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How Arizona's monsoon is changing

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How Arizona's monsoon is changing


PHOENIX — Each summer, thunderstorms tower in our otherwise sunny Arizona sky. Winds shift out of the south and southeast, bringing moisture in all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. That moisture rises and forms thunderstorms in the heat of the day. This is our monsoon.

Much of Arizona typically receives 30 to 50 percent of its annual rainfall during the monsoon months of June, July, August, and September, which helps replenish our dry land and diminish wildfire threats.

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But, the monsoon as we know it is changing. As our atmosphere gets hotter with climate change, it’s able to essentially hold more water vapor and that’s altering how our monsoon behaves.

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“We don’t get as many storms, but when they do come, they’re tending to produce higher rainfall amounts, more intense rainfall, and more intense winds,” says Dr. Christopher Castro with the Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences Department at the University of Arizona.

That’s exactly what we saw play out here in Phoenix last summer. It was our hottest and driest monsoon on record. Sky Harbor only received 0.15 inches of rain. That’s more than 2 inches below normal.

But, what is considered a “normal” amount of monsoon rain has changed a lot in the past 50 years.

Every 10 years, new normals are calculated based on a rolling 30-year average. Our latest update came in 2021, giving us a new average that is based on rainfall data from 1991 to 2020.

This new normal showed an average rainfall in Phoenix for the monsoon season of 2.43 inches of rain. That’s more than a quarter of an inch drier than the previous average, which is a big difference here in the desert!

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Castro and his team at the University of Arizona are leading the way when it comes to research on how climate change is impacting our monsoon. Although not yet published in scientific peer-reviewed journals, they have run experiments simulating how storms move down into the Valley.

They have discovered that a greater number of green spaces, like parks, golf courses, and green landscaping, are leading to fewer storms making it down into the city.

“The presence of all these watered areas is suppressing the amount of instability in the atmosphere. So, it’s harder to initiate storms from the outflow boundaries,” he says.

So, as storms try to move down off of the Mogollon Rim, they are now often getting diverted around the periphery of the Phoenix metro instead of rolling right through it like they used to.

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Scientists like Castro have also seen a broadening of our monsoon ridge, which is impacting our monsoon, too.

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It’s the ridge of high pressure, which sets up near the Four Corners during the summer, that allows monsoon moisture to flow in.

“What we’ve observed in the last 20 years or so, is that the monsoon ridge is growing more intense and more spatially expansive. The bigger and more expansive that ridge is, the more propensity there is for the air to sink from the upper atmosphere. So. it suppresses the atmospheric instability and it makes storms harder to form,” Castro says.

That’s exactly what happened last year. As that ridge of high pressure sat over Arizona, it suppressed storm formation and made it much hotter. Our 2023 monsoon season was the hottest and driest on record in Phoenix.

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2020 was also a so-called “non-soon” with only 2 days of measurable rain in Phoenix. That year, we received 90% of our monsoon rain (0.90 inches) in just 2 hours with one particularly bad storm the night of August 20, 2020.

Castro says that’s the fingerprint of climate change in the desert.

“It’s really about the extremes. The monsoon is, generally all the way around, getting more extreme. So, when we get our heat waves now those are more intense than they used to be and when it rains, it may not rain as frequently as it used to, but it tends to be more intense,” Castro says.

That intensity makes it harder for us to adapt.

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When it’s extreme heat, we see more heat-related deaths. We had 987 heat-related deaths across Arizona last year. 645 of those happened in Maricopa County, mostly during the hottest and driest monsoon on record.

When it’s extreme rainfall, we see more flash flooding and complete destruction near wildfire burn scars since the charred ground can no longer absorb water.

“From the water supply perspective, it’s bad news for recharge of the groundwater table. If you’re drying out the soils and then realizing your precipitation with only a few intense events, more of that precipitation is likely to run off. There’s also a greater danger for wildfires to happen and that totally changes the characteristics of the permeability of the soil. Then, when it rains, that water will immediately wash off very similar to a landslide,” Castro says.

A bigger, broader monsoon ridge also deflects atmospheric disturbances, known as inverted troughs, from tracking through Arizona.

Those disturbances often serve as triggers to get widespread rain and thunderstorm activity going during the monsoon.

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“The expanded monsoon ridge is suppressing the path of those inverted troughs more to the south, so the number of inverted troughs is decreasing. So, the frequency of big precipitation events is decreasing. But when they do occur, they’re occurring in a more moist environment that is favorable for heavier amounts of precipitation,” says Castro.

