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Climate change will reduce streamflow in the upper Colorado river basin as groundwater levels fall, study finds

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Climate change will reduce streamflow in the upper Colorado river basin as groundwater levels fall, study finds


The illustration shows historical atmospheric and environmental water loss and contributions. Credit: Caroll et al

The Colorado River makes life possible in many Western cities and supports agriculture that sustains people throughout the country. Most of the river’s water begins as snowmelt from the mountainous watersheds of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, and a warming climate will drastically reduce these streamflows, new research finds.

Researchers from Desert Research Institute (DRI), USGS, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory teamed up for the new study, published May 23 in Nature Water.

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By applying warming to historical conditions for the East River in Colorado and using computer simulations to observe the impact on streamflow and groundwater levels, the scientists found that groundwater storage would fall to the lowest known levels after the first extremely dry year and fail to recover even after multiple wet periods. When groundwater levels fall, streamflows are drawn into the water table instead of contributing to Colorado River flows.

“We found that groundwater matters a lot,” says Rosemary Carroll, Ph.D., DRI research professor of hydrology and lead author of the study. “Even with historically observed wet periods in the model, the groundwater can’t come back from a single dry water year under end-of-century warming.”

The Colorado River has been in a drought state for decades, creating tensions around water rights throughout the Southwest. Scientists have been perplexed by falling river levels even in relatively wet years—in 2021, the Upper Colorado River Basin reached 80% normal snowpack but delivered only 30% of average streamflow to the river.

The study authors wanted to examine how warming in mountain basins may be contributing to this phenomenon. Increased temperatures alter the balance between snowfall and water availability in a number of ways, including more snow evaporation (known as sublimation), more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, and more frequent melting throughout the winter.

Past research has largely overlooked the role of groundwater and how it may buffer, or intensify, streamflow loss from climate change.

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“I’m very interested in the relationship of groundwater contributions to streamflow—that has been a running theme in my research for a long time,” Carroll says. “A lot of studies indicate that in the short term, groundwater release to streamflow will help buffer drought impacts, but before this study, we didn’t have any knowledge on what that would mean over the long haul.”

Rising temperatures will significantly reduce streamflow in the upper Colorado river basin as groundwater levels fall, new research shows
The graphic illustrates how declining water tables under climate change would decrease streamflows. Credit: Jeremey Snyder, from Carroll et al.

The study authors used the East River as the focus for the research because it is representative of the headwaters of the Colorado River, as well as the significant weather and water monitoring infrastructure available. Ground observations and airborne mapping measure snowpack depth and density, streamflow, plant cover, and groundwater levels, among many other measurements throughout the watershed.

Historical data from 1987 to 2022 was used to create the computer model. The research team then applied 4 degrees Celsius of warming to this time period in two ways: for one simulation, warming was applied constantly across time, while in subsequent simulations, warming was applied to each season independently.

The approach allowed the scientists to examine the differing impacts of warming between seasons. Four degrees Celsius is representative of the projected climate at the end of the century based on observed warming of approximately 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade in the watershed. The simulation doesn’t account for likely changes in vegetation over the same timeframe.

The study showed that consistently warmer temperatures resulted in sharp declines in groundwater levels that were unable to recover to historical average levels during wet periods. Isolating the warming seasonally demonstrated the strong impact of warmer summers on water table declines, as the atmosphere increases evaporation rates, plants increase their water uptake, and soils dry out. The largest declines in water table elevations occur in the subalpine forests where conifer forests are most dense.

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“As the groundwater level drops, you lose more streamflow to the water table,” Carroll says. “When precipitation is low, the East River stops flowing for a portion of the summer. Of course, this would have dramatic effects on ecological health and agricultural irrigation.”

By including declining water table levels in the analysis, the study found that streamflow reductions nearly double when compared to simulations that examined the impacts of climate change in the region without accounting for groundwater declines. This is because of the multiple impacts occurring simultaneously: less water flows to streams from the aquifers, while more stream water drains into the soil.

The research demonstrates the need to jointly manage forest and groundwater in the Upper Colorado River Basin, as well as account for the exchange of surface and groundwater in mountain basins, to minimize streamflow declines under climate change, Carroll says.

“I think of groundwater as your savings account,” she adds. “Snowpack is like your checking account; it changes from year to year. Groundwater is a longer-term investment—it can smooth out the really wet and dry years. But if you start consistently reducing that groundwater year after year, then you can no longer modulate those extremes.”

More information:
Declining Groundwater Storage Expected to Amplify Mountain Streamflow Reductions in a Warmer World, Nature Water (2024). www.nature.com/articles/s44221-024-00239-0

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Climate change will reduce streamflow in the upper Colorado river basin as groundwater levels fall, study finds (2024, May 23)
retrieved 23 May 2024
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Colorado State football 2026 outlook from national experts

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Colorado State football 2026 outlook from national experts


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Happy college football prediction month!

July is when preseason projections hit for the upcoming season.

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The Colorado State football team is approaching the first preseason camp under new coach Jim Mora, which brings hopes of a new beginning after the Rams went 2-10 in 2025.

