California
California officials plan for a dry 2025 with grim water supply guesswork
Each December there’s a new version of an old guessing game about how much water will be provided to agricultural and municipal users in the year ahead.
Federal and state water agencies post initial, and usually very low, estimates based on the current condition of reservoirs, soil conditions that affect runoff, and assumptions of rain and snow during the winter and spring.
Over the next few months, the estimates are upgraded as firmer precipitation data accumulates, often — but not always — increasing.
For 2022, as drought gripped California, the state Department of Water Resources initially projected zero water deliveries, later raised them to 15% of the contracted supplies, but finally delivered just 5%.
One year later, however, the department initially promised 5%, but after a very wet winter finally delivered 100%. This year began with a 10% estimate of state water supply and ended up with 40%.
The huge swings in initial allocations and final deliveries are an obvious headache for the 29 local and regional water purveyors supplied by the state water system, serving some 29 million people. Do the public water agencies impose strict conservation on their customers in years with low initial projections, try to obtain supplemental supplies, take a chance that eventual deliveries will be higher, or all of the above?
The annual game resumed this week, when the Department of Water Resources announced an initial 2025 estimate of just 5%.
“Based on long-range forecasts and the possibility of a La Niña year, the State Water Project is planning for a dry 2025 punctuated by extreme storms like we’ve seen in late November,” department director Karla Nemeth said in a statement. “We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply. Our wettest months of the season are still to come.
“What we do know is that we started the water year following record heat this summer and in early October that parched the landscape. We must account for dry soils in our State Water Project allocation planning and our runoff forecasts for the spring.”
That’s a fairly grim scenario that may already be outdated because it was made without counting the heavy rains and snows that hit the state in late November.
“These storms will be taken into account along with other variables for future allocation updates. Prior to these storms, the start of the water year had been dry and warm,” the department said. It’s also noteworthy that after the spate of storms, California’s weather has returned to dry and warm.
Another factor in the guessing game is the status of reservoirs, not only the state’s Lake Oroville, but the multiple storage projects managed by the federal government, such as Lake Shasta, and those owned by cities and irrigation districts.
At the moment, the state’s reservoirs are generally above 100% of historic averages after a couple of relatively wet winters, which indicate that ultimate water deliveries will be higher than the low initial estimates, although how much higher is uncertain. Shasta is at 113% and Oroville at 109%.
The annual guessing game would be more accurate if the state had done what it should have done decades ago — developed more storage capacity, either in reservoirs or aquifers, that could be filled in wet years and cushion the impact of drought.
A couple of storage projects are underway, Sites Reservoir on the west side of the Sacramento Valley and an enlargement of the San Luis Reservoir in the Pacheco Pass west of Merced.
Much more is needed as climate change affects the precipitation cycle.
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Two persons ride by on motorcycles as the Palisades Fire destroys a neighborhood in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025.
Etienne Laurent/AP
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Etienne Laurent/AP
More than 4,000 acres of land are burning in Southern California from three wildfires, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate.
With firefighters having not contained any portion of the fires and high winds forecast overnight, anxiety grew over what conditions residents and officials will face as Wednesday breaks.
Here’s what we know so far.
The scopes of the fires
The Palisades fire started Tuesday at about 10:30 a.m. local time, and has burned nearly 3,000 acres of land in Los Angeles County.
The Eaton and Hurst fires both started later Tuesday, with the Eaton fire first reported at about 10:30 p.m. local time, also in Los Angeles County. Late Tuesday night, the Hurst fire was reported in the Sylmar neighborhood north of Los Angeles, leading the L.A. Fire Department to issue evacuation orders near where Interstate 5 meets the 14 and 210 freeways.
By early Wednesday morning Eaton had burned 1,000 acres of land, while the Hurst fire had burned 500 acres of land.
A screenshot from Cal Fire as of 3:53 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday shows the location of three fires burning in southern California: Palisades, Eaton and Hurst.
Cal Fire
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Cal Fire
The causes of all three fires are being investigated, and they were all at 0% containment early Wednesday morning.
Evacuation orders and warnings have been issued in association with the fires.
Danger posed to neighboring counties
An evacuation order signals the fire poses an “immediate threat to life” and mandates evacuations, while an evacuation warning carries a “potential threat to life and/or property” and suggests that those with pets and livestock, and those who would need more time to evacuate, do so, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, better known as Cal Fire.
