Alaska
Election Day in Alaska: When to expect results, and what to look for • Alaska Beacon
On Election Day, polling stations are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and the first initial results should be posted online about 9:15 p.m., based on prior schedules.
In the state’s closest races, a winner won’t become apparent until Nov. 20, when the state tabulates the results of its ranked choice elections.
The closest races likely will include the state’s U.S. House election and the ballot measure seeking to repeal ranked choice voting.
Carol Beecher, director of the Division of Elections, said by email that results updates will likely come on a similar schedule to 2022. That year, the first results were posted at 9:11 p.m. and were updated until shortly after 2 a.m. the following morning. Election Day results were again updated about 4 p.m. the following day.
Election Day results will include ballots cast on Election Day, plus early votes (those given at polling stations where voters present an ID) cast by the end of the day on Halloween.
Some absentee votes (usually sent by mail and subject to later ID verification) will also be included, but we won’t know how many — that’s determined by how quickly the state review board operates.
If a mailed-in absentee ballot was postmarked on or before Election Day, state law allows it to be counted if it arrives on or before Nov. 15 (if mailed from within the United States) or Nov. 20 (if mailed internationally). Historically, most absentee ballots arrive within one week of Election Day.
As more absentee ballots arrive and are counted, the Division of Elections is scheduled to update election results on Nov. 12 and Nov. 15.
Those updates will only include voters’ first choices. If a race has three or more candidates and none of them have at least 50% of the first-choice votes, the Division of Elections will use ranked choice voting to determine a winner.
On Nov. 20, the last-place finisher will be eliminated, and voters who picked that person will have their votes go to their second choice. If they don’t have a second choice, their ballot will be “exhausted” and not count for any of the remaining candidates.
The elimination process will continue until only two candidates remain, and the person with the greatest number of votes will be declared the winner.
The Division of Elections could offer an immediate ranked choice tabulation and update it as more ballots arrive, but when ranked choice voting was established by voters in 2020, the division’s then-director said that might be confusing for voters, and as a matter of policy, the division does only one tabulation.
U.S. House race result is likely to wait
That wait for tabulation could mean a wait for Alaska’s close-run U.S. House election, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola is being challenged by Republican Nick Begich, Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and imprisoned, out-of-state Democratic candidate Eric Hafner.
In the August primary election, Peltola had more than 50% of the vote, but in the months since then, polling indicates that the race has tightened, with Begich’s odds helped by the fact that two trailing Republicans — including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom — withdrew after the primary.
Howe and Hafner aren’t expected to receive many first choice votes, but if the margin between Peltola and Begich remains small, their supporters’ second-choice votes could be decisive once tabulation takes place.
Eight candidates in the presidential election
Alaska’s local elections have no more than four listed candidates, but the presidential election has eight, which makes it possible that an official winner won’t be declared until Nov. 20.
Republicans have won every presidential election in Alaska since 1964, and Republican candidate Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win Alaska this year as well.
With eight candidates in the race, it’s possible that Trump fails to exceed 50% of the first-choice votes, leaving the race to be decided until the ranked choice tabulation.
Ballot measures and judges could be decided early
Alaska’s two ballot measures aren’t subject to ranked choice tabulation — they’re a simple up or down vote, which means that we don’t have to wait until the Nov. 20 tabulation day.
Preelection polling presented to the Alaska Chamber of Commerce in October showed that Ballot Measure 1 — which would increase the state’s minimum wage, mandate sick leave and ban mandatory political and religious meetings — has a significant lead among voters. It’s expected to pass easily, and Election Day results will reveal whether that expectation holds true.
Ballot Measure 2 — which would repeal the state’s ranked choice general election and open primary election system — is too close to predict, polling indicates. Polling earlier in the summer found that “yes” to the repeal was ahead, but that’s changed, with “no” having a lead more recently. It’s still within the margin of error, however.
While it’s possible that Election Day results will give yes or no a definitive lead, it’s more likely that we won’t know for certain until about a week after Election Day, when more absentee ballots are counted.
Nineteen judges are also on the ballot statewide. Voters can choose to vote yes or no on whether to retain them. It’s extraordinarily unusual for voters to reject a judge, but there is a campaign to evict one of them, Adolf Zeman of Anchorage, for a legal decision on the state’s correspondence school program. No polling is available for that election, which is one to watch on Election Day.
Will polls operate correctly?
The Alaska Division of Elections has struggled this year with a variety of missteps, including the failure to open all polling stations on time during the primary election.
Two years ago, ballots from a handful of remote towns failed to reach Juneau after Election Day, meaning that they weren’t counted in the ranked choice tally. Only voters’ first choices were considered.
