Arizona
‘Strong’ El Niño: Could this be the start of a wet winter in Arizona?
PHOENIX – Winter officially starts in less than a month, and we’ve got snow in the forecast this week.
With an El Niño pattern, could this be the start of a wet winter? We’re officially under what is described as a “strong” El Niño.
It’s forecast to last through at least this spring, but, in Arizona, an El Niño isn’t a guarantee for a wetter-than-average season.
After digging through the numbers, and chatting with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, we got a better idea of our odds.
So, let’s start with the basics.
During an El Niño, waters along the equatorial Pacific Ocean turn hotter than average.
On a map, you’ll see a bright red area. That’s hot water. That hot water helps brew thunderstorms.
Some of which will head inland. As a result, this is the typical winter pattern that sets up during an El Niño year.
“You can think of the jet stream as being, kind of like this highway that weather systems travel along. So when we’re in an El Niño period, and the southern jet stream gets strengthened, we tend to have more weather systems that will impact the southern half of the United States,” explained Robert Rickey, a meteorologist with NWS Flagstaff.
Tend is the keyword.
“Specifically for northern Arizona, when we’re in El Nino cycles, odds tend to favor near to above normal precipitation. There’s a lot of variability there and being in an El Niño period definitely does not guarantee that we’re going to get a lot of rain,” Rickey said.
The best way to describe it? Let’s talk baseball.
If you have a batter who’s known for big hits, it’s natural to feel excited and hopeful when he’s up to bat.
But, you also know, he could still strike out.
Take last year, for example.
“We had near-historic snowfall amounts across northern Arizona, we had over 160″ of snow just here in Flagstaff alone, and that was during a La Nina period, which on average tends to lead to less precipitation,” Rickey said.
Let’s look at some of the numbers to explain that pesky word: “tends.”
We’re talking probability, or, the odds.
Since 1950, across Arizona, there have been 25 El Niño events. Of those 25, 17 experienced near-average to above-average precipitation.
Between December and February, that’s about 68% of the time.
Specifically in Flagstaff, the NWS says they’ve experienced above average snow totals for half the El Niño winters on record with just 18% running below average.
Good odds, but not a home run.
Now that we know there are no absolutes in baseball, or El Niño, what about this winter?
Odds are leaning slightly toward above-normal rain or snow in Arizona.
For Phoenix, there’s a 35% probability of above-average rain. This year, the global weather pattern seems to be throwing a wrench in the “typical” plan.
“Each El Niño is kind of like a snowflake. They’re all going to be different in some way. One difference between this El Niño and some of the past strong El Niños is that we’re seeing very warm sea surface temperatures over a very broad area,” Rickey said.
In fact, much of the Pacific is running hotter than normal.
Some meteorologists are questioning if this could dull some of the more common impacts of El Niño.
Without previous years to compare, only time will tell.
When looking at the last four El Niño winters, we found it was 50/50 for above or below-average rain in Phoenix. Our best season was 2009-2010.
In Flagstaff, three of the four years were near or above-average for snow.
Hopefully, this year plays out the same
Arizona
Newest Arizona members of Congress sworn in during opening day in DC
Gary Farmer is an actor, musician, and activist whose made a career in indigenous media. His performances in television and film have received rave reviews. The1989 film “Powwow Highway”, in which he stars, was just inducted into the Library of Congress National Film Registry.
Arizona
Yassamin Ansari, Abe Hamadeh set to become Arizona’s newest members of Congress
Arizona District 3 Congresswoman elect Yassamin Ansari talks victory
Congresswoman elect Yassamin Ansari gives victory speech on Nov. 5, 2024, after being elected to represent Arizona’s 3rd district in Congress.
Arizona’s two newest U.S. House members are set to get sworn into their posts as the 119th Congress gets underway.
Republican Abe Hamadeh, a lawyer, and Democrat Yassamin Ansari, a former Phoenix vice mayor, are expected to take their oaths of office on Friday, shortly after the House resumes session.
Hamadeh will replace Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Ariz., who is retiring from Congress to serve on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.
He will represent Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, an overwhelmingly Republican area that covers parts of Maricopa and Yavapai counties, including Glendale, Peoria, Sun City West and New River.
Propelled by an endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump, Hamadeh defeated a crowded field of other Republicans in Arizona’s July 30 primary election and sailed to an easy victory in the Nov. 5 general election.
Hamadeh, a self-described “America First warrior,” largely echoed Trump’s positions on the campaign trail. He will serve on the House Veterans Affairs Committee and the Armed Services Committee.
Ansari will represent Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, a stretch of Maricopa County that includes parts of Phoenix and Glendale. She is replacing Democrat Ruben Gallego, who has swapped his House seat for a U.S. Senate seat. Her House committee assignments have not been announced.
During the primary election, Ansari hewed closer to the political center than her opponent, former state Sen. Raquel Terán of Phoenix. Ansari ran on a progressive platform but staked out more centrist turf on issues like policing and U.S. foreign policy toward Israel.
She beat out Terán by just 39 votes, and, like Hamadeh, won her November election in a landslide.
Ansari plans to join the House’s Progressive Caucus, the Democrats’ most left-leaning faction on Capitol Hill.
Arizona
3 arrested in connection with good Samaritan's killing in Arizona
Three people were arrested this week in connection with the death of a good Samaritan in Arizona last month, officials said.
The Pima County Sheriff’s Department identified two of the three people arrested Monday as Jack Upchurch, 40, and Elmer Smith, 19. The third person is 16 years old. NBC News does not typically identify minors accused of crimes.
The trio were arrested in connection with the death of Paul Clifford, 53, whose body was found near a smoldering car northeast of Tucson last month.
Sabrina Vining, a woman who identified herself as Clifford’s daughter in an online fundraiser, said her father disappeared after he left his house at 11:30 p.m. Dec. 23 to help a “stranger with a stranded vehicle.”
NBC affiliate KVOA of Tucson reported that Clifford’s family reported him missing after, they said, a strange man knocked on Clifford’s door and asked for help with his car.
He was later found dead, the sheriff’s department said. It did not provide a cause or manner of death.
Officials said they received information Monday about a possible location for the three suspects.
Detectives searched the area and obtained a search warrant for a property, which the Pima Regional SWAT team carried out.
The suspects barricaded themselves inside a home and eventually called 911 to negotiate a surrender, the sheriff’s department said. They left the residence and were taken into custody.
The sheriff’s department did not release any information about a motive or how it connected the suspects to Clifford’s killing.
The three suspects were booked into the Pima County Adult Detention Center on felony arrest warrants, officials said.
It was not immediately clear whether they have legal representation. Jail records do not list attorneys for any of the three.
Upchurch was being held on a $1 million bond, Smith on $1.025 million bail and the minor on a half-million-dollar bond, according to jail records.
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