the next season and slipped to 7-9 overall. The year after that? A 3-6 record in one-score games and an 8-8 mark overall. Payton knows. And if he doesn’t, he’s sure as heck about to find out.
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