The fires could spread to neighboring areas, such as Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, according to the National Weather Service.
Wildfire season in Southern California typically runs from the late spring to the fall, according to the National Wildfire Coordinating Group.
“This time of year traditionally has not been fire season, but now we disabuse any notion that there is a season,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a video posted to X. “It’s year-round in the state of California.”
All hands are on deck to fight the #PalisadesFire in Southern California. California is deeply grateful for the brave firefighters & first responders battling the blaze.
We will continue to mobilize resources and support local communities as they respond to this severe weather. pic.twitter.com/JZrYy85e4z— Governor Newsom (@CAgovernor) January 8, 2025
Local, state and federal government responses
Newsom declared a state of emergency Tuesday, as did Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.
Additionally, five Los Angeles schools will be closed Wednesday, and a sixth school has temporarily relocated and joined with another. The district said it is waiting to make a decision about whether to close the impacted schools Thursday.
Flames reached two schools, the structure of Palisades Charter Elementary, and the playing fields of Palisades Charter High School, according to The Los Angeles Times. The latter school “is currently not in session,” the district said.
More than 200,000 customers in Los Angeles and Ventura counties were without power early Wednesday morning. Firefighting authorities will typically turn off power lines, as a downed line can cause sparks that escalate to flames.
“This is a highly dangerous windstorm that’s creating extreme fire risk – and we’re not out of the woods,” Newsom said. “We’re already seeing the destructive impacts with this fire in Pacific Palisades that grew rapidly in a matter of minutes.”
He said Tuesday that California had secured a grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, which will reimburse up to 75% of eligible costs authorities have taken on to suppress the fires.
President Biden said his team is in touch with state and local officials in California and that he is receiving frequent updates.
“My Administration will do everything it can to support the response,” he said. “I urge the residents of the Pacific Palisades and the surrounding areas of Los Angeles to stay vigilant and listen to local officials.”
Weather conditions in the area
Critical fire conditions are expected in parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday. The fires are forecasted to be exacerbated by low humidity, dry vegetation and strong winds between 50 and 100 miles per hour, the National Weather Service said.
The agency has issued wind advisories for the area.
How to prepare
➡️ Trying to stay safe in a wildfire? There’s an app that can help
➡️ Evacuation terms can be confusing. Here’s what they mean and how to sign up for alerts
➡️ How to keep yourself safe from wildfire smoke
➡️ This is why fire officials don’t want you to stay and defend your home
The California Newsroom is following the latest from across the region. Click through to LAist’s coverage for the latest.
California
More than 13,000 structures under threat from Palisades fire, California authorities say – follow live
As the sun sets in California, we’ve gathered photos of the Palisades fire that broke out this morning, around 10:30am local time. Officials have said that the worst of the high winds driving the fire are expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecasters predicted the windstorm would last for days, producing isolated gusts that could top 100 mph (160 kph) in mountains and foothills — including in areas that haven’t seen substantial rain in months.
Fire personnel respond to homes destroyed while a helicopter drops water as the Palisades Fire grows in Pacific Palisades, California on January 7, 2025. A fast-moving wildfire in a Los Angeles suburb burned buildings and sparked panic, with thousands ordered to evacuate January 7, 2025 as “life threatening” winds whipped the region. Frightened residents abandoned their cars on one of the only roads in and out of the upscale Pacific Palisades area, fleeing on foot from the 770-acre (310-hectare) blaze engulfing an area crammed with multi-million dollar homes in the Santa Monica Mountains. (Photo by David Swanson / AFP) (Photo by DAVID SWANSON/AFP via Getty Images) Photograph: David Swanson/AFP/Getty Images
You can find more photographs capturing the extent of the damage here:
Speaking at a press conference in Pacific Palisades this afternoon, California governor Gavin Newsom noted that he found “not a few — many structures already destroyed” and thanked President Joe Biden for issuing a Fire Management Assistance Grant.
“No politics, no hand-wringing, no kissing of the feet,” Newsom said. The Democratic governor was scheduled to speak at an event with Biden this afternoon that was rescheduled due to the inclement weather. “My message to the incoming administration, and I’m not here to play any politics, is please don’t play any politics.”
