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Commentary: Key Questions for November from the California Primary Vote

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Commentary: Key Questions for November from the California Primary Vote


An earlier version of this commentary was published by Carnegie California on March 28, 2024.

What did we learn from the California primary vote on Super Tuesday? With results now certified by California’s secretary of state, it’s an opportune time to assess the official outcome and look ahead to November. The primary vote highlights several concerning trends in the condition of the state’s democracy and offers a preview of the major role that the nation’s most populous state will play in the November general election.

Will enthusiasm and turnout remain low?

Of the state’s 22 million registered voters, 7.7 million (or 35 percent) cast ballots in the primary contest. Voter turnout is frequently a political wild card, and this vote was no exception. In PPIC’s February survey, Californians sent mixed signals by affirming the importance of voting while expressing a lack of enthusiasm. Despite the state’s efforts to increase political participation—requiring all counties to mail every registered voter a ballot and moving the primary date from June to March—Super Tuesday’s turnout remained low. By comparison, 47 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the March 2020 Primary, and 48 percent voted in the June 2016 Primary.

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The state’s efforts to encourage voter participation will need some rethinking, with special attention to regions where turnout was below the state average, such as the Central Valley, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire. These regions include the competitive races that will help to determine the party in control of the US House of Representatives. The March primary also forebodes a November turnout that may underperform when compared with the record 17.8 million ballots cast in the November 2020 election.

What matters in a presidential re-run election?

The lack of drama in the presidential contest likely contributed to the low turnout in the California primary, whose results mirrored other states. President Joe Biden won with 89 percent in the Democratic primary, and former president Donald Trump won with 79 percent in the Republican primary. These results are aligned with the findings of the February PPIC survey. Biden is expected to win in California in the general election, as Democrats outnumber Republicans 47 percent to 24 percent, GOP candidates have not won a statewide race since 2006, and Biden previously defeated Trump by a wide margin.

Two political wild cards raised by the California presidential primaries: the numbers and makeup of partisans not voting in the March primary who will cast their ballots in November, and whether the 29 percent of voters who are not registered Republicans or Democrats will opt for third-party candidates, continue to lean Democrat, or not vote.

Is it time to revisit the top-two senate primary system?

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The March senate primary raises issues about the unintended consequences of the top-two primary system. In this system, which was approved in a 2010 ballot initiative, voters cast primary ballots for all candidates in statewide and legislative races, not just those in their registered party, and the top two vote-getters appear on the general election ballot. The March senate primary was the most blatant example to date of a Democratic front-runner deliberately helping a Republican candidate to qualify for the top-two general election, knowing that any Republican has a slim-to-nonexistent chance of winning a statewide race. The primary ballot listed twenty-seven Senate candidates, but only Democrat Adam Schiff, Democrat Katie Porter, Republican Steve Garvey, and Democrat Barbara Lee were likely contenders, with Schiff and Garvey advancing. Schiff’s campaign aired a flurry of late commercials for Garvey, and Porter came in third. The political gamesmanship of a Democrat working to run against a Republican in the fall may increase cynicism at a time when some voters are feeling distrustful of democracy and elections. After a decade of experience with the open primary, it may be time for California to reconsider the process.

Where will US House races matter most?

California voters eliminated legislative gerrymandering when they voted for a citizens’ independent redistricting commission more than a decade ago. The primary outcomes for the state’s fifty-two US House seats still include many lopsided victories that mirror California’s red and blue regions and the inland and coastal partisan divides. In addition, the top two winners in every legislative primary race are either Democrat or Republican, with no third-party or independent candidates on the November ballot. The March primary results in the competitive House districts point to four tight races in the Central Valley and Orange County. These races include both Republican and Democratic incumbents and an open seat that will have national interest this fall, and all will help to determine the party that controls a closely divided Congress.

What does Prop 1’s fate portend for fall ballot measures?

The single measure that was placed on the March primary ballot with bipartisan legislative support passed by a slim margin: 50.2 percent yes, 49.8 percent no. Proposition 1, the government’s response to broad public recognition of major problems facing California, includes a $6.38 billion state bond for mental health treatment and funding for homelessness programs.