Ahead of the general election, there’s already been one significant problem: Absentee voters in three Southwest Alaska towns received the wrong ballots, and more than 90 had to revote as a result.
Will Election Day voters differ from advance voters?
Four years ago, 361,400 Alaskans voted in the 2020 presidential election. This year, Michael McDonald, a Florida-based political scientist and an expert in voter turnout, expects slightly lower turnout and about 355,000 votes cast.
Through Friday, 95,415 people had already cast ballots, representing more than a quarter of the expected total turnout. Early voting — done in person, with IDs verified on site — has set an all-time record.
Early and absentee voters combined have been disproportionately Republican. Altogether, more than 33% of advance votes through Nov. 1 came from registered Republicans. Statewide, Republicans make up just under 24% of registered voters.
Registered Democrats have also been voting in unusually large numbers — they represent over 12% of registered voters but more than 17% of votes cast so far.
Election Day results will determine whether those figures represent a larger trend or not.
Conservative Republicans are likely to gain in the state Senate — but how much?
The Alaska Senate is governed by a 17-member supermajority coalition that includes nine Democrats and eight Republicans.
One member of that coalition, Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks, isn’t running for re-election, and his seat is likely to be taken by either Republican Mike Cronk or independent Savannah Fletcher. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bert Williams is also running.
Cronk is inclined toward a Republican-led majority, rather than the current balanced coalition, while Fletcher favors the status quo. Cronk beat Fletcher by a small margin in the August primary.
In Eagle River, coalition Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick is being challenged by Republican Jared Goecker, who also prefers a Republican-first option in the Senate. If Goecker fails to reach 50% of first-choice votes, the second-choice votes of those who prefer Democratic candidate Lee Hammermeister — expected to finish third — could push Merrick over the top.
On the Kenai Peninsula, current coalition member Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, R-Nikiski, is being challenged by Republican Ben Carpenter, who also prefers a Republican-led majority. Bjorkman led Carpenter in the August primary. A Democrat is running as a third option, and Democratic voters who prefer Bjorkman as a second option could be decisive.
If they’re close, any or all of those three races could be decided on tabulation day. A fourth race could be decided on Election Day. Sen. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, is being challenged by Republican Leslie Hajdukovich. Because there are only two candidates, ranked choice voting won’t be involved, unless write-in votes push the first-place finisher below 50%.
Control of the Alaska House could flip or solidify after Tuesday
The Alaska House currently has 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats and five independents.
Thomas Baker, who changed his party affiliation to independent after the legislative session, is still listed as a Republican on the Legislature’s website.
Those legislators are split into a predominantly Republican coalition majority and a predominantly Democratic coalition minority.
Because two Republicans aren’t a member of the majority, Republicans depend on the support of three non-Republicans from rural Alaska districts in order to maintain control.
If mainstream Republicans win contested elections on Tuesday, they could achieve unilateral control. If independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans win, it’s possible that the predominantly Democratic coalition will take back the majority it had for six years until 2022.
In Ketchikan, incumbent independent Rep. Dan Ortiz isn’t running for reelection and is likely to be replaced by Republican Jeremy Bynum, who had just short of 49% of the vote in the August primary election.
That Republican gain could be balanced on the North Slope, where Baker has faced a difficult reelection campaign against two Democrats running against him. Baker had just 29% of the vote in a three-way August primary election.
Republicans are trying to oust Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, with a more mainstream challenger, Republican Jubilee Underwood. Eastman has been excluded from the House majority, and if Underwood were to replace him, it would net a seat for the current majority.
Conversely, Rep. Craig Johnson, R-Anchorage and a member of the current majority, is facing a tough election against coalition-minded Republican Chuck Kopp, a former legislator seeking a return to the House. Kopp beat Johnson by more than 20 percentage points in the August primary, and the two are repeating that race on Tuesday.
Several other races are effectively head-to-head tossups entering Tuesday. In Fairbanks, Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert is being challenged by Republican Bart LeBon, a former representative whom Dibert defeated two years ago by a small margin.
In Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid beat incumbent Republican Rep. Stanley Wright by 35 votes out of more than 1,200 cast in the August primary after losing to Wright by 72 votes of 3,772 cast in 2022; they’re rerunning their race on Tuesday.
Also in Anchorage, Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe beat independent challenger Walter Featherly by just 121 votes out of more than 3,200 cast in the August primary, and both have been campaigning hard ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
In South Anchorage, independent Ky Holland won a four-way August primary, but Republicans have now consolidated around Republican candidate Lucy Bauer, setting up a head-to-head race to replace incumbent Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw, who is not seeking reelection.
