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Is Arizona an ‘emerging problem’ for Donald Trump? He could return to the state soon

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Is Arizona an ‘emerging problem’ for Donald Trump? He could return to the state soon


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Arizona used to be a near-foregone conclusion for Donald Trump. Now it’s an “emerging problem,” according to one longtime political observer. 

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Vice President Kamala Harris is rising in battleground state polls and drew thousands to a political rally in Glendale last week, establishing herself as a more formidable Trump opponent than President Joe Biden was.

Now, Republicans wonder whether Trump has been present in Arizona enough and say he is losing ground to Democrats.

“They’re on their back foot,” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime GOP strategist who left the party during the Trump era. “Arizona clearly is an emerging problem for him.”

Trump could address some of those criticisms in person as soon as next week. The former president is weighing a trip to Arizona’s southern border in Cochise County, where the U.S.-Mexico border runs for 84 miles. The region is home to two ports of entry: Douglas and Naco. 

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Sierra Vista Mayor Clea McCaa and Sierra Vista police Chief Chris Hiser will be present for Trump’s visit, a city spokesperson said on Wednesday. It is not clear what day Trump might visit the county, and the former president’s campaign declined to answer questions about his travel plans. 

Arizona is a top campaign destination for presidential candidates because it is among a handful of states that could decide the outcome of the 2024 election. Trump lost here by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020, the smallest margin of any state on the electoral map. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won in Arizona since 1996 and only the second time since 1948. 

Democrats had all but given up on Arizona’s presidential prospects at the beginning of the summer, but the well-choreographed swap at the top of the ticket has injected new enthusiasm in the party.

Harris held smaller Arizona events during her tenure as vice president but drew a crowd of 15,000 to Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale last week for her first Arizona appearance as the Democratic nominee. Trump addressed some 4,000 people at a rally at Dream City Church in Phoenix in June. 

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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report just changed its Arizona presidential election forecast from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” and a survey from Coughlin’s polling firm HighGround found Harris narrowly leading Trump in Arizona 44% to 42% among likely voters. (The HighGround survey was conducted July 30-Aug. 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points).

“I didn’t think Democrats thought they could win out here,” Coughlin said. “Now they’re like, oh … we might be able to win this thing.” 

The Trump campaign has put more resources into Arizona lately, dispatching vice-presidential nominee JD Vance for a rally and border tour in Cochise County, the same region Trump is considering visiting.

Trump and his allies are also pouring millions into TV ad buys to attack Harris on immigration and the economy. MAGA Inc. just announced a $100 million TV ad buy across the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, POLITICO reported.

“It’s hard to believe until you see it with your own eyes, just how bad the policies of the Kamala Harris administration have been when it comes to the southern border,” Vance said during his trip to the border wall, making sure to attack Harris on one of her most vulnerable issues. 

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Trump has veered off track with his messaging, though, according to one of his Arizona backers. Trump “never stops speaking” and should stick to a campaign message that can broaden his coalition, said Arizona Republican Alberto Gutier, who served as a Trump elector in 2016.

“Trump can still win it, but he’s gonna have to solidify what’s left of the party,” Gutier said, pointing to struggles Arizona Republicans have faced in recent years. The GOP lost three Senate races, the Governor’s Office, the Secretary of State’s Office and the Attorney General’s Office during the Trump era. 

For its part, the Trump campaign said his momentum is growing and attacked Harris on the economy and the border.

“Everything — from rent, groceries to gas — is far more expensive under Kamala Harris. Under her failed leadership, Arizona families have experienced record high prices and an unruly border crisis; our communities have been less safe, and deadly drugs are killing our youth. President Trump offers Arizona voters hope through his agenda to make Arizona safe and affordable again,” Trump campaign spokesperson Halee Dobbins said in a written statement.

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“The momentum is only growing for Trump ahead of November as voters grow sick and tired of Harris’ lies and unlivable policies; Arizona won’t buy her gaslighting this fall.”But Gutier said he’s worried that Harris appeals to a noteworthy voting group that could help sway the election result. 

