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Historic California floods of 1861-62 featured 8 weeks of atmospheric rivers

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Historic California floods of 1861-62 featured 8 weeks of atmospheric rivers


SACRAMENTO, Calif. – Imagine Disneyland under feet of water for weeks. Rivers swelling to levels never seen before and never seen since. Days of rain stretch into weeks as floodwaters rise to epic levels.

California may have endured an onslaught of tropically-infused atmospheric river storms that filled the calendar for months at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023 and is staring at another atmospheric river this weekend, but those storms pale in comparison to the historic floods during the winter of 1861-1862.

The storms were a recipe for disaster for a young region that had recently been settled. Abraham Lincoln was president at the time, and America was embroiled in the first months of the Civil War. But out West, California’s population was bulging to about a half million in the wake of the great Gold Rush about a dozen years prior.

7 FACTS ABOUT FLOODPLAINS

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Many of the newcomers settled in flat areas near the river for water supply and ease of commerce and transportation, with mining, ranching and agriculture the main fuel for the economy. In the East, where many came from, floods occurred with thunderstorms in spring and summer, not during the fall and winter. They were also not accustomed to living near large mountain ranges that concentrate rainfall into confined riverbeds. 

So when the first of a series of likely atmospheric river-type storms hit the West Coast on Dec. 2, 1861, it was a new experience for many. 

30-foot-deep water in California’s Central Valley

The storm first struck Oregon’s Willamette Valley and southern Washington Territory, according to research by meteorologist Larry Schick. The temperature reading at Fort Vancouver in Washington Territory was 58 degrees at 7 a.m. – well above average and signaling a warm, tropically-infused atmospheric river-type storm that would have carried plenty of moisture.

Shick found the storm would dump so much rain it would flood the Willamette River with raging waters equal to the flow of the mighty Mississippi River – a river 100 times larger.  Now 162 years later, that storm still remains the flood of record for the Willamette. It’s not alone.

Schick found the storm eventually pushed south and redeveloped into another atmospheric river-type storm as it crashed into southern Oregon, then Northern California. 

SEE SOME OF THE MOST CATASTROPHIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY

The Sacramento River would jump from about 2-3 feet deep to 20 feet deep and set the first of four all-time records that winter.

HOW FLOODWATER CAN MAKE YOU VERY SICK

“These sustained and multiple, building river level peaks are rare and are testimony to the consistent magnitude of the series of storms,” Schick said.

As the end of December neared, the storm track shifted to the south, now aiming one juicy storm after another at California, while the Pacific Northwest went into an eventual deep freeze.

Storms would keep smashing into California for the next 7-8 weeks. Schick estimated that six of the storms would be categorized as at least “exceptional” atmospheric river storms.

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“Measurements on the Sacramento River indicate the first and most substantial rise in December peaking about Dec. 12,” Schick said. “The river did not recede much after that. Subsequent storms pushed it up to several more, even higher peaks into mid-January 1862. The flooding just wouldn’t quit.”

THESE ARE THE RAINIEST HOUR AND MINUTE IN AMERICAN HISTORY

Widespread flooding swamped large stretches of Central California’s valleys. In one stretch of valley that measured about 30 miles wide and 250 miles long, water depths ranged from a few inches to 30 feet in some areas. Telegraph poles were underwater.

“It’s documented that Leland Stanford, newly elected governor of California, was rowed to his inauguration in flooded downtown Sacramento during the floods,” Schick said. “Many wanted to move the capital from Sacramento to San Francisco because of the flooding. Damages to California included losing 25% of its tax base. The state teetered with bankruptcy.”

Southern California’s turn to feel the historic wrath of the atmospheric rivers

Southern California wasn’t spared as the relentless storm track moved south into the region in January 1862. The Santa Ana River in Southern California measured water flow on Jan. 22 at 318,000 cubic feet per second – about half the flow of the Mississippi River despite being a tiny fraction of its size.

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Floodwaters stretched across the Los Angeles Basin and parts of Orange County, south into San Diego.  Where Disneyland sits today would have been flooded under 2-4 feet of water for 3-6 weeks, according to Schick.

WHY CALIFORNIA IS PRIMED FOR LANDSLIDES

“Poor little Snow White would have been doing the backstroke to get to Tomorrowland,” he said.

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Pacific Northwest goes into deep freeze

Finally, some of the cold air that had been freezing the Pacific Northwest sinks down and shuts off the storm track. But not before leaving its icy mark across that region.  