Other potentially close races include more than two candidates and could require ranked choice tabulation to resolve:
- House District 6 in Homer, where Republican Rep. Sarah Vance is being challenged by independent Brent Johnson and Republican Dawson Slaughter
- Anchorage’s House District 15, where Republican Mia Costello is seeking to return to the state House to fill a seat vacated by Republican Rep. Tom McKay. Democrat Denny Wells is challenging her but could have his odds spoiled by perennial candidate Dustin Darden, who is running as a Democrat.
- Republican Rebecca Schwanke is likely the favorite to replace Cronk in Interior Alaska’s House District 36, but she faces three opponents — Democrat Brandon Kowalski, fellow Republican Pam Goode, and Libertarian James Fields, who has suspended his campaign.
YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.
Alaskans are still paying high prices for oil.
We are paying outrageously high prices for a resource from our own ground while seeing too little benefit. This is not a resource problem. It is a system problem. And it is fixable.
When oil prices rise, Alaska should not just collect more revenue. It should capture more value and return it to Alaskans in a way that is timely, predictable and meaningful.
There is a clear path to do that. When oil prices rise above certain thresholds, the state can be structured to capture a larger share of that increase and return a portion of it to Alaskans more quickly.
This is not a new concept. Alaska has adjusted its fiscal system before in response to changing economic conditions. It can and should do it again.
First, the state can structure its production taxes so that when prices spike, the public share increases accordingly. If companies benefit from higher global prices, the state should as well.
Second, a portion of the additional revenue should be automatically reserved for immediate relief, not debated months later.
That could mean energy rebates, fuel cost offsets or direct payments tied to price increases, so people get this benefit when they are paying higher costs.
Third, relief efforts should be targeted where they are needed most. In many parts of Alaska, especially rural communities, energy costs are not just high; they are a barrier to living in your own home.
When geopolitical events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine spike prices and disrupt energy supply, those rural energy costs skyrocket, as described in a recent Alaska Beacon op-ed written by a chief scientist at the Alaska Center for Energy and Power and the president of the Alaska Federation of Natives. Any serious policy must recognize and address this reality.
To get there, we have to stop leaving our fair share of Alaska’s resource income on the table.
We also need the will to implement a forward-thinking energy policy that breaks our dependence on overpriced oil and gas.
This means eliminating outdated oil and gas tax credits that still pay out even when those companies are highly profitable, closing loopholes and special carve-outs that reduce what large producers contribute as their fair share of corporate income taxes, and creating a Department of Energy to bring Alaska’s energy operations under one roof rather than scattering them across agencies.
Alaska holds enduring advantages in global energy markets: political stability, established regulatory systems and long-term production potential. These strengths give the state leverage in how it structures its fiscal framework.
This is about more than fuel prices. It is about whether Alaska can generate stable, long-term revenue to grow an economy that will sustain its population.
In recent years, the state has faced ongoing challenges in funding education, maintaining infrastructure and retaining residents. At the same time, a significant share of the value generated from resource extraction does not remain in state.
That imbalance should concern all of us. The resource-based fiscal solutions outlined above are part of a comprehensive plan that can address that imbalance.
Alaska should not be a place where resources are extracted, profits leave and communities are left to manage the consequences.
If nothing changes, the pattern is likely to continue: Prices rise, Alaskans pay more and the long-term challenges persist.
Alaska has the resources, the position and the leverage to get our fair share and invest in its future. I have a plan to do it. No more excuses. Let’s get it done.
Tom Begich is a former Alaska state senator, a small-business owner and a candidate for governor of Alaska. He has worked with communities across the state on education, energy policy and juvenile justice.
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Alaska wildlife agents can resume shooting and killing black and brown bears — including from helicopters — as part of a plan to help recover a caribou herd that was once an important source of food for Alaska Native hunters, a judge ruled Wednesday.
Two conservation groups, the Alaska Wildlife Alliance and Center for Biological Diversity, sought to halt the program while their lawsuit challenging its legality plays out. But Superior Court Judge Adolf Zeman said the groups had failed to show that the state acted without a reasonable basis for approving the plan.
The timing of the ruling is important: The Mulchatna caribou herd in southwest Alaska is expected to begin calving soon. The babies are particularly susceptible to being eaten by bears or wolves.
State officials see the bear-killing program as important to helping the caribou herd recover. The herd, which once provided up to about 4,770 caribou a year for subsistence hunters from dozens of communities, peaked at around 190,000 animals.
But the caribou population began declining in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and by 2019 numbered around 13,000 animals. Last year, the population was estimated around 16,280, according to the state Department of Fish and Game. Hunting has not been allowed since 2021.
The state killed 180 bears from 2023 to 2024, most of them brown bears, plus 11 more last year, according to the conservation groups’ lawsuit. According to the Alaska Wildlife Alliance, 99 bears, including 20 cubs, were killed by the state from the air in less than a month in 2023.
