Arizona
How an influx of Californians could decide Arizona’s election result
An influx of tens of thousands of Californians to Arizona over the past few years could help Kamala Harris win the Grand Canyon State in November, according to one prominent political scientist.
The most recent U.S. Census data shows over 74,000 Californians moved to Arizona in 2022 alone, a traditionally Republican state which has become a key battleground in recent years.
In 2020 Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Arizona by less than 11,000 votes, a major win in a state that backed the Republican firebrand over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016 and voted against Barack Obama in both the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections.
Arizona has undergone a dramatic political change over the past decade and a half, which has seen Democrats make major inroads in what had been a GOP stronghold. In 2010 the Republicans had both Arizona U.S. Senate seats, a supermajority in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature and controlled every statewide office. By contrast now the governor, secretary of state and attorney general are all Democrats and both of the state’s senators were elected on the Democratic ticket, though Kyrsten Sinema later switched to be an independent.
Sinema isn’t standing for re-election in November and polling gives Democrat Ruben Gallego, currently a House member, a clear lead over Republican Kari Lake in the battle to be her successor.
Speaking to Newsweek Mark Shanahan, an expert in U.S. presidential politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said Californian migrants had helped make Arizona competitive for the Democrats.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
He said: “The influx of Californians to Arizona isn’t homogenous. They cut across age boundaries from young tech workers through agricultural laborers to retirees. But they are more likely to have a history of voting Democrat, or at least be anti-Trump and willing to be swayed towards Harris over Trump and Gallego over Lake.
“Incomers are less likely to come from rural Republican stock and the net effect is to turn this once ruby red state a much paler shade. Maricopa and Pinal Counties—the most populous in the state—are now seen as far more pro-Democrat while the east and west of the state is staunchly Republican.”
Referring to the 2020 presidential election Shanahan added: “The problem for Republicans is that most of those moving from California head to the Phoenix and Tuscon areas and they are swaying the voting balance. Relatively few thousand new Democrat votes could make all the difference is a very tightly contested race.”
However, Dafydd Townley, who teaches American politics at the University of Portsmouth, said the Arizona presidential battle is unlikely to be “decided” by Californian migrants and instead pointed to abortion as a potentially decisive issue.
He said: “As in previous polls, Arizona will be a key state in the election. There is an assumption that those migrating to Arizona will be Democrats, however, California does have pockets of strong Republican voters that might be included in those leaving the Golden State. It’s unlikely that the electoral votes for Arizona will be decided on this one factor.
“Reproductive rights are expected to be a key feature of the campaign in Arizona when voters will decide whether to protect abortion rights within the State Constitution. Whether those 74,000 former Californians will be decisive in enshrining those rights will only be revealed in November.”
Newsweek contacted representatives of the 2024 Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment via email.
An AARP poll of 600 likely Arizona voters released on Tuesday put Trump ahead of Harris by two points, with the backing of 49 percent of respondents versus 47 percent for the current vice president. The poll was conducted between September 24 and October 1 with a four-point margin of error.
Arizona
Make-A-Wish Arizona creates sea turtle adventure for San Tan Valley boy
Boats, beaches, and buckets of fun! Just the way you’d expect a boy to spend his Florida vacation!
But there was something else 11-year-old Miles Boyd got to do last year when he and his family traveled to Florida. It was a sea turtle adventure that truly became the trip of a lifetime.
“I had never been to the ocean before,” explained Miles. “So see that just wowed me. It was amazing!”
Miles and his family also got to see baby sea turtles on the beach at night.
“The ocean is so mysterious,” says Miles. “It’s such a big place, and the fact that these turtles can move but are so tiny and when they go in the ocean, they get to hundreds of pounds.”
In so many ways, the trip to Palm Beach County, Florida, was a dream vacation for Miles and his family, but it only came after what was a living nightmare.
“I couldn’t imagine losing him,” says Miles’ mom, Natasha.
It was the harsh reality that Natasha had to face after learning her son Miles had a cancerous brain tumor.
“The world just stopped,” Natasha says about the moment she found out the devastating news. “I just sat on the floor and cried.”
Even Miles admits he was scared.
“I’m just a kid, you know what I mean?” he says. “It’s a lot to handle all at once.”
After three brain surgeries, countless hours of therapy and rehab, and having to take a chemo medication twice daily, Miles proved to the world he is a true survivor!
And his trip to Florida, through Make-A-Wish Arizona, proved to be the medication he never knew he needed.
Miles explains that the trip motivated him to keep going.
“It showed me that I made it to this car, and I can keep going,” he says. “I started at the lowest of lows, and now, I’m on a beach – it just gave me confidence and motivated me that I could keep going.”
Last year alone, Make-A-Wish Arizona granted 476 wishes; they’ve also fulfilled more than 8,500 since being founded in 1980.
Across the Globe, Make-A-Wish has granted more than 650,000 wishes since 1980
Miles and Nick Ciletti will co-host Make-A-Wish Arizona’s Wish Ball on Saturday! To learn more about Make-A-Wish Arizona, click here.
Arizona
11 illegal Indian national truck drivers arrested at Arizona border last month
Eleven illegal Indian national truck drivers were arrested at the Arizona border in the month of February.
The Yuma Sector Border Patrol arrested 11 total Indian national truck drivers in Yuma, Arizona in February 2026.