The Seattle area would drop below 0 degrees, while the temp dropped to -29 degrees in Walla Walla and just 23 degrees in San Francisco. The Columbia, Willamette and Fraser rivers all froze solid. 

The final tallies 

It was the incredible amounts of water that fell from the sky that would leave the greatest mark.

Eight major rivers in the West still have the 1862 floods as their high-water marks: The Willamette, Rogue and Klamath rivers in Oregon, and the Stanislaus, American, Tuolomne, Salinas and Santa Ana rivers in California. Schick pointed out that the large floods of 1964 and 1996 on the Willamette may have reached those lofty levels if not for more modern-day flood control efforts. 

“Proves dams and reservoirs can help,” Schick said.

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7 FACTS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT FLASH FLOODS

The Salinas River caused major flooding earlier this year with the train of atmospheric rivers and reached a peak flood of 27 feet. In 1862, the river reached 32 feet.

In addition, the Colorado River’s largest flow measurement is also from 1862 at an incredible 400,000 cubic feet per second due to massive snowmelt later in the spring.

The 50-day rainfall in San Francisco during last winter’s relentless storms peaked at 20.49 inches, according to John Christy, Ph.D., with the University of Alabama. It’s a mere 63% of the 32.43 inches that fell during the 1861-62 storms.

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70 feet of snow in the Sierra?

Schick estimated that as impressive as the snowpack was in the Sierras this past winter, it was likely 10-20% more in the winter of 1861-62. California’s Mammoth Mountain had 715 inches of seasonal snowfall in 2022-23, but Schick estimates snowfall reached around 840 inches in 1862. Some 16 feet of snow fell in the Holcomb Valley on the eastern slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains in 1862.

THE SOUND OF SILENCE: WHY IT’S QUIETER AFTER A SNOWSTORM

Schick said to put that winter in perspective, take the flooding storms of this past year, then add in the major flooding storms in Northern California in 1964, 1986 and 1997 plus the major Southern California rainstorms of 1938 and 1969, and then you’ll see rivers approach or exceed those all-time records.

About 4,000 people died in the floods, and the damage cost in today’s dollars is around an estimated $3 billion, according to NOAA.

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“We must prepare, but nothing will stop a repeat of 1861-62 … or something even worse,” Schick said. “Most disturbing is that climate models suggest stronger atmospheric rivers in the future.”

WHAT DOES THE TERM ‘100-YEAR FLOOD’ ACTUALLY MEAN?

Climatologists estimate a storm of the magnitude of 1861-62 would occur about every 200 years. Schick said his recent research using paleo sediment profiles indicated another series of atmospheric rivers that hit the area in the early 1600s may have even been much worse than 1862.

“So, understanding, modeling, and preparing for repeat is really important,” Schick said. 



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Budget Rent a Car heiress assaulted and strangled during a California home invasion

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Budget Rent a Car heiress assaulted and strangled during a California home invasion


Margaux Mirkin, the 70-year-old heiress whose father founded Budget Rent a Car, was the apparent victim of a home invasion on Thursday in which she was assaulted and strangled, according to police.

Officers arrived at her Hollywood Hills home in Los Angeles and learned that the attackers had left the woman inside the residence after allegedly smashing her jaw and choking her.

Property records obtained by NBC4 confirmed Mirkin owns the residence.

Although the full extent of the theft remains unclear, police said the suspects stole cash and jewelry from the home. Neighbors said some of the jewelry belonged to the woman’s late husband, who died in a house fire two years ago.

After the incident, Kristen Stavola, executive director of We Are Laurel Canyon, spoke to NBC4.

“She’s pretty shaken up, as anyone would be after being assaulted in your home and watching your valuables get stolen and driven away,” Stavola said.

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An individual who did not want to be identified said the street is “dark” and a “dead-end street.”

“Not many people are on it, so of course it’s like the perfect street for a break-in,” the neighbor said.

NBC4 reported that the robbers dropped a bag containing a large amount of jewelry while leaving the home. When a neighbor saw them and shined a flashlight in their direction, they took off.

The police department’s robbery-homicide division is now managing the investigation.



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The state benefiting most from California’s stunning exodus

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The state benefiting most from California’s stunning exodus


Nevada — known for its vast deserts and audacious gamblers — is luring Californians away from the Golden State at a higher rate than any other.