“Here in Arizona, young people, a lot of people who have not been involved in politics, see her as a savior,” Gutier said. “Good luck, America.”

Still, Trump just got a boost from a top Arizona Republican whom he butted heads with in the past. Former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey endorsed Trump on Tuesday, putting his “differences aside” to back the former president who once said Ducey was betraying Arizona by certifying the 2020 election results. 

“Differences aside, there is too much on the line and only a Republican in the White House and a majority in the House and US Senate can ensure it,” Ducey said, throwing his support behind Trump and GOP Senate nominee Kari Lake. 

No charges: Why Arizona Attorney General Mayes didn’t want to indict Trump in fake elector case

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He also received praise from the Arizona Republican Party chair for taking questions from billionaire Trump booster Elon Musk during a lengthy livestream on Musk’s social media site. Harris has taken few questions from reporters since she became her party’s nominee.

“The conversation between President Trump and Elon Musk on X Spaces again demonstrated President Trump’s commitment to transparency and direct engagement with the American people,” Arizona GOP Chair Gina Swoboda said in a written statement. “In stark contrast, Kamala Harris has been noticeably absent from the media for over three weeks.” 

When it comes to campaigning offline, Trump has a lighter footprint than the Harris operation in Arizona. The Trump campaign has eight offices here, compared with Harris’ 12, though it says it has plans to open more ahead of the election. Trump offices are in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Casa Grande, Sun City, Chandler, Mesa, Tucson and Kingman. The campaign also holds “Super Saturday” training sessions for volunteers around the state. 

“The Harris-Walz campaign has seen a surge of momentum as voters are responding to Vice President Harris’ fight to bring down costs, secure the border, and make sure Arizona families don’t just get by but get ahead,” Harris spokesperson Jacques Petit said in a written statement.

“Meanwhile Donald Trump and JD Vance have almost no presence in the state and are running on a toxic Project 2025 agenda to ban abortion in Arizona and slash Medicare and Social Security, which is why Republicans, Democrats and Independents are coming together to defeat them and deliver the White House for Vice President Harris and Governor Walz.”

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Trump says message from Arizona senator, others ‘seditious behavior’ punishable by death

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Trump says message from Arizona senator, others ‘seditious behavior’ punishable by death


PHOENIX (AP/AZFamily) ― President Donald Trump on Thursday accused several Democratic lawmakers, including an Arizona Senator, of sedition “punishable by DEATH” after the lawmakers called on U.S. military members to uphold the Constitution and defy “illegal orders.”

The 90-second video was first posted early Tuesday from Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s X account. In it, the six lawmakers — Slotkin, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, and Reps. Jason Crow, Chris Deluzio, Maggie Goodlander and Chrissy Houlahan — speak directly to U.S. service members, whom Slotkin acknowledges are “under enormous stress and pressure right now.”

“The American people need you to stand up for our laws and our Constitution,” Slotkin wrote in the X post.

All of the lawmakers in the video are veterans of the armed services and intelligence community. Sen. Kelly was a U.S. Navy captain.

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Trump on Thursday reposted messages from others about the video, amplifying it with his own words. It marked another flashpoint in the political rhetoric that at times has been thematic in his administrations, as well as among some in his MAGA base. Some Democrats accused him of acting like a king and trying to distract from other news, including the soon-to-be-released files about disgraced financier and sexual abuser Jeffrey Epstein.

What Democrats said in the video

With pieces of dialogue spliced together from different members, the lawmakers introduce themselves and their background. They go on to say the Trump administration “is pitting our uniformed military against American citizens. They call for service members to “refuse illegal orders” and “stand up for our laws.”

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The lawmakers conclude the video by encouraging service members, “Don’t give up the ship,” a War of 1812-era phrase attributed to a U.S. Navy captain’s dying command to his crew.

