Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is in for a close race against Republican challengers in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll.

Newsweek reached out to Hobbs and the Republican candidates’ campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Arizona emerged as a key swing state over the past decade, with both parties scoring statewide victories. Last November, President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly six points, but Democrat Ruben Gallego eked out a win in the Senate race, a sign of how competitive the state can still be.

Hobbs, first elected in 2022, is up for reelection next year. Democrats are optimistic about their chances in the midterms. Historically, the president’s party loses seats, and Trump’s approval remains low.

A series of Democratic victories in recent elections has also fueled hopes about a blue wave in the midterms. But forecasters still view the race as competitive for both parties, and the Emerson College poll released Friday underscores just how close it may be.

What To Know

Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in 2022, a year that was generally stronger for Republicans. Prior to the election, Hobbs served as Arizona’s secretary of state and as a state legislator starting in 2011.

Several Republicans are vying to challenge her, including Arizona Representatives Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, as well as attorney Karrin Taylor Robson. Trump has endorsed both Biggs and Robson.

The Emerson poll showed Hobbs with a slight lead over each of the Republican candidates.

She held a single-point lead over Biggs (44 percent to 43 percent) and Robson (43 percent to 42 percent), and a five-point lead over Schweikert (44 percent to 39 percent), according to the poll. It surveyed 850 registered voters from November 8 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Biggs held a lead in the primary, with 50 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him. Meanwhile, Robson and Schweikert held 17 percent and 8 percent support, respectively, in the primary, the poll found.

Other polls have also painted a picture of a close race. A Noble Predictive Insights poll, which surveyed 948 registered voters from August 11 to 18, showed Hobbs with a two-point lead over both Biggs (39 percent to 37 percent) and Robson (40 percent to 38 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

In 2022, Hobbs defeated Lake by less than a single percentage point (50.3 percent to 49.7 percent) in what was one of the closest races across the country. Arizona was also one of the closest states at the presidential level in 2020—former President Joe Biden carried it by less than half a percentage point.

In 2024, however, Trump gained back ground in the state, winning 52.2 percent of the vote to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 46.7 percent.

What People Are Saying

Spencer Kimball, director of the Emerson College poll, wrote in a report: “In a matchup between Hobbs and Biggs, voters who say the economy is their top issue break for Hobbs, 45% to 41%, while those who find immigration to be the top issue break for Biggs, 81% to 6%.”

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in April: “I like Karrin Taylor Robson of Arizona a lot, and when she asked me to Endorse her, with nobody else running, I Endorsed her, and was happy to do so.

“When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH. Either one will never let you down. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

What Happens Next

The Arizona race is likely to become closely watched—and expensive—as both parties try to win over voters over the coming year. Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies the race as a pure toss-up.