The Silver State leeched a net 81 Californians per 10,000 residents each year from California between 2016 and 2025, as California undergoes a mass exodus of residents leaving, according to a report.

The report, titled “Priced Out: RELOCATION AMIDST CALIFORNIA’S AFFORDABILITY CRISIS,” was released on March 31 by the nonpartisan California Policy Lab.

Californians move to Nevada at a higher rate than even Texas, the report notes.

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A large white Atlas moving truck parked on a residential street in a California suburb. Simone – stock.adobe.com
Aerial view of suburban Las Vegas neighborhood with houses and streets. Wirestock – stock.adobe.com
Panoramic aerial view of Las Vegas, USA, with the city and mountains in the background. Alexander – stock.adobe.com

“Nevada is the standout,” the report says. “News reports often mention Texas, but that is misleading. The most accurate measure of popularity adjusts for state population and shows a clear pattern: proximity reigns. Californians most often leave for nearby states, and California also welcomes new residents from neighboring states most frequently.”

Nevada is a much cheaper state for U.S. residents to live in than California. It has no state income tax, unlike California, and housing prices, along with gas prices, are also lower. California’s average regular gas price was $5.88 on Friday while Nevada’s was $4.99, an 89-cent difference.

 Evan White, a co-author of the study, says the Californians are leaving for more affordable states.

“The price tag has gone up on the California Dream, and many families are leaving the state for more affordable places,” White, the Executive Director of the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley, said. “The difference these moves make is stark.  Their destination neighborhoods are half as expensive and they end up much more likely to own a home within just a few years.”

The report shows that out-of-state movers pay an average of $672 less per month on housing costs, and home prices are 48% lower. Former California residents are about 48% more likely to own a home in their new state.

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Entire view of a residential area from Double Peak Park in San Marcos, California Jason – stock.adobe.com

Higher-income Californians are also leaving at increasingly higher rates, the report said. The share of higher-income Californians leaving has increased from 34% to 40% since the pandemic.

“Our report shows that people who leave California are increasingly leaving from higher-income neighborhoods,” co-author Dr. Brett Fischer, Researcher at the California Policy Lab, said. “These movers are, on average, in a weaker financial position than their neighbors, and may be moving to attain the quality of life they see their neighbors enjoying but they cannot afford.”

From 2010 to 2024, nearly 10 million people left California. The state is considered one of the most expensive states in the nation.

Idaho, Oregon, and Arizona are the next largest net recipients of Californians on a per-capita basis, the report says.

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Fuel shortages from the Iran war have spread to Europe, but the pain is hitting California and the West Coast as well—and help is years away | Fortune

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Fuel shortages from the Iran war have spread to Europe, but the pain is hitting California and the West Coast as well—and help is years away | Fortune


Europe is facing more widespread fuel shortages heading into the summer as the war in the Middle East drags on, but shortfalls—especially for jet fuel—will soon spread to California and the broader West Coast as the global energy supply shock ripples across the world.

While the U.S. leads the world in crude oil production, California is not able to enjoy the bounty as much as the rest of the country. The Golden State—the fourth-largest economy in the world—essentially operates as an island sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean on one side and mountainous terrain on the other. That makes it difficult and expensive to build oil and fuel pipelines. A tougher regulatory environment and heightened fuel standards have also made the state’s refineries less economical over the years.

The bottom line is California must import a lot of its oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Asia—a region that is itself currently struggling with shortages because of its reliance on Middle Eastern supplies.

And, in something of a perfect storm of unfortunate timing, the Iran war coincides with the recent shuttering of the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery and the April closure of Valero Energy’s Benicia refinery near San Francisco. The two complexes combined for nearly 20% of California’s oil-refining capacity. Valero also is weighing the future of its Wilmington refinery near Los Angeles.

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“It’s real terrible timing for California to see the loss of two refineries at a time when Asia is struggling with oil supplies of its own,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

“If we don’t have some concrete [peace] deal here in the next three weeks, then I’m really nervous for the West Coast this summer in terms of jet fuel,” De Haan told Fortune. “That’s not going to be great for California’s economy.”

Norse Atlantic Airways announced this week the cancelation of all its summer flights from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Delta Air Lines is canceling a handful of U.S. flights for now from Detroit to New York. Air Canada cut some flights to New York. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in his April 22 earnings call that United is raising fares up to 20% and proactively canceling flights at off-peak times and days. And struggling Spirit Airlines—pushed over the cliff by the spike in fuel prices—may need a federal bailout to survive.