Although the lawmakers didn’t mention specific circumstances in the video, its release comes as the Trump administration continues attempts at deployment of National Guard troops into U.S. cities for various roles, although some have been pulled back, and others held up in court.

Are U.S. troops allowed to disobey orders?

Troops, especially uniformed commanders, have a specific obligation to reject an order that’s unlawful, if they make that determination.

However, while commanders have military lawyers on their staffs to consult with in helping make such a determination, rank-and-file troops who are tasked with carrying out those orders are rarely in a similar position.

Broad legal precedence holds that just following orders, colloquially known as the “Nuremberg defense” as it was used unsuccessfully by senior Nazi officials to justify their actions under Adolf Hitler, doesn’t absolve troops.

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However, the U.S. military legal code, known as the Uniform Code of Military Justice or UCMJ, will punish troops for failing to follow an order should it turn out to be lawful. Troops can be criminally charged with Article 90 of the UCMJ, willfully disobeying a superior commissioned officer, and Article 92, failure to obey an order.

How Trump, others responded

On Thursday, Trump reposted to social media an article about the video, adding his own commentary that it was “really bad, and Dangerous to our Country.”

“SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR FROM TRAITORS!!!” Trump went on. “LOCK THEM UP???” He also called for the lawmakers’ arrest and trial, adding in a separate post that it was “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH.”

The Steady State, which describes itself as “a network of 300+ national and homeland security experts standing for strong and principled policy, rule of law, and democracy,” wrote in a Substack post on Thursday that the lawmakers’ call was “only a restatement of what every officer and enlisted servicemember already knows: illegal orders can and should be refused. This is not a political opinion. It is doctrine.”

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell challenged the theory that illegal orders were being issued.

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“Our military follows orders, and our civilians give legal orders,” Parnell told The Associated Press on Thursday. “We love the Constitution. These politicians are out of their minds.”

Democrats fire back

The lawmakers involved in the video issued a joint statement on Thursday in response to the president’s comments.

The statement, in part, says the lawmakers will not be intimidated or threatened to deter them from their sworn oath to the U.S.

“What’s most telling is that the President considers it punishable by death for us to restate the law,” the joint statement read. “Our servicemembers should know that we have their backs as they fulfill their oath to the Constitution and obligation to follow only lawful orders. It is not only the right thing to do, but also our duty.

“But this isn’t about any one of us. This isn’t about politics. This is about who we are as Americans. Every American must unite and condemn the President’s calls for our murder and political violence. This is a time for moral clarity.

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“In these moments, fear is contagious, but so is courage. We will continue to lead and will not be intimidated.”





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Following scandal, this Oregon sewer board will move its subsidiary from Hawaii to Arizona

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Following scandal, this Oregon sewer board will move its subsidiary from Hawaii to Arizona


It’s official: Washington County’s embattled sewer agency will trade Hawaiian beaches for Arizona desert by the end of 2026.

In a move that had been telegraphed for months, the Clean Water Services board of commissioners voted 4-0 Tuesday to relocate its controversy-producing insurance subsidiary from Hawaii to Arizona, citing financial savings. The vote comes eight months after the company’s location came under scrutiny in the wake of an Oregonian/OregonLive investigation that found that agency executives on the insurance company board stayed at a rotating cast of five-star resorts for annual board meetings and insurance conferences in Hawaii.

Seven trips cost at least $165,000, including $42,000 to send six officials to the Big Island in 2023 and at least $41,000 to send seven officials to Kauai last year, records show. The sewer agency did not send any employees to Hawaii last month for the annual insurance conference.

Following the newsroom’s investigation, the sewer board, made up of the members of the Washington County Board of Commissioners, implemented a slew of oversight measures and the agency’s executive director eventually resigned, privately citing a hostile work environment. The board’s review included requiring the agency to conduct a new domicile review for its wholly-owned captive insurance company, a form of self insurance that is rare among public agencies.