We’re seeing similar impacts across the country as the number of heavy downpours increases in this warming world.

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While downpours are increasing, periods of drought are increasing too.

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So we are increasing both of these extremes as our climate changes.

Castro says, “We’re going into a world where we have these more dramatic swings in climate variability, whether it’s winter or summer. There’s been this term coined climate whiplash, you go from one extreme to another, either between seasons or within a season. This is devastating from the standpoint of climate and our resiliency to the natural climate because if we’re exceeding the ranges of which our natural and human systems can cope with these whiplash swings, you’re going to go from one year where a dam nearly fails because it’s flooded to a year of devastating wildfires and the ecosystem cannot recover.”





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Arizona

Intense heat and thunderstorms on the way for Arizona

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1 hour ago

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June 18, 2024

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Intense heat and thunderstorms on the way for Arizona


PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Look for sunny and near-normal temperatures across the deserts of the state today, with slightly lighter winds statewide compared to yesterday. In the Valley, temperatures will climb to 105 degrees this afternoon. We’ll be slightly warmer at 107 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

A major weather pattern change is in store for Arizona by the end of this week. High pressure currently situated to our east will shift west, bringing our hottest temperatures of the year so far and ushering in our first monsoon moisture of the season as well.

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for Thursday and Friday for the deserts of the state, including the Phoenix Metro area. High temperatures are likely to climb to near 114 degrees on Thursday and 116 degrees on Friday. Both days are First Alert Weather Days.

As high pressure shifts closer to Arizona, this also produces a southeasterly flow, which will tap into moisture over Northern Mexico and Texas and bring it into New Mexico and Arizona. This will produce daily storm chances in the higher elevations of mainly Eastern Arizona starting Thursday and continuing through at least the weekend. Rain amounts are unlikely to be very significant, and dry lightning could lead to new fire starts.

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Storm chances are slim from Thursday into the weekend, but gusty, outflow winds could bring some blowing dust. We’ll keep you posted. Temperatures look to stay near 113 degrees over the coming weekend.

Copyright 2024 KTVK/KPHO. All rights reserved.



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Arizona

Lakota Ballers gearing up for NABI in Arizona

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8 hours ago

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June 18, 2024

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Lakota Ballers gearing up for NABI in Arizona


RAPID CITY, S.D. (KOTA)- The Lakota Ballers is a team made up of local high school basketball players. The team is coached by Dale Pine, Jr. The Lakota Ballers will play at the Native American Basketball Invitational in Arizona next month.

Copyright 2024 KOTA. All rights reserved.



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Arizona

High-profile Arizona criminal cases database

Published

15 hours ago

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June 17, 2024

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High-profile Arizona criminal cases database


Seven suspects arrested and charged in death of Preston Lord

Arizona Republicans arraigned in ‘fake electors’ case

Aaron Saucedo

Man accused of killing 9 people during serial street shootings

  • Aaron Saucedo, 28, was arrested in April 2017 in connection with serial street shootings that began in August 2015 and ended in July 2016. His next hearing is scheduled for July 15, 2024.

Alex Anthony Madrid

Mesa man charged with rape, murder of teen girl found in a dumpster in 2013

  • Alex Anthony Madrid is facing first degree murder, kidnapping, sex conduct with a minor, molestation of a child, child abuse, sexual abuse, abandonment/concealment of a body and tampering with physical evidence. His trial is set for August 5, 2024.

Angel Mullooly

Three people, including one with Neo-Nazi ties, charged in beating death of Jake Kelly

  • 34-year-old Angel Mullooly is facing murder charges. Cory Young, 44, and Shannon Young, 37, are accused of hindering prosecution.

Anthony Milan Ross

Vegan chef, motivational speaker accused of killing ex-wife and 2 children on Christmas Day 2017

April McLaughlin

Woman accused of keeping dozens of dogs in horrifying conditions at a home in Chandler

  • April McLaughlin pleaded not guilty to the charges in January, 2024. A pre-trial conference is scheduled for June 27, 2024.

Blaze Thibaudeau

Leader of doomsday family back in Arizona to face charges in Gilbert teen’s disappearance

  • Blaze Thibaudeau was reportedly taken by his uncle, Brook Hale, his non-custodial mother, Spring Thibaudeau. Hale, 47, is charged with one count of custodial interference and one count of conspiracy to commit custodial interference. Spring Thibaudeau is still awaiting extradition back to Arizona.