The biggest headline in Europe this week was German airliner Lufthansa axing 20,000 flights through October.

“It’s not so much gasoline supply on the West Coast that I’d be worried about yet, but it’s jet fuel out of LAX, San Francisco, Seattle, and then it’s diesel,” De Haan said, arguing that nationwide reductions, especially of new flight routes, are likely in order to conserve fuel. “I would look for a lot of route cancellations potentially this summer.”

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Refineries primarily churn out gasoline to meet passenger vehicle demand, so supply shortages of refined products typically hit jet fuel first and then diesel. Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Nevada, Hawaii, and Alaska all stand to be among the most impacted as well.

Plans for new fuel and refined products pipelines into California are underway, including from Phillips 66, but the earliest those would come online is 2029.

The California Energy Commission told Fortune that jet fuel stocks remain adequate and within historic norms, although supplies are admittedly tight. For West Coast travelers, the near-term risks are sustained higher prices and airline schedule adjustments—not the physical shortfalls that Europe is facing.

But would that remain the case in June if the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint is still blocked? “Our analysis is thorough and ongoing, but we can’t provide a definitive answer on that kind of forecasting,” the CEC said.

One partially saving grace is the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily waive the 106-year-old Jones Act, which requires cargo ships moving between U.S. ports to be U.S. built, flagged, and manned, reducing the number of vessels available to move crude oil and refined products between domestic ports.

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The waiver allowing more ships, for instance, to move fuel from the U.S. Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal and up to California to help alleviate shortfalls. The CEC confirmed the waiver is bringing incremental supply to the state.

Looking ahead for relief

While the White House previously touted the Jones Act waiver as a move to lessen the spikes in fuel prices—that impact is minimal—the bigger difference it’s making is the eased logistical movement of supplies to needier domestic areas.

A White House official said California and Alaska count among the biggest beneficiaries of jet fuel deliveries from the Jones Act waiver. And the 60-day waiver could be extended.

Otherwise, California must compete internationally for more expensive and increasingly scarce fuel imports from Asia. The state leans on South Korea, Singapore, Japan, India, and the Middle East for more of its oil and fuel.

“The risk is California has to compete on price to get those barrels, and what’s an already expensive market becomes really expensive,” said oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm.

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While the rest of the country is worried about fuel prices and not physical shortages, California is a “different animal,” Pickering said, “The risk in California is both its price and its availability. And, because availability is tough, the price goes up even more.”

Already, California’s gasoline prices are 45% above the national average. The national average on April 23 for a gallon of regular unleaded was $4.03, while it’s a U.S.-leading $5.85 in California. And there’s a $2 gap between diesel prices in California compared to the national average, $7.49 per gallon versus $5.47.

Despite the geographical and regulatory challenges of building new fuel pipelines to California, several projects have popped up to help fill the gaps left by the refinery closures.

Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan plan to build the Western Gateway Pipeline System from Texas to Phoenix and southern California. Pipeline developers ONEOK and HF Sinclair are both weighing competing projects.

But the Western Gateway project isn’t slated for completion until 2029, so bridging that gap will prove to be the challenge, De Haan said.

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“It’s great news for California because they’ll have better-connected markets,” De Haan said. “California will be a little bit less of a petro island.”

Kinder Morgan CEO Kim Dang said on the company’s earnings call this week that the war in the Middle East highlights the need for the project.

“California has to import some of its supply, and that makes it subject to the variability in global markets,” Dang said. “Instead of bringing in a fair amount of product over the water, they’ll now be bringing in supply from Texas and from the eastern United States. The other thing it does is it serves the Phoenix market, which is also right now reliant on the California refining capacity.

“I think it’s a great solution for California and for Arizona to be able to access domestic supply, as opposed to having to be reliant on the international market,” Dang added.

In the immediacy though, Pickering fears the world is still “dangerously complacent” about the war and the greatest energy supply shock in history. Oil and fuel shortages are almost guaranteed at least through the end of this year, and Pickering doesn’t see a peace deal occurring overnight.

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“If they don’t [make a deal], in a month or two, the problems that we’re seeing in Asia are going to be everywhere,” Pickering said. And, if June is when shortages really kick in, well, “June is a day closer every day.”



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