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That review, conducted this summer by consultant Aon, identified Arizona, not Hawaii, as the best state for Clean Water Services to locate its insurance subsidiary. The agency endorsed that recommendation and asked the board to approve it, primarily based on Aon’s review, spokesperson Julie Cortez said.

The sewer board did not make public statements before voting Tuesday but asserted in previous meetings and in its official board resolution that the decision to relocate the insurance company from Hawaii to Arizona made financial sense and was not simply a response to public outcry. However, Clean Water Services declined to provide a complete picture of why the move made financial sense.

The Clean Water Services board, made up of the Washington County Board of Commissioners, voted 4-0 on Tuesday to move the agency’s insurance subsidiary from Hawaii to Arizona. Director Jerry Willey was not present for the vote. Mark Graves/The Oregonian

An August estimate by Aon found it would cost the agency about $203,000 annually to remain in Hawaii while it would cost nearly $192,000 to be in Arizona.

That analysis factored in board member travel. Aon estimated it would cost only $10,000 to continue traveling to Hawaii for annual board meetings and up to $16,500 for optional training and education. In comparison, it estimated it would cost $7,500 to go to Arizona annually for board meetings and up to $9,500 for optional training and education.

Those figures are well below the more $40,000 annually that the agency had been spending in recent years to send its entire board to Hawaii. Rick Shanley, the interim CEO/general manager for Clean Water Services, told the board in an Oct. 10 meeting that was because the agency would only send three board members to future conferences.

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Aon’s analysis estimated there would also be an additional $45,000 in one-time costs to move the company to Arizona, including legal costs and the costs of a tax adviser and captive manager. But staying in Hawaii would cost about the same, Shanley told the board in the Oct. 10 meeting. That’s because the agency needed to update its operating agreement and make other legal and administrative changes to the insurance company.

Board member Jason Snider pledged his support for Arizona at the time, saying he was swayed by the fact that there would be similar one-time costs no matter what.

“For me, the decision becomes much easier when I realize we were likely going to have to redo a bunch of work in Hawaii anyway,” Snider said. “I think the right decision, given that, is to make the move to Arizona.”

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Homes for Heroes program announces 4 grant winners

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Homes for Heroes program announces 4 grant winners


PHOENIX — Four organizations were honored with grants from the Homes for Heroes program that assists veterans with transitional housing, health care and more.

The winners of the grants, which total $750,000, were announced by Gov. Katie Hobbs and the Arizona Department of Veterans’ Services on Tuesday.

Three grants for $200,000 were issued to Axiom Community of Recovery, U.S. Vets – Prescott and Esperanza en Escalante.

Scottsdale Recovery Center was awarded a grant for $150,000.

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“By creating pathways to housing for our veterans, we are helping them realize the opportunity, security and freedom that underpin the Arizona Promise,” Hobbs said. “Working hand in hand with community organizations, we are committed to realizing our goal of ending veteran homelessness in Arizona.”

“Our veterans have sacrificed so much for our country,” ADVS Director John Scott said. “We owe it to them to ensure they have a safe place to sleep, and the support they need to rebuild their lives. With these new investments, we are taking meaningful steps toward that goal.”

What will the organizations do with the grant money?

Axiom is planning to create 30 new transitional housing beds and provide more detox services for veterans in crisis.

The Scottsdale Recovery Center is also adding transitional housing beds and detox services, in addition to pet boarding.

Services in northern Arizona will increase drastically with the U.S. Vets – Prescott organization providing 100 new housing plans at the Fort Whipple campus set to open in Jan. 2026.

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The Tucson-based Esperanza en Escalante will offer 32 veterans emergency housing, detox and pet boarding services in southern Arizona.

The grant program includes $750,000 to help veterans with substance use disorders, mental health conditions and other challenges from military service that increase the risk of homelessness and an additional $500,000 grant to coordinate efforts to reduce homelessness.

In total, $2 million worth of grant financing is dedicated to helping military veterans.

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