World
EU membership, seizing Russia’s money needed to rebuild Ukraine: Analysts
Ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may soon be under way, but Ukraine’s economic recovery will be hobbled unless the European Union fast-tracks the war-torn country’s membership and provides hundreds of billions of euros’ worth of insurance and investment, experts tell Al Jazeera.
“I think what Ukraine needs is some kind of future where it will have a stable and defendable border, and that will only come, I would think, with EU membership,” historian Phillips O’Brien told Al Jazeera.
The US administration of President Donald Trump last month handed Ukraine and Russia a ceasefire proposal that excluded future NATO membership of Ukraine, satisfying a key Kremlin demand and leaving Ukraine without the security guarantees it seeks.
“What business is actually going to take the risk of getting involved there economically?” asked O’Brien. “With NATO off the table, I think if Ukraine is going to have a chance of rebuilding and being integrated into Europe, it will have to be through a fast-tracked EU membership.”
That membership is by no means assured, although the European Commission started negotiations in record time last June, and Ukraine has the support of EU heavyweights like France and Germany.
If Ukraine becomes an EU member, it would still face a devastated economy requiring vast investment.
The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) estimated that between Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and November last year, Moscow’s onslaught had destroyed $170bn of infrastructure, with the housing, transport and energy sectors most affected.
That figure did not include the damage incurred in almost a decade of war in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk since 2014 or the loss of 29 percent of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) from the invasion in 2022. The estimate also did not put a value on the loss of almost a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, which Russia now occupies.
That territory contains almost half of Ukraine’s unexploited mineral wealth, worth an estimated $12.4 trillion, according to SecDev, a Canadian geopolitical risk firm.
It also does not include some types of reconstruction costs, such as chemical decontamination and mine-clearing.
The World Bank put the cost of infrastructure damages slightly higher this year, at $176bn, and predicts the cost of reconstruction and recovery at about $525bn over 10 years.
‘The Kremlin has certainly looted occupied territory’
Economic war has been part of Russia’s strategy since the invasion of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, argued Maximilian Hess, a risk analyst and Eurasia expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies.
“The Kremlin has certainly looted occupied territory, including for coking coal, agricultural products, and iron,” Hess told Al Jazeera.
The KSE has estimated Russia stole half a million tonnes of grain, included in the $1.9bn damages bill to the agricultural sector.
Using long-range rocketry, Russia also targeted industrial hubs not under its control.
Ukraine inherited a series of factories from the Soviet Union, including the Kharkiv Tractor Plant, the Zaporizhia Automobile Plant, the Pivdenmash rocket manufacturer in Dnipro and massive steel plants.
“All were targeted by Russian forces,” wrote Hess in his recent book, Economic War. “Russia’s attacks were, of course, primarily aimed at devastating the Ukrainian economy and weakening its ability and will to fight, but they also raised the cost to the West of supporting Ukraine in the conflict, something the Kremlin hoped would lead to reduced support for Kyiv.”
Through occupation and targeting, Russia managed to deprive Ukraine of a flourishing metallurgy sector.
According to the United States Geological Survey, metallurgical production decreased by 66.5 percent as a result of the war.
That is a vast loss, considering that Ukraine once produced almost a third of the iron ore in Europe, Russia and Central Eurasia, half of the region’s manganese ore and a third of its titanium. It remains the only producer of uranium in Europe, an important resource in the continent’s quest for greater energy autonomy.
Ukraine’s claims to have built a $20bn defence industrial base with allied help, a rare wartime economic success story.
That can make up for the losses in metallurgy, Hess said, “but only in part and in different regions of the country from which those mining and metallurgical ones were concentrated. Boosting [metallurgical activities] in places like Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and ideally territory ultimately freed from Russian occupation, will be necessary to win the peace.”
Trump’s minerals deal, and other instruments
Weeks ago, Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum of intent to jointly exploit Ukraine’s mineral wealth.
Ukraine committed to putting half the proceeds from its metallurgical activities into a Reconstruction Fund, but experts doubted the notion that mineral wealth can rebuild Ukraine.
