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What’s In The Cards For Alaska Air’s Q2?

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What’s In The Cards For Alaska Air’s Q2?


Alaska Air (NYSE: ALK) will report its Q2 2023 results on Tuesday, July 25. We expect the company’s revenues to come in at $2.7 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $2.8 billion. This would mark year-over-year growth of about 2%. Earnings will likely come in at about $2.60 on a per-share and adjusted basis, slightly below the $2.68 consensus estimate. See our interactive dashboard analysis on Alaska Air Earnings Preview for more details on how the company’s revenues and earnings will likely trend for the quarter. So, what are some of the trends that are likely to drive Alaska Air’s results?

The company will likely continue to benefit from the robust travel demand. It should see a continued rise in total available seat miles, and the passenger load factor will likely remain strong. However, it will be a tough comparison with the prior-year quarter, which saw a record travel demand. The average ticket price has also cooled this year while overall capacity has expanded. Looking at Q1 2023, Alaska Air’s revenues were up 31%, led by a 14% rise in capacity and a 15% rise in average revenue per available seat mile to 13.98 cents.

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Looking at the bottom line, Alaska Air reported a $0.62 loss per share on an adjusted basis in Q1, compared to a $1.33 loss per share in the prior-year quarter. The company’s average fuel price per gallon stood at $3.41 in Q1, and it should be lower in Q2 vs. its prior-year figure of $3.76. The average U.S. Gulf Coast Kerosene Jet fuel price per gallon fell from $3.90 (end of June last year) to $2.40 now. Now that fuel prices have cooled compared to last year, the company will likely see its operating margin expand. After seeing a sharp decline from 12% in 2019 to -50% in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic, Alaska Air’s operating margin has recovered to 1% in 2022. Our Alaska Air’s Operating Income Comparison dashboard has more details.

Looking at ALK’s stock price, we believe that it has some room for growth. We estimate Alaska Air’s valuation to be $60 per share, about 14% above its current price of $52. Our forecast is based on a 10x P/E multiple for ALK and expected earnings of $6.21 on a per-share and adjusted basis for the full-year 2023. The company has guided for adjusted EPS to be in the range of $5.50 to $7.50 for the full-year 2023. The company expects its pre-tax margin to be between 14% and 17% for the year, implying margin expansion in the coming quarters. Alaska Air’s margin metric is partly being weighed down by the costs associated with the retirement of its Airbus fleet. Looking forward, the company is likely to have a better margin profile with lower costs associated with pilot training.

While Alaska Air’s stock looks like it has some room for growth, check out how Alaska Air Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a portfolio that aims for long-term growth? Here’s a value portfolio that’s done much better than the market since 2016.

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Alaska

State of Alaska will defend its right to facilitate oil and gas development

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State of Alaska will defend its right to facilitate oil and gas development


Last week, Superior Court Judge Andrew Guidi indicated he will rule that Alaska does not have authority to permit access across its lands to facilitate oil and gas development on the North Slope.

The Alaska Dept. of Natural Resources plans to fight and appeal any final adverse ruling that undermines the state’s constitutional interests in resource development.

The Department of Natural Resources has issued a permit allowing Oil Search Alaska (OSA) to cross the Kuparuk River Unit, operated by Conoco Phillips Alaska, to develop the Pikka Unit. As described in the State’s brief to the court, “the denial of such access implicates the delay of development of millions of barrels of oil and billions of dollars of public revenues.”

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“The State of Alaska has a constitutional obligation to maximize the development of our resources,” DNR Commissioner John Boyle said on Nov. 22. “We have to confirm with the Supreme Court that we have the authority to permit access for all developers to ensure we can meet this obligation.”

Once the Superior Court issues the final judgement, Alaska will be able to file its appeal. This is expected to occur in the coming weeks.

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Close encounters with the Juneau kind: Woman reports strange lights in Southeast Alaska skies

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Close encounters with the Juneau kind: Woman reports strange lights in Southeast Alaska skies


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – For Juneau resident Tamara Roberts, taking photos of the northern lights was just a hobby — that is until a different light altogether caught her eye.

Capturing what she’s called strange lights in the skies of Juneau near her home on Thunder Mountain, Roberts said she’s taken 30 to 40 different videos and photos of the lights since September 2021.