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There were warning signs in the February PPIC survey that the Proposition 1 vote could be close. In the survey, 48 percent said that now was a “bad time” to issue this state bond, and 50 percent said they disapproved of Governor Gavin Newsom, who championed the measure and made the final pitch for yes in television commercials. The Proposition 1 vote is consistent with the narrow defeat of a state education bond in the March 2020 primary.

In addition, the vote is a reminder that many Californians are fiscal conservatives when it comes to state spending. The latest proof is the mix of red and blue counties where Proposition 1 had difficulty gaining traction. The measure is a wakeup call for legislators’ plans for other state bond measures, and a citizens’ initiative that would limit state and local tax increases may be on the November ballot.



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Dramatic explosion caught on video destroys homes, injures six, officials say

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Dramatic explosion caught on video destroys homes, injures six, officials say


A natural gas line leak triggered a dramatic explosion that destroyed a Bay Area home on Thursday, injuring six people and damaging several other properties.

At least one person was inside the home before it was leveled in the blast. The individual managed to escape without injury, but six others were hurt, including three who suffered serious injuries, Alameda County Fire Department spokesperson Cheryl Hurd said.

“It was a chaotic scene,” Hurd said. “There was fire and debris and smoke everywhere, power lines down, people self-evacuated from the home. … Someone was on the sidewalk with severe burns.”

The leak started after a third-party construction crew working Thursday morning in the 800 block of East Lewelling Boulevard in Hayward struck a Pacific Gas and Electric underground natural gas line, according to a statement from the utility.

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Fire crews were first dispatched to the scene at 7:46 a.m. after PG&E reported a suspected natural gas leak, Hurd said. PG&E officials were already on scene when fire engines arrived, and reportedly told firefighters their assistance was not needed, Hurd said.

Utility workers attempted to isolate the damaged line, but gas was leaking from multiple locations. Workers shut off the flow of gas at about 9:25 a.m. About ten minutes later an explosion occurred, PG&E said in a statement.

Fire crews were called back to the same address, where at least 75 firefighters encountered heavy flames and a thick column of smoke. Surrounding homes sustained damage from the blast and falling debris. Three buildings were destroyed on two separate properties and several others were damaged, according to fire officials.

Six people were taken to Eden Medical Center, including three with severe injuries requiring immediate transport. Officials declined to comment on the nature of their injuries.

Video captured from a Ring doorbell affixed to a neighboring house showed an excavator digging near the home moments before the explosion. The blast rattled nearby homes, shattered windows and sent construction crews running.

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Initially, authorities suspected that two people were missing after the blast. That was determined not to be the case, Hurd said.

“They brought in two cadaver dogs looking to see if anyone was still trapped under the rubble, and the dogs cleared everything,” Hurd said.

Brittany Maldonado had just returned from dropping off her son at school Thursday morning when she noticed a PG&E employee checking out her gas meter. He informed her that there was an issue and they had to turn off the gas to her home.

She didn’t think twice about it.

“About 45 minutes later, everything shakes,” she told reporters at the scene. “It was a big boom…first we think someone ran into our house—a truck or something—and then we look outside and it’s like a war zone.”

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The house across the street was leveled, Maldonado said. When she watched the footage from her Ring camera she said it looked as though a bomb inside the home had gone off.

“I’m very glad that no one lost their lives,” she said.

Officials with the Sheriff’s Office, PG&E and the National Transportation Safety Board are continuing to investigate the circumstances that led to the explosion.

In 2010, a PG&E pipeline ruptured in a San Bruno neighborhood, destroying 38 homes and killing eight people. California regulators later approved a $1.6-billion fine against the utility for violating state and federal pipeline safety standards.

Staff writer Hannah Fry contributed to this report

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Neil Thwaites promoted to ‘Vice President of Global Sales & California Commercial Performance’ for Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines – Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Air

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Neil Thwaites promoted to ‘Vice President of Global Sales & California Commercial Performance’ for Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines – Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Air


Thwaites will lead the strategy and execution of all sales activities for the combined Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines team. His responsibilities include growing indirect revenue on Alaska’s expanding international and domestic network, as well as expanding Atmos for Business, a new program designed for small- and medium-sized companies.

Thwaites joined Alaska Airlines in January 2022 as regional vice president in California. Since stepping into the role, Thwaites has significantly sharpened the airline’s focus and scale in key markets and communities across the state, strengthening Alaska’s position as we continue to grow in California. He will continue to be based at the company’s California offices in Burlingame. The moves take effect Dec. 13, with Thwaites also continuing to lead his current California commercial planning and performance function in addition to Global Sales.