“Projects have a long launch period … from five to 10 years,” Maxim Fedoseienko, head of strategic projects at the KSE Institute, told Al Jazeera. “You need to make documentation, environmental impacts assessment, and after that, you can also need three years to build this mine.”
The US and EU might invest in such mines, Fedoseienko said, because “we have more than 24 kinds of materials from the EU list of critical [raw] materials,” but they would only contribute to the Ukrainian economy if investments were equitable.
Trump presented the minerals deal as payback for billions in military aid.
“There’s nothing remotely fair about it. The aid was not given to be paid back,” said O’Brien.
As Fedoseienko put it, “It is not fair if everyone will say, ‘OK, we will help you in a time of war, so you are owned [by] us.’”
In addition to fairness, Ukraine needs money. Some of that needs to come in the form of insurance.
A state-backed war-risk insurance formula Kyiv reached with the United Kingdom in 2023, for example, brought bulk carriers back to Ukraine’s ports and defeated Russian efforts to blockade Ukrainian grain exports.
As a result, Ukraine exported 57.5 million tonnes of agricultural goods in 2023-2024, and was on track to export 77 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 marketing year, which ends in June, its agriculture ministry said.
“There needs to be a substantial expansion of public insurance products in particular, as well as a move to seize frozen Russian assets,” said Hess.
Seizing some $300bn in Russian central bank money held in the EU was deemed controversial, but the measure is now receiving support.
“The Russian state has committed these war crimes, has broken international law, has done this damage to Ukraine – that actually becomes a just way of helping Ukraine rebuild,” said O’Brien. “[Europeans] have a very strong case for this, but they, right now, lack the political will to do it.”
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has already repeatedly asked Europe to use the money for Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.
What Europeans have done in the meantime is going some way towards rebuilding Ukraine.
Some $300m in interest payments proceeding from Russian assets are diverted to reconstruction each year.
A European Commission programme provides 9.3 billion euros ($10.5bn) of financial support designed to leverage investment from the private sector.
Financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank are providing loan guarantees to Ukrainian banks, which gives them liquidity.
“So Ukrainian banks can provide loans to Ukrainian companies to invest and operate in Ukraine. This is a big ecosystem to finance investment and operational needs to the Ukrainian economy,” said Fedoseienko.
Together with the finance ministry, the KSE operates an online portal providing information about the various instruments available, which has already helped bring 165 investments to fruition worth $27bn.
“Is it enough to recover the Ukrainian economy?” Fedoseienko asked. “No, but this is a significant programme to support Ukraine now.”
World
Trump administration rejects UN migration declaration, says ‘mass migration was never safe’
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The U.S. State Department announced on Monday that it refused to back an International Migration Review Forum “progress” declaration, accusing the U.N. of efforts to “advocate and facilitate replacement immigration in the United States and across the broader West.”
The U.S. did not participate in the second International Migration Review Forum, held May 5–8 at U.N. Headquarters in New York, and will not support the declaration, the department said in a statement on Monday.
The forum is the U.N.’s main global platform for member states to review implementation of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, according to the U.N. Network on Migration. The 2026 forum was scheduled to produce an intergovernmentally agreed “Progress Declaration.”
President Donald Trump ended U.S. participation in the U.N. process to develop the Global Compact for Migration during his first term in 2017, and now the State Department says the federal government will again affirm its opposition.
TRUMP PULLS US OUT OF UN-LINKED MIGRATION FORUM IN BOLD IMMIGRATION MOVE
President Donald Trump ended U.S. participation in the U.N. process to develop the Global Compact for Migration during his first term in 2017. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
The Global Compact was adopted in 2018 after the U.S. withdrew from the process. The U.N. and International Organization for Migration describe the compact as a cooperative framework intended to improve migration governance across countries.
“As Secretary Rubio said, opening our doors to mass migration was a grave mistake that threatens the cohesion of our societies and the future of our peoples,” the department’s statement reads. “ In recent years, Americans witnessed first-hand how mass immigration laid waste to our communities: crime and chaos at the border, states of emergency in major cities, and billions of taxpayer dollars funneled towards hotels, plane tickets, cell phones and cash cards for migrants.”