Newsom further urged residents to heed evacuation orders: “By no stretch of the imagination are we out of the woods.”
About 15,000 utility customers in southern California have had their power shut off to reduce the risk of equipment sparking blaze. Half a million customers total were at risk of losing power preemptively, the Associated Press reported on Tuesday evening.
Minutes after the J Paul Getty Trust issued a statement on the Palisades fire and efforts to protect the Getty Villa from wildfires, an unidentified official on LAFD radio said that the Getty Villa Museum was “catching on fire”, the Los Angeles Times reports. At this time, it’s not clear whether any structures have caught fire, but officials confirmed the grounds were on fire and that flames were approaching the museum buildings.
The Getty Villa, which is located in Pacific Palisades, displays a collection of Greek, Roman and Etruscan Art. It’s better-known sibling, the Getty Center, is located in Brentwood and contains a broad-ranging collection of European and North American art.
A spokesperson from the Getty Villa confirmed the Trust’s earlier statement to The Guardian, adding that there are “no structures currently on fire”.
Universal Pictures and Amazon MGM Studios canceled two movie premieres scheduled to take place in Los Angeles on Tuesday evening as the city declared a state of emergency amid high winds and the Palisades fire.
Wolf Man had been scheduled to premier at the TCL Chinese Theater and Unstoppable would have shown at the DGA Theater.
More than 13,000 structures under threat from the Palisades fires, according to LA fire department fire chief Kristin Crowley, with the Getty Villa being one of them. In a statement issued this afternoon, Katherine E Fleming, president and CEO of the J Paul Getty Trust, said the museum is closed to non-emergency staff and will remain closed at least through 13 January.
“Fortunately, Getty had made extensive efforts to clear brush from the surrounding area as part of its fire mitigation efforts throughout the year. Some trees and vegetation on site have burned, but staff and the collection remain safe,” she said. “Additional fire prevention measures in place at the villa include water storage on-site. Irrigation was immediately deployed throughout the grounds Tuesday morning. Museum galleries and library archives were sealed off from smoke by state-of-the-art air handling systems. The double-walled construction of the galleries also provides significant protection for the collections.”
The city of Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency for the “wind event”, the city council president Marqueece Harris-Dawson announced during a press conference Tuesday afternoon.
“We want everybody to know that the city is well prepared and has a tremendous emergency management infrastructure,” said Harris-Dawson. “If you can stay off of our roads, please do so to allow emergency vehicles to go across the city.”
Photos from the Palisades fire are beginning to be sent out, showing the destruction of homes and the billowing black smoke choking the sky.
As the Palisades fire reached the Malibu coast Tuesday afternoon, the California department of forestry and fire protection (CalFire) announced road closures and evacuation shelters.
An evacuation center has been established at the Westwood Recreation center on South Sepulveda Boulevard. Meanwhile, the southbound Pacific Coast Highway has been closed at Las Flores Canyon Road, Topanga Canyon Boulevard and Coastline Drive.
The Palisades fire has consumed more than 1,200 acres since it broke out at about 10.30am on Tuesday morning, and destroyed several homes in an affluent community along the Pacific Ocean.
Nearly 30,000 residents are under evacuation orders and more than 13,000 structures are under threat, said Kristin Crowley, fire chief of the LA fire department.
Actor Eugene Levy, the honorary mayor of Pacific Palisades, who was forced to evacuate, told the Los Angeles Times while stuck in traffic: “The smoke looked pretty black and intense.” Other evacuees described harrowing escapes, one woman recounting to ABC7 how she abandoned her vehicle and fled with her cat in her arms: “I’m getting hit with palm leaves on fire … It’s terrifying. It feels like a horror movie. I’m screaming and crying walking down the street.”
The Los Angeles school district was also forced to relocate students from three campuses, and Joe Biden had to cancel plans for an event announcing two national monuments.
Lois Beckett
By mid-afternoon, shoppers at a luxury outdoor mall in Century City, about 12 miles east of the Pacific Palisades, were still strolling around as usual. But outside the mall, billows of smoke were visible to the west, and the views in the distance were starting to look hazy.
