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How an influx of Californians could decide Arizona’s election result

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How an influx of Californians could decide Arizona’s election result


An influx of tens of thousands of Californians to Arizona over the past few years could help Kamala Harris win the Grand Canyon State in November, according to one prominent political scientist.

The most recent U.S. Census data shows over 74,000 Californians moved to Arizona in 2022 alone, a traditionally Republican state which has become a key battleground in recent years.

In 2020 Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Arizona by less than 11,000 votes, a major win in a state that backed the Republican firebrand over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016 and voted against Barack Obama in both the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections.

Arizona has undergone a dramatic political change over the past decade and a half, which has seen Democrats make major inroads in what had been a GOP stronghold. In 2010 the Republicans had both Arizona U.S. Senate seats, a supermajority in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature and controlled every statewide office. By contrast now the governor, secretary of state and attorney general are all Democrats and both of the state’s senators were elected on the Democratic ticket, though Kyrsten Sinema later switched to be an independent.

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Sinema isn’t standing for re-election in November and polling gives Democrat Ruben Gallego, currently a House member, a clear lead over Republican Kari Lake in the battle to be her successor.

Speaking to Newsweek Mark Shanahan, an expert in U.S. presidential politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said Californian migrants had helped make Arizona competitive for the Democrats.

The influx of people to Arizona from California over recent years could “make all the difference is a very tightly contested race” in November according to one political scientist.

Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty

He said: “The influx of Californians to Arizona isn’t homogenous. They cut across age boundaries from young tech workers through agricultural laborers to retirees. But they are more likely to have a history of voting Democrat, or at least be anti-Trump and willing to be swayed towards Harris over Trump and Gallego over Lake.

“Incomers are less likely to come from rural Republican stock and the net effect is to turn this once ruby red state a much paler shade. Maricopa and Pinal Counties—the most populous in the state—are now seen as far more pro-Democrat while the east and west of the state is staunchly Republican.”

Referring to the 2020 presidential election Shanahan added: “The problem for Republicans is that most of those moving from California head to the Phoenix and Tuscon areas and they are swaying the voting balance. Relatively few thousand new Democrat votes could make all the difference is a very tightly contested race.”

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However, Dafydd Townley, who teaches American politics at the University of Portsmouth, said the Arizona presidential battle is unlikely to be “decided” by Californian migrants and instead pointed to abortion as a potentially decisive issue.

He said: “As in previous polls, Arizona will be a key state in the election. There is an assumption that those migrating to Arizona will be Democrats, however, California does have pockets of strong Republican voters that might be included in those leaving the Golden State. It’s unlikely that the electoral votes for Arizona will be decided on this one factor.

“Reproductive rights are expected to be a key feature of the campaign in Arizona when voters will decide whether to protect abortion rights within the State Constitution. Whether those 74,000 former Californians will be decisive in enshrining those rights will only be revealed in November.”

Newsweek contacted representatives of the 2024 Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment via email.

An AARP poll of 600 likely Arizona voters released on Tuesday put Trump ahead of Harris by two points, with the backing of 49 percent of respondents versus 47 percent for the current vice president. The poll was conducted between September 24 and October 1 with a four-point margin of error.

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Live coverage: What’s happening as No. 16 Utah visits Arizona State

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Live coverage: What’s happening as No. 16 Utah visits Arizona State


The Deseret News is providing live coverage of Friday’s game between Utah and Arizona State. Check back for updates throughout the game.

Second quarter

Arizona State 13, Utah 6

8:38 — The Sun Devils went into lead, even if their starting quarterback, Sam Leavitt, went out after taking a hard hit.

Backup Jeff Sims scored on a 2-yard run for the Sun Devils’ second straight touchdown drive. This time, the extra point was good. Arizona State 13, Utah 6.

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It was a long, time-killing drive: Arizona State moved the ball 72 yards on 13 plays and took 7:27 off the clock.

First quarter

Utah 6, Arizona State 6

2:04 — Arizona State, behind its redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt, had an impressive drive to tie the game.

Leavitt hit Jordyn Tyson for a 26-yard touchdown pass where Tyson took a short pass and ran the final 10 yards before diving in for the touchdown. ASU, though, missed the extra point. Utah 6, Arizona State 6.

Leavitt converted a third and long and a fourth and 7 with his legs to keep the drive alive. On the fourth-down play, he spun out of a collapsing pocket and picked up 9 yards on the play before the touchdown play. It was an 11-play, 81-yard drive.

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7:12 — Utah added another Cole Becker field goal, this one from 40 yards, off an Arizona State turnover. Utah 6, Arizona State 0.