“Anytime I’m out, I’m pretty sure that I see something at least a couple times a week,” Roberts said. “I’m definitely not the only one that’s seeing them. And if people just pay more attention, they’ll notice that those aren’t stars and those aren’t satellites.”

Roberts has been a professional photographer for over 20 years. She said she changed interests from photographing people to wildlife and landscape when she moved to Juneau 13 years ago.

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Once she started making late-night runs trying to capture the northern lights, she said that’s when she started encountering her phenomenon.

Roberts said not every encounter takes place above Thunder Mountain: her most recent sighting happened near the Mendenhall Glacier while her stepmom was visiting from Arizona.

“She’d never been here before, so we got up and we drove up there, and lo and behold, there it was,” Roberts said. “I have some family that absolutely thinks it’s what it is, and I have some family that just doesn’t care.”

Roberts described another recent encounter near the glacier she said was a little too close for comfort. While driving up alone in search of the northern lights, she expected to see other fellow photographers out for the same reason as she normally does.

But this night was different.

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“I’ve gone up there a million times by myself, and this night, particularly, it was clear, it was cold and the [aurora] KP index was high … so as I’m driving up and there’s nobody there. And I was like, Okay, I’ll just wait and somebody will show up.’ So I backed up into the parking spot underneath the street light — the only light that’s really there on that side of the parking lot — and I turned all my lights off, left my car running, looked around, and there was that light right there, next to the mountain.”

Roberts said after roughly 10 minutes of filming the glowing light, still not seeing anyone else around, she started to get a strange feeling that maybe she should leave.

“I just got this terrible gut feeling,” Roberts said. “I started to pull out of my parking spot and my car sputtered. [It] scared me so bad that I just gunned the accelerator, but my headlights … started like flashing and getting all crazy.

“I had no headlights, none all the way home, no headlights.”

According to the Juneau Police Department, there haven’t been any reports of strange lights in the sky since Sept. 14, when police say a man was reportedly “yelling about UFOs in the downtown area.”

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Responding officers said they did not locate anything unusual, and no arrests were made following the man’s report.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service in Juneau also said within the last seven days, no reports of unusual activity in the skies had been reported. The Federal Aviation Administration in Juneau did not respond.

With more and more whistleblowers coming forward in Congressional hearings, Roberts said she thinks it’s only a matter of time before the truth is out there.

“Everybody stayed so quiet all these years for the fear of being mocked,” Roberts said. “Now that people are starting to come out, I think that people should just let the reality be what it is, and let the evidence speak for itself, because they’re here, and that’s all there is to it.”

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

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‘We’re ready to test ourselves’: UAA women’s hoops faces tallest task yet in another edition of the Great Alaska Shootout

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‘We’re ready to test ourselves’: UAA women’s hoops faces tallest task yet in another edition of the Great Alaska Shootout


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Heading into Friday’s game with a 6-1 record, Alaska Anchorage women’s basketball is faced with a tall task.

The Seawolves are set to face Division I Troy in the opening round of the 2024 Great Alaska Shootout. Friday’s game is the first meeting between the two in program history.

“We’re gonna get after it, hopefully it goes in the hoop for us,” Seawolves head coach Ryan McCarthy said. “We’re gonna do what we do. We’re not going to change it just because it’s a shootout. We’re going to press these teams and we’re going to try to make them uncomfortable. We’re excited to test ourselves.”

Beginning the season 1-4, the Trojans have faced legitimate competition early. Troy has played two ranked opponents to open the season, including the 2023 national champion and current top-10 ranked Louisiana State University on Nov. 18. The Trojans finished runner-up in the Sun Belt Conference with a 15-3 record last season.

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“At the end of the day, they’re women’s basketball players too. They’re the same age as us and they might look bigger, faster and stronger, but we have some great athletes here,” junior guard Elaina Mack said. “We’re more disciplined, we know that we put in a lot of work, and we have just as good of a chance to win this thing as anybody else does.”

The 41st edition of the tournament is also set to feature Vermont and North Dakota State. The two Div. I squads will battle first ahead of UAA’s match Friday night.

All teams will also play Saturday in a winner and loser bracket to determine final results.

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