Lois Beckett
I’m currently driving east across Los Angeles, and am close to Beverly Hills at the moment. Ahead of me, looking towards downtown, the view is pretty clear and sunny, though the palm trees that line the streets are tossing pretty dramatically in the wind. But behind me, in my rearview mirror, I can see billows of smoke from the Pacific Palisades fire to the west. The most recent air quality readings across Los Angeles were in the healthy range, but I’m expecting that the air quality is going to worsen quickly as the smoke spreads across the city.
As a fast-moving wildfire spreads near Los Angeles on Tuesday, we’re bringing you this live blog with the latest news on fires caused by a “life-threatening” windstorm that has hit southern California this week. The region is expected to see what could amount to the strongest winds in more than a decade, bringing extreme fire risk to areas that have been without significant rain for months.
A large swath of southern California, home to millions of people, is under what officials have described as “extreme risk” from the destructive storm. The weather service warned of downed trees and knocked over big rigs, trailers and motorhomes, and advised residents to stay indoors and away from windows. Powerful offshore gusts will also bring dangerous conditions off the coasts of Orange county and LA, including Catalina Island, and potential delays and turbulence could arise at local airports.
President Joe Biden is signing off on two new national Native American monuments in California that will ban drilling on 849,000 acres of land.
Chuckwalla National Monument will sit in the south and Sáttítla National Monument in the north of the state.
Why It Matters
Biden is using the final weeks of his presidency to build on long-established policy targets, in this instance conserving at least 30 percent of U.S. lands and waters by 2030 through his “America the Beautiful” initiative. The Chuckwalla and Sáttítla National Monuments join a growing list of protected areas under Biden’s administration.
However, this isn’t the first environmentally-charged proposition to come from the Biden administration during his last month in power—on Monday, he announced a ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling in most U.S. coastal waters.
President-elect Donald Trump claims last-minute calls like this only serve to make their power transition more complicated.
Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
What We Know
The White House emphasized that these monuments will protect water resources, preserve culturally significant sites, and ensure access to nature for communities.
The designations block development activities such as mining and drilling, safeguarding ecosystems that are home to diverse plant and animal species.
Both monuments will be co-stewarded with tribes, enhancing tribal sovereignty and involvement in land management, continuing a trend of comanagement that began with Utah’s Bears Ears National Monument.
Why the Land is Important to Native Americans
The Chuckwalla National Monument covers 624,000 acres in Southern California, spanning from the Coachella Valley to the Colorado River. Sáttítla National Monument includes 225,000 acres of pristine landscapes in Northern California.
Native Americans revere the land because of its deep cultural and spiritual importance, including the Cahuilla, Mohave, Pit River, and Modoc tribes.
Sáttítla is near California’s northern border with Oregon. It encompasses mountain woodlands, meadows, and habitats for rare wildlife. Chuckwalla National Monument, named after the large desert lizard native to the region, protects public lands south of Joshua Tree National Park.
GaryKavanagh/Getty Images
What People Are Saying
President and CEO of the nonprofit Trust for Public Land Carrie Besnette Hauser said the designation of the monuments “marks a historic step toward protecting lands of profound cultural, ecological and historical significance for all Americans.”
A statement from Fort Yuma Quechan Tribe read: “The protection of the Chuckwalla National Monument brings the Quechan people an overwhelming sense of peace and joy [ …] tribes being reunited as stewards of this landscape is only the beginning of much-needed healing and restoration, and we are eager to fully rebuild our relationship to this place.”
President-elect Donald Trump’s spokesperson, Steven Cheung, told Newsweek in an email [regarding the ban on offshore oil and gas drilling]: “It’s despicable what Joe Biden is doing, and he is going against the will of the people who gave President Donald Trump a historic mandate to Make America Great Again.”
Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social “Biden is doing everything possible to make the TRANSITION as difficult as possible, from Lawfare such as has never been seen before, to costly and ridiculous Executive Orders on the Green New Scam and other money wasting Hoaxes.”
LUIS ROBAYO/AFP via Getty Images
What’s Next
With Biden’s term nearing its end, additional conservation announcements may follow as the administration seeks to solidify its environmental legacy.
Trump appears determined to unravel that, declaring on Monday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that, after he’s inaugurated on Jan. 20, Biden’s drilling ban will “be changed on day one.”
This article includes reporting from The Associated Press
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Photos: Pacific Palisades Wildfire Engulfs Homes in an L.A. Neighborhood
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