“Much of this was driven by UN agencies and their partners, which did not just facilitate the invasion of our country, but proceeded to redistribute our own people’s wealth and resources to millions of foreigners from the worst corners of the world,” it continued.
The department argued there was nothing safe, orderly or regular about any of this, adding that the costs “were borne primarily by working Americans forced to compete for scarce jobs, housing, and social services.”
“The UN has little to say about them,” the department wrote.
TRUMP UNVEILS ‘REVERSE MIGRATION’ PLAN TO HALT ‘THIRD WORLD’ IMMIGRATION, REVOKE BIDEN-ERA ENTRIES
The U.S. refused to participate in an International Migration Review Forum. ( Alex Brandon / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
“President Trump is focused on the interests of Americans, not foreigners or globalist bureaucrats,” the statement reads. ”The United States will not support a process that imposes, overtly or by stealth, guidelines, standards, or commitments that constrain the American people’s sovereign, democratic right to make decisions in the best interests of our country.”
The department concluded its statement by saying its goal is not to “manage” migration, but to “foster remigration.”
In a thread on X also announcing the move to object to the declaration, the department said UN agencies “systematically facilitated mass migration into America and Europe, even as citizens of these nations called for restrictions on migration.” It added that U.N. materials related to the Global Compact call for expanding regular migration pathways and reference “regularization” of migrants.
The International Organization for Migration says the forum is held every four years for countries to review progress and shape next steps on migration policy. IOM, which coordinates the U.N. Network on Migration, says the network includes 39 U.N. agencies working to support countries on migration issues.
The department alleged that “UN agencies – working with the NGOs they fund – established a migration corridor through Central America and to the U.S. border,” the post reads. “As the American people suffered under an unprecedented wave of mass migration, the UN was on the ground pipelining migrants to our southern border.”
The State Department said its goal is not to “manage” migration, but to “foster remigration.” (Denis Balibouse/File Photo/Reuters)
“After facilitating mass migration to the United States, UN agencies condemned the deportation of illegal immigrants,” the post continued. “While the United Kingdom faced unprecedented illegal boat crossings, UN agencies condemned plans for deportations. UN officials lobbied aviation regulators to prevent the deportation of migrants – an appalling violation of the UK’s national sovereignty.”
The U.N. Network on Migration describes the compact as “non-legally binding.” A U.N.-hosted text of the compact also says it respects states’ sovereign right to determine their national migration policies and to distinguish between regular and irregular migration status.
The declaration itself says the Global Compact is a cooperative framework and acknowledges that no state can address migration alone, while also upholding the sovereignty of states.
The department pushed back on the compact’s framing of migration as “safe, orderly and regular.”
“For the citizens of Western nations, mass migration was never safe. It introduced new security threats, imposed financial strains, and undermined the cohesion of our societies,” it wrote.
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“The United States will not legitimize global compacts that enable mass migration into America or Western nations,” the post added.
U.N. materials frame the compact as a cooperative framework for issues that often cross borders, including labor migration, border management, migrant protections and development. U.N. agencies, including the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, describe the IMRF as a state-led review process with participation from relevant stakeholders.
Fox News Digital has reached out to the U.N. for comment.
World
Bolivia issues warrant for Evo Morales’s arrest after court no-show
The ex-Bolivian president is on trial for allegedly fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl while in office.
Published On 12 May 2026
A Bolivian judge has found former President Evo Morales in contempt of court and reissued a warrant for his arrest after he failed to turn up for the start of his trial on charges of trafficking a minor.
The ruling on Monday renewed tensions in the South American country, with supporters of Morales warning they would “throw the country into turmoil” if the former leader is arrested.
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Morales, who is Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, is accused of fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl while in office. The parents of the teen are accused of consenting to the relationship in exchange for favours from Morales.
The former socialist leader, who governed from 2006 to 2019, has rejected the accusations.
Morales did not attend the scheduled start of his trial on Monday in the southern city of Tarija, forcing the proceedings to be suspended.