The groups argue that the Alaska Board of Game last year authorized reinstating the program without key data on the bears’ population numbers and sustainability.
Cooper Freeman, Alaska director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement the groups want to see the caribou herd thrive, “but the state simply hasn’t shown that the unrestrained killing of bears is going to help us get there.”
“We need to stop this disgraceful waste of the state’s limited resources and work based on science to protect all our wildlife,” Freeman said.
State attorneys have said that officials took a “hard look” at factors related to bear numbers in adopting the plan. Alaska is home to an estimated 100,000 black bears and 30,000 brown bears.
“The herd has persisted at low numbers but started showing a positive response since 2023, when bear removal during calving seasons began,” they wrote in a court filing.
The Alaska Department of Law welcomed Zeman’s decision “to allow this management program to continue during the upcoming caribou calving season, a crucial time for herd recovery,” spokesperson Sam Curtis said by email. The department represents the board and Department of Fish and Game.
“Continuing this program makes sense in light of the scientific record,” Curtis said.
Attorneys with Trustees for Alaska, representing the conservation groups, are reviewing the ruling and “will consider all available options,” spokesperson Madison Grosvenor said by email.
The program has been the subject of ongoing litigation. A judge last year, in a case previously brought by the Alaska Wildlife Alliance, found fault with the process in which it was adopted and concluded the state lacked data on bear sustainability.
Emergency regulations implemented by the state were later struck down. A subsequent public process was announced surrounding plans to reauthorize the program, which the board did last July.
According to the Alaska Wildlife Association, a group of state biologists in 2020 determined that the main reasons for the herd’s decline were disease and a lack of food and “bear predation isn’t even in the top three identified causes of mortality among the Mulchatna herd.”
“We are concerned that big game management in Alaska has become a process whereby population objectives for wild ungulates are established based on public demand rather than on habitat capacity, promoting unsustainable management,” the alliance says in a position paper.
The Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport has reached new heights, becoming the largest cargo hub in the U.S. last year.
It may be a first for the Anchorage airport, based on historical data from the Airports Council International.
The ascendance is based partly on the airport’s steady growth in cargo volume landed there in recent years, according to figures from the group.
It came even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs upended global trade patterns, the group’s latest rankings show.
A key part of the rise? The state’s strategic perch near much of the industrialized world.
But perhaps more important in the latest figures was the large decline in cargo volume at the Memphis International Airport last year.
The FedEx superhub has long been the dominant cargo airport in the U.S., and sometimes the world. But FedEx has restructured its operations, contributing to the airport’s drop in cargo volume.
That helped the Anchorage airport leapfrog past Memphis last year.
With 3.9 million tons of cargo landed, Anchorage was behind only the Hong Kong and Shanghai airports, globally.
In recent years in particular, the Anchorage airport has become a critical crossroads for aviation shippers, in part due to the increase in e-commerce packages moving between Asia and the U.S.
Carriers often drop into Anchorage to refuel, allowing them to haul more of their valuable payload, and less fuel traveling between continents.
“Aircraft can reach 90% of the industrialized world within 9 1/2 hours from the airport,” said Teri Lindseth, the airport’s development manager, in an interview Friday.
Also important is the “targeted effort by the airport development team and the (Alaska) Department of Transportation to expand Anchorage’s cargo presence and overall airport development,” she said. “We’ve focused on supporting our existing partners at the airlines, creating opportunities for growth, and we’re seeing that strategy pay off.”
Over 30 cargo carriers using the airport have helped boost those numbers, Lindseth said.
Some of the carriers have significantly increased their cargo landings in Anchorage last year, she said, including China Airlines and Taiwan-based EVA Air Cargo, and Kalitta Air and Atlas Air, based in the U.S., she said.
Greg Wolf, head of the Alaska International Business Center, said that the airport has done a good job marketing the benefits of the Alaska route to cargo carriers.
The extra cargo each jet can carry as it lands in Anchorage helps give extra oomph to the numbers, compared to other airports, he said.
The Anchorage airport’s rise to first place came as Alaska reached its highest-ever volume in foreign exports, at $6.7 billion, Wolf said.
Some of that product moved by air, adding to the airport’s cargo numbers, he said.
And while Trump has slapped extra-high tariffs on China, Alaska exports still traveled there, apparently after first reaching other Asian countries with lower tariffs before making their way to China, Wolf said.
Alaska’s export value to China fell to fourth last year — behind Korea, Australia and Japan — though it’s typically been the state’s top export partner.
“I’ve talked to businesses, not just from Alaska, but other American businesses, and they’ve done their best to work around the tariffs,” he said.
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