Prior to Alaska, Thwaites worked in multiple positions within the airline industry, including a decade holding roles in London, New York, and Los Angeles for British Airways (a fellow oneworld member); most recently as ‘VP, Sales – Western USA’, where he was responsible for market development strategy and indirect revenue for both British Airways and Iberia across the western U.S.

Thwaites is originally from the United Kingdom and graduated from the University of Brighton with a double honors degree in Business Administration & Law.

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Tiny tracker following monarch butterflies during California migration

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Tiny tracker following monarch butterflies during California migration


SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — When this monarch butterfly hits the sky it won’t be traveling alone. In fact, an energetic team of researchers will be following along with a revolutionary technology that’s already unlocking secrets that could help the entire species survive.

“I’ve described this technology as a spaceship compared to the wheel, like using a using a spaceship compared to the invention of the wheel. It’s teaching us so, so much more,” says Ray Moranz, Ph.D., a pollinator conservation specialist with the Xerces Society.

Moranz is part of a team that’s been placing tiny tracking devices on migrating monarchs. The collaboration is known as Project Monarch Science. It leverages solar powered radio tags that are so light they don’t affect the butterfly’s ability to fly. And they’re allowing researchers to track the Monarch’s movements in precise detail. With some 400 tags in place, the group already been able to get a nearly real time picture of monarch migrations east of the Rockies, with some populations experiencing dramatic twists and turns before making to wintering grounds in Mexico.

“They’re trying to go southward to Mexico. They can’t fight the winds. Instead, some of them were letting themselves be carried 50 miles north, 100 miles north, 200 miles the wrong way, which we are all extremely alarmed by and for good reason. Some of these monarchs, their migration was delayed by two or three weeks.

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According to estimates, migrating monarch populations have dropped by roughly 80% or more across the country. And the situation with coastal species here in California is especially dire. Blake Barbaree is a senior scientist with Point Blue Conservation Science. He and his colleagues are tracking Northern California populations now clustered around Santa Cruz.

MORE: Monarch butterflies to be listed as a threatened species in US

“This year, there’s it’s one of the lowest, populations recorded in the winter. And the core zones have been in Santa Cruz County and up in Marin County. So we’ve undertaken an effort to understand how the monarchs are really using these different groves around Santa Cruz by tagging some in the state parks around town,” Barbaree explains.

He says being able to track individual monarchs could help identify microhabitats in the area that help them survive, ranging from backyard pollinator gardens to protected open space to forest groves.

“So we’re really getting a great insight to how reliant they are on these big trees, but also the surrounding area and people’s even backyards. And then along the way around the coast, how they’re transitioning among some of these groves. And we’re looking for some of the triggers for those movements. Right. Why are they doing this and what’s what’s driving them to do that? So those questions are still a little bit further out as we get to analyze some more some more of the data,” he believes.

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And that data is getting even more precise. The tags, developed by Cellular Tracking Technologies, can be monitored from dedicated listening stations. But the company is also able to crowdsource signals detected by cellphone networks on phones with Bluetooth connectivity and location access activated. And they’ve also helped develop an app that allows volunteers, citizen scientists, and the general public to track and report Monarch locations themselves using their smartphones.

CEO Michael Lanzone says the initial response has been overwhelming.

MORE: New butterflies introduced in SF’s Presidio after species went extinct in 1940s

“We were super surprised to see 3,000 people download the monarch app. It’s like, you know, but people really love monarchs. There’s something that people just relate to,” says Lanzone who like many staffers at Cellular Tracking Technologies, has a background in wildlife ecology.

A number of groups are pushing to have the monarchs designated nationally as a threatened species. If that ultimately happens, researchers believe the tracking data could help put better protections in place.

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“They’re highly vulnerable to, you know, some of the different things that that that we as humans do around using pesticides and also potentially cutting, you know, cutting down trees for various reasons. Sometimes they’re for safety and sometimes it’s, you know, for development. But so having an understanding of how we can do those things more sensibly and protect the places that they need the most,” says Point Blue’s Barbaree.

And it’s happening with the help of researchers, citizen scientists, and a technology weighing no more than a few grains of rice.

The smartphone app is called Project Monarch Science. You can download it for free and begin tracking.

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