The Sun Devils turned it over when Logan Fano hit Sam Leavitt as he tried to pass, and the short, errant pass was picked off by Junior Tafuna with one hand as he fought off a block at the Arizona State 28.

9:57 — Utah’s first drive under Cam Rising reached the Arizona State 29 before stalling. The 12-play, 46-yard drive ended with a 48-yard Cole Becker field goal. Utah 3, Arizona State 0.

Rising completed 1 of 5 passes for 9 yards on the drive, while Micah Bernard ran for 19 yards on three carries to pace the Utes.

One area of concern, though — Rising was rolled up on taking a hit early in the drive and has been limping ever since.

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15:00 — It’s official — Cam Rising is back for the Utes.

He is on the field for Utah’s first drive.

How to watch the game

Utah’s game against Arizona State will be televised on ESPN, with kickoff at 8:30 p.m. MDT.

The game will also be streamed at espn.com/watch.

Pregame prep

Here are a few stories to get you ready for Utah’s game against Arizona State.

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WATCH: Harris speaks at campaign event in Scottsdale, Arizona

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WATCH: Harris speaks at campaign event in Scottsdale, Arizona


Vice President Kamala Harris wrapped up a three-day western swing with a campaign event Friday in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Watch Harris’ remarks in the player above.

Earlier in the day, she participated virtually in a White House briefing with President Joe Biden on the recovery effort from hurricanes Milton and Helene.

“The bottom line is this: We are in this for the long haul,” said Harris as she sought to reassure those who endured losses from the hurricane that they would get help from the government.

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WATCH: Biden and Harris discuss federal response after Helene and Milton strike U.S.

Biden went after his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, saying that he’s “just the biggest mouth” for disinformation about the government’s response to the hurricanes. The president added that the disinformation is a “permanent state of being for some extreme people,” but that he believes the country as a whole wants facts and bipartisan cooperation to address natural disasters.



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A reporter’s short journey from Phoenix to Newark

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A reporter’s short journey from Phoenix to Newark


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Even though I grew up across the river in New Jersey, I didn’t know a ton about Delaware. I knew Joe Biden was from here and Joe Flacco played here.

I left New Jersey to go to college at Arizona State at the Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. My career in Arizona was long and is filled with highlights, I reported on U.S. Senate debates, college football games and pro-Palestine encampments while serving as the ASU student news publication’s editor-in-chief until I graduated in May.

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In Arizona, I usually covered state and local policy and government. It was a circus, and elections from the local to federal level were razor-thin. It was fun.

I also covered some sports in my time at Arizona. I was lucky enough to cover ASU’s last football game in the Rose Bowl as a member of the Pac-12, and directed and contributed to coverage of Pac-12’s conference realignment.

I joined The News Journal staff in August, unsure of what happens in Delaware and what people cared about. So far, I have been blessed to be given opportunities to dive into the local and fast-paced coverage that defined my time in the desert. Delaware is way different than anywhere else in the country and has a unique set of advantages and problems.

I’m happy to be here in Delaware and hope to dive deeper into topics that Delawareans care about. I cover local government in New Castle County and breaking news, but I want to cast a wide net. Shoot me an email if you think something should be covered; I want to hear from you.

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Here is a Q&A to get to know me better. Follow my socials to get all the updates.

You came to this role from Arizona, a very different state than Delaware in many ways. Are there already issues you see resonating in both places right now, especially with voters?

All of Arizona’s policies, especially from the Republicans in the state Legislature, made a lot of noise. A lot of them enacted sweeping changes and were very black-and-white. Covering politics in Delaware requires getting into the minutiae of the law and what is changing for whom. One issue that I was surprised to see in Delaware that is similar to Arizona is the lack of road safety. It shocked me to learn that pedestrians die at similar rates in both states, which could not be any different in every way. Neither state has done much to mitigate the risk.

What do you think?: We welcome voices from all perspectives to shares views on issues of the day

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We live in a very challenging time for newspapers and journalism in general. What made you choose this as a career and what role do you think your generation needs to play to protect the Fourth Estate and keep it viable and trustworthy for the communities we serve?

Anyone can access any kind of information at any time. Because of this kind of access, correct and incorrect things can get mixed up and presented equally. The News Journal and every other established local news publication play an invaluable role in communities across the country. I wanted to contribute to quality and reliable local news in any way I could.

What do you like to do for fun? Any interesting hobbies or interests?

I have been a lifeguard on the beach in Asbury Park every summer for six years, so I like to swim, surf, fish and row over everything. I am in the market for some waves on the Delaware beaches, so let me know any good spots I should check out.

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