Christopher Rand Hoopes

Man allegedly shoots, kills wife at Tempe home after claiming she ‘startled’ him

  • 36-year-old Christopher Rand Hoopes will be in court July 15, 2024. His trial is scheduled for July 22, 2024.

Cleophus Cooksey

Phoenix man charged in serial killing spree that left 9 dead in 3 weeks

  • Cleophus Cooksey is accused of killing nine people, including his mother and stepfather, in the Phoenix area in 2017.

David Schnirch

Scottsdale luxury car dealer arrested on multiple counts of sexual exploitation, luring girls under 15

  • David Schnirch was arrested in the Summer of 2021 on child sex crime charges. His next hearing is scheduled for July 19, 2024.

DaVonte’ Neal

Former U of A football player charged with murder

  • DaVonte’ Neal is charged with first-degree murder, drive-by-shooting, and discharging a firearm at a structure in the 2017 death of Bryan T. Burns. Neal is expected back in court July 22, 2024.

Essa Williams

Phoenix man accused of shooting officer 8 times in 2021

  • Essa Williams is facing attempted murder charges, accused of gunning down Phoenix police officer Tyler Moldovan in 2021.

Germayne Cunningham

Former Phoenix PD detective and wife accused of killing 7-year-old daughter

  • Pre-trial conference starts August 23, 2024. Trial is scheduled for September 3, 2024.

Ian Mitcham

Man arrested in gruesome murder 2015 of Scottdale woman after DNA evidence was found years later

  • Ian Mitcham was arrested for the murder of Allison Feldman, who was sexually assaulted, strangled, and beaten to death at her Scottsdale home in February 2015. Mitcham will be back in court September 26, 2024.

Isaac King

Avondale man accused of shooting, killing DPS Trooper on Interstate 10

  • Isaac Damon King plead not guilty in the 2018 shooting death of DPS Trooper Tyler Edenhofer.

James Estep

Mesa man accused of sexually assaulting 5 women, teen girl

  • James Estep is being held without bond. His next hearing is scheduled for July 2, 2024.

Jonathon Altland

Man accused of killing Chandler police officer, injuring Gilbert officer after leading them on a car chase

Joshua Ben Anderson

Former White Mountain Apache police officers indicted after hitting and killing woman with squad car

  • Joshua Ben Anderson pled guilty to attempting a cover up after a hit and run in his squad car. His sentencing is August 5, 2024.

Larry Edward Brown Jr

IRS agent indicted in deadly shooting of fellow agent following Phoenix training exercise

  • On August 17, 2023, Special Agent Patrick Bauer was shot during training at a federal gun range located on prison grounds in north Phoenix.

Lori Vallow

Former valley mom convicted in Idaho of killing her kids, now facing charges in Maricopa County

  • Lori Vallow’s next pre-trial conference is set for July 25, 2024.

Octavia Rogers

Phoenix mother accused of killing her 3 kids in 2016

  • Octavia Rogers is facing 3 counts of first degree murder after her three young sons were found stabbed to death.

Raad Almansoori

Man accused in a violent multi-state crime spree, including two stabbings in the Valley and the death of a woman at a New York City hotel room

  • Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell has refused to extradite him to New York until he stands trial for his alleged crimes in Arizona.

Rachel Henry

Phoenix mother accused of suffocating her 3 children to death

  • Rachel Henry is set to appear in court in August 2024. She pleaded not guilty to three counts of first-degree murder in February 2020.

Samuel Bateman

FLDS polygamist leader arraigned in court on child sex abuse charges

  • Samuel Bateman faces 51 felonies. The FBI says he had 20 wives, many of them underage. Ten of his followers, including some of his adult wives, were also charged with aiding him. Sentencing is set for July 15, 2024.

Sophia Simmons

Mom arrested after young daughter found dead in dumpster behind Phoenix business

  • 38-year-old Sophia Simmons is facing a murder charge after her young daughter was found dead in a dumpster behind a business in Phoenix on Christmas Eve 2023. Simmons’ trial is set for September 5, 2024.

Stephanie Davis & Thomas James Desharnais

Prosecutors to seek death penalty for murder of 11-year-old boy in Scottsdale hotel

Terrance Santistevan

Man accused of gunning down two teens in Casa Grande in 2022

  • Terrance Santistevan is in Pinal County jail on charges of first-degree murder. His next court appearance is set for July 22, 2024.

Zion Teasley

Man accused of stabbing, killing Lauren Heike while hiking in North Scottsdale

  • Zion Teasley’s next court hearing is set for September 22, 2024.

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Copyright 2024 KTVK/KPHO. All rights reserved.



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