The Public Prosecutor’s Office said Morales’s “unjustified absence” confirmed his fugitive status and warranted an arrest order as well as a travel ban.
The former president has been hiding from the law in his central coca-growing stronghold of Chapare since late 2024, guarded by Indigenous supporters who have promised to resist any attempt to capture him.
‘Ready for battle’
“They think that by arresting Evo Morales, they will succeed in quelling and demobilising the movement. They are very much mistaken,” supporter Dieter Mendoza said on Kawsachun Coca radio on Monday. “If they touch Evo Morales, this will cause an upheaval … There will be an insurgency across Bolivia.”
Mendoza urged residents of the Cochabamba Tropics to remain on “high alert” and “ready for battle”.
Authorities first issued an arrest warrant for Morales in October 2024, but could not execute it after his supporters blocked roads for 24 days, preventing officers from reaching the region where he remains sheltered.
Morales was already declared in contempt of court in January 2025, when he did not show for a pretrial detention hearing.
Wilfredo Chavez, one of his lawyers, told the AFP news agency on Friday that neither Morales nor his lawyers would show up in court, as they had not been “properly notified”. The lawyer said the court did not send the summons to Morales’s address, but had instead served it through an edict.
Morales, who rose from dire poverty to become one of Latin America’s longest-serving leaders, has slammed those “that persecute me and condemn me in record time”.
His refusal to give up power in 2019 after three terms led to a tumultuous exit that cast a shadow over nearly 14 years of economic progress and poverty reduction.
Forced to resign after elections tainted by fraud, he slipped away into exile in Mexico and later Argentina, but returned home a year later.
He failed to make a comeback last year after being barred from seeking a fourth term in presidential elections.
World
Massive 11,000-carat ruby believed to be second-largest ever found in conflict-ridden country
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A massive ruby unearthed in Burma is being hailed as the second-largest ever discovered in the conflict-ridden country.
The ruby weighs about 11,000 carats — about 4.8 pounds — and was unearthed near Mogok in the Mandalay region, the center of Burma’s gem industry and an area affected by ongoing conflict, according to The Associated Press, citing state media.
The stone was found in mid-April, shortly after the country’s traditional New Year celebrations.
MAN STUMBLES ONTO RARE DIAMOND TREASURE DURING ARKANSAS PARK TRIP WITH FAMILY: ‘KNEW IT WAS DIFFERENT’
Burma’s newly discovered ruby is displayed at the president’s office in Naypyitaw on May 7, 2026. (Myanmar Military True News Information Team/AP)
Although it is roughly half the size of a 21,450-carat ruby discovered in 1996, experts say the new find could be more valuable because of its higher quality, the outlet reported.
It has a purplish-red color with slight yellow tones, moderate transparency and a highly reflective surface.
Burmese President Min Aung Hlaing and his cabinet have already inspected the stone in the country’s capital of Naypyidaw.
ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY TREASURES DATING BACK 4,500 YEARS UNEARTHED IN LEGENDARY CITY
Burmese officials inspect a newly discovered ruby at the president’s office in Naypyidaw on May 7, 2026. (Myanmar Military True News Information Team/AP)
Burma produces up to 90% of the world’s rubies, mostly from Mogok and nearby Mong Hsu.
The gem trade — both legal and illegal — is a major source of income in the country.
However, rights groups, including Global Witness, have long urged jewelers to avoid buying Burmese gemstones, saying the trade helps fund the country’s military governments, according to The Associated Press.
RARE 10-CARAT BLUE DIAMOND AMONG $100M WORTH OF GEMS GOING UP FOR AUCTION
This photo taken on May 16, 2019, shows miners working in a ruby mine in Mogok, north of Mandalay. (Ye Aung Thu/AFP via Getty Images)
Gem mining also finances ethnic armed groups fighting for autonomy, contributing to Burma’s long-running conflicts.
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The mining regions remain unstable.
Mogok was seized in July 2024 by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), an ethnic armed group. Control later returned to the military under a ceasefire deal brokered by China late last year.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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