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Can Donald Trump break his California record? What polls show before rally

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Can Donald Trump break his California record? What polls show before rally


As former President Donald Trump prepares to hold a rally near Coachella, California, on October 12, recent polling data shows he could break his own record for futility in the Golden State.

At a news conference in September while visiting his National Golf Club in Ranchos Palos Verdes for a fundraiser, Trump called California “a mess” and blasted Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom over their handling of immigration, crime and local elections.

How to Watch Trump’s Coachella Rally

Trump is scheduled to speak Saturday at 5 p.m. PST, with doors opening at 12 p.m. at Calhoun Ranch near Coachella.

The event is open to the public, with online registration available through Trump’s campaign website.

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“Under Kamala Harris and her dangerous Democrat allies like Tim Walz, the notorious ‘California Dream’ has turned into a nightmare for everyday Americans,” states the campaign email announcing the event. “Californians are suffocating under rising prices for everything from groceries to housing, thanks to Kamalanomics.”

Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Monday for comment.

Trump’s coming appearance at Calhoun Ranch marks his first public event in the Coachella Valley since a private fundraiser in 2020.

Trump’s Polling in California

According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average for California, updated on October 7, 2024, Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by a substantial margin. The data shows Harris leading with 59.7 percent support compared to Trump’s 34.8 percent, giving the incumbent a 24.9 percentage point advantage.

The most recent survey included in FiveThirtyEight’s average, conducted by the University of Southern California and California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy from September 12-25, shows Harris leading Trump 58 percent to 36 percent among 1,685 likely voters.

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An ActiVote survey conducted from August 21 to September 21 among 400 likely voters found Harris leading Trump 64 percent to 36 percent. A Capitol Weekly poll from September 11-16, sampling 1,054 likely voters, showed Harris ahead 59 percent to 34 percent.

California’s political landscape has shifted dramatically over the past few decades. Once a reliable Republican stronghold in presidential elections from 1952 through 1988, except for Barry Goldwater’s loss in 1964, the state has become increasingly Democratic.

Trump’s performance in the 2016 election set a low bar for Republican candidates in California. He received 31.62 percent of the vote, the worst showing for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1856. Hillary Clinton won California with 61.73 percent of the vote, a margin of 30.11 percent and a vote difference of over 4.2 million.

Despite California being the most populous state, it only delivered Trump his third-largest vote count in 2016, behind Florida and Texas. Clinton’s victory marked the first time a Democrat had won Orange County since 1936, and only the fourth time in U.S. history that a Republican was elected president without carrying California.

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won California by approximately 30 points over Donald Trump, marking the fourth consecutive presidential election where the Democratic nominee secured over 60 percent of the vote in the state.

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With 54 electoral votes, California remains a crucial prize in presidential elections, despite losing one electoral vote after the 2020 Census. The state still commands more than 10 percent of the total 538 electoral votes.

Trump’s visit is already drawing attention from backers and opponents. In 2020, his fundraiser in Rancho Mirage attracted dozens of supporters to greet him at Palm Springs International Airport, while hundreds of foes held a counterprotest near the venue.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference at Trump National Golf Club Los Angeles in Rancho Palos Verdes, California, on September 13. Trump returns to California for a rally…




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California schools seeing fewer kids as birth rates fall

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California schools seeing fewer kids as birth rates fall


California saw a decline in public school enrollment for an eighth consecutive year, amid falling birth rates and the migration of families with children out of state.

Why It Matters

Declining enrollment in California has been an issue since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is an indicator of some of the issues facing the state, including falling birth rates, high housing costs pushing families out of the state and lasting impacts from the pandemic

On top of this, lower enrollment has major financial and social consequences for California’s public schools.

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What To Know

In the academic year 2024-25, California schools had a total of 5,806, 221 students enrolled, according to data released by California’s Department of Education on Wednesday. This is a 7 percent decrease from the 6,235,520 recorded a decade ago.

There is also more than a 20 percent difference between the size of the number of students leaving school (488,295) and those starting it (384,822).

Stanford University education professor and economist Thomas Dee told The Los Angeles Times: “These losses largely reflect the fact that there are now substantially fewer school-age children in the state.

“This demographic decline is due to both lower birth rates and net migration of families with children out of California — e.g., due to housing costs and the growth of work-from-home employment.”

Indeed, California, like much of the rest of the United States, has a declining birth rate.

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In 2023, the most recent year for which the California Department of Public Health records birth data, there were 400,129 births. This is down almost 100,000 births from a decade ago, when there were 494,392 births.

A file photo of John Marshall High School in Los Angeles, taken on March 13, 2020, shows students waiting outside after being let out early following an announcement of a district-wide closure caused by the…


AP

The state’s fertility rate was 49 per 100,000 residents in 2023—down from 60.6 per 100,000 residents in 2013.

However, California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond stressed that there has been growth in transitional kindergarten (TK) enrollment—a new grade that serves four-year-olds.

What People Are Saying

Thomas Dee also spoke about “the students who fled public schools at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic who still have not returned.”

“The public school enrollment losses also reflect an enduring increase in private and home-school enrollment,” he added.

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Tony Thurmond said: “While we have more work to do, the dramatic growth in TK is inspiring and shows that providing rigorous and quality programs can be a key ingredient to bringing more families back to our schools.”