Here’s a look at how some of the national outlets project the Rams to fare in 2026:

Athlon Sports

The national college football magazine projection for 2026 picks CSU to finish seventh in the eight-team league.

Tight end Juice Vereen is the only Ram Athlon projects to be first-team all-conference. The magazine also lists Vereen as its No. 10 in the top transfers section.

Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny is the No. 3 player in Athlon’s top transfers, with the magazine saying, “Hejny is a former blue-chip recruit who showed promise for the Cowboys.”

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The magazine projects Boise State to beat San Diego State in the Pac-12 title game. It does not project a bowl appearance for CSU.

Phil Steele

Steele has one of the most well-known college football preview magazines. He also projects CSU seventh ahead of only Oregon State in the Pac-12.

Steele on the QB room, led by Hejny and UConn transfer K’saan Farrar: “Despite the inexperience, this unit should top last year’s stats.”

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Mora will “have to work his magic” in the offensive line room, Steele says, due to just eight career starts within the group. On the defensive line, Steele says that unit is the strength of the team “with great depth.”

Steele says Mora will “craft a run-oriented offense as (tight end) is the strength” and that the offense should “top last year’s numbers by over a TD per game.”

Overall, Steele says CSU is “stronger on both sides of the ball” and that the Rams are improved and “will win more games but it looks like a rebuilding year. Can Mora work another miracle?”

Betting odds

Some early win total betting lines for CSU include BetMGM with an over/under line of 3.5 wins for the Rams and FanDuel listing CSU with a line of 4.5 wins.

ESPN

ESPN’s FPI computer model has the Rams last in the Pac-12 with a win-loss projection of 3.6 wins and 7.5 losses. Basically, that means ESPN’s model projects between three and four regular season wins for CSU.

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How do these rankings compare to a year ago?

Offseason projections get trickier every year in this era of college football with immense roster changes each season. That’s especially true in the case of CSU ahead of the 2026 season, where a new head coach means about a 75% roster turnover.

So, projections are to be taken with caution. A look at the picks from a year ago show why.

  • Athlon: Projected CSU fifth in the Mountain West, to play for a bowl and that QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi “should compete for All-Mountain West honors.”
  • Steele: Projected CSU fifth in the MW as well.
  • Betting odds: Projected CSU to win six or seven regular season games.
  • ESPN: Projected CSU to win six or seven games.
  • Reality: In the end, CSU went 2-10, finished last in the MW, Fowler-Nicolosi was benched and eventually left the team, and coach Jay Norvell was fired.

Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.





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Colorado buyers gain options as Western Slope housing market rebalances

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Colorado buyers gain options as Western Slope housing market rebalances


Colorado’s housing market wrapped up the spring season with more inventory than in previous years, setting up an active summer for buyers — even as economic and political uncertainty continues to drive up prices.

Colorado continued its momentum toward a “balanced and sustainable environment” in May, according to a Colorado Association of Realtors’ market trends report released in June.

Demand remained steady statewide, but buyers gained more choices thanks to higher overall inventory. New listings dropped nearly 14% in May compared to the same month last year, but pending sales increased 7%. This indicates spring buyers were more active than they were in 2025 despite affordability challenges.



“Summer visitors are beginning to arrive, and buyers and sellers are testing the waters for what many expect to be a busy season,” said Dana Cottrell, president of the Altitude Realtors Association, in the report.

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Median and average sales prices rose across the state, up 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively, for the month. The median sales price for single-family homes sat at $565,000 — up $15,000 year over year — and $400,000 for condos and townhomes, which saw a modest 1.7% drop. Sellers are, for the most part, receiving close to 99% of a home’s list price, down a feeble -0.1% year over year.



Accompanying May’s higher prices was an increase in the average time a home spent on the market, jumping to 56 days from 53 in 2025.

Although sales were down slightly across the state, inventory remains significantly healthier than the historically low levels of recent years, with 4.3 months of supply statewide.

A balanced real estate market is traditionally indicated by four to six months of supply, measuring the time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the existing pace of sales. Anything less than four months would be a seller’s market (demand outpaces supply), while anything more than six would benefit buyers (supply outpaces demand).

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While a useful indicator, it can often be unreliable on its own for determining market health in rural Colorado counties due to low sales volume and fragmented property types. Months supply is often over the six-month threshold in ski towns because homes take longer to sell, and don’t automatically point to a buyer’s market.

Rural counties on the Western Slope recorded a larger supply of homes in May for the most part — ranging from 5.5 months supply in Summit County for single-family homes to 10.5 and 8.4 months supply in Pitkin and Grand counties, respectively, according to May 2026 data from the Colorado Association of Realtors.

“Sellers are facing more competition and must price strategically, while buyers see benefit from selection and negotiating power,” the report states. “Overall, the market reflects normalization, with stable pricing, improving affordability and steady buyer activity providing a more sustainable housing environment across the state.”