According to a Facebook post by the Yuma Sector Border Patrol, all 11 truck drivers held commercial drivers licenses from the states of Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California. All were “found to be present in the United States illegally.”
“Border Patrol remains committed to upholding immigration laws and protecting our communities,” the post continued.
Arizona
Arizona Independent Party to appeal ruling erasing name
Ballot processing at Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center
Election workers process ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in Phoenix.
The Arizona Independent Party will appeal a court ruling that invalidated its name, guaranteeing more legal limbo and possibly a new chapter of confusion in the effort to give unaffiliated voters a viable third-party option at the ballot box.
Party chair Paul Johnson confirmed he would appeal the ruling from Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Greg Como, which forces the party to revert to its prior name: the No Labels Party. The ruling ordered elections officials in Arizona to follow suit.
The decision was a high-profile loss for Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, who Como said had permitted a “bait and switch” on voters by allowing the name change.
“We were given due process, the judge did a fair job,” Johnson said. “I don’t agree with his final position, but I like the way our country works in terms of the rule of the law.”
“I don’t feel discouraged at all,” Johnson said, adding that an appeal could proceed in federal court and raise claims of First and Fourteenth Amendment violations.
It is unclear how the judge’s order, if it stands, could impact candidates who submitted signatures to qualify for the ballot under the Arizona Independent Party label.
“The commission’s position has been that this would cause confusion,” said Tom Collins, executive director of the Clean Elections Commission, which was part of the case. “This is an example of that confusion.”
The number of signatures required to make the ballot is a percentage of registered voters for each party, but unaffiliated candidates had to collect roughly six times as many as Republican or Democratic candidates. Running with the Arizona Independent Party meant only 1,771 signatures were needed.
Como’s order was signed March 19 but made public on March 25, after a March 23 deadline for candidates to file signatures to make the ballot.
“Unfortunately due to the court order, this question is left unaddressed,” said Calli Jones, a spokesperson for Fontes. “This question will be left to the challenge process or other court proceedings.”
Clarity could come through any lawsuits filed challenging Arizona Independent Party candidates’ signatures. No such challenges had been filed as of March 25, and the deadline is April 6.
What’s preventing ‘Arizona Nazi Party’ or the ‘Arizona Anarchists’?
Last October, Fontes agreed to change the name of the No Labels Party to the Arizona Independent Party, saying to do so was not explicitly prohibited in law. The change was done at the request of Johnson, a former Phoenix mayor and advocate for open primaries. To Johnson, the party is something of a can’t-beat-them-join-them way to put independent candidates on an even playing field with those from the two major parties.
The name change quickly led to a trio of lawsuits filed by the state’s voter education agency, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission, and the Arizona Republican Party and Arizona Democratic Party. Those cases were merged into one, which ultimately led to the March ruling.
The commission and political parties argued the name change would create confusion for voters and election officials in terms of distinguishing when someone wanted to be part of the new party versus and independent voter in a colloquial sense, which means not registering with any party. Fontes did not dispute there could be confusion.
State law does not directly address when a political party wants to change its name, but Como said that request should follow the process for creating a new party. That includes gathering signatures from supportive voters. Como has been on the bench since 2015.
Como raised concerns of transparency, noting that voters who registered for the old party may not support the new party name. He said a party could gather support with an “innocuous sounding name,” then change it entirely. Como offered a grave example.
“Would the same 41,000 people who signed petitions to recognize the No Labels Party have signed to support the ‘Arizona Nazi Party’ or the ‘Arizona Anarchists’?” he wrote.
His ruling is guided by and affirms Arizona court precedent that statewide elected officials’ powers are only those that are given explicitly to them in statute or the constitution.
Legal challenges needed to bring clarity
Jones, Fontes’ spokesperson, said the office had no power to address whether signatures were valid, because the office presumes “anyone who met the requirements at the time of filing their signatures are valid candidates.” Fontes, a Democrat seeking reelection this year, said he would not appeal the ruling given the “fast approach of the election and the challenging job election administrators have before them.”
He also stood by his decision, but said the court ruled with voters. “Both approaches, being reasonable, the Court entered an order with a lean towards the voters, not the party leaders,” Fontes said.
Como did not find Fontes’ approach was reasonable, saying it was beyond Fontes’ authority.
“The judge noted that even Fontes admitted this issue would cause confusion for the voters, but Fontes disregarded that concern and the obvious truth, and proceeded to allow them to continue the charade,” Arizona Republic Party Chair Sergio Arellano said, responding to the ruling.
That Fontes will not appeal was welcome, because “he has already cost taxpayers too much money” and “further eroded trust in our election officials at a time when that trust is already at an all-time low,” Arellano said.
Eleven candidates are running for office with the Arizona Independent Party name, or whatever it turns out to be. That includes candidates for Congress, governor and state Legislature. Hugh Lytle, the party’s preferred candidate for governor, said in a statement the ruling proves “how far the political parties will go to protect their grip on power.”
Lytle is among the candidates who could face a challenge to his just over 6,000 signatures. Of those, just 132 were gathered via the state’s online system, which requires verification before signing. The remaining could be more vulnerable to objections.
Ultimately, Lytle said, the judge’s ruling wouldn’t change much.
“We are on the ballot,” he said.
Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669.
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