What Happens Next

It remains to be seen whether enrollment will continue to decline in California and what impacts that will have.



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California to sue over U.S. Senate revoking state’s EV mandate, strict emission standards

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California to sue over U.S. Senate revoking state’s EV mandate, strict emission standards



California to sue over U.S. Senate revoking state’s EV mandate, strict emission standards – CBS Sacramento

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California is fighting back a day after the U.S. Senate voted to put the brakes on the state’s clean vehicle policies.

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Democrats warn GOP is weakening filibuster as Senate moves to nullify California’s electric vehicle mandate | CNN Politics

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Democrats warn GOP is weakening filibuster as Senate moves to nullify California’s electric vehicle mandate | CNN Politics




CNN
 — 

The Republican-led Senate moved Wednesday to overturn key Biden-era waivers allowing California to set its own vehicle emissions, a major blow to that state’s effort to regulate pollution from cars and trucks that could have broad environmental impacts for the rest of the country.

And they will do it bypassing the 60-vote threshold typically needed to approve such a measure, infuriating Democrats who warned Republicans — despite their promises not to — were weakening the legislative filibuster. Republican leaders denied that was their intent and vowed to preserve the filibuster forever.

Republicans were livid when at the end of former President Joe Biden’s term, the Environmental Protection Agency greenlit California’s plan to phase out the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035, shifting the state towards electric vehicles. Republicans say the California plan will hurt the US economy and impact the rest of the country because other states follow its emissions rules.

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In response, they readied action under the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to claw back agency rules without needing 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.

Tensions have built for weeks as Senate Republicans deliberated behind closed doors about whether to push the measure through despite a finding from the House’s Government Accountability Office that the CRA could not be used to nullify the California emissions waiver. Senate Republicans don’t believe the GAO has the authority to determine that.

The Senate parliamentarian — the neutral arbiter of Senate procedure — deferred to the GAO viewpoint. Despite that, the Senate took a series of votes to put it on a track to pass these CRAs in the coming days.

California has for many years set its own emission standards separate from the federal government. For decades, federal law has granted California the authority to do so, but the waiver has become a partisan football in recent years. President Donald Trump revoked that authority during his first term in 2019, before Biden reinstated it in 2022.

In one of the Biden administration’s last major actions on climate, the EPA in 2024 finalized California’s waiver – effectively greenlighting the state’s plan to phase out sales of new gas vehicles by 2035, the first regulation of its kind in the US.

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California’s vehicle regulations matter a great deal to the auto industry because close to 20 other states and the District of Columbia have adopted them. And they have a big impact on climate policy; emissions from vehicles are one of the largest sources of planet-warming pollution in the US.

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso called California’s efforts a “fantasyland” that will hurt ranchers and farmers in his home state of Wyoming.

“California’s EV mandates ban the sale of gas-powered cars and trucks. They threaten the freedom of every American to choose what they drive,” he said on the floor. “EVs currently make up 7 percent of the U.S. market. Even in California, they account for only 20 percent of vehicle sales. And sales are stalling. Yet California’s radical mandates require 35 percent of all vehicle sales to be electric by 2026 – 6 months from now. By 2035, it jumps to 100 percent.”

Senate Democrats have argued that not accepting the parliamentarian’s guidance sets a dangerous precedent, and they are particularly concerned that the GOP may do it again as she sets some of the perimeters of what will be allowed in the massive tax, spending cuts and immigration reconciliation bill moving through Congress now.

“It’s going nuclear, plain and simple. It’s overruling the parliamentarian. And second, what goes around comes around,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Tuesday, referring to the so-called nuclear option, which is when the majority party changes Senate rules on a party line vote instead of 67-vote supermajority typically required to make a change.

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Democrats insist that the Californian regulations were created as “waivers” under the Clean Air Act, meaning that they are not considered “rules” that can be overturned through the CRA. The GAO — which weighed in on the issue when that chamber passed these CRAs recently with bipartisan support — agreed.

However, Senate Republicans insist that they are not defying the parliamentarian and have said that Democrats’ concern for weakening the filibuster is hypocritical, coming from the party that has expressed opposition to the filibuster’s role in recent years.

“The only people that have attempted to get rid of the legislative filibuster – the Democrats – every single one up there that’s popping off and spouting off has voted, literally, to get rid of the legislative filibuster,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters at a press conference on Tuesday.

“This is a novel and narrow issue that deals with the Government Accountability Office and whether or not they ought to be able to determine what is a rule and what isn’t, or whether the administration and the Congress ought to be able to make that decision,” he added.

Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, echoed Schumer’s concerns in a statement ahead of Wednesday’s vote.

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“If Senate Republicans force a vote on the California Clean Air Act Waivers, they set a precedent that will allow Congress to overturn nearly any agency decision nationwide,” he warned. “I urge my colleagues to reject this gross overreach.”

“By opening this door, Republicans threaten to destroy our permitting and regulatory system, leading to higher energy costs for Americans and making it impossible for new developments to come online. Indeed, nearly every major and minor project the federal government touches could be stalled, creating significant uncertainty if not complete chaos. That is not what the American people want, and it cannot be what Senate Republicans want, either,” continued Heinrich.



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