On the Western Slope, higher inventory brings more negotiation power for buyers, who are becoming more active compared to this time last year. Many buyers are still moving forward despite the combination of rising prices, rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.

Western Slope counties see rise in buyer activity

Similar to statewide trends, some mountain towns in Colorado’s western rural counties are seeing higher inventory compared to past years, offering more options for potential buyers.

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Grand County, for example, saw sidelined buyers begin re-entering the market after a year of waiting for opportunities to improve, according to Monica Graves, a realtor in the area. These buyers returned to the market with more negotiating power than they’ve had during the last few years.

Sellers in Grand County, on the other hand, are facing increasing competition. As more housing projects pop up around mountain towns, buyers have more inventory to choose from compared to recent spring and summer seasons. The result is steadying demand and a return to a balanced mountain real estate market, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors report.

“May 2026 felt like the market finally woke up from winter,” Graves said in the report. “Resort buyers are still attracted to the area’s year-round recreation and proximity to Denver, but they are taking longer to make decisions.”

Steamboat Springs saw a similar trend in May, with higher year-over-year inventory despite entering 2026 with fewer new listings across all property types. Single-family inventory was down 4.5% and multi-family inventory was down 21.9% compared to last year, the report states.

Sales for single-family homes were stronger to end the spring season, but homes took longer to sell, averaging 90 days on the market year-to-date.

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Summit County’s spring inventory also remained above the “extremely limited levels” seen during the pandemic years, according to Cottrell, giving buyers more options and negotiating power. Single-family home sales were up 27% with a 20% bump in listings in May 2026 compared to 2025, while multi-family homes saw a 32% drop in sales and a 15% decline in new listings.

Listings were mostly down for counties across other parts of the north-central mountains, with Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin counties seeing fewer new listings for single-family homes. All except Pitkin County saw a rise in inventory compared to last May, accompanied by a lengthening of days on market to over 100 days. Pitkin County properties spent the longest on the market before selling, rising 10% to 228 days, according to data from the Colorado Association of Realtors.

Interest is high, but what about pricing?

A single-family home is built on Boulder Ridge Road in Steamboat Springs in 2017.
Matt Stensland/Steamboat Pilot

Whether Western Slope counties saw housing prices rise or drop varied significantly from town to town. However, more expensive price tags don’t seem to be slowing buyers down heading into the summer selling season — for now.

The median price for single-family homes dropped to $965,000 in Grand County from $990,000, while the median list price in Winter Park hit $1.2 million.

“Well-priced properties moved, while homes that missed the mark on pricing tended to sit longer,” Graves said. Homes in Winter Park averaged around 51 days on market in May — lower than the statewide average — while those in Granby averaged 78 days despite significantly lower pricing. Graves added that, in places like Granby, homes offering updated finishes, views or short-term rental potential generated the strongest interest.

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Prices across Summit County went up compared to last spring. The average price for single-family homes rose 6% to $2.68 million in May 2026, while multi-family home prices saw a larger 19% jump, hitting $1.07 million.

The most expensive home sold in the county was a $13 million home in Breckenridge. This continued strength in pricing demonstrates that demand for mountain living remains firmly intact, with many buyers still moving forward despite economic uncertainty, Cottrell said.

In Steamboat Springs, multi-family homes — which matched last year’s May closings at 26 — saw median and average sales prices increase to $1.96 million and $2.24 million, respectively. Across Routt County, median sales prices jumped 62% for single-family homes and 156% for townhomes and condos, more than doubling from their May 2025 median price of $640,000 to hit $1.64 million.

Across Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin counties, changes in pricing differed by property type. All three counties recorded a drop in the median sales price for single-family homes, with the greatest drop coming from Pitkin County: 58.5% for a median price of $5.5 million in May 2026. The average sales price also dropped from $12.9 to $12.6 million, while townhomes and condos saw a 50% increase in average sales price, bumping up the cost from $2.99 million to $4.5 million.

Could rising mortgage rates scare away potential buyers?

A major market element that could influence buyer activity heading deeper into the summer season is rising mortgage rates.

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In February, Western Slope housing markets were reporting an uptick in buyer inquiries due to sinking mortgage rates. Rates had trended downward throughout the first few months of 2026, after home loan rates hit their lowest point in three years in early January.

As of July 2, 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to 6.51%, reversing what had once improved the sentiments of buyers who had been sidelined by affordability concerns. 

Rates began increasing following the start of the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising inflation has only further elevated mortgage rates, though they’ve managed to remain below the 7% reached in early 2025, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

With recent rate fluctuations, it remains to be seen whether rates will dampen buyer enthusiasm during Colorado’s peak season for buyers.





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New Colorado wildfire sparks evacuations south of Steamboat Springs

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New Colorado wildfire sparks evacuations south of Steamboat Springs


A new wildfire sparked Sunday in northern Colorado’s mountains, forcing evacuations near Stagecoach State Park in Routt County, according to county officials.

The Green Ridge fire was discovered Sunday near the Stagecoach Reservoir, according to Routt County officials. That’s roughly 17 miles south of Steamboat Springs.



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